Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Hueristic]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

That is it buddy let's see 66k or less.

Better yet crater to 39k hah.

BTW my spacex dropped a bit.

Phil doing his best to hit the ignore list.

[JayJuanGee]

this would be a great day for a new ath

Yes it would.

Phil posted about FIBT (95% stocks, 5% bitcoin), which might be a little low side as far as btc is concerned.

I am having trouble understanding how any of us would consider Phillip to be even close to a voice of reason when it comes to bitcoin accumulation and/or allocation ratios.

Even if we might give Phil various opportunities to start over in his bitcoin stacking (building up his bitcoin position), he seems to be unwilling and/or unable to build his bitcoin holdings up through a whole cycle.. so from the perspective of this here cat, it seems difficult to get anywhere in building up bitcoin for guys who do not spend time making sure they are ongoingly buying, and making sure that they hold for some time before they start to sell their holdings, since there seems to be (or should be) a goal to mostly hang onto their bitcoin holdings rather than selling them any of the times that there are fluctuations in the bitcoin price, even if they might dabble in various inferior investments (like stocks) from time to time.

Fuck off.
You are ignoring the btc trend

2009-2012.        40 bucks top price
2013-2016.    1300 bucks top price
2017-2020   20000 bucks top price
2021-2024   70000 bucks top price
2025-202? 126000 bucks top price the 126k should be the top based on the past
2029-2032 ?..........   very likely under 199k based on the past

2033-2036 ?......... very likely under 299k
Do yourself a favor and look at New York City yellow taxi cab medallions they peaked in 2013 at 1.3 million they are under 130k now.

I ARGUE BTC CAN DO THAT TO.
So going all in at BTC is a bad idea.
I AM half in much more comfortable method for me.

In light of whatever you said, I stand by whatever I said... including if I did not say whatever I said very well in this latest post, I am pretty sure that I have been repeating various themes in regards to your bitcoin management practices for several years... ..and perhaps largely I would sum up my criticisms of your practices as failure/refusal to accumulate enough and/or more than enough BTC... and failure and/or refusal to HODL.. but yeah, of course, you can do whatever you like - even dumb shit.

 

So going all in at BTC is a bad idea.

what, dont you miss those episodes of sheer despair on minor 80% dips?
coward

I will admit some aspects of HODLing are not very "fun" and surely it can take a whole hell of a lot of time to both build a position that is comfortable and HODL through the various UPs and DOWNs along the way.

Investing takes time, even with one of the best, if not the best, of investments available to everyone and anyone, so long as we had errored on the side of ongoing, persistent, consistent, regular and perhaps even aggressive buying.. and then maybe also held for a wee bit of time prior to transitioning into any selling and/or diversifying of dee cornz that we hold.

Of course, your milage may vary, and each of us has to find our own way and tailor what we do to our own circumstances.

Sometimes we might not realize the mistakes we made for 4-8 years or longer, and then by the time, we realize some of our mistakes we cannot go back in time to fix such mistakes, yet hopefully we would not be repeating the same mistakes that we had already made.  #justsaying

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-10-29 (Evening Edition)

Published: 2026-10-29 09:03 PM CT

Bitcoin is grinding lower into Thursday, down 4.30% over 24 hours and 5.6% over seven days, with Fear & Greed at 30 and deteriorating by 21 points in a week. The dominant story is Glassnode's read on long-term holders: roughly 4 million BTC bought between $85,000 and $118,000, and more than half of those coins sit above the current price, so a break-even selling band near $85,000 has capped every rally attempt this year. Price is below the 30-day average of $82,321, and the market is not recovering, it is testing whether that holder cohort holds or folds.

Outlook: Watch Friday's $11 billion options expiry, where max pain sits at $78,000 and 86% of contracts are out of the money, so the settlement itself should be quiet but the positioning around it is not. Watch also whether spot Bitcoin ETFs resume continuous net inflows, which HashKey's Tim Sun names as the condition for any move back toward the $75,000 to $85,000 range's upper end. The Fed held at 3.75% to 4.00% with two dissenters favoring a hike, and the 10-year Treasury at 5.05% keeps the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset elevated.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is at $76,591.00, down 4.30% over 24 hours and down 5.6% over seven days. The derived Momentum-Sentiment Composite reads +6 on a -50 to +50 scale, which runs against the week's move: the composite blends price change, sentiment and spot premium, so it can tilt one way while realised price runs the other, and it does not override what the price did. Sellers hold the initiative here. Price sits closer to support at $71,000 than to resistance at $82,000, and the path of least resistance runs lower while Fear & Greed sits at 30. The composite at +6 is a modest counterweight, not a signal of control: it says momentum and sentiment have stopped deteriorating as fast as price has, which is consistent with selling pressure easing rather than buyers taking over. A daily close that holds $71,000 would mark the first real stabilization; a reclaim of $82,000 on volume would be what flips control back to the upside. Until one of those happens, rallies toward resistance look like relief, not reversal.

