Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[OgNasty]

Yeah...and tens of thousands of other AI-traders are analyzing the same data and reaching similar conclusions, which means that it stops working shortly or about now.

Same with the "Uptober', lol.
Of note, just the other day there was a guy on the Pomp's podcast who was swearing that after Oct 28, it is always a smooth sailing for the Sp500...ops, Google and AMZN just derped, spoiling the trend.

Honestly, I think sometimes the Universe winks at the collective "us" when we try to "predict things" too much.

Conclusion: let's predict the opposite of what we expect, maybe it would spoil the calamities, haha.

AI is a great tool that can help us, but it acts very differently depending on who is pulling the strings...  For example, I simulated centuries of trading data that NO OTHER PERSON on earth has.  So nobody's bot will come to the same conclusions as mine.  I also have more than 60 trading rules in place all working together with more being added and customized every day.  The odds of someone coming up with the same trading rules is not even worth contemplating not to mention AI traders are still probably less than 0.01% of market trades so the idea that they are moving markets is ridiculous.  Even the rule I just posted is currently being backtested with several variations on my custom data...  AI isn't some magic tool that you say trade and make me money and it does.  You still have to build things and know what you're doing.  You should give it a try.  Maybe you'll learn a better way to trade than, "predict the opposite of what we expect."

We are in a time period where companies are burning money like crazy to try and be the one that wins the AI race.  Anthropic burned 80 billion dollars in the first half of the year...  I think we are in a period where AI popularity will grow and prices will rise until these companies are making money instead of burning 10s of billions per month.  In other words, you are able to get $5,000 a month in AI compute for $200 right now and shareholders are footing the bill.  Take advantage.

Edit: Backtesting results against my data are in and it suggested this addition to the previously posted rule in order to have caught today's dip while profiting in more trading windows and eliminating loss windows over the previous rule alone: **S1-hack** buys at 6% below the 24-hour high instead of 8%, but only on a volume spike of at least 8 times normal, double what the live rule needs.

[Richy_T]

Yeah...and tens of thousands of other AI-traders are analyzing the same data and reaching similar conclusions, which means that it stops working shortly or about now.

I wish I could remember the name of the story or even the author (I think it might have been Clarke) but I read a short story in the 80s about a guy who created a computer that could model the stock market completely. When he put it to work, he started making money but the effect of the machine itself on the stock market, given that it could precisely model the stock market led to chaos. I forget exactly how it ended (that may even have been the end or possibly with the markets crashed).

[Richy_T]

We are in a time period where companies are burning money like crazy to try and be the one that wins the AI race.  Anthropic burned 80 billion dollars in the first half of the year...  I think we are in a period where AI popularity will grow and prices will rise until these companies are making money instead of burning 10s of billions per month.  In other words, you are able to get $5,000 a month in AI compute for $200 right now and shareholders are footing the bill.  Take advantage.

This is a fair point. I don't know how much longer it is before the pigeons come home to roost though.

Edit: Backtesting results against my data are in and it suggested this addition to the previously posted rule in order to have caught today's dip while profiting in more trading windows and eliminating loss windows over the previous rule alone: **S1-hack** buys at 6% below the 24-hour high instead of 8%, but only on a volume spike of at least 8 times normal, double what the live rule needs.

The problem with that method is you end up with survivor syndrome. It's always possible to make a model fit historic data but that doesn't mean it will be successful at predicting the future. The failure of the more hysterical climate models are a good example.

But more to Biodom's point, you are up against people who are willing and able to drop 7 or 8 figures into their projects and will be employing teams of analysts to train their AIs. Not only that, they will have access to data with a timeliness not available to regular people. I say this not to deter you from trying, because it sounds like you're having fun, but more to add a note of caution. I guess it's like escaping a bear though. You just have to run faster than your slowest friend. So you just have to be on average better than the bad traders by enough of a margin.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OgNasty]

But more to Biodom's point, you are up against people who are willing and able to drop 7 or 8 figures into their projects and will be employing teams of analysts to train their AIs. Not only that, they will have access to data with a timeliness not available to regular people. I say this not to deter you from trying, because it sounds like you're having fun, but more to add a note of caution. I guess it's like escaping a bear though. You just have to run faster than your slowest friend. So you just have to be on average better than the bad traders by enough of a margin.

I definitely couldn’t compete with high frequency traders and front runners or even arbitrage traders. I have a friend who does that and the amount of money he spends on his internet connection alone is more than I would be willing to invest. That’s why I’m focusing on a set of unique trading rules. It is really more of an active portfolio manager than a profit trader. For me, it is a great learning experience. I don’t mean to force AI on people though so perhaps a new topic is in order.

Elon just commented on the Binance hack…

“Super intelligence agents will at some point do this to gain currency for themselves, not a human”

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Danish Ali]

Another great actor passed away.

