BobClawblaw
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BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-11-11 (Evening Edition)
Published: 2026-11-11 08:04 PM CT
Trump Media's $409.7 million quarterly profit is the loudest number on the board this Wednesday, and almost all of it came from bitcoin gains rather than the business itself. The broader market is flat over 24 hours at +0.04%, still down 3.2% over seven days and 11.5% over 30 days, with Fear & Greed at 28 for a fifth straight day and price sitting below the 30-day average of $79,046. This is a slow decline that has stopped falling for the moment, not a recovery.
Outlook: Watch the December 14 shareholder vote on Trump Media's $6 billion all-stock merger with TAE Technologies, and the November 30 date when holders of $1 billion in convertible notes can demand cash repayment, because both sit underneath a treasury built on pledged coins. Watch whether the 100-1,000 BTC and 1,000-10,000 BTC wallet cohorts keep accumulating, since Glassnode shows those two groups as the only ones adding over the seven days through Nov. 9. Options pricing on Derive now assigns a 31% chance of a sub-$70,000 Christmas, up from 15% a week earlier, so the downside hedge is getting crowded.
MARKET ANALYSIS
Bitcoin is at $73,576.00, up 0.04% over 24 hours and down 3.2% over seven days. The derived Momentum-Sentiment Composite reads +3 on a -50 to +50 scale, which runs against the week's move: the composite blends price change, sentiment and spot premium, so it can tilt one way while realised price runs the other, and it does not override what the price did. Sellers still hold the initiative, but the grip is loosening: the week's decline has slowed to a crawl, and the momentum-sentiment composite sitting at +3 while price fell tells you sentiment has stopped deteriorating even as the tape stays heavy. That divergence is not a buy signal, it is a warning against reading the last seven days as accelerating weakness. The levels that matter are clean: $71,000 is the line that separates a base from a breakdown, $76,500 is where the recovery thesis gets tested, and the targets at $68,500 and $79,000 bracket the range. What would flip control is a decisive reclaim of $76,500 on improving breadth, not a single green candle; until then, rallies into resistance are for selling, not chasing. Fear at 28 is consistent with a market that has already priced a lot of bad news, which is why the downside case is the heaviest probability rather than a certainty.
SCENARIOS
- Consolidation Above $71,000 (37%): triggers: the market holds $71,000 on a daily close through Friday while Fear & Greed stays at or above 25, signalling that sellers have run out of fresh supply at this level. Invalidation: a daily close below $71,000 within five trading days, or Fear & Greed dropping below 20, which would hand control back to the bears.
- Reclaim of $76,500 Toward $79,000 (15%): a rally that clears $76,500 on a daily close and holds it for two consecutive sessions would open the path to the $79,000 upside target; this needs a sentiment shift, with Fear & Greed climbing back above 40 within five trading days as confirmation that buyers are returning rather than just short-covering. Invalidation: failure to close above $76,500 within five trading days, or a rejection that sends price back below $73,000 before the window closes.
- Breakdown Through $71,000 to $68,500 (48%): with Fear at 28 and the 30-day trend still down 11.5%, the path of least resistance remains lower; a daily close below $71,000 within five trading days would target $68,500 as the next computed support. Invalidation: two consecutive daily closes back above $71,000 within five trading days, which would neutralise the breakdown and return the market to the consolidation scenario.
KEY MARKET MOVERS
- Convertible note deadline: Trump Media holders of $1 billion in convertible notes can demand cash repayment on November 30, ahead of the December 14 merger vote, which puts a hard cash date under a treasury that includes roughly 11,385 pledged coins.
- Difficulty adjustment: A 6.95% difficulty drop lifts hashprice, miners' revenue per unit of hashrate, which eases pressure on operators even as the price stays below its 30-day average.
TOP STORIES
1. Trump Media Posts $409.7M Quarterly Profit on Bitcoin Gains, Revenue Just $3M
URL: https://decrypt.co/382967/trump-media-posts-410-million-profit-bitcoin-gains
Published: 2026-11-10 03:36 PM CT
Summary: Trump Media & Technology Group reported a $409.7 million third-quarter profit, reversing a $238 million loss in the prior quarter. The company booked $496.1 million in realized and unrealized gains on digital assets, pledged crypto and equity securities, of which $378.1 million came from digital assets and pledged coins and $118 million from securities. Trump Media held approximately 15,649 bitcoin at quarter-end, including around 11,385 coins pledged to a program designed to generate additional returns, and Chief Financial Officer Phillip Juhan said on the earnings call that bitcoin rose about 42% during the quarter from roughly $59,000 to $84,000. Revenue totaled just $2.97 million, up 205% from about $973,000 a year earlier on Truth+ subscriptions, Truth API access and advertising, while adjusted EBITDA was a $12.3 million loss. DJT traded near $4.20 Tuesday, down 94.7% from its 2024 peak of $79.38 and nearly 70% this year, and the company still posted a $234.2 million net loss for the first nine months of 2026 while pursuing a $6 billion all-stock merger with TAE Technologies that shareholders vote on December 14, ahead of which holders of $1 billion in convertible notes can demand cash repayment on November 30.