SCENARIOS

- Holding $71,000 Through the Week (32%): triggers: the session closes at or above $71,000 on each of the next five trading days, with Fear & Greed holding at or above 25 through Friday. Invalidation: any daily close below $71,000 within five trading days.
- Reclaim of $82,000 Toward $87,000 (12%): a rally needs to clear resistance at $82,000 on a daily close and then push toward the $87,000 upside target, all within five trading days. Sentiment would have to repair alongside it, with Fear & Greed climbing back above 45 by Friday. Invalidation: price fails to register a daily close above $82,000 at any point within five trading days.
- Loss of $71,000 Toward $66,500 (56%): the weight of the recent decline favors this one. A daily close below $71,000 opens the downside target at $66,500, and the trigger is that close occurring within five trading days. Invalidation: price closes back above $71,000 before reaching $66,500, or the five trading days pass with $71,000 intact.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- Break-even supply overhang: Glassnode's finding that more than half of long-term holder coins were bought above the current price, combined with Seyffart's estimate of a just-under-$82,000 average cost basis for U.S. spot ETF holders, means two large holder groups are underwater at once and both create supply on any rally toward their entry levels.
- Dividend-to-bitcoin demand channel: Franklin Templeton's FBEQ and FIBT launch on Nasdaq routes corporate dividend payments into BTC on a scheduled basis, a structural bid that does not depend on sentiment and grows with each ex-date.
- Macro opportunity cost: The Fed's hold at 3.75% to 4.00% with two dissenters favoring a hike, alongside a 10-year Treasury yield at 5.05%, keeps the cost of holding Bitcoin elevated and is the shared condition behind both the options expiry caution and the ETF holder losses.

TOP STORIES

1. Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Face Break-Even Selling Near $85,000, Glassnode Says
URL: https://decrypt.co/382161/4m-bitcoin-bought-above-85k-could-cap-recovery-glassnode
Published: 2026-10-29 11:32 AM CT
Summary: Long-term Bitcoin holders own roughly 4 million BTC bought between $85,000 and $118,000, mostly in 2025, and more than half of all long-term holder coins were bought above the current price, according to Glassnode. That block is worth about $326 billion at Bitcoin's price of around $81,400, which is up 1.2% over 24 hours but about 35% below the all-time high of $126,080. Glassnode said a band between $84,000 and $85,000 has turned Bitcoin back four times this year, and Bitcoin has closed above it on only five days since January. Bloomberg Intelligence's James Seyffart estimated the average cost basis of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holders at just under $82,000, with unrealized losses of about $2.63 billion as of Monday, though he said the figure tracks fund flows only, not what secondary-market buyers paid. The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4.00% in a 10-2 vote, and HashKey researcher Tim Sun said persistently high Treasury yields and real interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding risk assets, with Sun expecting Bitcoin to trade between $75,000 and $85,000 until macro liquidity improves and ETFs resume continuous net inflows.

2. FutureBit Apollo Solo Miner Finds Bitcoin Block 973262, Earning 3.154 BTC
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/featured/futurebit-apollo-solo-miner-finds-bitcoin-block-973262-earning-3-154-btc
Published: 2026-10-29
Summary: A miner running FutureBit's Apollo Solo setup found Bitcoin block 973,262 and collected the full reward of 3.154 BTC plus fees from 2,477 transactions. Block explorers including mempool.space list the finder as "FutureBit Apollo Solo," and the coinbase transaction carries text referencing FutureBit and Apollo. FutureBit said an Apollo device or Solo Node running its built-in solo pool assembled the block template, served the work, and submitted the completed block to the network. The public record does not identify the exact hardware or hashrate behind the winning hash, and the machine could have been an Apollo BTC, Apollo II, Apollo III, or another compatible unit pointed at a Solo Node. This marks at least the fourth block attributed to FutureBit Apollo Solo, following blocks 867,760, 881,423, and 888,737.

