Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[NotLambchop]

someone would expect the price to go up after the Paypal news, or was it priced in already ?

This has been going on for months now. Value is improving (so I'm happy) but price is completely disconnected from value in the short run.

That's because disruptive technology--old-fashioned economic modeling is obsolete

nah, in the short term mr Market is crazy in the "old fashioned" economy as well. It's just that people can be really ignorant. And what makes up the market? That's right!

You're either saying that the market is inherently irrational, thus immune to rational analysis (by definition), or?
I'd rather know what the ignorant sheeple will do, not what some hypothetical rational actor should do.  The first influences the market, and helps me trade, the second?  Not so much

[iram3130]

someone would expect the price to go up after the Paypal news, or was it priced in already ?

I think paypal is already priced in, but not the way people would expect: smart money already shorted in anticipation of this news.

What I understand, when big merchants add Bitcoin as payment, it's not good news for short term.
Because Merchants just take payment in Bitcoin and convert into fiat on same time by using coinbase.
That is why price dropping even people think these news are very big for Bitcoin community.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[fonzie]

Nom Nom Nom@Finex

[klee]

https://hitbtc.com/market-analytics

"Talk is also starting to pick up in Bitcoin circles that big players might be considering taking some profits from their early entries and mining profitability is starting to get stressed at these prices. "

Tone Vays is a 10 year veteran of Wall Street working for the likes of JP Morgan Chase and Bear Sterns within their Asset Management divisions. Trading experience includes Equities, Options, Futures and more recently Crypto-Currencies. He is a Bitcoin believer who frequently helps run the live exchange (Satoshi Square) at the NYC Bitcoin Center and more recently started speaking at Bitcoin Conferences worldwide. He also runs his own personal blog called LibertyLifeTrail.


Thoughts?

[JorgeStolfi]

Don't forget he holds > 1.000.000 BTC. It may be hard to spend his coins without revealing some details about his identity to someone. If he is exposed, he doesn't have to care any more and dump, let's say, 100.000 BTC on the market to get some cash.

It is quite possible of course that he has other coins beside those known to be "Satoshi's coins", and has been spending those.

[empowering]

https://hitbtc.com/market-analytics

"Talk is also starting to pick up in Bitcoin circles that big players might be considering taking some profits from their early entries and mining profitability is starting to get stressed at these prices. "

Tone Vays is a 10 year veteran of Wall Street working for the likes of JP Morgan Chase and Bear Sterns within their Asset Management divisions. Trading experience includes Equities, Options, Futures and more recently Crypto-Currencies. He is a Bitcoin believer who frequently helps run the live exchange (Satoshi Square) at the NYC Bitcoin Center and more recently started speaking at Bitcoin Conferences worldwide. He also runs his own personal blog called LibertyLifeTrail.


Thoughts?

Would be a daft time to take profits.... if they did not take profits between $800-$1300

[NotLambchop]

...
Would be a daft time to take profits.... if they did not take profits between $800-$1300

Dat hindsight...

[klee]

https://hitbtc.com/market-analytics

"Talk is also starting to pick up in Bitcoin circles that big players might be considering taking some profits from their early entries and mining profitability is starting to get stressed at these prices. "

Tone Vays is a 10 year veteran of Wall Street working for the likes of JP Morgan Chase and Bear Sterns within their Asset Management divisions. Trading experience includes Equities, Options, Futures and more recently Crypto-Currencies. He is a Bitcoin believer who frequently helps run the live exchange (Satoshi Square) at the NYC Bitcoin Center and more recently started speaking at Bitcoin Conferences worldwide. He also runs his own personal blog called LibertyLifeTrail.


Thoughts?

Would be a daft time to take profits.... if they did not take profits between $800-$1300

How many coins where bought between 150$ and 350$ ?
That is the question..

[damnek]

https://hitbtc.com/market-analytics

"Talk is also starting to pick up in Bitcoin circles that big players might be considering taking some profits from their early entries and mining profitability is starting to get stressed at these prices. "

Tone Vays is a 10 year veteran of Wall Street working for the likes of JP Morgan Chase and Bear Sterns within their Asset Management divisions. Trading experience includes Equities, Options, Futures and more recently Crypto-Currencies. He is a Bitcoin believer who frequently helps run the live exchange (Satoshi Square) at the NYC Bitcoin Center and more recently started speaking at Bitcoin Conferences worldwide. He also runs his own personal blog called LibertyLifeTrail.


Thoughts?

Analyst opinions are a lagging indicator.. don't pay attention to it. How the hell can you compare a payment system with a precious metal anyway?

[klee]

https://hitbtc.com/market-analytics

"Talk is also starting to pick up in Bitcoin circles that big players might be considering taking some profits from their early entries and mining profitability is starting to get stressed at these prices. "

Tone Vays is a 10 year veteran of Wall Street working for the likes of JP Morgan Chase and Bear Sterns within their Asset Management divisions. Trading experience includes Equities, Options, Futures and more recently Crypto-Currencies. He is a Bitcoin believer who frequently helps run the live exchange (Satoshi Square) at the NYC Bitcoin Center and more recently started speaking at Bitcoin Conferences worldwide. He also runs his own personal blog called LibertyLifeTrail.


Thoughts?

Analyst opinions are a lagging indicator.. don't pay attention to it. How the hell can you compare a payment system with a precious metal anyway?

