Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[LoyceV]

Another day of not your keys, not your coins.

I've always been curious how well ETFs protect their Bitcoins. What if someone steals $50 billion there at some point?

[d_eddie]

Yeah...and tens of thousands of other AI-traders are analyzing the same data and reaching similar conclusions, which means that it stops working shortly or about now.

I wish I could remember the name of the story or even the author (I think it might have been Clarke) but I read a short story in the 80s about a guy who created a computer that could model the stock market completely. When he put it to work, he started making money but the effect of the machine itself on the stock market, given that it could precisely model the stock market led to chaos. I forget exactly how it ended (that may even have been the end or possibly with the markets crashed).

Robert Harris’s The Fear Index?

It's a novel though, not a short story, and it was written well after the 80's.

[Paashaas]

Largest hack in crypto history?

Bitcoin down 2% - 3% after this drama shows its strong resilience indicates the bottom.

What a coincidence -again- that every new bull starts with a major hack ore bankruptcy event like this.

[Danish Ali]

Hacktober 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

well so much for 39k or 66k

but wait a minute we have next weeks elections for yet another stress test.


When robinhood opens I will get some

Spacex
FIBT
FBEQ


thanks to Binance hack and threat of cashing out its spacex stock I will get a discount on it in about 18 minutes.

I will also still be mining away and stacking those coins

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-10-30 (Late Morning Edition)

Published: 2026-10-30 09:03 AM CT

Bitcoin is grinding lower into the weekend, down 4.5% over 24 hours and 5.3% over seven days, with Fear & Greed at 30 and deteriorating. The dominant story is Trezor's warning to CryptoBilis buyers to move funds after a suspected hardware implant, which lands on a market already below its 30-day average of $82,328. Friday's tape is defensive, not capitulative.

Outlook: Watch whether ETF inflows persist after three straight positive sessions totaling roughly $423.66 million, since that bid has been the main offset to spot selling. Also watch miner economics: difficulty rose 5.54% on Oct. 29 and hashprice, miners' revenue per petahash per day, has fallen to about $33, squeezing less efficient rigs.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is at $76,636.00, down 4.50% over 24 hours and down 5.3% over seven days. The derived Momentum-Sentiment Composite reads +6 on a -50 to +50 scale, which runs against the week's move: the composite blends price change, sentiment and spot premium, so it can tilt one way while realised price runs the other, and it does not override what the price did. Sellers hold the initiative here. Price sits closer to support at $71,500 than to resistance at $82,000, and the path of least resistance runs lower while Fear & Greed stays pinned at 30. The composite tilting positive while price falls is best read as a market that has stopped accelerating downward rather than one that has turned up; momentum and sentiment have stabilized, but the tape has not confirmed it. A daily close that holds $71,500 would mark the first real evidence that sellers have run out of urgency, while a reclaim of $82,000 is what would actually flip control back to buyers. Until one of those happens, rallies are suspect and the burden of proof sits with the bulls.

SCENARIOS

- Holding $71,500 Through Friday (32%): triggers: the session prints a daily close at or above $71,500 and Fear & Greed climbs off 30 toward neutral, which would signal the sell pressure is fading rather than intensifying. Invalidation: a daily close below $71,500 within five trading days.
- Reclaim of $82,000, Target $87,000 (12%): triggers: buyers absorb the current supply and drive a daily close above $82,000, opening the path toward the $87,000 upside target. Invalidation: a daily close back below $82,000 within five trading days.
- Loss of $71,500, Target $66,500 (56%): triggers: the current drift continues and a daily close lands below $71,500, which would confirm sellers still hold control and open the $66,500 downside target. Invalidation: a daily close back above $71,500 within five trading days.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- Trezor reseller fallout: Trezor removed CryptoBilis from its authorized reseller network earlier this month after tampered Ledger devices surfaced through the same distributor, and the new Safe 5 implant report extends that supply-chain concern to a second hardware vendor.
- Miner margin squeeze: Two October difficulty adjustments together cut expected earnings per unit of unchanged computing power by roughly 10.5%, and at 6 cents per kWh a 25 J/TH machine now runs a daily power bill of $36 against about $32.68 in gross revenue after pool fees.

