post-fork price prediction for BTC + BTU

[monsanto]

One of BTC's big selling points is the network effect, and if you split you obviously will have, at least initially, a decreased network.  How bad will probably depend on how split they are.  If it's one chain at 95% of pre-fork hash rate and the other at 5% then I think the price damage will be a lot less then it will be as we'd approach a 50/50 split.  In fact, based on tons[1] of incontrovertible[2] evidence[3], I will create that metric.  After a split, total price (BTC+BTU) will equal that of the pre-fork BTC price multiplied by the percentage of the total hash rate that comes from the longest chain.

BTC_price + BTU_price = (Longest chain hashrate)/(Combined hashrate)

So, if it forks near $1000, then after as the hash rate of the two forks approach 50/50 we will approach a 50% price drop, so BTC+BTU = $500.  But if say the largest chain has 90% of hashrate, then we will see prices around BTC+BTU = $900.




references:
1. http://www.breitbart.com/
2. http://www.foxnews.com/
3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/

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[Iranus]

Well as I recall BU requires 75% miner support to proceed.  So I would think that the majority of people would move to the new coin after adoption, resulting in a fall of old coin prices and, arguably, a collapse.  However, this may not be the case because miner support may not relate to investor support - some of the monopolies in Bitcoin mining, such as Bitmain, are in favour of BU despite wider investor support sometimes being in favour of SegWit.

[mindrust]

At least half of what it is at that time. Depending on how many of us gonna hold or dump. Free bitcoins will be moving one side to the other, and some of them will be moving towards the $$$. It means HF will be doing its best for the Fiat holders. Holding btc during and after the HF is pure gambling.

[monsanto]

Well as I recall BU requires 75% miner support to proceed.  So I would think that the majority of people would move to the new coin after adoption, resulting in a fall of old coin prices and, arguably, a collapse.  However, this may not be the case because miner support may not relate to investor support - some of the monopolies in Bitcoin mining, such as Bitmain, are in favour of BU despite wider investor support sometimes being in favour of SegWit.

Yes, good point.  To even initiate BU they have to reach their critical level.  My analysis then would have to be applied more in the days and weeks that followed, as the dust settles.

[monsanto]

At least half of what it is at that time. Depending on how many of us gonna hold or dump. Free bitcoins will be moving one side to the other, and some of them will be moving towards the $$$. It means HF will be doing its best for the Fiat holders. Holding btc during and after the HF is pure gambling.

Yes, another thing you just made me think of: Core will dump on BU, and BU will try to dump on core.. all at the worst time for the other coin. We will have dumpwars^tm between the two.  You know what that means?  Satoshi might have the final say if he moves his coins during a dumpwar^tm

[anonbit992]

At least half of what it is at that time. Depending on how many of us gonna hold or dump. Free bitcoins will be moving one side to the other, and some of them will be moving towards the $$$. It means HF will be doing its best for the Fiat holders. Holding btc during and after the HF is pure gambling.

Yes, another thing you just made me think of: Core will dump on BU, and BU will try to dump on core.. all at the worst time for the other coin. We will have dumpwars^tm between the two.  You know what that means?  Satoshi might have the final say if he moves his coins during a dumpwar^tm

Damn! that would be scary for everyone! No wonder why people are chasing Alt coins now. BTC dominance has fallen from 81 percent to 75 percent. Money is going into Alts. If things happen the way you say, then it is one of best time to be alive. 

In worst case scenario, we will see altcoins such as Dash, monero, zcash, ether, ether classic gaining a big share of bitcoin and also the next big, game changing DAPP could grab the attention of the investors and traders.

[Henkkaa]

I don't think that's what will happen at all. I strongly believe that Bitcoin Unlimited will fail and Bitcoin Core developers will take care of the blocksize issue. If Bitcoin Unlimited does come in action though, I have no idea what I will do.
However, now is a good time to be buying strong altcoins, such as Monero or Ethereum, as their price will go up as bitcoin goes down. I've divested a big part of my bitcoin holdings in various good altcoins.

[DRPD]

I don't think that's what will happen at all. I strongly believe that Bitcoin Unlimited will fail and Bitcoin Core developers will take care of the blocksize issue. If Bitcoin Unlimited does come in action though, I have no idea what I will do.
However, now is a good time to be buying strong altcoins, such as Monero or Ethereum, as their price will go up as bitcoin goes down. I've divested a big part of my bitcoin holdings in various good altcoins.

i'm with and you. my alt coin bags are very heavy now i support bitcoin core too, because it is essentiell for of the decentralized aspec in my opinion.
i guess it is a very bumpy road ahead for btc next 3-6 months or so.

[monsanto]

Something Bitfinex has released is interesting, and kind of is related to my equation:

Chain Split Tokens
March 18, 2017
Today, Bitfinex proudly introduces trading on Chain Split Tokens (CST). The first such product of its kind, CSTs will allow Bitfinex customers to speculate on future fork events of the Bitcoin blockchain, specifically, the potential fork between Bitcoin Core and Bitcoin Unlimited. We are designating these CSTs as BCC (Bitcoin Core) and BCU (Bitcoin Unlimited).

