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Author Topic: R/BTC moderator steps down, announces he is leaving bitcoin for Ethereum  (Read 1345 times)
ebliever
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March 27, 2017, 07:22:28 PM
 #1

https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/61sim7/i_am_stepping_down_as_a_moderator_of_rbtc_and/

This is actually a very good read so I encourage bitcoin users on both sides of the Core/BU divide to digest it. I've leaned Core myself, but have exactly the same thoughts on his scenarios 1 and 2. Not surprisingly given his R/BTC affiliation he's more pessimistic than I about scenario 3 (Segwit wins), but that matters little as long as its hard to imagine Segwit seeing the light of day.

I'd point out, though, that Segwit does alleviate the immediate TX pressure, and even if TX pressure continued at current levels that would not kill bitcoin - only throttle it. But I'm inclined to agree with singularity87 (the author/mod at the link) that even such throttling may be enough to "kill" bitcoin in the sense that Ethereum will surpass Bitcoin in network effect, leading to the "Flippening." (A period of rapid change as people realize bitcoin supremacy is a lost cause and flee to Ethereum in droves.) So the challenge for diehard bitcoin supporters is how to avoid this outcome.

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March 27, 2017, 07:26:14 PM
 #2

I'd point out, though, that Segwit does alleviate the immediate TX pressure,

no it doesnt..
its worth you trying to atleast learn how segwit actually works

heres things to think about
segwit promises: 2mb-4mb block promise when activated.
segwit reality:at activation.. nothing.. people using standard UTXO (native/legacy tx keypair) will have their data stuck in the base block limit of 1mb (no gain for them). only segwit utxo spenders(users who have funds on segwit tx keypair) will have part of the tx data outside the base block.
meaning it requires people to spend their native utxo and move the funds into segwit keys.. and then when they spend the segwit UTXO then they are helping with the ratio inside and outside the base block.*

segwit promises: malleability fix promise when activated.
segwit reality:at activation.. nothing.. people using standard UTXO (native/legacy tx keypair) will have their data stuck in the base block and can still do malleability. only segwit utxo (segwit tx keypair) will move part of the tx data outside the base block. meaning it requires people spend their native utxo and move the funds into segwit keys.. and then when they spend the segwit UTXO then they are helping with the not malleating because they are disarmed.*

segwit promises: quadratic sigop fix promise when activated.
segwit reality:at activation.. nothing.. people using standard UTXO (native/legacy tx keypair) will have their data stuck in the base block and can still do sigop spam. only segwit utxo (segwit tx keypair) will move part of the tx data outside the base block. meaning it requires people spend their native utxo and move the funds into segwit keys.. and then when they spend the segwit UTXO then they are helping with the not sigop spamming because they are disarmed.*

*the issues:
trying to move 46mill native UTXO.. is a laugh to think will be 100% accomplished, especially in any rational time or ability to achieve
thinking 100% of users will voluntarily use segwit keys and stick to segwit.
thinking that malicious spammers/attacker would voluntarily use segwit keys, voluntarily disarming and de-spamming themselves.. is the opposite of the motives of said malicious spammers.

infact segwit opens up new attack vectors for these spammers. which will make it even harder for people to move funds across. and all this having to move funds just to try disarming themselves will be ADDING to the mempool spam

dont expect to get anywhere near 2mb of 'capacity' just like we didnt get 7tx/s in bitcoin 2009-2017 even when maths estimations suggested it was possible

segwit promises: keeps node costs down
segwit reality: 2mb of data is still 2mb of data for a full node no matter if the signatures are in the middle of a tx or end of a tx.. yea you can claim enabling prunned or no witness mode.. but then your no longer the upstream tier of a full node. and just part of the downstream lower tier cesspools of not full data nodes, thus might aswell just be spv/litenodes. they are not counted/treated as "full nodes"

segwit promises: keeps node counts up
segwit reality: enabling prunned or no witness mode.. they are no longer the upstream tier of a full node network. and just part of the downstream lower tier cesspits of not full data nodes, thus might aswell just be spv/litenodes. they are not counted/treated as "full nodes"
moving non segwit nodes off the network. again drops the full node count.


