And now - the sucker's rally

[wobber]

The "crash" looks like a minor speed bump  when you zoom out a bit:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igWeeklyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zl

True. But it could be also a signal for more prolonged downtrend.

My questions is: what is the average cost to produce a coin now? add a 10%, hell, add 20% more and you get a absolely great price for BTC

[GotBitCoins]

The psychology of those replying on this thread tell me that the bear is still in its infancy

Definitely! Reading the responses to my thread - I am now even more sure that Bitcoin shall be traded at much much lower prices...

[anu]

But then it shall drop and shall become under-valued for a while - let's say 10$ ??

GotBitCoins

In 2011 everyone expected Bitcoin to die. Only complete morons will assume that today. Everyone knows that another default like Cyprus is just a matter of time. Considering the youth unemployment in Greece and Spain, a civil war there is imminent, with everything that entails (forced war bonds, outright confiscation....)

Argentinians get to know the advantages of Bitcoin while the government goes full scale totalitarian these days. If you want to sell Mendoza wines or beef, there are 2 possibilities: Get payment through the banking system and lose 60% at the official exchange to Pesos, or get paid in Bitcoin.

And with all these possibilities of massive upturn, you expect $10?

[Luno]

The power production cost of Bitcoin used to be a determining factor of price where most people interested in Bitcoin were miners.

Since the start of the run up to the halving, from around August last year, the expectation of future scarcity has been the driving factor.

This years media attention and promise of global commercialization is a factor several times greater than other previous factors combined.

There is currently no real sensible way of determining market value, the only businesses publishing consumer figures are exchanges and that type of customer base says little about real life adaptation.

There is a lot of promise of interest of big business. on the other hand, Legal framework and accounting practices inside Bitcoin are not there yet, so if governments or established institutions take a critical position towards Bitcoin in general. A temporary or permanent collapse may be the result.

International banking can overnight choose to no longer deal with anything Bitcoin related. The banks embracing Bitcoin now can change their attitude just as fast if they are put under pressure.

So it makes no sense to talk about a future reasonable price.

 

[wobber]

But then it shall drop and shall become under-valued for a while - let's say 10$ ??

GotBitCoins

In 2011 everyone expected Bitcoin to die. Only complete morons will assume that today. Everyone knows that another default like Cyprus is just a matter of time. Considering the youth unemployment in Greece and Spain, a civil war there is imminent, with everything that entails (forced war bonds, outright confiscation....)

Argentinians get to know the advantages of Bitcoin while the government goes full scale totalitarian these days. If you want to sell Mendoza wines or beef, there are 2 possibilities: Get payment through the banking system and lose 60% at the official exchange to Pesos, or get paid in Bitcoin.

And with all these possibilities of massive upturn, you expect $10?

The it would be more than triple digits. But by then, hope that the system is good and we can support that masses getting in. 3 major exchanges with one being FuckGox?

And what about those that buy coins ad let's say 2421 dollars to pay their employees and next day coins are 2634? profit right? what about the stupid employess that will hold a few days more? with these price swings I don't want to be paid in bitcoins. What goes but cand go down.

[superduh]

no guys. you are all wrong.
this member is an expert. he joined one month ago and knows everything that he is talking.
make him feel good that he is so smart.

[GotBitCoins]

The "crash" looks like a minor speed bump  when you zoom out a bit:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igWeeklyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zl

Yea! you are right - it's just a little whinney nothing of a bump - price should continue on - according to my extrapolation we are talking about 10,000$ per BTC in October...

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/42701585/to%20infinity%20and%20beyond.jpg

Actually - more likely... I mean more likely than your little bump story that we shall face the same crash just like in 2011 - so it will take us to sub 10$ in 8 months...

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/42701585/same%20decline.jpg

I am not saying that this will be the scenario - I am just saying that... it's more likely than your little bump thesis.

This forum is going to be real quiet by then, especially the speculation sub-section....

GotBitCoins.

[wobber]

If we have a good consumer base, I'm roughly saying 1 in 5 people that have internet, and by consumer base add everyone that knows about bitcoin and could buy it, we eventually need no more banks.

We could use OTC with fellows in the same city or even barter. When people will barter with bitcoins, that will be an amazing time...

[anu]

And what about those that buy coins ad let's say 2421 dollars to pay their employees and next day coins are 2634? profit right? what about the stupid employess that will hold a few days more? with these price swings I don't want to be paid in bitcoins. What goes but cand go down.

The vola would stop if people would stop panic buying or selling. ATM the price is at 116. If you want to sell, why not selling at 120? Or buying at 110? The price went through both 110 and 120 dozens of time in the last few weeks. It will do so again. And again, and again.

