https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/61sim7/i_am_stepping_down_as_a_moderator_of_rbtc_and/This is actually a very good read so I encourage bitcoin users on both sides of the Core/BU divide to digest it. I've leaned Core myself, but have exactly the same thoughts on his scenarios 1 and 2. Not surprisingly given his R/BTC affiliation he's more pessimistic than I about scenario 3 (Segwit wins), but that matters little as long as its hard to imagine Segwit seeing the light of day.
I'd point out, though, that Segwit does alleviate the immediate TX pressure, and even if TX pressure continued at current levels that would not kill bitcoin - only throttle it. But I'm inclined to agree with singularity87 (the author/mod at the link) that even such throttling may be enough to "kill" bitcoin in the sense that Ethereum will surpass Bitcoin in network effect, leading to the "Flippening." (A period of rapid change as people realize bitcoin supremacy is a lost cause and flee to Ethereum in droves.) So the challenge for diehard bitcoin supporters is how to avoid this outcome.
I'll break it down to my own point of view
When singularity says "I think bitcoin is past the point of no return" and provides his rationale I disagree with his conclusion but agree that the current iteration of Bitcoin is in trouble.
Not all routes will end in failure the scale is to large for that to occur even a worst case double fork or triple fork or even multiple mini forks will just result in blockchain splits and the usage will still exist on as many N chains as there are forks. Until one takes dominance.
It will divide the value will it kill Bitcoin in its current iteration perhaps, will usage suddenly plummet to 0 on all coins NO the only bet worth taking is the bet that there may not be a singularity but betting on this is the coming new Lingua Franca and we will shift to Ethereum over Bitcoin over all other altcoins is also a fallacy.
We will need to base prices on or move to a co-existing state at some point but a fork will build up Ethers market cap so it is a good hedge bet.
The Past:
Well except for Gox and that accidental Fork on a new client he-he 2013. Bitcoin adoption and news was more fun back then some of my most active time on talk was during this period ^^.
The Present:
He's too pessimistic on the outlook we are the same as in the past which is a bit concerning but now we see scaling moving from being on the horizon to upon us creating the atmosphere of fear and debate.
The failed Consensus meeting and other issues cropping up with legalization and regulation as it grows turns into politics which is annoying.
As a result the development has stalled to an extent and it is true that Blockchain compression and other things have gone to the backburner while debate moved to blocksize and other new updates are stuck until this threshold is passed one way or another.
On the other hand we did see the rise of alt-coins in a big way since 2014 most crap some good ones though so agree with that point and the idea that there is an inertia effect that makes Bitcoin the de facto asset class.
Singularity does bring up an interesting point on the definition of investment capital.
http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-venture-capital/Money is flowing I don't expect to see the flow stop anytime soon in fact I expect it to grow but with some moving to Blockchain over Bitcoin however given the Inertia effect it does props up Bitcoins price as it is absorbing a fraction of those investments into the ecosystem and it doesn't factor in the fact that people still don't know most alt-coins and begin their trading and interaction with cryptocurrencies through Bitcoin although to his credit the real life meetups in public I know of are only two one is for Ethereum the others are for Bitcoin so as a singularities hedge on Eth is as good as can be seen from the present point of view it's just not worth abandoning Bitcoin at this point in time.
I am bullish on both Bitcoin and Ethereum for the future with some other alt-coins the real gamble would be in buying a decent sized basket of all them and assuming that if 9 fail and 1 grows significantly enough to cover the losses of the others your golden as many other people seem to be doing this seeing how a lot of alt-coins have rallied in this past week as the market % cap of Bitcoin dropped.
(Of course the alt-coins crashed again after the first real panic buy and spread in a while so there will be better opportunities to position that basket he-he)
New money comes with higher risk the same can be said of alt's if 9 can fail and 1 succeeds in the long run it's fine if that one does go Huge it can cover all the lemons you buy.
The Future:
It is not set in stone but it is true a strong community is a good sign for growth.
Scenario 1:
It's a buying opportunity for those with the balls to do it fear and panic bring opportunity and real big returns once the fires stop burning.
A short of BTC or a long if you want to play the alts route using Bitcoin as the base index can still make you money even if it gets that messy the exchanges won't care since the value of the coins to fiat will drop either way if it forks and that impacts all across the board giving a rise to a new stable coin to base prices off of.
Maybe there will be a temporary halt on trading if people turn to cash or a bank run occurs or if they don't have enough split coins to cover the runs of the weaker coin at the time of fork then the real 0's occur.
But unless you believe it will burn to 0 and the coins you hold are worthless your fine I've seen those days I know the fires are pretty but Bitcoin forked is still a stubborn mule or honeybadger and it doesn't give a damn I'll bet my cart in this fire and aim to be the King over the Thief.
Bitcoin will survive but Ethereum does have its opportunity to propel and perhaps act as a second demmurage coin we base our basket upon.
Like the World Banks the basket of currencies and their weighting when they give loans out will change from being one to two or more coins held in a basket.
So yes he is onto something here you can make good $$$ in chaos but he is off on the market cap since there is no base price we will agree upon for a while post fork market caps will be a bit wonky until a new Equilibrium is found.
On that point ETH can be anywhere on the new scale until the base price all coins are priced at is agreed upon and if BTC 1 and 2 are down the cap is down unless ETH magically gains market share and cap and its own base price not at all connected and unique to Bitcoin's price if there is two BTC it may pass the cap of one forked version resulting in press but not the other confusing people and in the end all coins will flow in a messy muddled state until a new pecking order and pricing mechanism is agreed upon.
Scenario 2:
Possible scenario unless a forced migration occurs Bitcoin it is in effect capped and other coins may pass it in time.
Scenario 3:
Timeframe may be off could also be spot on
Quicker solutions may also appear as new options are explored that were not explored before Segwit aka the present because it was not worth the research until after the fact.
The future is uncertain so the validity may be reasonable now but not after Segwit is implemented.
The second part of scenario 3 is occurring but merchant adoption is lagging behind until multiple coins are accepted at the same time alongside Bitcoin in all use cases real world store applications may falter behind the network effect coin aka Bitcoin.
Kind of like how some merchants may take Visa over Mastercard but not both and only a few use Discover or AMEX relative to the other two.
(That will depend on what the retail Point of Sale Terminal providers decide the basket of accepted coins are for most users)
http://www.coindesk.com/information/bitcoin-retail-pos-systems/What is Most Likely to Happen:
Nodes can also force an action on the miners in some unique cases but pools will likely decide this issue.
BU may be treated like the other options we have looked at that have lost popularity over time but at fork it will have a faction that could grow into majority depending on how cohesive it remains it could also fork even further.
Ethereum has forked a path like that and even thought about forking even more in Classic so that is the way Core and BU could go.
SO THIS IS BU’S FAULT FOR FORCING A HARD FORK?
Blame can be put on both sides nough said.
ISN’T THIS ALL JUST FUD
Na he's got valid points but in the end the whole Ethereum will be the new base coin argument is off as I think not we have a ways to go to the supercoin if it is a post-bitcoin world if there is another one in the short run. We could also end up with the multi-national system of currency baskets in crypto.
The Myspace Vs Facebook analogy could well be the Line vs Skype vs Whatsapp vs Yandex vs other mobile apps argument.
Either way it will be profitable to diversify if they all get traction and keep up to date.
That is decentralisation.
Related Food for Thought:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-19/bitcoins-fork-roadhttps://magnr.com/blog/bitcoin/bitcoin-fork/https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-fork-segwit-vs-bitcoin-unlimited-explained-simply/
