reactorjuno
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March 02, 2018, 01:25:13 AM |
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About Club Gowi that I was mentioning earlier, here is an example of newsletter (by sharing it I am doing nothing wrong because this one was sent for free yesterday):
Saturday March 3rd
Next issue will be sent during the first week of April.
There were two free newsletters sent last month, they included eight betting suggestions, seven of which won at average odds of 2.50 (2.73, 3.30, 2.75, 2.25, 2.33, 1.95, 2.19) ! That is not going to happen this month as there is only two previews included, but it will still serve as a sample of what the daily newsletter produces.
If any of got involved in those games last month and there was no real reason why you should, as they are only meant to give a feel for the service, but if you did and/ or wanted to see more, there are a series of offers below which give savings of up to 73% on a standard monthly clubgowi subscription.
Contents today:
1) Month ahead.
2) WTA Tennis.
3) clubgowi sample preview.
1) Month ahead:
All the European leagues are in full swing and will be for another 3-4 months yet, but two of our "summer" leagues are now underway too, or about to be with Japanese football starting last month and MLS tomorrow. JL1 is probably clubgowi's most popular league amongst subscribers, always eagerly awaited and has a huge following. We also have Champions and Europa League fooball, all our "winter" leagues and other sports too ( see tennis below) including PGA golf where we have had back to back winners in the last two weeks.
2) WTA Tennis:
We got off to a good start at the Australian Open and there will be a strong hard court emphasis to the clubgowi tennis coverage this season ,we still have nine more tournaments and 14 weeks of the sport to come this year, including both the Indian Wells (starts next week) and Miami Open events this month. The five events covered since Wimbledon last year, all hard court tournaments, have seen 53 suggestions produce a ROI of +26.89%.
3) clubgowi sample previews:
Thursday March 1st
PGA Tour: WGC - Mexico Championship
This will be held at Club de Golf Chapultepec in Naucalpan, just northwest of Mexico City for the second year running, the city is at high altitude (2,300 m) and we really need a golfer who is used to the conditions and has done well in them before. We usually discuss altitude and the effects on sportsmen a couple of times per year, that is normally in more physical events, but it is the flight of the ball in golf which will be the talking point this week. The tennis tournament in Madrid is often cited as one influenced by altitude, the Spanish capital is the highest in Europe , but only 667m above sea level, so you can imagine the difference that players will be dealing with here.
The thinner air makes shots travel farther, maybe between 10-15%, but will also fly lower, data collector TrackMan says that a typical 5-iron shot hit by a PGA Tour golfer who normally has a high ball flight (like most pros) will have a carry distance of about 195 yards and peak at 106 feet above the ground. At the WGC-Mexico Championship, that same shot will have a carry distance of 223 yards and will peak at 95 feet. That combination of added length and a lower ball flight results in shots that land with 4 mph more ball speed and an 8-degree shallower landing angle. In other words, that 5-iron is coming in lower and hotter, so stopping it on the green will be much harder.
Paul Casey is a clubgowi favourite he (far too) rarely wins but is ultra consistent and adds to his pension fund pretty much every time he tees up.My notes ahead of the 2017 season ending Tour Championship spoke about all of that, how good he is, how well we had done following him, but that until he got over the finish line again, he should not be backed to actually win an event ............
Talking of favours, how many has Paul Casey done us ? Most recent was two tournaments ago at the Dell when I wrote ..............
For today, I will finish with a few words about Paul Casey, he has turned into one of the most consistent golfers on Tour and is racking up a fortune without winning too often, he has earned well over $3m this year and $21m + in his career on Tour. The British golfer is 9-6-12-22-10-26-5-11-5-13-5 in his last 11 starts, never worse than 26th and top 15 nine times.
He holds his form very well once he finds it and has served us well in a number of big events, he was 2nd in this event last year and it plays to his strengths and he is very well placed in key stat categories, which players who go deep here need to thrive in. Most important of those is "strokes gained in approach shots", he was 3rd in that in 2015, but had to withdraw here, last year he was 11th and finished 2nd, this year he comes into this event again ranked #3 on Tour in that category and has played more rounds than the other top 6 and given that, he could stake a claim for the #1 position. Last year in the playoff series he went 31-2-2-4 and as I started these notes, he is hard to shake off his game once he finds a groove. He is expecting a child around the time of the Tour Championship, whether he will play there or not, I do not know, but that should further concentrate his mind for the next two events at least. Casey has to go close this week, he is 2.10 for top 20, 3.0-3.30 to finish top 10 and 5.5-6.5 to record his 4th top 5 in six starts and back to back here and incredibly, in his 5th playoff series event in a row ! That has to be the call , but all three markets offer value.
He landed that top 5 bet @ odds of 6.5 and is now looking to win his second ever PGA event.
