Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Hueristic]

#HoDLUnaffected

[Biodom]

well 68k seems to be holding but bitstamp did hit 67.5k for just a tiny bit of time

I see a floor of 55555 give or take 555.55

lets see if it is correct.

unfortunately it does seem like the 4 year cycle fools are not foolish.

so I have a pair of dip buys set at  62,134 and 59,876.

in a few hours the new difficulty will come in allowing me to get more btc with the mine.

and we wait for the next hack or scandal to come.

...$150K in Spring 2028 still looks possible and I am looking forward to it.

we got a small scratch (ok maybe a tiny flesh wound ) and everybody is turning bearish...

WO Bros Chics

How 150K in Spring of 2028 (16 mo) could be considered bearish?
It's a 2.29X from today in 16 mo.
I would be truly happy if this happens.
bros are not very realistic, it seems.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@CryptoKaleo
Reminder that the market has bottomed the last two cycles within a month after the midterm elections.

Whether we go lower or not from here, I see no reason to not stay bullish and continue stacking.

The lows at each point were short lived and the capitulation wicks were all erased shortly.

We're close to turning things around.

Patient bulls will continue to thrive.



https://x.com/cryptokaleo/status/2121637154044481728

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[El duderino_]

Hopium.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Hopium.

We will reach the promised lands my friend.

[JimboToronto]

Not made up: there's a similar process for coffee beans. They feed them to elephants and harvest the stuff they shit out...

Man, that coffee must taste so sh...mooth!

Found it:

Black Ivory Coffee, made in Thailand

Move over Kopi Luwak:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kopi_luwak

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[goldkingcoiner]

Not made up: there's a similar process for coffee beans. They feed them to elephants and harvest the stuff they shit out...

Man, that coffee must taste so sh...mooth!

Found it:

Black Ivory Coffee, made in Thailand

Move over Kopi Luwak:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kopi_luwak

Next fad is going to be "human-refined". Mark my words, those degenerates will pay big bucks.

[OgNasty]

well 68k seems to be holding but bitstamp did hit 67.5k for just a tiny bit of time

I see a floor of 55555 give or take 555.55

lets see if it is correct.

unfortunately it does seem like the 4 year cycle fools are not foolish.

so I have a pair of dip buys set at  62,134 and 59,876.

in a few hours the new difficulty will come in allowing me to get more btc with the mine.

and we wait for the next hack or scandal to come.

...$150K in Spring 2028 still looks possible and I am looking forward to it.

we got a small scratch (ok maybe a tiny flesh wound ) and everybody is turning bearish...

WO Bros Chics

How 150K in Spring of 2028 (16 mo) could be considered bearish?
It's a 2.29X from today in 16 mo.
I would be truly happy if this happens.
bros are not very realistic, it seems.

Have you finally given up your fight and declared the 4-year cycle as real and the mother of all Bitcoin trading signals? That’s what it looks like… If so, the bottom signals are starting to appear. We are getting close… This is what we’ve been waiting a year for… The time to become bullish again is rapidly approaching.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

well 68k seems to be holding but bitstamp did hit 67.5k for just a tiny bit of time

I see a floor of 55555 give or take 555.55

lets see if it is correct.

unfortunately it does seem like the 4 year cycle fools are not foolish.

so I have a pair of dip buys set at  62,134 and 59,876.

in a few hours the new difficulty will come in allowing me to get more btc with the mine.

and we wait for the next hack or scandal to come.

...$150K in Spring 2028 still looks possible and I am looking forward to it.

we got a small scratch (ok maybe a tiny flesh wound ) and everybody is turning bearish...

WO Bros Chics

How 150K in Spring of 2028 (16 mo) could be considered bearish?
It's a 2.29X from today in 16 mo.
I would be truly happy if this happens.
bros are not very realistic, it seems.

Have you finally given up your fight and declared the 4-year cycle as real and the mother of all Bitcoin trading signals? That’s what it looks like… If so, the bottom signals are starting to appear. We are getting close… This is what we’ve been waiting a year for… The time to become bullish again is rapidly approaching.

How the movements from 58K to 87K (>50% move), then back down to 65.6K (-25% move) could be explained by the cycles?
Of course, they cannot be, therefore the cycle mumbo jumbo is VERY passe, except for the miners cost that is increasing by 2X roughly every four years, so there is no cycle, but a typical commodity economics: the price almost always does not go far from the cost of production, UNLESS bitcoin the not a commodity...

The current market is internally contradictory anyway because when inflation is up, gold and bitcoin should be up, not down. Why they aren't? This is a big question.
I just think that AI trade "ate" the funds from the tech bros and we are running low on liquidity. From mid next week, maybe we will stabilize and up in another 2-4wks.

[OgNasty]

there is no cycle

Eh… Looks like there is still more pain ahead.

[Biodom]

there is no cycle

Eh… Looks like there is still more pain ahead.

According to the "cycle theory", it should have started a bull market already, time-wise.
You (and others) keep changing what the cycle means in price and time, which makes it an amorphous "nothing" apart from the typical commodity economics where the cost of production is the key and even this might not be the case. Inflation clearly has no effect on the price (of both gold and bitcoin) right now.

[OutOfMemory]

IMO there is a cycle, but there's also some variation to it. As there was in previous cycles, especially within the younger ones.
And there are catalysts like FTX, if you remember the "stolen" top where much liquidity just left the market mid bullrun.
Then there's the paper bitcoin derivatives, acting as some kind of muffler to the momentum.

At least these are the patterns as i see them, roughly lined out.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[AlcoHoDL]

there is no cycle

Eh… Looks like there is still more pain ahead.

According to the "cycle theory", it should have started a bull market already, time-wise.
You (and others) keep changing what the cycle means in price and time, which makes it an amorphous "nothing" apart from the typical commodity economics where the cost of production is the key and even this might not be the case. Inflation clearly has no effect on the price (of both gold and bitcoin) right now.

I think we over-complicate and over-explain things sometimes. My take on cycles is simple:

Cycle theory:

y = Halving
y+1 = ATH

Evidence:

y = 2016 = Halving
y+1 = 2017 = ATH

Add 4 years:

y = 2020 = Halving
y+1 = 2021 = ATH

Add 4 years:

y = 2024 = Halving
y+1 = 2025 = ATH

Add 4 years (future):

y = 2028 = Halving
y+1 = 2029 = ATH (expected)

Will it hold true in the future? I don't know. And, in my current state as a coiner, I don't care much. I'm just observing a pattern.

[Biodom]

there is no cycle

Eh… Looks like there is still more pain ahead.

According to the "cycle theory", it should have started a bull market already, time-wise.
You (and others) keep changing what the cycle means in price and time, which makes it an amorphous "nothing" apart from the typical commodity economics where the cost of production is the key and even this might not be the case. Inflation clearly has no effect on the price (of both gold and bitcoin) right now.

I think we over-complicate and over-explain things sometimes. My take on cycles is simple:

Cycle theory:

y = Halving
y+1 = ATH

Evidence:

y = 2016 = Halving
y+1 = 2017 = ATH

Add 4 years:

y = 2020 = Halving
y+1 = 2021 = ATH

Add 4 years:

y = 2024 = Halving
y+1 = 2025 = ATH

Add 4 years (future):

y = 2028 = Halving
y+1 = 2029 = ATH (expected)

Will it hold true in the future? I don't know. And, in my current state as a coiner, I don't care much. I'm just observing a pattern.

Only..it wasn't like this the last time; Y=2024=halving, ATH=2024 (even before the halving).
Imho, this will also happen in 2028, hence my prediction of the ATH by the April of 2028, at the latest.