Bitcoin's Dystopian Future

[Summer,69]

And then, you know, global warming.
Bill Gates is optimistic for the future though. We should try to be too

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[ipnone5only]

And then, you know, global warming.
Bill Gates is optimistic for the future though. We should try to be too

I tend to agree with you. article is full of FUD and shows dark side. bitcoin is nowhere near there, it even cannot interact with existing bank network so far. this view of future seems very, very distant to me. oh, and i don't have any problem with people richer or poorer than me. do you?

[QuestionAuthority]

And then, you know, global warming.
Bill Gates is optimistic for the future though. We should try to be too

I tend to agree with you. article is full of FUD and shows dark side. bitcoin is nowhere near there, it even cannot interact with existing bank network so far. this view of future seems very, very distant to me. oh, and i don't have any problem with people richer or poorer than me. do you?

I have a problem with poor people. They're kind of smelly and scare me a little because they have nothing to lose.

[earnabit]

It would be hard to convince me that bitcoin is anything more than just another great free market innovation. It will make lives easier and cheaper for humans thus increasing overall satisfaction with life. Hopefully it will just slowly replace the dollar and all the early investors will move up a wrung or two in society

[gollum]

It's wrong to assume that cryptography will lead to a chaotic and dystopian future.
Cryptography is just a tool like knife, it can be used for good or for bad.

Some people might use this tool for bad which will disrupt the society negatively, but as a defense response the society will eventually evolve back to what we had before urbanization: strong local communities where people in the local community trust each other but are extremely suspicious to outsiders. Our social relations will be our greatest defense against possible threats from the outside.

Changing the parameters of a system will lead to instability short term but a new equilibrium emerges always.

[spooderman]

well hello again this thread

[BillyBobZorton]

It's wrong to assume that cryptography will lead to a chaotic and dystopian future.
Cryptography is just a tool like knife, it can be used for good or for bad.

Some people might use this tool for bad which will disrupt the society negatively, but as a defense response the society will eventually evolve back to what we had before urbanization: strong local communities where people in the local community trust each other but are extremely suspicious to outsiders. Our social relations will be our greatest defense against possible threats from the outside.

Changing the parameters of a system will lead to instability short term but a new equilibrium emerges always.

But to reach this "equilibrium" we may lead again towards a certain degree centralization, like the coin Bill Gates wants.
Overall I think equilibrium is impossible in total anarco capitalism and it always ends up again with certain degrees of centralization.

[thaaanos]

Changing the parameters of a system will lead to instability short term but a new equilibrium emerges always.

No!
Because the system parameters are ever changing and equilibrium is never reached, but we are mired in a perpetual instability.
this is also why free market doesnot work as advertised, The invisible Hand suffers from parkinson

[manselr]

Changing the parameters of a system will lead to instability short term but a new equilibrium emerges always.

No!
Because the system parameters are ever changing and equilibrium is never reached, but we are mired in a perpetual instability.
this is also why free market doesnot work as advertised, The invisible Hand suffers from parkinson

"The invisible Hand suffers from parkinson" lol great way to put it.

I agree with you and the former poster. Life is all about trying to reach that equilibrium, but knowing it can never be actually reached.

[Grg]

@op; This, sir, is a genius brainstorm! 


I've spent countless night thinking on the subject "adept or perish/block chain" and time after time I get a little confused why no government hasn't adepted already and made their own BTC 2.0 and let people change it vs country-currency 1:1.
With some programs and apps it would make life sooooo..oo....ooooo much easier for 99,9% of the population.

Why aint this already real?
My answer always boils down to three words;
1; Banks
2; Money
3; Power


The block chain is the future, it's UNDENIABLE!

Once again; Thanks for a genius brainstorm!

-Grg

[Cryddit]

Bitcoin is not really economically different from gold.

The supply is quite limited, it is durable, it can be used as a medium of exchange, and people have trouble keeping their individual stashes of it secure against robbery.

Therefore if we want to see Bitcoin's future, we should look at gold's past and present.

We should expect to see people paying online wallets a fee each year to keep their bitcoin safe, the same way people used to pay banks to keep their gold in the vault. We should expect to see the companies that operate those "vaults" buying insurance against theft, the way banks used to buy insurance against theft.  Then we should expect to see them getting laws passed that force their insurance expense to be borne by taxpayers at large, rather than just the people whose Bitcoin they're holding. 

Over time, we should expect to see Bitcoin concentrated in the hands of financial institutions and governments who will then loan it out - then issue promissory notes against it, operating on fractional reserves of it, and then.....  back to fiat currency. 

Face it, when was the last time ordinary people used gold or silver coins in their hands for daily transactions?  Well, Bitcoin is going to eventually occupy the same place that gold and silver do in our current economy; a place for investment capital to flee to, as a last-resort inflation hedge when the productive economy is administered by miss Helena Handbasket.  It will not likely be used by ordinary people.

