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Author Topic: the crash is over?  (Read 4525 times)
superduh
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April 16, 2013, 11:58:44 PM
 #1

not counting the day traders causing a lot of volatility is it possible that the crash may actually be settling
obviously, noone has any actual idea.
some people who have a lot of coins might try to manipulate
but it's been 3 days since the "disaster"
wouldn't everyone who wanted to cash out have cashed out by now?
i would assume that people feel confident at a certain level
it's been 3+ days. good or bad assumption

ok
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checkers6676
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April 17, 2013, 12:04:37 AM
 #2

i have buy orders spread from here to china. and sell orders spread from there back. i am eBrluaBl (an exact and equal mix of Bear and Bull, in no particular order)
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April 17, 2013, 12:07:14 AM
 #3

I would imagine everyone who has wanted to get out has gotten out by now, and we're left with long-term holders, which would technically make it a new bull market. I don't expect any kind of euphoric bubbles again, but I think there is not much the market can do besides go up.
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April 17, 2013, 12:07:27 AM
 #4

Crash is over, correction will continue...

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BitcoinAshley
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April 17, 2013, 12:55:29 AM
 #5

Correction is losing momentum and we are seeing massive volumes during significant moves.
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April 17, 2013, 01:14:36 AM
 #6

Looks like it -- buying pressure is increasing again. There is a big wall at $60 and $61 -- yesterday it was at $50; it look slike buyer sentiment is improving.

Still lots of selling pressure too, but she seems to be holding up well.

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April 17, 2013, 01:21:49 AM
 #7

I don't think it will ever stable out 100% if people arnt willing to use it as currency. They only see it as an investment which is a shame because the potential is there we just have to utilize it.
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April 17, 2013, 01:30:09 AM
 #8

I don't think it will ever stable out 100% if people arnt willing to use it as currency. They only see it as an investment which is a shame because the potential is there we just have to utilize it.

I use it both ways.

There won't be stability in any case while BTC trades at penny-stock prices. As the ecosystem expands, the net demand for BTC will rise, pushing the price up with it. But a steadily increasing price draws in the speculators and get-rich-quick crowd, fuelling the next bubble, which pops, and around and around we go...

There should be more stability at $10/mBTC. Grin

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April 17, 2013, 02:25:18 AM
 #9

I'm still bearish.  Using the June 2011 "crash" as a reference for how this one will turn out, prices will continue to drop for some time.  Obviously things are different in many ways now, but I think the price will steadily drop for some time.  We'll see whether I'm wrong soon.   Wink
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April 17, 2013, 02:29:30 AM
 #10

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xN4XpIbEY-Y

=)
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April 17, 2013, 02:31:48 AM
 #11

2011?

Was Beiber even born back then? Wasn't Regan president?

Past performance is not an indication of future results. If only it was that easy, we'd all be rich. Luckily I'm old enough I was there in 2011, this isn't remotely close to what happened then.

I'm still bearish.  Using the June 2011 "crash" as a reference for how this one will turn out, prices will continue to drop for some time.  Obviously things are different in many ways now, but I think the price will steadily drop for some time.  We'll see whether I'm wrong soon.   Wink

SlipperySlope
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April 17, 2013, 04:23:18 AM
 #12

After the high on Wednesday, June 8, 2011, at 31.90, the previous bitcoin bubble dropped to just 2.20. That drop took 159 days and most of the time the rate of decline was about 1% a day.  There were several high volume capitulations along the way.

To the extent that this bubble is typical, this crash is not over - the losses for buyers above 70 are only going to increase.
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April 17, 2013, 04:31:47 AM
 #13

the crash is over. whether we slide downhill or get wind under our wings nobody knows.

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xorglub
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April 17, 2013, 04:56:31 AM
 #14

Impossible to know for sure...

Arguments for :
* record volume trying to sell into the $50 support, twice, not broken. Capitulation ?
* fundamentals look great. Lots of new businesses and buyers. MtGox seems to have fixed their lag problem.
* lots of confidence that was not present in 2011 - at the time it was the first bubble and no one knew if Bitcoin would survive. Today its recovery is a question of when, not if.
* forum bears are quieter again (not just Proudhon, whether he's trolling to desperately get the price down or genuinely bullish, it's a bullish sign either way)
* usual eliott wave analysis of 0->30 = wave 1, 30->2 = wave 2, 2->266 = wave 3, 266->? = wave 4 implies that the low of wave 4 must be >32. Does not let much further downside than what we've already retraced from the 266 high.

Arguments against :
* even though we're now back at $70, we are not officially clear of the downtrend channel that started with the first bounce to $130 after the bubble popped. That rally may just be a correction for dropping 50% in a day (100->50) and the downtrend may contine slowly.
* bubble deflation was too quick ?
* still lots of people speculating. Way too much IMHO. The bulls are still in "yeah $100 by next week woohoo !" mode; after the true bottom I would expect the rally to restart very slowly, not go from $50 to $80 and back to $65 in less than a day.

What do you think ?
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April 17, 2013, 05:01:43 AM
 #15

nice list of points. it should be noted that the wall at 70, which I believe is currently holding up the current price, is the work of a handful of people (all of those buy orders appeared together over a few minutes), and when that person/people log off for the day where ever they are (canceling their buy orders if they dont actually want them filled, and I believe they dont or there'd be a lot more volume via market buys), then the price will drop back into 60s range.
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April 17, 2013, 06:48:09 AM
 #16

This crash was not a mere correction. I for one am buying back when I see a reason to on the weekly chart.
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April 17, 2013, 06:53:10 AM
 #17

Link?  Smiley
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April 17, 2013, 07:31:17 AM
 #18



Today it is my opinion (caveat!) that we will see our first green candlestick since the crash.

I tweet crypto nonsense: https://twitter.com/DunningKruger_
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April 17, 2013, 07:49:07 AM
 #19

This crash was not a mere correction. I for one am buying back when I see a reason to on the weekly chart.

That's good. I would think it nets you more than it takes.

I would give a 20% chance now, that bitcoin in a major traded exchange would go below $50, 12% for a visit to $32. (Before end of 2013)

Less than 5% that we linger at around 50 next autumn.
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April 17, 2013, 07:53:26 AM
 #20

I think the worst is behind us. The market has tried to break through the $50 support twice and failed, this gives confidence and makes speculators afraid to try that a third time and fail again. We're going up again with a slowly rising support level is my opinion.

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