BTC price should have risen after China froze exchanges

[JL421]

I don't think it is actually like what you are saying. Basically most of the investors are from china and they bought from those exchanges so if they want cash they can easily exchange back. But when China started to frozen those exchanges as usual the Chinese started fearing so they started selling the bitcoins. This same thing happened when Chinese bank declared that bitcoin is a risky investment because of that there was panic.
So basically the price drops are mostly related to china.

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[Vikingr]

Currently those people who want to buy at lower price are spreading some bad news about bitcoin that it will drop that is why the price is lowered a little currently but sooner it will boost up much higher in the coming months as you are right the supply has decreased much and the demand is going to be normal and at that time it will boost up in price.

[jakelyson]

The supply of circulating BTC is now less, at least for a month or possibly longer. Should not a decrease in available supply increase the price?

Not when the people affected dump their coins to avoid their funds being frozen for a month. That is why the price suddenly dropped because of the panic. If they convert their fiat back to bitcoin on another exchange, the price will push back up. Then it will be back to the point just before the panic dump.

[Carmen_Sandiego]

I think the impact of such inferences should not have been extended that way, but panic is something that some people have not yet learned to control. That's why the price goes down so sharply, and there are people willing to spread FUD, because they saw it as an opportunity to make money.

[Dmitry.Vastov]

People's Bank of China(PBOC) is very obvious. Whenever the bitcoin's price surges to $1000.  PBOC quickly do something to make bitcoin traders panic and sell their btc. So the bitcoin's price drops back again. But now it doesn't much affects the bitcoin's price this time. I guess their trick is not working anymore. Expect PBOC will intensify their actions against bitcoin.

[deisik]

The supply of circulating BTC is now less, at least for a month or possibly longer. Should not a decrease in available supply increase the price?

24 Hour volume is $403,038,000. It's not less, it's more than the usual.

Some folks are panic selling, other folks are panic buying

Other than that, you should keep in mind that the trading volume can be heavily misleading. And I don't mean that it should necessarily be fake. You could get high trading volumes by a lower number of coins if they just change hands more often. For example, yesterday I made a few trades, namely, bought back what I had sold before, then rinse, repeat. So my trading volume exceeded a few times the quantity of coins actually used for trading. There is nothing better than a good old volatility bout (well, arbitrage may in fact be better)

[Diced90]

Bitcoin price was never going to rise  as china is known to have the most cryptocurrency  investors and chinas central bank is crushing all the gains by pressuring exchangers which affect investors confidence negatively,which is why we seeing prices dragging below $1000 now.

[deisik]

Bitcoin price was never going to rise  as china is known to have the most cryptocurrency  investors and chinas central bank is crushing all the gains by pressuring exchangers which affect investors confidence negatively,which is why we seeing prices dragging below $1000 now.

That may still happen

The next few days will determine the short-term trend. The news of the major Chinese exchanges locking Bitcoin withdrawals (as well as other cryptocurrencies) is by far more serious and "real" than the warning that the PBoC issued in early January, but Bitcoin has gone down less than 100 dollars. It feels like there are no more fools left. If things continue to develop along this path, China will soon become irrelevant (at least, in respect to Bitcoin trading)

[Przemax]

What people think that "should" happen in the world of finances based on some economical theory is mostly wrong. Not that its wrong most of the times its usualy the oposite thats happening.

You think that the price should rise because there are less bitcoins to be sold. But what if I tell you that its the number of bitcoins that was leveraged was creating the price.

In other words most of the time its the supply that increase the price of product not the demand. If someone has a lot of supply of something he is encouraged to make a positive pr and marketing of their products. And in todays world its the marketing that sets the price.

[jovs]

Bitcoin price was never going to rise  as china is known to have the most cryptocurrency  investors and chinas central bank is crushing all the gains by pressuring exchangers which affect investors confidence negatively,which is why we seeing prices dragging below $1000 now.

That may still happen

The next few days will determine the short-term trend. The news of the major Chinese exchanges locking Bitcoin withdrawals (as well as other cryptocurrencies) is by far more serious and "real" than the warning that the PBoC issued in early January, but Bitcoin has gone down less than 100 dollars. It feels like there are no more fools left. If things continue to develop along this path, China will soon become irrelevant (at least, in respect to Bitcoin trading)

Certainly, votality made by Chinese bitcoin investors was intended to make money from people that can' handle their emotion.

However, after of what happened on tge first weeek of januar, it seems like people aren't affected or suprised on the dumped made yesterday. I think they learned that it would still get back to $1000+, and that's great. If we would continue not to be fooled by false volume of dumps, those dumpers would certainly make no profit.

[deisik]

What people think that "should" happen in the world of finances based on some economical theory is mostly wrong. Not that its wrong most of the times its usualy the oposite thats happening.