I would be happy to see him do so, very happy, I think it is long, long overdue and fully deserved, but cannot side with him today. Casey is a money making machine, but has, I think, finished top 5 on 15 occasions since his last and only win in the US, if he was 5th-7th going into today, I would be all over him like a rash to finish top 5 but I am not sure about winning from the front and he will be under intense pressure . He is a new father which usually helps and doesn't need the money, but the win today if it comes along with the FedEx bonus could be worth $11.6m and you could probably add another $10m in sponsorship deals and bonus payments and that is not a normal sum to be at stake over 18 holes especially when you have not won in the US for 8 years and he has lost two playoffs in the interim.
Casey shot a Sunday 73 there , highest amongst anyone inside the top 16 to finish 5th, if he had gone into that round in 10th, he would proably have fired 68 to finish the same 5th ! The British golfer has now turned 40, passing that milestone birthday might actually help and it is not impossible he will win this year and if one comes, like London buses, a second will most likely be right behind ! Casey has played well at altitude in Europe, with several top ten finishes at Crans-sur-Sierre in the European Masters and the set up at Chapultepec has been descibed as very european. Casey played all four WGC events last season finishing 16-9-5-11 , the 16th place came here, but he shot a third best score of the weekend, clearly learned a lot as the tournament progressed and can take that knowledge into this week and any improvement should see him top ten as a minimum.
He is also in better form, arriving here last year on the back of a run of 21-12-39-16, this year 7-11-8-49 with the Genesis event (last time out this year) not really suiting him. Since the first major of 2017 Casey has teed up in 17 US Tour events, made the cut in all 17, finished top 20 in 13 and top 5 in 5 of the last 12 and is just about the most consistent golfer out there. He is almost always ranked inside the top ten on Tour for strokes-gained tee-to-green which is seen as the key stat on this course. Casey is also a very hard worker and tough on himself and knows he should have won last year, he apologised to his caddy for not winning the Tour Championship and bonus, which would have made his bag carrier and friend $1m + and the two are said to be highly motivated and confident about 2018. We are WAY ahead on our dealings with Casey and we cannot let him go unbacked this week.
1.5 units Paul Casey to finish top 10 ............3.50-3.75 general quote.
Coupe de France: Caen- Olympique Lyonnais
We have sided with Lyon in the cups recently backing them in the Europa League and last round of this competition ahead of which my notes went a lot like this ..........
Cup games in France are far more open than league fixtures and produce more goals, the last six seasons have seen 17 all Ligue 1 clashes and, ten of those (59%) have gone "over", with another five producing two goals and three of those having another one or more in extra time. We have two today in Montpellier- Lyon and Metz- Caen , both of which are priced at 2.0 + for three or more goals and each probably offers a little value. It is the former which interests me, the two teams have already met here recently in the other domestic cup competition, with Montpellier winning 4-1 just before Christmas which should give the hosts confidence and have the visitor out for revenge. I was big on the host for that and wrote ahead of the contest how I felt OL did not need further involvement in that League Cup.....
Lyon might see things differently, but I cannot really see a case for them needing further involvement in this competition. They have reached the knockout stage of the Europa League, which has already meant an additional six games and they are one of the three clubs chasing those two Champions League spots we discussed yesterday (see the Monaco notes). That is a very big deal for them, they played Champions League football for an incredible 14 straight seasons until 2013-14, but have missed out in 3/5 campaigns since, including this and desperately want to return to a competition where they almost feel a place is theirs by right. Lyon host one of the other top 4 on Sunday and Marseille also happen to be amongst their biggest rival's, they know today will be tough, having already drawn at home to Montpellier in the league last month and I feel they will focus on the bigger picture. Rafael is suspended, Pape Cheikh Diop injured, but head coach Bruno Genesio has made it clear that today will be a good opportunity to rotate his squad and he ended his press conference with these words " I want to name the best team possible to beat Marseille". That's Marseille not Montpellier !
The hosts are very comfortable in 7th , but can have few upward ambitions in the league beyond 5th and can well afford, perhaps need, to go deep in one of the domestic cup competitions. They are at home to basement club Metz at the weekend and will surely give tonight their best shot, they are without a couple of starters, one is down to injury, they other is a related precaution, but that should not overly influence their motivation to win, which has to be greater than OL's.
A Champions League spot has to remain a priority, but the last thing Lyon need right now is another loss, as, after wins over PSG in the league and Monaco in this competion things looked very rosy for them, but back to back losses to Bordeaux and Monaco in the league have damaged CL ambitions and left them playing catch up with ASM and Marseille. They need three points at home to Rennes in a couple of days time, but I would also argue their pride and confidence has been bruised and they need a result and performance tonight just to steady everything down. The last loss was incredibly painful, they led 2-0 in the Principality before allowing Monaco to equalise in the first half, but the hosts then had Keita Balde sent off before the break and subsequently lost Radamel Falcao to injury and Lyon should have just coasted home, but it was ASM who scored the late winner and OL felt not just crestfallen , but humiliated . The President even went on to Lyon TV to speak about the loss and said he felt the players were overconfident and he did not appear happy at all. I expect a reaction, but Lyon are conceding too freely ( 17 in 10 starts) and "giving away" a lot of goals......conceding six penalties since Christmas.
