Shorting BTC !! (sort of) Looking for Bulls!

[MrTeal]

To be honest I believe in Technical Analysis.
Trends, Support, Resistance, Waves.
And my Technical Analysis methods show a strong Resistance in 100.
I do not know anything about current price level. 91.55?
92.11? 93? etc.
I do not care about 90 something. It is not important.
I was just emphasizing how close we are to my threshold.

100

Alright.

A=24
B=100
X=2.5
Y=1

Interested?

[im3w1l]

Willing to take bear part of

A=24
B=100
X=1
Y=1.2
(well actually X=0.5, Y=0.6)

EDIT: Offer valid for one hour from now.

[adraza]

To be honest I believe in Technical Analysis.
Trends, Support, Resistance, Waves.
And my Technical Analysis methods show a strong Resistance in 100.
I do not know anything about current price level. 91.55?
92.11? 93? etc.
I do not care about 90 something. It is not important.
I was just emphasizing how close we are to my threshold.

100

Alright.

A=24
B=100
X=2.5
Y=1

Interested?

is it sarcasm or misunderstanding?

[adraza]

Willing to take bear part of

A=24
B=100
X=1
Y=1.2
(well actually X=0.5, Y=0.6)

if you are a bear and want to "take" my bulls at least start your own playground. do not spam here.

[adraza]

Looking for a good escrow !!


I almost forgot this detail.

You know, although senile, I am a "Junior". And I may meet some other juniors.
I do not want to be sorry.

Or if know other ways of keeping the trust for the bet until finished....

[MrTeal]

To be honest I believe in Technical Analysis.
Trends, Support, Resistance, Waves.
And my Technical Analysis methods show a strong Resistance in 100.
I do not know anything about current price level. 91.55?
92.11? 93? etc.
I do not care about 90 something. It is not important.
I was just emphasizing how close we are to my threshold.

100

Alright.

A=24
B=100
X=2.5
Y=1

Interested?

is it sarcasm or misunderstanding?

Neither, it's a genuine offer. Is it stands there's 30kBTC between here and 100BTC. While I think the market will trend up in the relatively short term, there's a very good chance that it won't break 100. If it drops, stagnates, rises a little but not over 100, or even rises over 100 at 23 hours and 25 hours but is in a temporary dip at 24, you win the bet. I would bet on that, but I would have to get better than 1:1 odds. If you're really confident in your technical analysis and think that 100 is unlikely, there's no that you should be afraid of lower than 1:1.

[adraza]

To be honest I believe in Technical Analysis.
Trends, Support, Resistance, Waves.
And my Technical Analysis methods show a strong Resistance in 100.
I do not know anything about current price level. 91.55?
92.11? 93? etc.
I do not care about 90 something. It is not important.
I was just emphasizing how close we are to my threshold.

100

Alright.

A=24
B=100
X=2.5
Y=1

Interested?

is it sarcasm or misunderstanding?

Neither, it's a genuine offer. Is it stands there's 30kBTC between here and 100BTC. While I think the market will trend up in the relatively short term, there's a very good chance that it won't break 100. If it drops, stagnates, rises a little but not over 100, or even rises over 100 at 23 hours and 25 hours but is in a temporary dip at 24, you win the bet. I would bet on that, but I would have to get better than 1:1 odds. If you're really confident in your technical analysis and think that 100 is unlikely, there's no that you should be afraid of lower than 1:1.

You people are talking about these "walls" of limit orders (hear that! 30k BTC!) like they were Great Walls of China. Standing for centuries.
It is far more dynamic then that. I presume you know that most of the "action" comes from market orders that you do not see. And from cancelled limit orders and moved to the market.
But I will think about a bet for you, with better odds for you.

Still we have the trust problem.
Any ideas?

[mgio]

<crickets>

No one is going to take your ridiculous bet.

[adraza]

<crickets>

No one is going to take your ridiculous bet.

which of them?

come with an offer!

give me an idea how to keep the waged BTC safe until the end of bet!

[adraza]

The Great Random Walk Theory


What do you say, if the price would be a simple random walk what would be the odds to go to 200 (or to be precise 186=2 x present price) from now?

What about going all the way to 0?

Is it equivalent?

[checkers6676]

buy low and sell high. learn how to do that and you can just day trade like the rest of us, without stealing people's money for nothing

[adraza]

buy low and sell high. learn how to do that and you can just day trade like the rest of us, without stealing people's money for nothing

buy low sell high means being bullish and then wait.

I want to profit from the bearish market.
That is my perception, now. Maybe later I will change into a bull.
But for sure I won't put labels on people for nothing than just trying to set some deals.

[adraza]

Short term Bet for Short term bulls

A=24
B=100
X=1
Y=1.8

I will accept this bet without taking into consideration the STARTING MtGox price, higher or lower than 100.
Waiting for 1 hour.


No deals, waiting for the long term one....


LONG term Bet for LONG term bulls

A=1000
B=100
X=1
Y=2.8

I will accept this bet without taking into consideration the STARTING MtGox price, higher or lower than 100.
Waiting 48 hours.

[johnniewalker]

I just wanted to say that using MtGox as a ticker isn't the most accurate, I recommend BitStamp.

[Elwar]

I had tried bitfinex. But they crash once every hour or so. I like to have some control over my money.

I have been on BitFinex consistently for the past week or so loaning BTC to bears like you. It has been up the whole time. The site is actually easier for me to connect to than MtGox.

Maybe the site is closer to me in Afghanistan than MtGox.

[adraza]

IF
A=1000 hours
B=100
X=1


Y=?


Also I do not have a solution to the payment problem. Escrow? Something else?

[Kazu]

I am more than willing to take the bull side since I am searching for leverage. However, the price around which we are betting MUST be the current bid price. Otherwise it is simply not fair. Furthermore, I require either an escrow that we both agree on or you to pay me the BTC (i.e, you trust me), and that if the escrow has fees (obviously I won't charge any) you must pay them. You can in fact trust me, nobody has had any bad experiences with me on this forum. I am willing to do it publicly on this thread so everybody can force me to keep my word. I'm willing to do small amounts over short periods of time at the start to make sure everything is crystal clear and you expose yourself to minimal risk should you choose.

Post here (on this thread, so everyone can see) if you are interested.

EDIT: I'd rather take the short term one TBH, especially since thats what you posted first. More fun if we don't have to wait days and days. Also, you would have to trust me/the escrow for a shorter period of time.

[Kazu]

One more thing, since this reminds me of Binary Options, I'd also offer you "touch/no touch" binary shorts:

Another common form of binary option that is traded is a touch/no-touch, also called one-touch binary option. In one-touch binary option, if the price of Google's stock (NASDAQ:GOOG) is at $495 and a trader predicts that the stock will "touch" the $500 mark during the trading period he can buy a one-touch option. Once the stock's value "touches" the $500 mark, the trader would immediately earn a 60%–70% gain.

Only in this case it would be 100%.

I.e:

If within 1 hour, bitcoin goes down to $90 (or the like), you'd get twice your "bet." If it doesn't, you lose your bet.

[MrTeal]

Use Casascius' escrow tool