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March 27, 2017, 07:27:28 PM
 #3

do not ignore the signpost warnings.


https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/61rf15/updated_list_of_big_companies_abandoning_bitcoin/

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March 27, 2017, 07:31:05 PM
 #4

But I'm inclined to agree with singularity87 (the author/mod at the link) that even such throttling may be enough to "kill" bitcoin in the sense that Ethereum will surpass Bitcoin in network effect, leading to the "Flippening." (A period of rapid change as people realize bitcoin supremacy is a lost cause and flee to Ethereum in droves.) So the challenge for diehard bitcoin supporters is how to avoid this outcome.
There is no such thing as the "Flippening". This is a made up doomsday scenario by the r/btc shills who are deeply invested in ETH. Bitcoin is supposed to be digital gold, not centralized paypal 2.0.

There is a huge difference between adopting an alternative currency and abandoning Bitcoin. I would like to see references for each of those points, especially Dell (first time I'm hearing about it).

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March 27, 2017, 07:41:55 PM
 #5

BTC is rebounding so we have more and more news to sell btc or switch to eth at ether high price,etherum and bitcoin can live together all that public debate is more and more stupid,but soap opera need to continue

 
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March 27, 2017, 07:42:42 PM
 #6


There is no such thing as the "Flippening". This is a made up doomsday scenario by the r/btc shills who are deeply invested in ETH. Bitcoin is supposed to be digital gold, not centralized paypal 2.0.

You don't have to be a BU supporter to see that bitcoin is in real trouble and ETH is making gains every day. And since when did bitcoin supporters declare bitcoin to be worthless except as "digital gold"? That by itself is an absolutely horrid stance to take. (Insert random altcoin) can serve that role perfectly well. The promise of bitcoin was in its ability to transform finance in all kinds of niches. That's what I've been reading for years in crypto media! So saying it is just supposed to be a store of value unable to handle payments, as I take your comment to mean, is tantamount to a wholesale surrender and retreat from most of the financial battlefield.


And Franky, you are trying way too hard to deny the obvious: Segwit will provide significantly increased transaction capacity soon after it was deployed, if it could ever get the chance.

Luke 12:15-21

Ephesians 2:8-9
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March 27, 2017, 07:47:54 PM
 #7

You don't have to be a BU supporter to see that bitcoin is in real trouble and ETH is making gains every day. And since when did bitcoin supporters declare bitcoin to be worthless except as "digital gold"? That by itself is an absolutely horrid stance to take. (Insert random altcoin) can serve that role perfectly well. The promise of bitcoin was in its ability to transform finance in all kinds of niches. That's what I've been reading for years in crypto media! So saying it is just supposed to be a store of value unable to handle payments, as I take your comment to mean, is tantamount to a wholesale surrender and retreat from most of the financial battlefield.
You will be able to do all of that on secondary layer solutions. Sidechains, Tumblebit, Mimblewimble, LN, et. al.

And Franky, you are trying way too hard to deny the obvious: Segwit will provide significantly increased transaction capacity soon after it was deployed, if it could ever get the chance.
Just ignore his posts. They are full of pseudo-science and false knowledge. He will never admit to being wrong, even if 99.99% scientists said otherwise. Roll Eyes

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ebliever
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March 27, 2017, 07:52:02 PM
 #8

You don't have to be a BU supporter to see that bitcoin is in real trouble and ETH is making gains every day. And since when did bitcoin supporters declare bitcoin to be worthless except as "digital gold"? That by itself is an absolutely horrid stance to take. (Insert random altcoin) can serve that role perfectly well. The promise of bitcoin was in its ability to transform finance in all kinds of niches. That's what I've been reading for years in crypto media! So saying it is just supposed to be a store of value unable to handle payments, as I take your comment to mean, is tantamount to a wholesale surrender and retreat from most of the financial battlefield.
You will be able to do all of that on secondary layer solutions. Sidechains, Tumblebit, Mimblewimble, LN, et. al.

And Franky, you are trying way too hard to deny the obvious: Segwit will provide significantly increased transaction capacity soon after it was deployed, if it could ever get the chance.
Just ignore his posts. They are full of pseudo-science and false knowledge. He will never admit to being wrong, even if 99.99% scientists said otherwise. Roll Eyes

Thanks for the clarification - that makes much much more sense. :-)

I can ignore Franky just fine, but he still needs to be called out for the benefit of newbies he may confuse.

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March 27, 2017, 07:57:52 PM
 #9


Your fake libertarianism shines through once again Jonald.


I'm really pleased that large corporations who get unfair advantages in the marketplace from their politician buddies are no longer accepting BTC, I don't want to give them my Bitcoin anyway.

Meanwhile, smaller independent businesses still accept BTC, particularly in places with a liberal tradition (USA, Great Britain, Netherlands, Czech Republic etc). Even socialist places like Argentina and Venezuela are still into BTC for the right reasons.