CSTs will trade as BTC and USD pairs, initially without margin, and as will any other product with list, we will reevaluate that decision if there is sufficient liquidity.

Users will be able to create CSTs by “splitting” a bitcoin through the Token Manager (located in the Order Type drop down menu of the sidebar order ticket). Once split, the BTC will be removed from your account for each BCC and BCU added. Through the same Token Manager, you will be able to reverse this process at anytime, trading in equal numbers of BCC and BCU to extract BTC.

If no fork occurs by December 31, 2017, then BCU will expire worthless and BTC will be given in exchange for each BCC holder. If, however, there is a fork, specifically Bitcoin Unlimited, then, as soon as we list Bitcoin Unlimited, we will exchange BCU tokens for Bitcoin Unlimited tokens as well as retiring BCC tokens in favor of Bitcoin Core tokens. More detailed information can be found in the Chains Split Token Terms and Conditions.

We are planning a few additional enhancements including a realtime display of total CSTs as well as segregated cold storage for the bitcoins that have been split, which we will periodically settle to and from our hot wallet.

tl;dr: Bitfinex is letting people deposit BTC to get BCC and BCU (tokens bitfinex created).  BCC represents core side, and BCU is unlimited. So you deposit 1 BTC you get 1 BTC and 1 BCU.  You can then trade those and if there's a fork they turn into the real thing.  If there isn't a fork by the end of the year the BCU is worthless and BCC reverts to BTC.

[Henkkaa]

tl;dr: Bitfinex is letting people deposit BTC to get BCC and BCU (tokens bitfinex created).  BCC represents core side, and BCU is unlimited. So you deposit 1 BTC you get 1 BTC and 1 BCU.  You can then trade those and if there's a fork they turn into the real thing.  If there isn't a fork by the end of the year the BCU is worthless and BCC reverts to BTC.

Does that then mean, that if Bitcoin Unlimited "wins", people holding bitcoins in Bitfinex don't get a corresponding about of Bitcoin Unlimited on their account? If so, I would think that is quite worrysome, atleast I wouldn't keep my coins there for a week or 2.

I'm glad Poloniex made their statement and relieved my worries. Everyone holding bitcoin in Poloniex at the time of a possible BU hardfork will get a corresponding amount of BU credited to their account.

[DRPD]

tl;dr: Bitfinex is letting people deposit BTC to get BCC and BCU (tokens bitfinex created).  BCC represents core side, and BCU is unlimited. So you deposit 1 BTC you get 1 BTC and 1 BCU.  You can then trade those and if there's a fork they turn into the real thing.  If there isn't a fork by the end of the year the BCU is worthless and BCC reverts to BTC.

Does that then mean, that if Bitcoin Unlimited "wins", people holding bitcoins in Bitfinex don't get a corresponding about of Bitcoin Unlimited on their account? If so, I would think that is quite worrysome, atleast I wouldn't keep my coins there for a week or 2.

I'm glad Poloniex made their statement and relieved my worries. Everyone holding bitcoin in Poloniex at the time of a possible BU hardfork will get a corresponding amount of BU credited to their account.

i guess this counts for most exchanges, bitstamp, bittrex ans so on ... i expect no value from btu and will dump asap
is still hope there will be no fork

From Charlie Shrem on Twitter
"If segwit is a short term solution, why not activate now, & if it's not enough BitcoinUnlimited can split later ?"

can't agree more

this whole fork discusion only creates a lot of uncertainty which is never good for any market

just my 2 cents

[monsanto]

tl;dr: Bitfinex is letting people deposit BTC to get BCC and BCU (tokens bitfinex created).  BCC represents core side, and BCU is unlimited. So you deposit 1 BTC you get 1 BTC and 1 BCU.  You can then trade those and if there's a fork they turn into the real thing.  If there isn't a fork by the end of the year the BCU is worthless and BCC reverts to BTC.

Does that then mean, that if Bitcoin Unlimited "wins", people holding bitcoins in Bitfinex don't get a corresponding about of Bitcoin Unlimited on their account? If so, I would think that is quite worrysome, atleast I wouldn't keep my coins there for a week or 2.

I'm glad Poloniex made their statement and relieved my worries. Everyone holding bitcoin in Poloniex at the time of a possible BU hardfork will get a corresponding amount of BU credited to their account.

Well they signed that letter with the other exchanges:
https://www.bitfinex.com/bitcoin_hardfork_statement

It's confusing because now with bitfinex we have BTC, BCC tokens, and BCU tokens. If there is a fork then BCC becomes BTC, and BCU becomes BTU.  If you are just holding BTC on the exchange then it sounds like you get BTC and BTU but if for some reason something is weird with the BTU chain Bitfinex may not give you your equivalent BTU's.  Since they are making the two possible chains tradeable against one another I'd say the chances are increased that if you held your coins on Bitfinex you'd get both chains coins.  IMO it's very unlikely they wouldn't provide you with both if there's a fork.

