Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-11-13 (Evening Edition) Published: 2026-11-13 08:04 PM CT The Fear & Greed Index sits at 13 this Friday, down 15 points over the past week and back in Extreme Fear territory, as Bitcoin falls 3.79% over 24 hours and 10.0% over seven days. The move has taken price to its lowest level in 12 weeks, roughly 12.6% below the 30-day average of $78,066, and the selling is broad rather than confined to one venue. Two 2010-era addresses waking up after 16 years and moving about 100 BTC is the curiosity of the morning, but the dominant story is the macro and flow backdrop: Fed rate fears plus six straight sessions of spot ETF net outflows totaling about $1.49 billion. Outlook: The next scheduled catalyst is the December 8-9 Fed meeting, where futures currently price a 91.9% chance of a quarter-point hike and an 8.1% chance of a half-point move, so the core CPI print at 0.3% is the number that decides which of those lands. Watch whether the six-session ETF outflow streak extends or breaks, since that flow has been the clearest tell on institutional demand this month. On the mining side, the difficulty change of -8.99% is worth tracking because it lifts hashprice, miners' revenue per unit of hashrate, which may ease some of the selling pressure that comes from stressed operators. MARKET ANALYSIS Bitcoin is at $68,214.00, down 3.79% over 24 hours and down 10.0% over seven days. The derived Momentum-Sentiment Composite reads +6 on a -50 to +50 scale, which runs against the week's move: the composite blends price change, sentiment and spot premium, so it can tilt one way while realised price runs the other, and it does not override what the price did. Sellers hold the initiative, and the tape has not yet produced the kind of exhaustion that ends a slide like this one. The computed levels frame the argument cleanly: $63,500 is the line that separates a controlled pullback from a deeper unwind toward $59,000, while $73,000 is where the market would have to prove the weakness was temporary and open the path to $77,500. The tension between the +6 momentum-sentiment composite and the -10.0% week resolves the same way either way you slice it: sentiment is stabilizing faster than price, which is typical of a market that has stopped panicking but not yet started buying. What flips control is a decisive reclaim of $73,000 on real volume, not a bounce; what confirms the sellers is a daily close below $63,500. Extreme Fear at 13 argues that positioning is already defensive, so the marginal seller is more likely a forced one than a discretionary one. SCENARIOS - Consolidation Above $63,500 (32%): triggers: price holds $63,500 on a daily close through Friday while Fear & Greed stays at or below 20, signalling that sellers have run out of fresh supply at this shelf. Invalidation: a daily close below $63,500 within five trading days. - Reclaim of $73,000 Toward $77,500 (12%): the market needs a catalyst, not just a drift, so watch for a daily close above $73,000 accompanied by Fear & Greed lifting off 13 into the 25-35 band within five trading days; that combination would mark a genuine shift in positioning rather than a short squeeze. Invalidation: price fails to close above $73,000 at any point within five trading days, or closes back below it after tagging it. - Downside Re-test of $59,000 (56%): with the week down 10.0% and sentiment pinned at Extreme Fear, the path of least resistance still points lower, and a daily close below $63,500 within five trading days would confirm the breakdown and open $59,000 as the next computed objective. Invalidation: price closes any day above $63,500 within five trading days without first printing a close below it. KEY MARKET MOVERS - Fed policy path: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said inflation has spread into services and medical costs and he does not feel the path back to 2% is on track, while Governor Christopher Waller backs at least a 25 basis point hike at the December 8-9 meeting, and the 0.3% core CPI print has futures pricing a 91.9% chance of a quarter-point move. - ETF outflow streak: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have logged six consecutive sessions of net outflows totaling about $1.49 billion between November 5 and November 12, a running total rather than a single-week figure, even as the funds still hold roughly $55.5 billion in cumulative net inflows. - Mining economics: The estimated hashrate sits at 650.0 EH/s with a difficulty change of -8.99%, which raises hashprice, miners' revenue per petahash per day, and may soften the economics that have pressured some operators into selling. TOP STORIES 1. Two 2010 Bitcoin Addresses Move 100 BTC After 16 Years Dormant URL: https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-11-13-from-6-to-6-9-million-two-dormant-bitcoin-addresses-wake-up-to-move-100-btc-after-more-than-16-years-439698 Published: 2026-11-13 07:33 AM CT Summary: Two Bitcoin addresses that had sat untouched for more than 16 years each sent roughly 50 BTC on Friday morning, moving about 100 BTC worth approximately $6.89 million. The first address sent nearly 50 BTC to one address and 0.01 BTC to another at 4:08 a.m. UTC, and the second address sent nearly 49 BTC to one address and 1 BTC to another just over two minutes later. Both sets of coins came from block rewards mined in September 2010, when each 50 BTC reward was worth about $3. By 4:48 a.m. UTC, about 20 BTC from the first transfer and 39 BTC from the second had been consolidated at a new bc1qj5 address, with 30 BTC at another new address, 10 BTC at a third and 1 BTC at a fourth. The wallets' owners, the reason for the transfers and whether the two original outputs shared an owner all remain unknown, and the coins have gained more than 1.15 million times in value since 2010. 