War between US and China

[Sithara007]

Unfortunately, all leaders tend to have larger ambitions. They always present delusions of grandeur and as soon as they encounter others in the same leader the other methods except the war they have no choice. Moreover, they do not fight and are therefore not afraid to be killed or wounded.

That is not true. Perhaps that was the case a few decades back. But nowadays, the political leaders can't afford to alienate the general population by taking one-sided decisions. The people are more aware about the current affairs and politics, thanks to the internet and social media. It is not possible to control them by hiding the facts.

Trump lol


Btw. With accepting the one china policy the danger of a hot war was for sure lowered.
Good choice of trump to take some steps back.
(I think this is the reason why china enacted a coal embargo to north korea - one hand helps the other)

SCS and trading deficit are still a hot topic though.

That was his tactic. First he unnerved the Chinese by hinting that he may be not honor the one-China policy. This got the Chinese worried and they made secret deals with the Americans over North Korea. In the end, it was a victory for Trump.

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[tabnloz]

Some relevant points to make:

QE 4 is here / coming. Its defense spending. A lot of defense spending heightens tension and promotes conflict. The US & China has had to come to agreements stopping their jet pilots from flipping the bird at each other. That is how close they are flying to each other over the South China Sea area. Conflict is inevitable as economies decline as we have seen throughout history. Maybe we will only see economic or trade wars this time and not a military war - what landmass could US / China fight for? No one will buy the 'we need to protect freedom in X' anymore.


* The PBoC needs jobs and food in order to appease its population. It also needs to adjust its economy to a consumer driven market. Chinese debt has risen from 7trillion to 28 trillion in less than 10 years.

- it needs to keep its economy competitive (cheapish Yuan)
- it needs to control food supply (South China Sea islands in large fishing catchment area, shipping lanes)
- it is facing the 'impossible trinity' (cannot have open capital account, pegged currency, independent interest rates at same time for long).

* The US is in internal upheaval and is both beholden to, and master of the global economy.

- The Trump Administration looks to lean towards an alliance with Russia that would calm the Middle East & destroy Daesh.
- The Obama Administration had pivoted towards China
- The Intelligence Community (CIA) has many Cold Warriors who wish to re-ignite conflict with Russia. They have tried to destroy Trump ('Putin puppet'), taken out Flynn, and destroyed the Obama initiated Syrian peace by bombing Syrian soldiers during ceasefire.
- The US Fed needs to raise rates in prep for another recession but this imports deflation and harms emerging markets, leading to either more currency wars or an economic panic (that could possibly be very bad as global debt is enormous).
- Fed can only hope to raise before a recession hits. Otherwise we are in serious trouble, a financial ELE.
- The globalists really need inflation (to reduce debt). The Chinese own a large amount of UST's, therefore inflation cheapens their UST assets.
- The Trump Admin looks to be more isolationist & protectionist, forcing companies to bring jobs & cash back to America.
- Globalism and free trade has destroyed the middle class (Trumps base) for the past few decades and enriched big corporations.