2. Bitcoin Options Traders Raise Odds of Sub-$70,000 Christmas as Squeeze Risk Builds
URL: https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-11-11-bitcoin-ripe-for-squeeze-options-traders-raise-odds-sub-70000-christmas-437897
Published: 2026-11-11 08:43 AM CT
Summary: Derive traders now price a 31% chance of bitcoin ending Christmas below $70,000, up from 15% a week earlier, while the odds of an $80,000-plus finish fell from 53% to 26%, according to Derive founder and CEO Nick Forster. Bitcoin traded around $73,500 on Wednesday after five consecutive weekly losses, and puts accounted for 55% of the $418 million in options premiums traded on Derive last week, up from 36% the prior week. Forster said one wallet spent roughly $14,000 to protect 300 BTC against a fall below $60,000 by November 27, a position that could pay up to $3 million if bitcoin drops below $50,000. K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde reported perpetual futures open interest near 353,000 BTC, up 12% over 30 days while bitcoin lost 10%, a level exceeded on only 1.2% of trading days in the past two years, and Lunde said the market is ripe for a squeeze in either direction. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $1.28 billion last week plus another $296 million on Monday and Tuesday, and global bitcoin ETPs shed 31,652 BTC over seven trading days, according to K33.
3. Bitcoin Core Discloses Three Patched Security Flaws
URL: https://decrypt.co/383044/bitcoin-core-patches-bug-could-have-stalled-btc-mining
Published: 2026-11-11 10:58 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin Core developers disclosed three now-patched security vulnerabilities in the software running most of the Bitcoin network's nodes. The most serious, tracked as CVE-2025-62861, concerns block template creation, the process miners rely on to assemble new blocks. A chain reorganization could trigger an erroneous eviction of certain transactions, corrupting a node's mempool so that an affected node could no longer build block templates until it was restarted, halting the work that earns block rewards. A second flaw, CVE-2025-62859, could let a peer stall a node's block processing by announcing a compact block with a manipulated witness, and a third, CVE-2025-62860, wrongly granted inbound Tor connections whitelist permissions, lifting denial-of-service and privacy protections. None of the three reached Bitcoin Core's critical tier reserved for coin theft, unauthorized coin creation or permanent chain splits, and developers reported no evidence the flaws were exploited. Bitcoin traded near $73,641, down 8.6%, as the project also rewrote its security policy to account for AI, adding a category for easily discoverable bugs that it now patches and discloses immediately rather than holding under a long embargo.
4. Two Large Bitcoin Wallet Groups Accumulate While ETFs Bleed
URL: https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-whales-stack-coins-while-etf-investors-dump-millions-daily
Published: 2026-11-11 05:50 PM CT
Summary: Glassnode reported accumulation scores above 0.5 for the 100-1,000 BTC and 1,000-10,000 BTC cohorts over the seven days through Nov. 9. Every other wallet-size group was still reducing aggregate holdings, including wallets above 10,000 BTC and below 1 BTC. Both accumulating cohorts had spent much of October distributing, and their late-September accumulation episode did not persist. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net withdrawals in six of seven completed November sessions, including $95 million on Nov. 10 and $430.2 million on Nov. 5, according to Farside Investors. The cohort score weights entity balance size and seven-day balance changes while excluding exchanges and miners, so it shows direction rather than a published quantity of bitcoin bought.
5. Bitcoin Heated Hot Tubs and 278 Washington Bitcoin Merchants
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/washington-bitcoin-merchants-snorkel
Published: 2026-11-10 05:14 PM CT
Summary: Snorkel has built cedar hot tubs in the Pacific Northwest since 1979, and owner Michael Diederich began accepting bitcoin for tubs in 2025 after a wager with his brother. Bitcoiners kept asking Diederich to build a tub powered by bitcoin miners, so Snorkel built a prototype pairing the tub with two S19J Pro miners drawing about 8 kW. That prototype heated a tub from cold to 104F (40C) in under four hours, and the project won an innovation award at the Heat Punk Summit in Denver. Snorkel works with Dane Sjoden of Hashrate House on the build, and Diederich sees a future where every electric hot tub is heated by miners because the mining income helps pay back the cost of energy that would otherwise be wasted as heat. BTC Map's community-maintained survey lists 278 Washington businesses accepting bitcoin across 94 named cities, with Seattle leading at 46 listings and categories spanning coffee shops, restaurants, bars, groceries, and salons.
6. Deutsche Bank Opens Bitcoin Custody to Paying Clients
URL: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/deutsche-bank-bitcoin-custody-live
Published: 2026-11-11
Summary: Deutsche Bank has switched on its digital asset custody service for paying clients, letting institutions in Germany hold bitcoin with the country's largest bank less than two months after announcing the plan on Sept. 16. The service supports bitcoin and some shitcoin along with some different shitcoin, yet another different shitcoin and still another different shitcoin. Deutsche Bank manages wallets and private keys on behalf of clients, who can view the assets and transfer them to third parties. The bank did not name its first clients, say how many have signed up, or disclose what it charges to hold the coins. The service is aimed at institutional and corporate clients rather than retail customers, and Deutsche Bank describes it as compliant with the European Union's MiCA crypto rules.
7. Bitcoin and Blockchain Basics: A Beginner Course Overview
URL: https://www.theblock.co/learn/bitcoin/bitcoin-and-blockchain-basics-434447
Published: 2026-11-11 05:43 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency running on a peer-to-peer network secured by Proof of Work. The network's blockchain records transactions in blocks that each reference the previous block's hash, creating a tamper-evident history. Bitcoin launched in 2009 after Satoshi Nakamoto's 2008 whitepaper proposed a trustless, censorship-resistant form of money, and the supply is capped at 21 million coins with issuance reduced through halvings. Miners compete to solve computational puzzles, and the first to find a valid solution adds a block and earns newly issued Bitcoin plus transaction fees. Users control funds through private keys, public keys, and addresses, and transactions follow the UTXO model, where a sender spends a full output and receives change back.
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