2. Bitcoin Falls to $68,500, Lowest in 12 Weeks, as Fed Rate Fears and ETF Outflows Mount URL: https://decrypt.co/383231/bitcoin-hits-12-week-low-fed-rate-fears-undo-summer-rally Published: 2026-11-13 11:22 AM CT Summary: Bitcoin dropped to roughly $68,500 on Friday, its lowest price in 12 weeks, down about 4.5% over 24 hours and 9.5% on the week. Some shitcoin traded near $1,925 and some different shitcoin slipped below $80 as selling spread across major cryptocurrencies. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said inflation has spread beyond energy and tariffs into services and medical costs, and he stated he does not feel the path back to 2% is on track. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he supports raising rates at least 25 basis points at the December 8-9 meeting, and he set a condition for a larger move if core CPI came in around 0.3% or higher; the report then showed core CPI at exactly 0.3%, and futures markets priced a 91.9% chance of a quarter-point hike and an 8.1% chance of a half-point hike. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs logged six straight sessions of net outflows totaling about $1.49 billion between November 5 and November 12, though the funds still hold roughly $55.5 billion in cumulative net inflows. Bitcoin's daily RSI sits at 25.4, an oversold reading, while the ADX at 25.3 confirms an established downtrend; immediate support is around $67,650, with deeper support near $64,000, and Bitcoin must reclaim $70,815 and $72,775 before testing resistance between $74,355 and $75,937. 3. Treasury Used Euros, Not Dollars, for July Yen Rescue URL: https://cryptoslate.com/yen-intervention-euros-bitcoin-liquidity Published: 2026-11-13 09:30 AM CT Summary: The New York Fed confirmed in a November 12 report that the Treasury financed its July 31 yen intervention with euros from the Exchange Stabilization Fund. The New York Fed bought 79.4 billion yen in the spot market against ESF euro sales, acting as Treasury's fiscal agent, and the Federal Reserve itself did not intervene in foreign-exchange markets during the third quarter. Because the trade swapped one reserve currency for another, it supplies no evidence of new Fed dollars reaching Bitcoin markets. Central-bank dollar swap balances fell from $250 million on June 30 to $207 million on September 30, and the Bank of Japan had none outstanding at quarter-end. Bitcoin traded near $68,288, down 3.61% over 24 hours, and the article ties potential pressure to leverage rather than the intervention itself: a stronger yen makes unhedged yen borrowing costlier to repay, and margin calls could force leveraged investors to raise cash or cut positions. 4. JPMorgan Raises Strategy Stake 36% and BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Position URL: https://www.theblock.co/news/business/2026-11-13-jpmorgan-reports-36-rise-in-strategy-share-holdings-and-540-million-in-blackrocks-bitcoin-etf-439671 Published: 2026-11-13 03:58 AM CT Summary: JPMorgan Chase lifted its Strategy common stock position by 224,545 shares in the third quarter, reaching 848,932 shares as of Sept. 30. That is a 36% increase from the 624,387 shares the bank reported as of June 30, and the filing valued the stake at roughly $131.3 million at quarter end when MSTR traded near $155. The bank also raised its BlackRock bitcoin ETF holding to 11,408,930 shares worth about $540 million, up 9.6% from 10,407,635 shares the prior quarter. JPMorgan reported 1,581,814 Coinbase shares plus stakes in Robinhood and bitcoin miners Core Scientific, MARA Holdings, Riot Platforms, Hut 8, and CleanSpark. Strategy closed Thursday at $114.41, down about 6.5%, putting the reported Sept. 30 stake near $97.1 million, while bitcoin fell 7% over 24 hours to $68,408, its lowest since Aug. 20. 5. Twenty One Capital posts $1.09B Q3 net income on bitcoin fair-value gains URL: https://www.theblock.co/news/business/2026-11-13-tether-backed-twenty-one-capital-reports-1-09-billion-q3-net-income-on-bitcoin-gains-439711 Published: 2026-11-13 08:49 AM CT Summary: Twenty One Capital reported third-quarter net income of $1.087 billion, almost entirely from $1.093 billion in unrealized fair-value gains on its bitcoin holdings. The Tether-backed firm held 43,514 BTC as of Sept. 30, valued at roughly $83,700 per coin, alongside $102.8 million in cash equivalents. Its convertible notes carried $486.5 million in principal and were collateralized by about 16,116 BTC. Twenty One Capital also recorded a $4.8 million operating loss and $1.34 million in interest expense for the quarter, and it posted a net loss of $186.5 million for the first nine months of 2026 as bitcoin's price declined. CEO Rapha Zagury said a balance sheet is not a business and that the company is evaluating bitcoin mining, lending, treasury and energy opportunities, and Zagury said Twenty One Capital would consider buying back shares when they trade below the value of the assets attributable to them.
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