Take your fakery elsewhere, you are not and never have been wanted

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March 27, 2017, 08:07:07 PM
 #10


There is a huge difference between adopting an alternative currency and abandoning Bitcoin. I would like to see references for each of those points, especially Dell (first time I'm hearing about it).

https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/61q5u6/does_dellcom_still_accept_bitcoin/

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March 27, 2017, 08:09:28 PM
 #11

Wow. This is getting serious. How should a newbie take all of this dissension? It's obvious that confidence in the Bitcoin Network is fading, but I don't think that the Ethereum Network can support the types of valuations that bitcoin supported, not with "ether" anyway. They're not equivocal platforms. Am I missing something?

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March 27, 2017, 08:22:49 PM
 #12

Am I missing something?

Yes.

The fundamental value that Bitcoin presents doesn't change because a sub-reddit shuts, or some corporations stop accepting BTC.

The network is in better shape than it's ever been, resistant to all sorts of attacks launched against it by some interested party or parties over the years (I wonder who they could have been.... Smiley )


As long as Bitcoin holders do well at evaluating the risks we're presented with in the shape of this latest attack (BU), we shouldn't have a problem in the end.

It's a big if, but I believe we can do it. Weak hands will bail. But those who got it to begin with will use the same instincts to find the way out, as there is a way. BU is a serious threat, no doubt about it, but we can overcome it. On the other side, great things await.

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March 27, 2017, 08:25:33 PM
 #13

Wow. This is getting serious. How should a newbie take all of this dissension? It's obvious that confidence in the Bitcoin Network is fading, but I don't think that the Ethereum Network can support the types of valuations that bitcoin supported, not with "ether" anyway. They're not equivocal platforms. Am I missing something?

Keep in mind that the BTC market cap was lower ~2 years ago than Ethereum is today. Bitcoin is still the leader in terms of network effect and valuation, but things can change _very_ quickly in the cryptocurrency space. I've been wargaming in my mind the same kinds of scenarios as the moderator in the OP, with roughly the same results, for some time. I wish I could say I see a good chance bitcoin will come out of this stronger than ever, but I think it more likely that it is going to get out-competed. If it could afford to take years developing greater capacity solutions like the LN then things might be different, but Raiden for Ethereum and all the other major alts gunning for BTC's throne while BTC is locked in a toxic stalemate does not bode well.

Bottom line, I still hold a significant chunk of BTC and don't see myself exiting it easily, but I shifted most of my crypto funds to ZEC, Dash and ETH some weeks ago (just before and during their rise). Then I consolidated towards ETH a few days ago, though still keeping a chunk of Dash and ZEC for diversification. Things have gotten too volatile to stay concentrated in just one coin at this point.

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March 27, 2017, 09:47:08 PM
 #14

Quote
I noticed this is a big trend. Companies start accepting Bitcoin then stop because the fees are too big and confirmations too unreliable because of Core's policy of a keeping Bitcoin clogged up and unreliable.
Completely fake statement made up by r/btc shills and BTU fanatics. Nowhere does it state that Dell has stopped accepting Bitcoin for this very reason. Complete assesment:
Quote
Dell - Status unknown.
StorJ - Switched to centralized scamcoin ETH.
Circle - Tries to be Paypal 2.0, failed horribly.
Brave - No information about removing Bitcoin.
AlphaBay - Adding an altcoin; nothing special.
the United Nations - Unknown?
Bullionstar - Unknown?

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March 27, 2017, 09:48:49 PM
 #15

Quote
I noticed this is a big trend. Companies start accepting Bitcoin then stop because the fees are too big and confirmations too unreliable because of Core's policy of a keeping Bitcoin clogged up and unreliable.
Completely fake statement made up by r/btc shills and BTU fanatics. Nowhere does it state that Dell has stopped accepting Bitcoin for this very reason. Complete assesment:
Quote
Dell - Status unknown.
StorJ - Switched to centralized scamcoin ETH.
Circle - Tries to be Paypal 2.0, failed horribly.
Brave - No information about removing Bitcoin.
AlphaBay - Adding an altcoin; nothing special.
the United Nations - Unknown?
Bullionstar - Unknown?

So are you saying this person is lying:

Quote
o they should tell users in their FAQ they don't accept it anymore and take down that page about Bitcoin. They actually don't accept it now. I was trying to buy a computer or two, but Bitcoin option is not available.


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March 27, 2017, 09:55:36 PM
 #16

One person stepping down isn't really a big issue (see Mike Hearn). However, I do think that Bitcoin has to tackle this issue head-on in order to set a precedent for future consensus conflicts. If this doesn't become resolved, then Bitcoin's consensus model has failed and another cryptocurrency will take its place.

