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Question: Price Target for Nov. 30, 2024:
<$75K - 2 (3.6%)
$75K to $80K - 1 (1.8%)
$80K to $85K - 2 (3.6%)
$85K to $90K - 7 (12.5%)
$90K to $95K - 12 (21.4%)
$95K to $100K - 9 (16.1%)
>$100K - 23 (41.1%)
Total Voters: 56

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26493542 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
X7
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September 06, 2014, 11:25:53 PM

grappa_barricata
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September 06, 2014, 11:28:54 PM

For all those who fundamentally deny a relation between hashrate and price. Check the 60 day charts at blockchain.info and tell me theres no inverted proportionality.

See the charts for at least one year range, and you will see price rising and the hashrate too.

So you can find evidence of both kind of relation(direct and reverse), so I guess the hashrate alone is not a good predictor.

You are right. However in the long run hashrate/difficulty which is an estimate for the basic production cost per BTC (excluding HW, OC) will approach or even show congruency with the price per BTC. At least that is what Satoshi assumed: "The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost. If the price is below cost, then production slows down. If the price is above cost, profit can be made by generating and selling more." Feb. 21, 2010 Satoshi Nakamoto

He meant that hashing power adapt to price: a self-regulating system, where price is an external factor.
But price will not adapt to hashing power, because the system of miners have no way to control it.
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September 06, 2014, 11:35:53 PM

For all those who fundamentally deny a relation between hashrate and price. Check the 60 day charts at blockchain.info and tell me theres no inverted proportionality.

See the charts for at least one year range, and you will see price rising and the hashrate too.

So you can find evidence of both kind of relation(direct and reverse), so I guess the hashrate alone is not a good predictor.

You are right. However in the long run hashrate/difficulty which is an estimate for the basic production cost per BTC (excluding HW, OC) will approach or even show congruency with the price per BTC. At least that is what Satoshi assumed: "The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost. If the price is below cost, then production slows down. If the price is above cost, profit can be made by generating and selling more." Feb. 21, 2010 Satoshi Nakamoto

He meant that hashing power adapt to price: a self-regulating system, where price is an external factor.
But price will not adapt to hashing power, because the system of miners have no way to control it.

Miner can't control it but miners can act. By shutting down inefficent HW.
grappa_barricata
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September 06, 2014, 11:39:21 PM

For all those who fundamentally deny a relation between hashrate and price. Check the 60 day charts at blockchain.info and tell me theres no inverted proportionality.

See the charts for at least one year range, and you will see price rising and the hashrate too.

So you can find evidence of both kind of relation(direct and reverse), so I guess the hashrate alone is not a good predictor.

You are right. However in the long run hashrate/difficulty which is an estimate for the basic production cost per BTC (excluding HW, OC) will approach or even show congruency with the price per BTC. At least that is what Satoshi assumed: "The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost. If the price is below cost, then production slows down. If the price is above cost, profit can be made by generating and selling more." Feb. 21, 2010 Satoshi Nakamoto

He meant that hashing power adapt to price: a self-regulating system, where price is an external factor.
But price will not adapt to hashing power, because the system of miners have no way to control it.

Miner can't control it but miners can act. By shutting inefficent HW.

You are right, the miners system can self-regulate itself in that way, essentially.
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September 06, 2014, 11:56:43 PM

For all those who fundamentally deny a relation between hashrate and price. Check the 60 day charts at blockchain.info and tell me theres no inverted proportionality.

See the charts for at least one year range, and you will see price rising and the hashrate too.

So you can find evidence of both kind of relation(direct and reverse), so I guess the hashrate alone is not a good predictor.

You are right. However in the long run hashrate/difficulty which is an estimate for the basic production cost per BTC (excluding HW, OC) will approach or even show congruency with the price per BTC. At least that is what Satoshi assumed: "The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost. If the price is below cost, then production slows down. If the price is above cost, profit can be made by generating and selling more." Feb. 21, 2010 Satoshi Nakamoto

He meant that hashing power adapt to price: a self-regulating system, where price is an external factor.
But price will not adapt to hashing power, because the system of miners have no way to control it.

Miner can't control it but miners can act. By shutting inefficent HW.

You are right, the miners system can self-regulate itself in that way, essentially.


There are people that mine only to help the network. Not sure if they are significant.

Also shutting down inneficient HW might means more centralization
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September 06, 2014, 11:59:13 PM


Explanation
dakota neat
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September 07, 2014, 12:10:54 AM

For all those who fundamentally deny a relation between hashrate and price. Check the 60 day charts at blockchain.info and tell me theres no inverted proportionality.

See the charts for at least one year range, and you will see price rising and the hashrate too.

So you can find evidence of both kind of relation(direct and reverse), so I guess the hashrate alone is not a good predictor.