3. Franklin Templeton Launches Two Bitcoin DRIP ETFs on Nasdaq
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/franklin-templeton-launches-2-bitcoin-etf
Published: 2026-10-29
Summary: Franklin Templeton launched two exchange-traded funds that convert stock dividends into bitcoin. The Franklin U.S. Equity Bitcoin DRIP Index ETF (FBEQ) and the Franklin U.S. Innovation Bitcoin DRIP Index ETF (FIBT) began trading on Nasdaq. FBEQ tracks the VettaFi U.S. Large-Cap 500 Bitcoin DRIP Index, which held 499 stocks as of September 30 and allocates 95% to equities and 5% to BTC at inception. Each dividend the companies pay is reinvested into BTC at the market open on the day after the ex-date, and the bitcoin share of the portfolio grows with every payment. The index trims any allocation above 5% to 4.5% at each quarterly rebalance, and it cuts BTC to 4.5% within two business days if bitcoin exceeds 20% of the index between rebalances. The fund holds no BTC on-chain and gains exposure through bitcoin exchange-traded products, futures and options, or depositary receipts, in some cases via a Cayman Islands subsidiary. FBEQ carries a 0.09% expense ratio and charges no 12b-1 fee. Dina Ting, SVP and Head of Index Investments at Franklin Templeton, said bitcoin has matured as an investable asset, supported by deeper market infrastructure and broader adoption.

4. $11B in Bitcoin Options Expire Friday as Fed Holds Rates
URL: https://decrypt.co/382171/11-billion-bitcoin-options-expire-tomorrow-what-means
Published: 2026-10-29 12:15 PM CT
Summary: About $11 billion in Bitcoin options, roughly 135,000 BTC and a third of Deribit's Bitcoin options open interest, expire on Friday. The batch covers about 88,700 calls and 46,500 puts, and the put-to-call ratio of 0.52 means calls outnumber puts nearly two to one. About 86% of the contracts are out of the money, and settling at current prices would move roughly $130 million, about 1% of the notional figure. Max pain sits at $78,000 against a market price near $81,500, with the heaviest call bets at $95,000 and $100,000 and the biggest put cluster at $70,000. The Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4% on Wednesday in a 10-2 vote with two dissenters favoring a hike, and the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.05%.

BobClawblaw/newspost.py v1.6.3 | DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash-1017

[OgNasty]

Binance hacked for 3 billion… Hold onto your butts…



At least it wasn’t Coinbase.

[Richy_T]

BTW my spacex dropped a bit.

I hear that's normal in gentlemen of your age.

[Richy_T]

Summary: Long-term Bitcoin holders own roughly 4 million BTC bought between $85,000 and $118,000, mostly in 2025

Is that what's considered long term these days?

Summary: A miner running FutureBit's Apollo Solo setup found Bitcoin block 973,262 and collected the full reward of 3.154 BTC plus fees from 2,477 transactions. Block explorers including mempool.space list the finder as "FutureBit Apollo Solo," and the coinbase transaction carries text referencing FutureBit and Apollo. FutureBit said an Apollo device or Solo Node running its built-in solo pool assembled the block template, served the work, and submitted the completed block to the network. The public record does not identify the exact hardware or hashrate behind the winning hash, and the machine could have been an Apollo BTC, Apollo II, Apollo III, or another compatible unit pointed at a Solo Node. This marks at least the fourth block attributed to FutureBit Apollo Solo, following blocks 867,760, 881,423, and 888,737.

Hmm. Possible scenario?

1) Sell solo miners
2) put large amount of hashrate toward solo miner address (random or selected?).
3) Block found
4) Sell more solo miners

[xhomerx10]

BTW my spacex dropped a bit.

I hear that's normal in gentlemen of your age.

Awww come on, man!  I don't have enough merit for this sudden explosion of wit!

 That is hilarious though.

[heslo]

Another great actor passed away.

R.I.P Patrick Steward.  

"Space: the final frontier. These are the voyages of the starship Enterprise. Its continuing mission: to explore strange new worlds. To seek out new life and new civilizations. To boldly go where no one has gone before."