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March 28, 2017, 02:58:20 AM
 #17

To me, leaving bitcoin for Ethereum is worst than anyone who participated in BU/Segwit debate. How about when the current issues have been ironed out? Will he come back? Ethereum is basically "governed" by centralization, controlled by the few. They can HF anytime.

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March 28, 2017, 03:00:24 AM
 #18

To me, leaving bitcoin for Ethereum is worst than anyone who participated in BU/Segwit debate. How about when the current issues have been ironed out? Will he come back? Ethereum is basically "governed" by centralization, controlled by the few. They can HF anytime.

I agree with you but listen dude.... instead of playing the blame game on this person who left , lets get brutally honest with ourselves and admit we're failing as a community... We need to get our shit together and fast.  Are you with me brother?


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March 28, 2017, 07:35:54 AM
 #19

To me, leaving bitcoin for Ethereum is worst than anyone who participated in BU/Segwit debate. How about when the current issues have been ironed out? Will he come back? Ethereum is basically "governed" by centralization, controlled by the few. They can HF anytime.

Who cares about centralization as long you take a lot of money from a new "job"?  Everything is about a lot of money Smiley
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March 28, 2017, 09:40:21 AM
Last edit: March 28, 2017, 10:53:34 AM by freedomno1
 #20

https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/61sim7/i_am_stepping_down_as_a_moderator_of_rbtc_and/

This is actually a very good read so I encourage bitcoin users on both sides of the Core/BU divide to digest it. I've leaned Core myself, but have exactly the same thoughts on his scenarios 1 and 2. Not surprisingly given his R/BTC affiliation he's more pessimistic than I about scenario 3 (Segwit wins), but that matters little as long as its hard to imagine Segwit seeing the light of day.

I'd point out, though, that Segwit does alleviate the immediate TX pressure, and even if TX pressure continued at current levels that would not kill bitcoin - only throttle it. But I'm inclined to agree with singularity87 (the author/mod at the link) that even such throttling may be enough to "kill" bitcoin in the sense that Ethereum will surpass Bitcoin in network effect, leading to the "Flippening." (A period of rapid change as people realize bitcoin supremacy is a lost cause and flee to Ethereum in droves.) So the challenge for diehard bitcoin supporters is how to avoid this outcome.

I'll break it down to my own point of view

When singularity says "I think bitcoin is past the point of no return" and provides his rationale I disagree with his conclusion but agree that the current iteration of Bitcoin is in trouble.

Not all routes will end in failure the scale is to large for that to occur even a worst case double fork or triple fork or even multiple mini forks will just result in blockchain splits and the usage will still exist on as many N chains as there are forks. Until one takes dominance.

It will divide the value will it kill Bitcoin in its current iteration perhaps, will usage suddenly plummet to 0 on all coins NO the only bet worth taking is the bet that there may not be a singularity but betting on this is the coming new Lingua Franca and we will shift to Ethereum over Bitcoin over all other altcoins is also a fallacy.

We will need to base prices on or move to a co-existing state at some point but a fork will build up Ethers market cap so it is a good hedge bet.

The Past:
Well except for Gox and that accidental Fork on a new client he-he 2013. Bitcoin adoption and news was more fun back then some of my most active time on talk was during this period ^^.

The Present:
He's too pessimistic on the outlook we are the same as in the past which is a bit concerning but now we see scaling moving from being on the horizon to upon us creating the atmosphere of fear and debate.

The failed Consensus meeting and other issues cropping up with legalization and regulation as it grows turns into politics which is annoying.

As a result the development has stalled to an extent and it is true that Blockchain compression and other things have gone to the backburner while debate moved to blocksize and other new updates are stuck until this threshold is passed one way or another.
On the other hand we did see the rise of alt-coins in a big way since 2014 most crap some good ones though so agree with that point and the idea that there is an inertia effect that makes Bitcoin the de facto asset class.
Singularity does bring up an interesting point on the definition of investment capital.
http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-venture-capital/

Money is flowing I don't expect to see the flow stop anytime soon in fact I expect it to grow but with some moving to Blockchain over Bitcoin however given the Inertia effect it does props up Bitcoins price as it is absorbing a fraction of those investments into the ecosystem and it doesn't factor in the fact that people still don't know most alt-coins and begin their trading and interaction with cryptocurrencies through Bitcoin although to his credit the real life meetups in public I know of are only two one is for Ethereum the others are for Bitcoin so as a singularities hedge on Eth is as good as can be seen from the present point of view it's just not worth abandoning Bitcoin at this point in time.

