Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[NotLambchop]

oda.krell,
It's not that everything for me is about money for me--very few things are.  It's just that money is always about money.  Anyhow, recycling an old Hodler post from a securities thread (and continuing my dickishness)

Dear Hodlers!
This is your painful predicament, depicted by the one who started the Hodler craze--a man shaped by loss and faith in symmetry, Ferdinand Hodler.
The angels watching over you are his wife, Augustine.
Yes, all of them.
She ded.
Leaving you in my capable (though reluctant) care.
Now please get dressed, no good will come of this...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[grappa_barricata]

People are becoming very hateful and quarrelsome around here. It's no wonder though, many have put the highest of expectations into specific events/news the past few months, only to be disappointed again and again as they learn (and repeatedly forget) that news doesn't mean shit in a market ruled by sentiment.

Agreed. But it's not their fault! Fucking brain chemicals, that's them! That's why a successful trader should 'release it' at least twice a day. But not like this.

[BBmmBB]

The markets, right now:

http://s21.postimg.org/6rttyvbdz/Verdun_1916.jpg

http://smilies.newcastlebeats.com/smilies/smily961.gif
http://sd.keepcalm-o-matic.co.uk/i/keep-calm-and-go-pound-sand.png

[Jybrael]

This is just panic dumping. The market will fix itself soon enough.

[oda.krell]

oda.krell,
It's not that everything for me is about money for me--very few things are.  It's just that money is always about money.  Anyhow, recycling an old Hodler post from a securities thread (and continuing my dickishness)

Dear Hodlers!
This is your painful predicament, depicted by the one who started the Hodler craze--a man shaped by loss and faith in symmetry, Ferdinand Hodler.
The angels watching over you are his wife, Augustine.
Yes, all of them.
She ded.
Leaving you in my capable (though reluctant) care.
Now please get dressed, no good will come of this...

Haha, nice post.

Alright, so here's a variation of the Oscar Wilde line about sex:

Everything in the world is about money. Except money. Money is about politics.

[tifozi]

People are becoming very hateful and quarrelsome around here. It's no wonder though, many have put the highest of expectations into specific events/news the past few months, only to be disappointed again and again as they learn (and repeatedly forget) that news doesn't mean shit in a market ruled by sentiment.

News affects sentiments, but it isn't the only factor. Let's not be so dismissive of news.

[ShroomsKit]

This is just panic dumping. The market will fix itself soon enough.

How and when is the market gonna fix itself exactly?

[Rampion]

People are becoming very hateful and quarrelsome around here. It's no wonder though, many have put the highest of expectations into specific events/news the past few months, only to be disappointed again and again as they learn (and repeatedly forget) that news doesn't mean shit in a market ruled by sentiment.

News affects sentiments, but it isn't the only factor. Let's not be so dismissive of news.

You've just witnessed the most bullish news EVER (Paypal stating officially they bet on BTC) and still you see how market reacted.

In this market sentiment is driven by price, and price is driven by sentiment. It sounds like a paradox, but it isn't.

[N12]

People are becoming very hateful and quarrelsome around here. It's no wonder though, many have put the highest of expectations into specific events/news the past few months, only to be disappointed again and again as they learn (and repeatedly forget) that news doesn't mean shit in a market ruled by sentiment.

News affects sentiments, but it isn't the only factor. Let's not be so dismissive of news.

I'm sure that news does have temporary effects that can serve to extend/contract both time and price moves, but not much more than that. The overall conditions for news to bear fruit must be there.

Another factor is that news is interpreted here usually wishfully. For example, the argument that GABI would drive the price up was founded on no more than the fund manager publicly saying he expects 200 million USD within a year to flow in, but, as I've argued in the past, there are a few uncertainties to this: 1) The manager has an incentive to pump the numbers to attract more people since he obviously wants to display Bitcoin as very bullish, 2) He does not have 200M in commitments; his general impression may be off or it may be invalidated by future market changes as one year is a long period, 3) We already have several funds like Exante, Secondmarket, Pantera and from SM's BIT we have publicly available data that shows people haven't bought for several months now (in fact, it's even shifting to selling).

So, perhaps a case could be made that you could analyze things better than people here have commonly done. However, even so, I have never seen a framework which would allow you to "trade the news" profitably. How do you weight things in bullishness, bearishness, time, and how are their interrelations (maybe they are more complex)? How do you set your entry? When do you exit on profits? What do you do when you are wrong, and how do you find out?

[Rampion]

I'm sure that news does have temporary effects that can serve to extend/contract both time and price moves, but not much more than that. The overall conditions for news to bear fruit must be there.