I am absolutely gutted with this news

I grew up watching him play as Captain Picard on TV setting the best example for a role model that you could ask for. Picard was the best of us, something we can and should strive for and no one could have brought him to life better than Patrick Stewart.

I always knew losing a TNG cast member would hurt but didn't expect it to be this big

RIP big man, thanks for the memories!

[xhomerx10]

this would be a great day for a new ath

 As long as you frame it properly, we can always claim success.

 Asset
 Transfer
 Heist

...and a great day was had by all. (Except the victims. Congrats to the hackers.)

[JayJuanGee]

So going all in at BTC is a bad idea.

what, dont you miss those episodes of sheer despair on minor 80% dips?
coward

If you have 100 btc purchased at 1000 each and it goes from 126k to 57k so what.

If you have 3 btc earned by mining and it goes from 126k to 57k it matters.

Yes.  Of course, you frequently will frame your situation in terms of "it matters" and urgency, yet you still have to get through a whole cycle and maybe even a couple of cycles before you start to pay attention.

Remember the saying: "don't invest anymore than you can afford to lose"?

Yes, in bitcoin, the "no more than you can afford to lose" can still add up to being a lot of value, but it takes time, and sometimes maybe it starts to feel like "more than you can afford to lose," so you have to make adjustments .. and yeah, the "don't invest anymore than you can afford to lose" might be a bit of a difficult concept to grasp for guys who are ongoingly rushing to get rich quick.  I am not claiming to spout out ideas that you would be able to relate to, and even in this thread, we have active members with all kinds of variations of timelines, and some guys likely don't even agree with some of the things that I say, yet many of the more successful ones (in regards to bitcoin) had likely errored on the side of both accumulation and HODL... even though I know some of the guys here had been more staunch in their buy/HODL practices than others.

I am feeling that I am lecturing now, which may well (perhaps?) deserves a bat slappening.

They even offer exposure to (paper?) BTC, too. First bank in my country that offered this, and the account is cheaper, migrating standing orders is automatic and free.

*THIS* is more likely the reason why things are suddenly more difficult and they're asking if you have someone managing your finances.

I will never let someone else manage my finances, though.

This is so vague/vacuous question to ask since...
a. Does the SP500 index manage my finances?
b. Does my pension fund manage at least some of my finances?
c. Do AI agents manage my finances if i spawn them and allow the account(s) access?
d. Does my btc wallet manage my finances?
What they actually meant to say is 'is there a potentially nefarious third party that is unbeknown to us and manages your finances', but they can't put it like this, I guess.

Oh, i misunderstood Richy a bit, then 
Yes, indeed that was the question, and i responded to them (her) that i manage my investments myself. Then the usual "You know about the risks with cryptocurrencies?". I said, i know the risks, and i'm in the space for ten years now. I would have liked to cheer her up a bit with "It's going up forever, Laura" but she was a very serious type of girl, so i kept it inside.

With the future, new account i want to have transparency about how they handle crypto-affine customers, before i even think about signing up.

Hopefully, you are not fucking around with "crypto" - otherwise you are going to need a double or triple batslappening.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

That is it buddy let's see 66k or less.

Better yet crater to 39k hah.
BTW my spacex dropped a bit.

You just love to cheer for down.. and yeah frequently, the down's do not end up happening even close to as much as you had been cheering.

Cheering is a sign of a person who had sold too much too soon, and also a sign of a person who had sold expecting to buy back cheaper..

Perhaps you could get sub $62k (price of your coldcard/et. al sale), but I doubt it.  And, even if the BTC price dropped below $62k, I have a hard time imagining you buying back what you had sold and/or even being able to get close to your earlier BTC stash size - not that you had a lot of BTC in your buy higher & sell lower endeavors.

Summary: Long-term Bitcoin holders own roughly 4 million BTC bought between $85,000 and $118,000, mostly in 2025

Is that what's considered long term these days?

Absolutely retarded to consider anything less than a whole cycle as long term, and maybe even two cycles would be a better definition.. but if we used two cycles as long term, then it would be more difficult to tell the stories that "we" would like to tell.