You think that the price should rise because there are less bitcoins to be sold. But what if I tell you that its the number of bitcoins that was leveraged was creating the price.

In other words most of the time its the supply that increase the price of product not the demand. If someone has a lot of supply of something he is encouraged to make a positive pr and marketing of their products. And in todays world its the marketing that sets the price.

I have a much simpler explanation

To tell the truth, I don't see how marketing can be relevant in this case at all, when the price changes "in real time" together with the event causing this change. But that's mostly irrelevant since as I have just said everything can be explained without sticking to obscure ideas (like the one you are proposing). And this has no connection to economic theories, either. It is easier than that. Basically, price moves in the direction which is most profitable to those market participants who have most say. These are typically called price manipulors. Since Bitcoin can be generally considered as a zero-sum game, the latter can only profit by stripping the rest of the trading folk off of their money. And the rule of thumb is that the price usually goes in the direction where most traders are going to lose their coins either directly or indirectly, i.e. lose profits (e.g. when everyone and their dog expect the price to fall and it starts rising)

[rajasumi3]

No the price hike is not because of that .because the exchanges froze the price of bitcoins will become hanging for a quite bit of a time .

[justdimin]

The supply of circulating BTC is now less, at least for a month or possibly longer. Should not a decrease in available supply increase the price?

Freezing exchange activities also might lead to a decrease in demand unlike you have mentioned only about surplus supply. So, we cannot be 100% sure only for positive impact on bitcoin prices due to China exchange's withdrawal pause incident. Anyway we can assume less activities from Chinese people which may impact on bitcoin price levels, let us wait for directions.

[Zooplus]

The effect is still the same, after a big price dip, we are seeing a great price increase now. What we see will says it all, we should stop speculating on that negative things that will happen, bitcoin is strong and the actions of the PBOC is not enough to make a huge crisis.

[X-ray]

You can still get money out of those exchanges by selling your BTC. Who wouldn't do that just in case? And there certainly won't be as many buyers as there once were on there.

Ah. That makes sense. I didn't know they could sell the BTC.

OkCoin & Huobi are now freezing withdrawal as well. This is not good news for the bitcoin community.


 

But they still running the exchange for well and i didn't thought if the PBOC's act was disturbing bitcoin at least it just give a little correction for the price of bitcoin and in this time the bitcoin is showing to us about its potential.

[audaciousbeing]

The supply of circulating BTC is now less, at least for a month or possibly longer. Should not a decrease in available supply increase the price?

From the way I see it, we always streamline our thinking that the determinant of the price of bitcoin whether on the increase or decrease, depends in just one factor but thats not the case most times as there are cumulative amount of other factors that account for such changes in price although there are some that have influence more than the other but that does not remove the fact that there are still other factors even though they might be silent in influencing price.

[Mometaskers]

We'd still have to consider that people can still dump their coins out of fear. This reduces confidence and lowers the value. I'm still expecting the price the pick up where it was before the plunge before starting to rise again. People have gotten used to all these news from China and many were probably anticipating the drop to buy coins, pushing the price back up again.

[BillyBobZorton]

You can still get money out of those exchanges by selling your BTC. Who wouldn't do that just in case? And there certainly won't be as many buyers as there once were on there.

Ah. That makes sense. I didn't know they could sell the BTC.

You guys are not looking at the big picture here.

Even IF the bitcoins where frozen and nobody could sell, it doesn't mean that the private keys are lost forever and therefore shrinking the bitcoin supply. It would mean that those coins would be property of the chinese government and would probably get stored or audited.

But the good news is: after the initial fear, bitcoin recovers quicker and quicker every time.

[deisik]

You can still get money out of those exchanges by selling your BTC. Who wouldn't do that just in case? And there certainly won't be as many buyers as there once were on there.

Ah. That makes sense. I didn't know they could sell the BTC.

You guys are not looking at the big picture here.

Even IF the bitcoins where frozen and nobody could sell, it doesn't mean that the private keys are lost forever and therefore shrinking the bitcoin supply. It would mean that those coins would be property of the chinese government and would probably get stored or audited

And what does it really change?

Are they going to auction them later (like the FBI did) or what? If they confiscate these bitcoins (under whatever pretext) or choose to do something along these lines (I don't know what else they could be up to), the days of Bitcoin in China are in fact numbered. I mean no one alert and of sober mind would ever want to move their coins inside the jurisdiction of the Chinese government. I guess even the Chinese traders themselves would stay away from Chinese exchanges

[Loganota]

This is only at the beginning, then the market sees that the news is not so unfavorable and the price recovers very fast. No matter how much the government tries to regulate the exchanges. Not blocking the use in the country, everything is normal, just negotiate in p2p, the spirit of freedom remains ..