TOP STORIES

1. Trezor Warns CryptoBilis Buyers to Move Funds After Suspected Hardware Implant
URL: https://www.theblock.co/news/ecosystems/2026-10-30-trezor-reports-suspected-hardware-implant-432196
Published: 2026-10-30 03:54 AM CT
Summary: Trezor urged customers who bought hardware wallets from reseller CryptoBilis since March 2026 to move their funds to a new wallet immediately. Trezor received a responsible disclosure on Oct. 28 alleging a physical hardware implant in a Safe 5 unit bought in August 2026 through Tokopedia. The reported implant is an extra circuit board fitted between the main board and screen, carrying a cellular module and antenna that can read the displayed recovery phrase and transmit it over a mobile network. Trezor has not received the device for examination but interviewed the customer by video call and is treating the report as credible, and Trezor CCO Danny Sanders said the company would rather warn people now than wait for confirmation. Trezor removed CryptoBilis from its authorized reseller network earlier this month after reports of tampered Ledger devices sold through the same distributor, and Trezor has examined four customer devices so far and found no signs of tampering in those units. No user funds loss has been reported on the Trezor side, while onchain analysts estimated losses tied to the Ledger incident at more than $86 million across Bitcoin, some shitcoin, and yet another different shitcoin, figures Ledger has not confirmed.

2. Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Jumps 5.54% as Hashprice Falls to $33 per PH/s
URL: https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-mining-difficulty-hits-148-trillion-as-revenues-fall-to-three-month-lows
Published: 2026-10-30 06:50 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin's mining difficulty rose 5.54% on Oct. 29, climbing from 140.58 trillion to 148.36 trillion after a 5.92% increase on Oct. 16. Real Vision analyst Jamie Coutts said the network's 14-day average hashrate fell 23% between its October 2025 peak and February 2026, the steepest decline since China's mining ban in 2021, and that the hashrate has since climbed 21% over 102 days, adding roughly 185 EH/s and recovering to within 6% of its prior record. Mining revenue has fallen to about $33 per petahash per second per day, the lowest since August, down from a $40 average in September. The two October adjustments together cut expected earnings per unit of unchanged computing power by roughly 10.5%. At 6 cents per kWh, equipment rated at 25 joules per terahash runs a daily power bill of $36 against about $32.68 in gross revenue after a 2% pool fee, a $3.32 shortfall, while 20 J/TH machines spend $28.80 on power and keep a modest surplus.

3. Bitcoin ETFs Add $423M Over Three Sessions as Blackrock Dominates
URL: https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-etf/bitcoin-etfs-add-423m-in-3-days-as-blackrock-leads
Published: 2026-10-30 03:59 AM CT
Summary: U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs pulled in $137.33 million on Wednesday, bringing inflows since Monday to roughly $423.66 million across three straight positive sessions. Blackrock's IBIT supplied $136.01 million of Wednesday's total and all $110.34 million on Monday, while Fidelity joined the buying on Tuesday. Trading value eased to $1.26 billion, the week's lowest, and net assets reached $104.88 billion. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart estimates the average primary-market cost basis of U.S. bitcoin ETF creations at just under $82,000 and puts collective holdings at roughly 1.3 million bitcoin. ETFs tracking some shitcoin lost $21.41 million on Wednesday, down from $88.58 million Monday and $60.22 million Tuesday, with Blackrock's fund redeeming $44.83 million while Fidelity's fund took in $18.78 million. ETFs tracking some different shitcoin shed $5.66 million through Bitwise's fund, and Grayscale's trust tracking yet another different shitcoin extended its inflow streak to seven sessions with $2.07 million.