[dothebeats]

At least half of what it is at that time. Depending on how many of us gonna hold or dump. Free bitcoins will be moving one side to the other, and some of them will be moving towards the $$$. It means HF will be doing its best for the Fiat holders. Holding btc during and after the HF is pure gambling.

Yes, another thing you just made me think of: Core will dump on BU, and BU will try to dump on core.. all at the worst time for the other coin. We will have dumpwars^tm between the two.  You know what that means?  Satoshi might have the final say if he moves his coins during a dumpwar^tm

Which is very unlikely to say the least, but still a probability to be honest. He may have indirectlyhelp bitcoin on this current point in time for all we know, and he might do just that if in case a hard fork happens. However, whether the coins move or not, it's not like satoshi is some aort of god who will be silencing each parties by just moving his coins around to show support; it's the interest of the mining companies + investors that would be followed still since they control a major part of the hash rate.

[manselr]

One of BTC's big selling points is the network effect, and if you split you obviously will have, at least initially, a decreased network.  How bad will probably depend on how split they are.  If it's one chain at 95% of pre-fork hash rate and the other at 5% then I think the price damage will be a lot less then it will be as we'd approach a 50/50 split.  In fact, based on tons[1] of incontrovertible[2] evidence[3], I will create that metric.  After a split, total price (BTC+BTU) will equal that of the pre-fork BTC price multiplied by the percentage of the total hash rate that comes from the longest chain.

BTC_price + BTU_price = (Longest chain hashrate)/(Combined hashrate)

So, if it forks near $1000, then after as the hash rate of the two forks approach 50/50 we will approach a 50% price drop, so BTC+BTU = $500.  But if say the largest chain has 90% of hashrate, then we will see prices around BTC+BTU = $900.




references:
1. http://www.breitbart.com/
2. http://www.foxnews.com/
3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/

Bitcoin Unlimited will probably crash hard, maybe after a quick pump and dump. The market is not going to support a coin that is made of a team of amateurs that are known for their bugs, no matter how much hashrate that chinese guy throws on it.

I predict a lot of money can be made if you sell BTU for BTC.

[LuanX3]

I don't think it will drop bitcoin prices that greatly, unless the whole world will see that BTU will be much better than the current BTC. Similar to what happened to ETH and ETC where people moved on to using ETH more than ETC. I still believe that BTC will drop by more than half when it happens. It will just depend on how well people will react to the new coin.

[chiguireitor]

So this thread aligns a lot with the #fomo #rekt 350 mind set i've been reading around....

However, what we know, and what whales do is completely different.

My suggestion would be hodl.... look at eth+etc and let it give a lesson from the past.

[quake313]

So this thread aligns a lot with the #fomo #rekt 350 mind set i've been reading around....

However, what we know, and what whales do is completely different.

My suggestion would be hodl.... look at eth+etc and let it give a lesson from the past.

Unless you're day-trading or like to gamble, I'd hodl and see what happens.

With all the problems in BU, I can't imagine it would succeed... BUT, you never know?

[monsanto]

I have a new equation.  The chances (x) of a hard fork are x = [-BTC_price + 1100] / 600

Or, the BTC_price = 1100 - 600x   

So, right now with the price at around $960 we get x = [-960+1100]/600 = 0.23

We've got a 23% chance of a chain split 

[c1oud]

As exchanges have different approaches i belive BTU won't find a support from initial coin holders. By different approaches I mean a position of polloniex on btc fork regarding btc loaned "If you have Bitcoin on loan at the time of the fork, you do not have it on balance and therefore you cannot receive corresponding Bitcoin Unlimited.".

Imagine a time moment when change occurs, and huge amount of coins are in hands of users who loaned them. They might have used them to buy other forks but if they didnt especially for the purpose of holding bitcoin during fork? They straight receive same amount of BTU and repay only BTC (actually they even dont have to repay, they already will have BTU to sell), meaning that possible distribution of coins on exchanges is "slightly" reversed and such distribution could lead to major dump of BTU straight after possibility to make trades with BTU.

We do not know when change might occur but maybe there are statistics/counters showing realtime miners suppor for BTU transition?

So my prediction would be that BTU might start trading at 5-10% of initial BTC price (probably exchanges at first realease BTU at same price as BTC, BTU will straight go down the way ZCash has gone), BTC price its self probably wont be affected negatively (on what basis it should? just some rumors that there is new fork and why coin holders should support it they even couldnt vote for the fork, dont think that btc transition to btu is simmilar to eth to etc). I even believe that BTU holders will try to buy fast BTC meaning that price on BTC might even go higher making a way past a resistance level of 1300 USD.

[megashira1_is_hacked]

When the hard fork happens the amount of dollars($'s) in BTC itself will cut in half. The remaining value initially I believe would be split 4:1 in favor of BTC.. Over a 12 month period I see the market gaining confidence in BTU, with it slowly surpassing BTC in support before eventually exterminating the old BTC and taking its reigns. Over this period price will skyrocket to $5k before the next leg of adoption to $50k as a result of successful scaling.