If 5% here learn that adding liquidity to the market saves them money while taking liquidity costs them, the price will stabilize. Listen: I will continue to take your money if you continue to take liquidity! Stop inducing vola. Learn patience.

Why am I saying this? Because I want the Bitcoin price at 10,000. Which is where we will go if you stop fooling around. I don't want to make a few bugs from the vola you induce.


PS:
If people would start spending Bitcoin and earning Bitcoin, the price would stabilize. You'd be surprised about the bargains you get with Bitcoin.

[GotBitCoins]

no guys. you are all wrong.
this member is an expert. he joined one month ago and knows everything that he is talking.
make him feel good that he is so smart.

How old are you sweetie? who cares about the date of joining the forum? You need to live long enough and watch the price of stocks and commodities and go through several bubbles to be able to identify a bubble. It's amazing how the price is following the same pattern - how on the first day after the crash - people are saying that the crash is over and the price indeed went up to 200$... and then it's amazing how the price goes lower than all expectations just to rise again and pull everybody in again into this sucker's rally. It happend so many times in the past - just google 'financial bubble' and you won't believe it - there's almost always that bump that takes the price real high - it sometimes almost goes beyond the top of the bubble value - it lurs you in - you are just starting to believe that wow - it's going up forever!...

GotBitCoins.

[wobber]

And what about those that buy coins ad let's say 2421 dollars to pay their employees and next day coins are 2634? profit right? what about the stupid employess that will hold a few days more? with these price swings I don't want to be paid in bitcoins. What goes but cand go down.

The vola would stop if people would stop panic buying or selling. ATM the price is at 116. If you want to sell, why not selling at 120? Or buying at 110? The price went through both 110 and 120 dozens of time in the last few weeks. It will do so again. And again, and again.

If 5% here learn that adding liquidity to the market saves them money while taking liquidity costs them, the price will stabilize. Listen: I will continue to take your money if you continue to take liquidity! Stop inducing vola. Learn patience.

Why am I saying this? Because I want the Bitcoin price at 10,000. Which is where we will go if you stop fooling around. I don't want to make a few bugs from the vola you induce.


PS:
If people would start spending Bitcoin and earning Bitcoin, the price would stabilize. You'd be surprised about the bargains you get with Bitcoin.

Everybody want's it at 10,000 but no hope for 12 months.

[GotBitCoins]

But then it shall drop and shall become under-valued for a while - let's say 10$ ??

GotBitCoins

In 2011 everyone expected Bitcoin to die. Only complete morons will assume that today. Everyone knows that another default like Cyprus is just a matter of time. Considering the youth unemployment in Greece and Spain, a civil war there is imminent, with everything that entails (forced war bonds, outright confiscation....)

Argentinians get to know the advantages of Bitcoin while the government goes full scale totalitarian these days. If you want to sell Mendoza wines or beef, there are 2 possibilities: Get payment through the banking system and lose 60% at the official exchange to Pesos, or get paid in Bitcoin.

And with all these possibilities of massive upturn, you expect $10?

We don't know the true price of BitCoin right? But even at 20$ it was in a bubble right? I remember I first heard about bitCoin when it was 14$ and in the 10 days that it took me to wire my funds to MtGox it went up to almost 20$. So that's a whopping rise of 50% already!! and I mean it was up already thousands of % by that time for the true early adopters - yes? So suppose that 10$ is a pre bubble price and now there's a HUGE scare all around the world and the price of BitCoin goes up to wholly cow - 20$ !!!! WOWWwww!!! so high!!! it's like you say that Gold which is trading at 1400$ goes to 2800$ because of this cyprus scare... - and it doesn't. 200$ is 10X that - it's absolutely outrageously high price. Surely it will collapse, and I don't know yet if when it crashes I will use my gains in order to join the 5K BTC club because frankly after such a parabola and such a crash - it may never go up again.

GotBitCoins

[superduh]

no guys. you are all wrong.
this member is an expert. he joined one month ago and knows everything that he is talking.
make him feel good that he is so smart.

How old are you sweetie? who cares about the date of joining the forum? You need to live long enough and watch the price of stocks and commodities and go through several bubbles to be able to identify a bubble. It's amazing how the price is following the same pattern - how on the first day after the crash - people are saying that the crash is over and the price indeed went up to 200$... and then it's amazing how the price goes lower than all expectations just to rise again and pull everybody in again into this sucker's rally. It happend so many times in the past - just google 'financial bubble' and you won't believe it - there's almost always that bump that takes the price real high - it sometimes almost goes beyond the top of the bubble value - it lurs you in - you are just starting to believe that wow - it's going up forever!...