You are right. However in the long run hashrate/difficulty which is an estimate for the basic production cost per BTC (excluding HW, OC) will approach or even show congruency with the price per BTC. At least that is what Satoshi assumed: "The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost. If the price is below cost, then production slows down. If the price is above cost, profit can be made by generating and selling more." Feb. 21, 2010 Satoshi Nakamoto

He meant that hashing power adapt to price: a self-regulating system, where price is an external factor.
But price will not adapt to hashing power, because the system of miners have no way to control it.

Miner can't control it but miners can act. By shutting inefficent HW.

You are right, the miners system can self-regulate itself in that way, essentially.


There are people that mine only to help the network. Not sure if they are significant.

Also shutting down inneficient HW might means more centralization

I'm also worried about mining centralization. But i don't believe in altruism. So anybody who is supporting the BTC network expects a positive outcome for himself like increased price, sustainability, growth. Thats not a bad thing. Thats how we tranlate bitcoin into reality.
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September 07, 2014, 12:34:06 AM

It is sunday morning in China already... i wonder if it will be another bloody sunday.
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September 07, 2014, 12:42:33 AM

JorgeStolfi
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September 07, 2014, 12:58:43 AM

They did not say that.  You are putting your words into the mouths of 18th century jurists Smiley [ ... ] It's not clear to me why you emphasize the 'physical note', because with most modern currencies, the owner rarely actually possesses a physical note of any kind.

That lawsuit, and the crucial verdict, was about property of a specific physical note:
Quote
In the litigation Mr Crawfurd sought to vindicate a £20 Bank of Scotland note which had gone missing in the post and turned up some time later in the hands of the Royal Bank of Scotland.
The verdict merely said that that banknote was no longer the victim's property, because its current holder had received it by legitimate means in good faith:
Quote
Victory for the Royal Bank was obtained only by re-characterising a rule of bona fide consumption, by spending, as one of bona fide acquisition.

But the verdict obviously did not say that stolen cash ceases to be the property of the victim just because "cash is fungible".  Police routinely seize money from cash thieves and return it to the victims.  If the thief exchanged the cash for other valuables, without the merchant's knowledge, the cash then is "clean", but the valuables are still seized, as being conceptually the victim's property.

That being said, I can't imagine that the legal powers that be would not see X amount of bitcoin returned to one from whom it had been robbed, if the robber could be positively identified, just as they might with X US dollars that had been stolen.  It's also not clear to me why you think legal remedies for theft of bitcoins must differ significantly from what they would be for other effectively virtual currencies, like US dollars.

I am sure that the police in most countries would, in principle, consider bitcoin theft as any other property theft.  And it seems that some people have succeeded in convincing the police to investigate bitcoin thefts.  For example, check this thread about the Intersango scam; and I understood that the MtGOX liquidator has asked the Japanese police to investigate the disappearance of some additional 27'000 BTC.

However, catching a bitcoin thief will be quite hard in general.  The transaction that stole your bitcoins may have been issued from your own computer, automatically, by some self-erasing malware, while the hacker was not even online.  You can point to the stolen coins in the blockchain, but the thief may leave the coins there for years, and no one can take them from him. Or he can hack into an old PC in Mongolia, and from there tumble the coins so thoroughly that it will be practically impossible to trace them to his person when he finally spends them.

AFAIK no theft of bitcoins by outside hackers has been solved, by the police or anyone else.  In several cases of insider theft, the culprit was identified with high probability, but I don't know of any case where the evidence was sufficient to get a conviction.

If they could catch DPR and seize his bitcoin I can't see why it is fundamentally impossible to catch a bitcoin thief.

DPR was not a bitcoin thief.  He ran a large website selling illegal drugs, and was caught for that.  They tailed him digitally for some time, hacked into his computers, collected the evidence they needed (and perhaps the private keys), and phisically grabbed him only when they felt that they had enough evidence.   As others pointed out, that investigation was relatively easy, because SilkRoad was a continuing operation, with lots of traffic and many people involved.
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September 07, 2014, 12:59:12 AM


Explanation
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September 07, 2014, 01:15:57 AM

WTactualF is that gif about?!
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September 07, 2014, 01:59:13 AM


Explanation
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September 07, 2014, 02:02:16 AM


The red depth doesn't looks good.

I sense something might happens soon.
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September 07, 2014, 02:05:26 AM

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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"


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September 07, 2014, 02:23:45 AM

bitcoin is a very diverse group... its not at all accurate to say any significant % of the community, is  anti-government, or libertarian or wtv. maybe it was true in 2011 but i dont think its true anymore. even from the post we see here, no one seems to agree on anything, expect that the price of bitcoin is ... ya no, no one agrees on anything anymore.

I disagree.











f

u

k

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September 07, 2014, 02:42:06 AM

in august we had in btc a google trend of 22, now in september its 25. could this be a signal for the next bubble?

http://s14.directupload.net/images/140907/yadqkl55.jpg
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September 07, 2014, 02:59:12 AM


Explanation
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September 07, 2014, 03:19:32 AM

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September 07, 2014, 03:59:13 AM


Explanation
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