Well said. Paypal might announce they are adopting bitcoin, even Bank of America could announce tomorrow that all their e-banking customers will have a BTC wallet, but nevertheless at this time market won't do shit.

The market trend will not reverse because of news. Sure, the paypal thing is fundamentally bullish and will only help adoption - but people won't start to buy bitcoin because of that. The average joe is thinking: "uh? Bitcoin? That's dead, right?" just because we are in a bear market - and the average joe does not invest in stuff that goes down.

When the trend reverses, then everybody will jump on board irrationaly - like they always do. And the trend will reverse when the last seller has sold his last coins. You only have a safe bet: buy when its going down (now for example) and SELL when it is going up. All the rest is gambling

[ChancellorOnABrink]

You've just witnessed the most bullish news EVER (Paypal stating officially they bet on BTC) and still you see how market reacted.

When i see this, i shit bricks !

But some BS here :

 "date 14/06/2013"
"payement method : cash" 

Cardreader accept Bitcoin since 2012  15-Oct-12    We are now accepting Bitcoins as payment.

So why satoshi will use a burned account 2 years after vanished to buy some carder stuff with is real identity & real address paying cash or bitcoin is available.. So much nonsense

http://motherboard-cdn-assets.vice.com/content-images/contentimage/15132/1410242085712497.png

[JorgeStolfi]

You've just witnessed the most bullish news EVER (Paypal stating officially they bet on BTC)

Methinks you read quite a few paragraphs between the lines there.

[Peter R]

In this market sentiment is driven by price, and price is driven by sentiment. It sounds like a paradox, but it isn't.

Exactly.  And this explains why we get distinct "growth spurts" as opposed to a price history that looks like exponential Brownian motion.  There are two variables (price and adoption) that are coupled in a way that produce positive feedback: this positive feedback reinforces the uptrend (until it snaps) and reinforces the downtrend (until it tapers out).  

[BitChick]

People are becoming very hateful and quarrelsome around here. It's no wonder though, many have put the highest of expectations into specific events/news the past few months, only to be disappointed again and again as they learn (and repeatedly forget) that news doesn't mean shit in a market ruled by sentiment.

I was having a discussion with BitChicksHusband this morning about this.  He said that it seems that negative news can affect the price more quickly than positive news.  What happens when there is some negative press is that people that already have some Bitcoin can sell off immediately.  However, with positive news those that have not yet purchased any coins but are interested in doing so have to begin the process of signing up or finding a place to purchase them.  This can take a while.  The affect on price is delayed because of this.  

That said, I still think some people are waiting to see what announcement Apple makes today.  Hopefully they follow Paypal/Braintree and mention Bitcoin at least.

[grappa_barricata]

Well, news may hint to some future changes in fundamentals (supply & demand).
Example: country declare war -> sea routes expected to be less safe -> imported goods supply became lower, while demand not -> future price increase

[Chalkbot]

People are becoming very hateful and quarrelsome around here. It's no wonder though, many have put the highest of expectations into specific events/news the past few months, only to be disappointed again and again as they learn (and repeatedly forget) that news doesn't mean shit in a market ruled by sentiment.

The majority here (Speculation) doesn't give a shit about anything other than talking their book.

Was it always this way? I have fond memories of this place in the past, but maybe I've altered my own reality.

[Rampion]

People are becoming very hateful and quarrelsome around here. It's no wonder though, many have put the highest of expectations into specific events/news the past few months, only to be disappointed again and again as they learn (and repeatedly forget) that news doesn't mean shit in a market ruled by sentiment.

I was having a discussion with BitChicksHusband this morning about this.  He said that it seems that negative news can affect the price more quickly than positive news.  What happens when there is some negative press is that people that already have some Bitcoin can sell off immediately.  However, with positive news those that have not yet purchased any coins but are interested in doing so have to begin the process of signing up or finding a place to purchase them.  This can take a while.  The affect on price is delayed because of this.  

It is true that is quicker to sell the BTC you already have than to buy your first coins, but if you pay attention you will see that during bull markets bad news have almost no effect on price (I remember the 2013 fork, it was just a flash crash) while positive news cause huge spikes. In any case only noobs trade on news, and they get burnt 99% of the time. During a bear market positive news will have almost no effect, during bull markets negative news don't do shit. The average trader is just looking at the price: if it goes up he buys and he doesn't want to sell - if it goes down he is certainly not buying, and probably he is selling.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[tifozi]

You've just witnessed the most bullish news EVER (Paypal stating officially they bet on BTC)

Methinks you read quite a few paragraphs between the lines there.

Exactly.

Not to mention, remember how Paypal was the enemy not long ago? Are you ready for the first Bitcoin chargebacks?