GotBitCoins.

well, if you claim to know a lot i would think that something more along the lines of "MTGOX CRASHED DDOS LAGGED"-
fundamentals of bitcoins didn't change. mtgox and bitcoins are supposed to be different things. i don't think you understand that.
do tell me how a company goes from $0 to billions in a matter of a few years. google went from nothing to billions. no, that makes no sense! must be a bubble. google is worth $1. why don't you go back to trading stocks and commodities that you are so familiar with. why don't you also use the tulip mania graph that every "expert" likes to bring up. because tulips 300 years ago and digital currency are the same exact thing.

[nobbynobbynoob]

Everybody want's it at 10,000 but no hope for 12 months.

Yeah, I can't see $10/mBTC coming within a year, unless it's a pump/dump by Big Finance. I think I might sell in that bubble situation (a real bubble, that is, not this $50/$115/$266 noise).

If bitcoin survives and is successful in a few years' time, effectively answering the questions about its scalability, we may well see something like $10+/mBTC, though.

[rpietila]

Dump your coins and risk you grandchildren pissing on your grave and saying "this fucker was lucky enough to be in the right place at the right time, but had no brain, balls and heart to hold on to his coins."

+1 

[Le Happy Merchant]

I would bet every mBTC I have that Bitcoin never reaches $10. But since you can't prove that something will never happen, I will just say it.

You can still bet. When it hits $10, you lost

Exactly my point, I can lose, but never win. So I won't make that bet.

[anu]

We don't know the true price of BitCoin right?

What is a true price? The government approved price? The inner value? What's the inner value of gold - it's just protons, neutrons and electrons, just like pish. It even shares the color.

Gold which is trading at 1400$ goes to 2800$ because of this cyprus scare... - and it doesn't.

The gold price is manipulated like hell.

200$ is 10X that - it's absolutely outrageously high price. Surely it will collapse, and I don't know yet if when it crashes I will use my gains in order to join the 5K BTC club because frankly after such a parabola and such a crash - it may never go up again.

Remember, Bitcoin was dead, dead, dead after the crash in June 2011 - lost like 95%.

Sure, if the morons drive the price up 10% a day like they did, take their money. I did, too. Bought everything back at 64 and 54. And I am in the 5K club. Easily. So the morons handed me almost a Million $ - Falkvinge got probably way more than I got. Remember, it is a zero-sum game. That's why I am saying: Stop panic buying, stop panic selling. Add liquidity, don't take liquidity. You profit from the morons, you stabilize the price.

[Dr.Steve]

The graph like pattern can be considered a fractal. And so on any given day or moment, we can find the exact same pattern. The last 12 hours looks like this!

So, as the time horizon extends, and the graph gets larger, we shall see the same pattern on an extended scale. say 2660 to 550 stabilizing at 1150, only to move to 22600, etc.

But the patter remains the same, just the scale differs.

my two satoshis.

[bitcon]

why didn't you label your graph like this?

+1  ^this

[GotBitCoins]

We don't know the true price of BitCoin right?

What is a true price? The government approved price? The inner value? What's the inner value of gold - it's just protons, neutrons and electrons, just like pish. It even shares the color.

Gold which is trading at 1400$ goes to 2800$ because of this cyprus scare... - and it doesn't.

The gold price is manipulated like hell.

200$ is 10X that - it's absolutely outrageously high price. Surely it will collapse, and I don't know yet if when it crashes I will use my gains in order to join the 5K BTC club because frankly after such a parabola and such a crash - it may never go up again.

Remember, Bitcoin was dead, dead, dead after the crash in June 2011 - lost like 95%.

Sure, if the morons drive the price up 10% a day like they did, take their money. I did, too. Bought everything back at 64 and 54. And I am in the 5K club. Easily. So the morons handed me almost a Million $ - Falkvinge got probably way more than I got. Remember, it is a zero-sum game. That's why I am saying: Stop panic buying, stop panic selling. Add liquidity, don't take liquidity. You profit from the morons, you stabilize the price.

It's just that I am not so sure that if and when the price shall drop to say 20$ - if then I will be able to commit to the 5K club - because this is serious money still, and the scenario according to which this whole thing goes down to 10$, down to 5$, 0.5$, zip - is possible.

I keep on thinking about what Satoshi was trying to avoid - he tried to avoid BitCoin to get publicity, he wanted the software to strengthen, he was afraid of the burning match effect and thus when wikileaks asked to adopt BitCoin - he tried to avoid that saying

"The project needs to grow gradually so the software can be strengthened along the
way. I make this appeal to Wikileaks not to try to use Bitcoin. Bitcoin is a small beta
community in its infancy. You would not stand to get more than pocket change, and the
heat you would bring would likely destroy us at this stage."

GotBitCoins