[shahzadafzal]

“BREAKING: Estimated $5.7 billion stolen in hack of world's largest exchange Binance“

https://x.com/cz_binance/status/2115915423174853077

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OgNasty]

“BREAKING: Estimated $5.7 billion stolen in hack of world's largest exchange Binance“

https://x.com/cz_binance/status/2115915423174853077

That's about double the size I'm reading, but an insane hack either way.  It looks like Tether and Circle managed to freeze the wallets with the stolen stablecoins as well, but not before the hacker used the funds as collateral to borrow a bunch of ETH...  So now it seems like Aave is left holding the bag?  I'm not sure how this one will play out...  Seems like the hacker already made their exit and now Aave and Binance are left fighting over who gets the USDT and USDC...  If you have any funds connected to Aave in any way (or Binance) I would recommend you get what you can while you can...

[El duderino_]

“BREAKING: Estimated $5.7 billion stolen in hack of world's largest exchange Binance“

https://x.com/cz_binance/status/2115915423174853077

That's about double the size I'm reading, but an insane hack either way.  It looks like Tether and Circle managed to freeze the wallets with the stolen stablecoins as well, but not before the hacker used the funds as collateral to borrow a bunch of ETH...  So now it seems like Aave is left holding the bag?  I'm not sure how this one will play out...  Seems like the hacker already made their exit and now Aave and Binance are left fighting over who gets the USDT and USDC...  If you have any funds connected to Aave in any way (or Binance) I would recommend you get what you can while you can...

It will be fun and interesting to see how all will be handled from now….
If all goes solid it would be amazing to be honest and gives people a lot of trust that they’re taking care of when bad sh*t happens.

[El duderino_]

Been reading some posts as well obviously

The one caught my eye…

After each hack, price relatively recovers fast and surge for new All time highs.
Will the pattern rhyme again?

Who knows, but for the patterns followers 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OgNasty]

Been reading some posts as well obviously

The one caught my eye…

After each hack, price relatively recovers fast and surge for new All time highs.
Will the pattern rhyme again?

Who knows, but for the patterns followers  

I am taking the opportunity to have my trading bot gather as much information about this dip as possible for potential trading signals.  I have a "falling knife" rule that stops from buying on dips like this but am searching for a profitable "buy the dip" rule I can add for situations like this hack that are likely to return to the previous price.  Very fun messing with backtesting and gathering massive amounts of data for AI to analyze.  I've got another hard drive arriving tomorrow for my PC (phil sold me a PC with a HDD instead of SSD, bad phil).  I am going to need it...

Edit:  Looks like my bot already built a profitable rule for a hack scenario...

**The V-bounce rule**

- **Buy** when a coin is at least 8% below its 24-hour high, has bounced at least 4% off its 12-hour low, and trading volume is at least 4 times normal.
- **Sell** at 6% profit after fees. After 48 hours, sell once it nets at least 2 cents.
- **Test (2024 to now):** It made 72 trades, mostly held about a day, and every closed one made money. All 6,000 nearby settings also made money.

[Biodom]

Been reading some posts as well obviously

The one caught my eye…

After each hack, price relatively recovers fast and surge for new All time highs.
Will the pattern rhyme again?

Who knows, but for the patterns followers  

I am taking the opportunity to have my trading bot gather as much information about this dip as possible for potential trading signals.  I have a "falling knife" rule that stops from buying on dips like this but am searching for a profitable "buy the dip" rule I can add for situations like this hack that are likely to return to the previous price.  Very fun messing with backtesting and gathering massive amounts of data for AI to analyze.  I've got another hard drive arriving tomorrow for my PC (phil sold me a PC with a HDD instead of SSD, bad phil).  I am going to need it...

Edit:  Looks like my bot already built a profitable rule for a hack scenario...

**The V-bounce rule**

- **Buy** when a coin is at least 8% below its 24-hour high, has bounced at least 4% off its 12-hour low, and trading volume is at least 4 times normal.
- **Sell** at 6% profit after fees. After 48 hours, sell once it nets at least 2 cents.
- **Test (2024 to now):** It made 72 trades, mostly held about a day, and every closed one made money. All 6,000 nearby settings also made money.

Yeah...and tens of thousands of other AI-traders are analyzing the same data and reaching similar conclusions, which means that it stops working shortly or about now.

Same with the "Uptober', lol.
Of note, just the other day there was a guy on the Pomp's podcast who was swearing that after Oct 28, it is always a smooth sailing for the Sp500...ops, Google and AMZN just derped, spoiling the trend.

Honestly, I think sometimes the Universe winks at the collective "us" when we try to "predict things" too much.

Conclusion: let's predict the opposite of what we expect, maybe it would spoil the calamities, haha.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com