R.I.P Patrick Steward.  

"Space: the final frontier. These are the voyages of the starship Enterprise. Its continuing mission: to explore strange new worlds. To seek out new life and new civilizations. To boldly go where no one has gone before."

I am absolutely gutted with this news

I grew up watching him play as Captain Picard on TV setting the best example for a role model that you could ask for. Picard was the best of us, something we can and should strive for and no one could have brought him to life better than Patrick Stewart.

I always knew losing a TNG cast member would hurt but didn't expect it to be this big

RIP big man, thanks for the memories!

He gave us two unforgettable characters. RIP, Sir Patrick.

"There are four lights!"

[Paashaas]

I wanna add my sincere congratulations to everybody here not being dismembered from scams ore hacks in all those years while being an active Bitcoin holder.


What a ride, isn’t it?

[LoyceV]

“BREAKING: Estimated $5.7 billion stolen in hack of world's largest exchange Binance“

Every time again, I'm surprised by the amount of money they keep in hot wallets. Do they really have regular withdrawals that justify such amounts and can't have someone who withdraws a billion in crypto wait a bit for manual cold wallet approval?

Just last week:

Two days ago, there was a security incident at the Dutch exchange Bitonic. It's the oldest Dutch exchange.
Today, Bitonic's CEO talked about it in BNR's Cryptocast. The hackers used a vulnerability in their PDF document upload, and withdrew small amounts of Bitcoin from 3 accounts. Total amount stolen: €200.

[OutOfMemory]

“BREAKING: Estimated $5.7 billion stolen in hack of world's largest exchange Binance“

Every time again, I'm surprised by the amount of money they keep in hot wallets. Do they really have regular withdrawals that justify such amounts and can't have someone who withdraws a billion in crypto wait a bit for manual cold wallet approval?

Just last week:

Two days ago, there was a security incident at the Dutch exchange Bitonic. It's the oldest Dutch exchange.
Today, Bitonic's CEO talked about it in BNR's Cryptocast. The hackers used a vulnerability in their PDF document upload, and withdrew small amounts of Bitcoin from 3 accounts. Total amount stolen: €200.

A Binance hot wallet was drained via EIP-7702 and about $2.8B moved out.

11 hours old news.
Wait, what is EIP-7702?
A short www search revealed: Ethereum and smart contracts. Again?!  
So Bitcoin doesn't care?

The bad news is that the SAFU fund of Binance is held in BTC, so there may be a greater dip coming.
Second, if the SAFU doesn't cover all the losses, Binance will likely see a lot of sells and outflows.
This may be the dip everbody waited for, no?

EDIT: In other news: $5,8 Billion stolen in "crypto". Has anyone found info on which crypto(s)?

Attack vector is said to have been a stolen laptop from a tech.
Know the old saying? The worst error is the one that sits in front of the screen? 

[LoyceV]

Wait, what is EIP-7702?
A short www search revealed: Ethereum and smart contracts. Again?!  

Ever since "The DAO", it was obvious to me "smart contracts" are pointless if it means trusting something you don't understand. The only one who understood the contract, was called "the attacker". I don't even get why people kept trusting and hyping that centralized shitcoin after it abandoned their USP "code is law".

EDIT: In other news: $5,8 Billion stolen in "crypto". Has anyone found info on which crypto(s)?

From the news I've seen, it's a few billion in stable coins, which are frozen already because they're completely centralized.

Attack vector is said to have been a stolen laptop from a tech.
Know the old saying? The worst error is the one that sits in front of the screen? 

The worst error was giving a single laptop access to crypto worth billions.

[OutOfMemory]

Wait, what is EIP-7702?
A short www search revealed: Ethereum and smart contracts. Again?!  

Ever since "The DAO", it was obvious to me "smart contracts" are pointless if it means trusting something you don't understand. The only one who understood the contract, was called "the attacker". I don't even get why people kept trusting and hyping that centralized shitcoin after it abandoned their USP "code is law".

EDIT: In other news: $5,8 Billion stolen in "crypto". Has anyone found info on which crypto(s)?

From the news I've seen, it's a few billion in stable coins, which are frozen already because they're completely centralized.

From what i have found so far, i could not tell if the 2 billions were included in the $5.8$5.7bn.

Attack vector is said to have been a stolen laptop from a tech.
Know the old saying? The worst error is the one that sits in front of the screen?  

The worst error was giving a single laptop access to crypto worth billions.

Without further (or with too weak) security measures.

[goldkingcoiner]

Wait, what is EIP-7702?
A short www search revealed: Ethereum and smart contracts. Again?!  

Ever since "The DAO", it was obvious to me "smart contracts" are pointless if it means trusting something you don't understand. The only one who understood the contract, was called "the attacker". I don't even get why people kept trusting and hyping that centralized shitcoin after it abandoned their USP "code is law".