BobClawblaw/newspost.py v1.6.3 | DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash-1017

[Richy_T]

Every time again, I'm surprised by the amount of money they keep in hot wallets. Do they really have regular withdrawals that justify such amounts and can't have someone who withdraws a billion in crypto wait a bit for manual cold wallet approval?

I'm kinda sick of tech dorks being lax about security and ruining the day for thousands or even millions of people when the inevitable happens. If it's not crypto, it's PII. And all that ever happens is a slap on the wrist from some class action.

[Richy_T]

Robert Harris’s The Fear Index?

It's a novel though, not a short story, and it was written well after the 80's.

It was definitely a short story; there wasn't much to it. I'm fairly confident on the time period but I have been wrong on that kind of thing before. It seems like it probably wasn't Clarke, from what I can tell so that leaves things open. I read a lot of anthologies.

[asUHWEceyc]

buy and never sell
tried and true bot-proof winning
no tax paperwork

[Lucius]

Another great actor passed away.

R.I.P Patrick Steward.  

"Space: the final frontier. These are the voyages of the starship Enterprise. Its continuing mission: to explore strange new worlds. To seek out new life and new civilizations. To boldly go where no one has gone before."

Bon voyage, mon capitaine.

[vapourminer]

Robert Harris’s The Fear Index?

It's a novel though, not a short story, and it was written well after the 80's.

It was definitely a short story; there wasn't much to it. I'm fairly confident on the time period but I have been wrong on that kind of thing before. It seems like it probably wasn't Clarke, from what I can tell so that leaves things open. I read a lot of anthologies.

sound like fun. if you remember post it please im always looking for a good read

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[goldkingcoiner]

Another day of not your keys, not your coins.

I've always been curious how well ETFs protect their Bitcoins. What if someone steals $50 billion there at some point?

Best case scenario: The insurance companies will flat out refuse to pay and eventually they get bailed out by the government.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[xhomerx10]

---

BTW my spacex dropped a bit.

oH NO Phil...>>>
"
JUST IN: CZ says Binance may use its over

 $1 billion stake in Elon Musk's SpaceX $SPCX

to cover losses following major hack.  = Watcher.Guru
"

------------------------#
Hackers stole over $6 billion in cryptocurrency on Thursday, shattering the record for the largest such heist as multiple investigators pointed the finger at North Korea.>
>https://edition.cnn.com/2026/10/30/tech/binance-crypto-heist-hnk-intl

Elon trolling CZ on X and then CZ threatening to sell a billion dollars worth of SpaceX stock if he doesn’t stop is hilarious.

https://x.com/cz_binance/status/2116097554882728341?a=uvCVIa-rtC0603f3f78&s=46

 I wonder if CZ checked to make sure Binance still has custody of those shares... securing assets doesn't seem to be their forte.

[xhomerx10]

Another day of not your keys, not your coins.

I've always been curious how well ETFs protect their Bitcoins. What if someone steals $50 billion there at some point?

Best case scenario: The insurance companies will flat out refuse to pay and eventually they get bailed out by the government.

 They do not have enough insurance to pay everyone nor are they required to do so.  Instead, they use the best security money can buy for their stash with military-grade physical vaults, biosecurity controls and such to fiercely guard their secure pile of air-gapped, Trezor wallets that they purchased from a third-party reseller, who applied the requisite tamper-proof sticker, on Amazon.  Nothing to worry about.  SAFU as they say.

[Richy_T]

They do not have enough insurance to pay everyone nor are they required to do so.  Instead, they use the best security money can buy for their stash with military-grade physical vaults, biosecurity controls and such to fiercely guard their secure pile of air-gapped, Trezor wallets that they purchased from a third-party reseller, who applied the requisite tamper-proof sticker, on Amazon.  Nothing to worry about.  SAFU as they say.

Hmm. A turnkey hardened cold wallet solution for such uses might be an interesting business. There would have to be ways to have assurances that none of the hardware was compromised, of course.