I am bullish on both Bitcoin and Ethereum for the future with some other alt-coins the real gamble would be in buying a decent sized basket of all them and assuming that if 9 fail and 1 grows significantly enough to cover the losses of the others your golden as many other people seem to be doing this seeing how a lot of alt-coins have rallied in this past week as the market % cap of Bitcoin dropped.
(Of course the alt-coins crashed again after the first real panic buy and spread in a while so there will be better opportunities to position that basket he-he)

New money comes with higher risk the same can be said of alt's if 9 can fail and 1 succeeds in the long run it's fine if that one does go Huge it can cover all the lemons you buy.

The Future:
It is not set in stone but it is true a strong community is a good sign for growth.

Scenario 1:
It's a buying opportunity for those with the balls to do it fear and panic bring opportunity and real big returns once the fires stop burning.

A short of BTC or a long if you want to play the alts route using Bitcoin as the base index can still make you money even if it gets that messy the exchanges won't care since the value of the coins to fiat will drop either way if it forks and that impacts all across the board giving a rise to a new stable coin to base prices off of.

Maybe there will be a temporary halt on trading if people turn to cash or a bank run occurs or if they don't have enough split coins to cover the runs of the weaker coin at the time of fork then the real 0's occur.

But unless you believe it will burn to 0 and the coins you hold are worthless your fine I've seen those days I know the fires are pretty but Bitcoin forked is still a stubborn mule or honeybadger and it doesn't give a damn I'll bet my cart in this fire and aim to be the King over the Thief.

Bitcoin will survive but Ethereum does have its opportunity to propel and perhaps act as a second demmurage coin we base our basket upon.
Like the World Banks the basket of currencies and their weighting when they give loans out will change from being one to two or more coins held in a basket.  

So yes he is onto something here you can make good $$$ in chaos but he is off on the market cap since there is no base price we will agree upon for a while post fork market caps will be a bit wonky until a new Equilibrium is found.

On that point ETH can be anywhere on the new scale until the base price all coins are priced at is agreed upon and if BTC 1 and 2 are down the cap is down unless ETH magically gains market share and cap and its own base price not at all connected and unique to Bitcoin's price if there is two BTC it may pass the cap of one forked version resulting in press but not the other confusing people and in the end all coins will flow in a messy muddled state until a new pecking order and pricing mechanism is agreed upon.

Scenario 2:

Possible scenario unless a forced migration occurs Bitcoin it is in effect capped and other coins may pass it in time.

Scenario 3:

Timeframe may be off could also be spot on
Quicker solutions may also appear as new options are explored that were not explored before Segwit aka the present because it was not worth the research until after the fact.
The future is uncertain so the validity may be reasonable now but not after Segwit is implemented.

The second part of scenario 3 is occurring but merchant adoption is lagging behind until multiple coins are accepted at the same time alongside Bitcoin in all use cases real world store applications may falter behind the network effect coin aka Bitcoin.

Kind of like how some merchants may take Visa over Mastercard but not both and only a few use Discover or AMEX relative to the other two.
(That will depend on what the retail Point of Sale Terminal providers decide the basket of accepted coins are for most users)
http://www.coindesk.com/information/bitcoin-retail-pos-systems/

What is Most Likely to Happen:

Nodes can also force an action on the miners in some unique cases but pools will likely decide this issue.
BU may be treated like the other options we have looked at that have lost popularity over time but at fork it will have a faction that could grow into majority depending on how cohesive it remains it could also fork even further.
Ethereum has forked a path like that and even thought about forking even more in Classic so that is the way Core and BU could go.

SO THIS IS BU’S FAULT FOR FORCING A HARD FORK?
Blame can be put on both sides nough said.

ISN’T THIS ALL JUST FUD
Na he's got valid points but in the end the whole Ethereum will be the new base coin argument is off as I think not we have a ways to go to the supercoin if it is a post-bitcoin world if there is another one in the short run. We could also end up with the multi-national system of currency baskets in crypto.

The Myspace Vs Facebook analogy could well be the Line vs Skype vs Whatsapp vs Yandex vs other mobile apps argument.

Either way it will be profitable to diversify if they all get traction and keep up to date.
That is decentralisation.


Related Food for Thought:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-19/bitcoins-fork-road
https://magnr.com/blog/bitcoin/bitcoin-fork/
https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-fork-segwit-vs-bitcoin-unlimited-explained-simply/
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