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Author Topic: the crash is over?  (Read 4525 times)
rpietila
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April 18, 2013, 06:35:41 AM
 #41

I don't know if it's over, but I do know that I've never trading something so resilient as BTC.  All those little crashes on they way to 260 were blips after a few days. 

It's because there are no shorts.  Everyone that is trading is long by definition.  If they sell, it's to buy back at a lower price or to take profits.

It creates massive swings, but has huge upside.

+1.

To add: People have tendency to project their own actions or thought to the general public. I, for one, am super bullish long term, have done my homework, bought on equity (not credit) on the way to $100, stopped buying, sold a tiny bit over $200 (had intention to sell 25% at an average price of $400 but we never got that far), resumed buying at $100 and now I am slowly accumulating more as I don't have "excess" assets that could be converted to BTC (my silver is also getting interesting..), I would never panic sell, but I did panic buy several times on the way up.

I think most of the new entrants in Jan-March were like me.

If someone, on the other hand, actually bought on margin, solely for the reason that it went up, and is now either exited or busted, he may very well think that most of the new money was from the likes of him.

What I think, however, is that some time from now on, it will come from the likes of me. True believers. It will be an excellent entry point, as we cannot go but up from the point where all sellers have sold already. The "bears" in this forum are people waiting to buy back, the successful speculators have no reason to come here to spread FUD, they are already pumping the next bubble in Madagaskar real estate or something with their quick gains.
There are several different types of Bitcoin clients. Hybrid server-assisted clients like Electrum get a lot of their network information from centralized servers, but they also check the server's results using blockchain header data. This is perhaps somewhat more secure than either server-assisted clients or header-only clients.
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superduh
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April 18, 2013, 11:59:51 PM
 #42

i'm glad i was right. "correction" happening. hopefully it will go slower

ok
BitcoinAshley
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April 19, 2013, 12:15:08 AM
 #43

Quote from: rpietila
What I think, however, is that some time from now on, it will come from the likes of me. True believers.


It's funny, though, because many of our resident Occupy Wall St. Bears would label you a
"greedy speculator who doesn't believe in or care about bitcoin," simply because you have more than, say, [$5000 USD worth of bitcoins] (arbitrary amount, because, around here, having a fiat savings account is OK but we're supposed to treat Bitcoin like a hot potato lest we be labeled 'greedy.') It's interesting how "true believer" means different things to different folks... But as you say,
Quote from: rpietila
[...] the successful speculators have no reason to come here to spread FUD, they are already pumping the next bubble in Madagaskar real estate or something with their quick gains.

The real speculators are done and onto the next bubble, lol @ Madagascar real estate.

For the FUDers, no matter why the price goes up, they'll always blame it on "greedy speculators." Any price rise must surely be due to bubble-pumpers rather than thousands upon thousands of people just like me, buying bitcoins to avoid fiat and for the sheer convenience.
   
xorglub
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April 19, 2013, 12:08:37 PM
 #44

Today was very interesting. If you look at the hourly chart it looks almost identical to the "zoomed out" chart of the april crash. Oh fractal nature of markets...

If history is to be repeated, the price is going to gradually decrease to about $110, accelerating towards $100. There will be some big sell-offs at around that $90-$100 resistance. If it holds, then both bubbles can be called over.
If it does not and $80ish support is broken, we are entering a dangerous bear territory.
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April 19, 2013, 12:24:30 PM
 #45

I'm interested to see what the bottom turns out to be. That's not saying much, everyone here is waiting to see that. But I'm looking forward to seeing how the long-term volatility of BTC shapes up. To have a repeat of the 2011 crash from 30 to around 2, we'd need to break below 20. If the bottom turns out to be significantly above 20, I'd take it as supportive of the theory that volatility should go down as trading volume goes up, in the long term.

Selling out to advertisers shows you respect neither yourself nor the rest of us.
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