Cypherdoc does it all the time

[empowering]

https://hitbtc.com/market-analytics

"Talk is also starting to pick up in Bitcoin circles that big players might be considering taking some profits from their early entries and mining profitability is starting to get stressed at these prices. "

Tone Vays is a 10 year veteran of Wall Street working for the likes of JP Morgan Chase and Bear Sterns within their Asset Management divisions. Trading experience includes Equities, Options, Futures and more recently Crypto-Currencies. He is a Bitcoin believer who frequently helps run the live exchange (Satoshi Square) at the NYC Bitcoin Center and more recently started speaking at Bitcoin Conferences worldwide. He also runs his own personal blog called LibertyLifeTrail.


Thoughts?

Would be a daft time to take profits.... if they did not take profits between $800-$1300

How many coins where bought between 150$ and 350$ ?
That is the question..

Well the answer  to your question for me is = Not enough coins - should have bought more   As I was confident that BTC had a bright future.

I cannot speak for everyone that bought a few years back... but a year ago I did not sell, because I thought BTC will have a bright future...

Fast forward a year later..... BTC is still here... and the future is even brighter and BTC is even stronger... (only a blind man cannot see this)

So therefore, for me , now is not the time to sell....

But then I have no intention to sell when we reach the next ATH either.

[NotLambchop]

...
Analyst opinions are a lagging indicator..

The useful and prescriptive indicator being opinions of the ignorant?

... don't pay attention to it. How the hell can you compare a payment system with a precious metal anyway?

Because many Bitcoiners consider it a store of value?

[NotLambchop]

...
BTC is still here... and the future is even brighter and BTC is even stronger... (only a blind man cannot see this)

So therefore, for me , now is not the time to sell....
...

Horribly faulty logic.  BTC may be "even stronger," but its exchange rate is lower than it once was.  If the exchange rate continues on its downward trend, it's smart to sell, regardless of Bitcoin's eventual success.

[coins101]

The path to $100,000 BTC

-> Apple launch own payments system

-> PayPal sign posts to the market it is doing something to counter with BTC

-> More traders take notice of BTC

-> Samsung, thinks it needs to enter the game with BTC.

-> Sony has to keep up and launches BTC for gamers

-> Every trader takes a stake in BTC

-> Pension funds buy as much BIT and COIN as they can get their hands on

-> Warren Buffett changes his mind on BTC

-> Retail investors buy as much BTC, BIT and COIN as they can

-> Microsoft thinks about buying all the BTC, but decides to create MSN Coin

-> We all live happily ever after


Give it 2 months to pan out.  Bookmark and come back at 1pm GMT, November 22.

[damnek]

...
Analyst opinions are a lagging indicator..

The useful and prescriptive indicator being opinions of the ignorant?

Analysts and ignorants are not mutually exclusive.

... don't pay attention to it. How the hell can you compare a payment system with a precious metal anyway?

Because many Bitcoiners consider it a store of value?

I don't think it matters what a handful of bitcoiners think when bitcoin becomes used by the masses through Paypal and the likes.

[Bittings]

How many coins where bought between 150$ and 350$ ?
That is the question..

According to just MtGox history (ignoring the February 2014 stuff) the price was in that range from roughly Oct 15, 2013 to November 11, 2013, with a volume of ~840k BTC. Obliviously that is just one exchange (albeit the most prominent one during that timeframe). Extrapolation left to the reader.

[inca]

someone would expect the price to go up after the Paypal news, or was it priced in already ?

I think paypal is already priced in, but not the way people would expect: smart money already shorted in anticipation of this news.

Of course these things aren't priced in.

[empowering]

...
BTC is still here... and the future is even brighter and BTC is even stronger... (only a blind man cannot see this)

So therefore, for me , now is not the time to sell....
...

Horribly faulty logic.  BTC may be "even stronger," but its exchange rate is lower than it once was.  If the exchange rate continues on its downward trend, it's smart to sell, regardless of Bitcoin's eventual success.

Right... ok if that works for you, it works for you.

I am very happy with my decision, and it has worked very well for me... I am perfectly happy, the only thing I have done wrong is not buy more in the $75 region...

"If the exchange rate continues"  there is only one thing the exchange rate will continue to do.... and that is go up, and go down, and sideways and down and up etc etc  

If you are playing this long term, as I am, and do not really care for spending the time or the stress or the risk, playing games to increase your BTC stash, then there is nothing wrong with my "horrible logic"  it might not fit into your way of thinking, or your plan, risk tolerance, long term goals, views , financial situation/needs, lifestyle, etc but that is fine, that is why you are one individual and I another.

BTC being "even stronger" counts for me, for the same reason it counted 2 years ago... I believed then that BTC will continue to get stronger and stick around... it has and I continue to believe that it will... and so I continue to maintain my position, and will do so until something changes my mind...  the recent price action has not had that effect on me, as it is one thing that you can for now expect i.e the price moving in both directions more often than not, this will continue and we shall no doubt  continue to have periods of up and down and periods of stability and periods of volatility, however I also believe that we will get hyper rallies at various points as funds from various sectors inject themselves into the Bitcoin network as BTC continues on its path  and continues to become, more usable, gains more social proof, and becomes more and more ubiquitous... which is the significance of BTC becoming "stronger"

[NotLambchop]

...
Analyst opinions are a lagging indicator..

The useful and prescriptive indicator being opinions of the ignorant?

Analysts and ignorants are not mutually exclusive.

Right.  "Engineer" and "stupid" are also not mutually exclusive.  Though when it comes to engineering, I'd be more tempted to listen to an engineer over a ditch digger.  Bigoted me