Montpellier usually build their game on a strong defence, but they are struggling at the back now too and have given up 10 goals in their last four starts, as many as they conceded in their first 17 Ligue 1 games this season. So we have two teams who are shipping goals, with a recent meeting producing five, playing in a competition where we expect most to play with greater freedom. Lyon are treating this far more seriously than the Coupe de la Ligue fixture and this suddenly feels like a big game for them in terms of how good this season could be. The hosts look very short in holding/central midfield positions suddenly and whilst I do think we will see goals, odds on "over" have dropped slightly asI have been typing and the more I think about this, the more I like OL. Both to score with an away win is my suggestion.
That was a pretty good preview if I say so myself and OL won 2-1 which was a bonus ! Their league form has fallen away and they have dropped too many points from winning positions and catching either Marseille or Monaco looks a tall order, as such, I think they will be motivated to progress tonight and in the Europa League and anyway, need to start to refind their consistency and any win will also help a Ligue 1 push, if it is to come. Normally we can expect more goals in these cup ties ( see above) and the last two league meetings between these clubs in this fixture have been wide open affairs, Lyon winning 2-1 here in November (Caen hit the woodwork twice), Caen winning 3-2 last season (Lyon also twice being denied by the woodwork !). I was going to be all over the "over" tonight as I do not trust the vistor defensively, but the weather was a concern and it will be very cold and wet in Caen today and then I saw the team news.....
Mariano Diaz, Nabil Fekir and Rafael did not travel to Caen with the Lyon squad, but keeper Anthony Lopes returns after missing his first league game of the season at the weekend. Diaz and Fekir have 31 league goals and nine assists (some overlap) between them, which is a massive contribution to 57 scored in total.
Before we rush to back the home side .......... Caen have Romain Genevois , Jordan Nkololo, Damien Da Silva, Adama Mbengue, Vincent Bessat and Youssef Aït Bennasser sidelined with injury and head coach Patrice Garande also spoke about a virus at the club, several others have been carrying very high temperatures and three of those are included in the squad, but have been laid low and unable to do much training at all and these comments from Garande were perhaps telling: "I have a lot of uncertainties, including sick players, they have fever, they have no legs. "We do not take any risk with the physical integrity of the players, we still have games behind, the end of the season is not tomorrow or Strasbourg (weekend league game)."
Seven of their 16 outfield players have made the equivalent of five first team appearances or less , they are very short of experienced options, certainly from the bench and given the illness situation, we do not know how strong some of those who might be called upon will be.
Nabil Fekir has missed two away league games this season for OL, they won both 5-0 (Nice and Troyes) ! Of course Diaz played up top and did score in each, but Memphis Depay notched five goals and Traore and Cornet contributed, the trio will all welcome the opportunity to be the main focus of play and to impress and maybe even thrive in the absence of the big two and will be facing a weakened opponent.
1.5 units Olympique Lyonnais -0.75 ball 2.28 asian line.
I do not normally like to use league stats for cup games, which have a different dynamic, but today they feel pertinent, Caen are weakest at home through the middle third (31st-60th min) of games, when they concede over 64% of goals, Lyon have a +16 road goal difference, that is +15 in the first hour, + 1 over the final 30 minutes, Caen are usually strongest through the final 15 when they have a 5-0 record here, but we can today, given their situation, expect energy levels to decrease more than usual late in the contest and the host not to make the most of their usual up tempo finish.
Caennais : Brice Samba (g), Rémy Vercoutre (g) - Frédéric Guilbert, Ismaël Diomandé, Alexander Djiku, Florian Le Joncour, Yoël Armougom, Durel Avounou - Baïssama Sankoh, Jessy Deminguet, Julien Féret, Stef Peeters, Jan Repas - Ivan Santini, Enzo Crivelli, Ronny Rodelin, Hervé Bazile, Timo Stavitski.
Lyonnais : Anthony Lopes (g), Mathieu Gorgelin (g) - Kenny Tete, Marcelo, Mouctar Diakhaby, Jérémy Morel, Fernando Marçal, Ferland Mendy - Lucas Tousart, Tanguy Ndombélé, Jordan Ferri, Houssem Aouar, Pape Cheikh Diop - Maxwel Cornet, Memphis Depay, Amine Gouiri, Bertrand Traoré, Myziane Maolida.
I hope you can appreciate from the previews above what we are trying to do in terms of giving readers options for today and beyond and also "in running" with often (usually) detailed analysis.
Good Luck.
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So as you can see, this guy is a hard worker.
I know all subscribers won't read the full analysis before placing bets, because as I said the odds drop quickly (unfortunately).
I will see how the bets of this week-end fair (especially Lyon).
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