[StevenS]

Bitcoin is not really economically different from gold.

The big difference between gold and Bitcoin is that you can send bitcoin over the Internet.
But your analogy still holds.

[ebliever]

I'm glad this thread has come back up so I could see it - the author's thinking is very similar to my own, regarding the "tipping point" risk and resulting governmental crisis and social unrest. A few thoughts:

1. I'm relatively more sanguine about the kidnapping issue because kidnappers can be tracked and caught using many tools unrelated to the ransom payment mechanism. So long as the punishments are severe, I don't see crypto driving a surge. (As the father of four young children, I hope and pray I'm right!)

2. There will be great envy towards early adopters when the whole world has to flee to bitcoin amidst a collapse of fiat currencies. But although it will happen quickly, and although some early adopters will no doubt be overnight tycoons of great wealth, I think the pace will be such that a large chunk of the population will at least gain a toehold in crypto. Some will lose a lot in the transition, others (particularly young, indebted people will new home loans in fiat) will come out ahead. And since those young, currently poor and indebted people are the biggest risk in a riot environment, the fact that many of them will be coming out ahead is comforting.

It's also worth pointing out that there is still a lot of wealth tied up in physical property, real estate and so on. Stocks of companies that survive the transition to crypto will retain their value, while bondholders and T-bill holders in fiat currencies will lose entirely. Again, younger people are more inclined to hold stocks whereas older people have the bonds and T-bills and CDs, so unless you fear a bunch of rioting senior citizens we may be able to avoid a zombie apocalypse.  (Or maybe a bunch of rioters from a nursing home will _be_ the zombie apocalypse? :-)

[visual111]

Each step toward utopia is a step toward dystopia...the deciding factor will be global cultural values

[lunarboy]

Ironically if you really believe in a bitcoin future, now is the time to run up massive fiat debts, as logically they will be inflated away to mean nothing against any bitcoin holdings.

I do feel the problem of the technology illiterate old folk, with their life savings and pensions in the bank needs to be thought about some more. If things play out as predicted they will be left with nothing. (unless banks and pension fund managers, manage to stay ahead of the curve and divest so of thier portfolios into gold/bitcoin that is)

food for thought.  

[Adrian-x]

the Dystopian Future, is ironically not in Bitcoins future, the image projected by the OP is an extreme example of the Fiat world we live in.

On the topic of shorting Fiat and going long Bitcoin in anticipation of inflation, the jury is still out.
There is a lot of talk about removing cash, and having electronic currencies with negative interest rates and deflation. In this scenario a Central Bank can still manage the herd and drive it away from Bitcoin.

Don't think you will be paid to have loan in fiat, you wont, that privilege is for the elites in Fiats Dystopian Future.  

[Cruxer]

Very interesting read - but to be trusthful, while I might agree with you, there is no point in predicting the future and then try and avoid the future you've imagined!

You have no idea what everyone else is planning for the same future!

Agree, but its good for future of things when diffirent people think of many possible outcomes.

[thejaytiesto]

Bitcoin is not really economically different from gold.

The big difference between gold and Bitcoin is that you can send bitcoin over the Internet.
But your analogy still holds.

Bitcoin is hugely different to Gold and defeats it on every single aspect, except the psychological one since gold is still king of wealth, luxury and all that crap which is deeply ingrained into peoples minds from birth. But eventually the objectively superior pragmatic reasons to use BTC over Gold will dethrone it as the to-go safe haven.

[jubalix]

the Dystopian Future, is ironically not in Bitcoins future, the image projected by the OP is an extreme example of the Fiat world we live in.

On the topic of shorting Fiat and going long Bitcoin in anticipation of inflation, the jury is still out.
There is a lot of talk about removing cash, and having electronic currencies with negative interest rates and deflation. In this scenario a Central Bank can still manage the herd and drive it away from Bitcoin.

Don't think you will be paid to have loan in fiat, you wont, that privilege is for the elites in Fiats Dystopian Future.  

IF they do remove cash....and I can see them trying, It will make something like BTC defacto cash worldwide which would be a huge boost to BTC as that would be quite large.

[QuestionAuthority]

I don't think the OP of this topic even comes here anymore. I see him in the mastercoin/omni discussions on reddit occasionally. Two years ago he talks about a future for Bitcoin that I don't see materializing. I see governments that have proven to be quite effective at controlling Bitcoin with current legislation. Government fiat that isn't struggling or failing as expected. Tor which, in his example, could be used for awful things like child slavery is being penetrated and the Ross Ulbrichts of the world are being caught and prosecuted. But the most interesting thing that's happened is in the opposite direction of a dystopian future. Main stream business is taking to Bitcoin like a moth to a flame and the price seems to be stabilizing.