EDIT: In other news: $5,8 Billion stolen in "crypto". Has anyone found info on which crypto(s)?

From the news I've seen, it's a few billion in stable coins, which are frozen already because they're completely centralized.

Attack vector is said to have been a stolen laptop from a tech.
Know the old saying? The worst error is the one that sits in front of the screen?  

The worst error was giving a single laptop access to crypto worth billions.

I would say the attack vector was probably CZ. He has been involved in a lot of shady stuff and this whole "got hacked because of a single laptop" story does not really seem realistic to me.

Another day of not your keys, not your coins.

The far more suprising and sad news for me is that Patrick Stewart died.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ESG]

---

BTW my spacex dropped a bit.

oH NO Phil...>>>
"
JUST IN: CZ says Binance may use its over

 $1 billion stake in Elon Musk's SpaceX $SPCX

to cover losses following major hack.  = Watcher.Guru
"

------------------------#
Hackers stole over $6 billion in cryptocurrency on Thursday, shattering the record for the largest such heist as multiple investigators pointed the finger at North Korea.>
>https://edition.cnn.com/2026/10/30/tech/binance-crypto-heist-hnk-intl

[OgNasty]

---

BTW my spacex dropped a bit.

oH NO Phil...>>>
"
JUST IN: CZ says Binance may use its over

 $1 billion stake in Elon Musk's SpaceX $SPCX

to cover losses following major hack.  = Watcher.Guru
"

------------------------#
Hackers stole over $6 billion in cryptocurrency on Thursday, shattering the record for the largest such heist as multiple investigators pointed the finger at North Korea.>
>https://edition.cnn.com/2026/10/30/tech/binance-crypto-heist-hnk-intl

Elon trolling CZ on X and then CZ threatening to sell a billion dollars worth of SpaceX stock if he doesn’t stop is hilarious.

https://x.com/cz_binance/status/2116097554882728341?a=uvCVIa-rtC0603f3f78&s=46

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Tuco Benedicto Pacifico]

“BREAKING: Estimated $5.7 billion stolen in hack of world's largest exchange Binance“

Every time again, I'm surprised by the amount of money they keep in hot wallets. Do they really have regular withdrawals that justify such amounts and can't have someone who withdraws a billion in crypto wait a bit for manual cold wallet approval?

Just last week:

Two days ago, there was a security incident at the Dutch exchange Bitonic. It's the oldest Dutch exchange.
Today, Bitonic's CEO talked about it in BNR's Cryptocast. The hackers used a vulnerability in their PDF document upload, and withdrew small amounts of Bitcoin from 3 accounts. Total amount stolen: €200.

A Binance hot wallet was drained via EIP-7702 and about $2.8B moved out.

11 hours old news.
Wait, what is EIP-7702?
A short www search revealed: Ethereum and smart contracts. Again?!  
So Bitcoin doesn't care?

The bad news is that the SAFU fund of Binance is held in BTC, so there may be a greater dip coming.
Second, if the SAFU doesn't cover all the losses, Binance will likely see a lot of sells and outflows.
This may be the dip everbody waited for, no?

EDIT: In other news: $5,8 Billion stolen in "crypto". Has anyone found info on which crypto(s)?

Attack vector is said to have been a stolen laptop from a tech.
Know the old saying? The worst error is the one that sits in front of the screen? 

According to Watcher.Guru:

"BREAKING: World's largest crypto exchange Binance hacked with over $5.6 billion stolen:

• $1.45 billion $BTC
• $875 million $ETH
• $234 million $TRX
• $50 million $XAUT
• $1.57 billion $USDT
• $823 million $USDC
• $75 million $WBETH
• $88.5 million $RLUSD
+ $447.5 million additional cryptocurrencies

This is the largest hack in crypto history."

https://twstalker.com/WatcherGuru/status/2115922259739349132

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

But more to Biodom's point, you are up against people who are willing and able to drop 7 or 8 figures into their projects and will be employing teams of analysts to train their AIs. Not only that, they will have access to data with a timeliness not available to regular people. I say this not to deter you from trying, because it sounds like you're having fun, but more to add a note of caution. I guess it's like escaping a bear though. You just have to run faster than your slowest friend. So you just have to be on average better than the bad traders by enough of a margin.

I definitely couldn’t compete with high frequency traders and front runners or even arbitrage traders. I have a friend who does that and the amount of money he spends on his internet connection alone is more than I would be willing to invest. That’s why I’m focusing on a set of unique trading rules. It is really more of an active portfolio manager than a profit trader. For me, it is a great learning experience. I don’t mean to force AI on people though so perhaps a new topic is in order.

Elon just commented on the Binance hack…

“Super intelligence agents will at some point do this to gain currency for themselves, not a human”

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/tether-circle-freeze-2-38-222607515.html?

it is up to 6.3 billion