TA is pseudoscience

[arepo]

There are no "patterns" in the market, every single time is a different situation that can't be predicted using past values.

this has already been shown to be false, in this very thread. i wont even bother commenting on your other 'points' because they're rehashes of this assumption. you can't prove P "because P".

and this assumption is false. Scroll up until you see the "Hurst coefficient". read up on stochastic functions and autocorrelations.

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[Manticore]

Bitcoin is genius and would be the cheapest, fastest way to transmit value if it wasn't so volatile. The high currency exchange risk means that only investors can currently benefit from Bitcoin. If you are truly a Bitcoin aficionado, you should not want it shoot up to $1000 anytime soon.

Most major economists overwhelmingly agree.

http://www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel/poll-results?SurveyID=SV_8qRwhHaLc7b5Sp7

I would like to prove them wrong.....but until/if we can make it through the press release-hoarding-speculation bubble, there isn't much hope. Bitcoin is an 'investment' based on the belief of increasing transactions in the future so investors buy and hold. This kills its usefulness in transactions.

Because of volatility, BitPay is required by 99.9% of merchants at a 1% fee. The spread to purchase is usually 0.5% - 1% (2-5% or more during periods of volatility) and has to be factored into the BitPay purchase cost. Foreign exchange risk (currency fluctuation) assumed the by purchaser is extraordinarily high (drop from $166 to $153 in minutes is equivalent to an almost 8% fee + spread & BitPay fee).

Without the extreme volatility, some businesses might be more inclined to assume foreign exchange risk without Bitpay. The spread would stay low. And the foreign exchange risk for purchasers would be much lower. It would become the cheapest, fastest money solution.

[Piper67]

There are no "patterns" in the market, every single time is a different situation that can't be predicted using past values.

this has already been shown to be false, in this very thread. i wont even bother commenting on your other 'points' because they're rehashes of this assumption. you can't prove P "because P".

and this assumption is false. Scroll up until you see the "Hurst coefficient". read up on stochastic functions and autocorrelations.

And when you're done with those, uncouple the Heisenberg Compensators!

And when you're done there, don't forget to stimulate the phagocytes!!!

[Wuji]

TA is pseudo science for sure.

Now if you want to make money here is a method that works.

1.) When everyone says things will never stop going up start selling.

2.) When there have been massive panic sells, things level off, and everyone is a bear, BUY BUY BUY.

TA actually drives people to do the opposite and thus reinforces this tried and true method of profit.

(Make sure you understand the fundamentals and how to spot fraud or this method will not work)

[Brushan]

You sir, amaze me! To actually take the time to register and hang around on a Bitcoin forum just to bash Bitcoin all day long is really impressive. I mean, i'm all stressed out, having so much to do in my life. Can you please give me some advise on how you find so much free time to spend?

I love Bitcoin, which is why I can't stand the hype that makes it volatile and completely useless as a currency. I am involved with Bitcoin on various levels and have an interest in being realistic as opposed to pumping, which is what most people here do, because I do not see a future in such a volatile 'investment'.

Bitcoin is genius and would be the cheapest, fastest way to transmit value if it wasn't so volatile. The high currency exchange risk means that only investors can currently benefit from Bitcoin. If you are truly a Bitcoin aficionado, you should not want it shoot up to $1000 anytime soon.

I actually fully agree with you. It's just that to me it looks like you take every opportunity to bash Bitcoin and i have never seen you speak about it positively. I don't like the over-hyping either but still Bitcoin has many ground breaking properties which deserve to be recognized. Thanks for the nice reply.

[giarc]

There is some evidence that moving average analysis and the simpler technical indicators can lead to excess returns (in very low fee situations, probably lower than the bitcoin market), there is also alot of evidence that other forms of technical analysis are about as effective in terms of predictive ability as coin flipping.

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1566014100000170

 

[freedomno1]

Well we can consider it  from another approach
Most of the time a stock isn't breaking new ground on the upside or the downside of a market
52 week low and 52 week highs
Rather its within a range
To that extent TA is useful in determining some extent of the Lower range and Upper Range of that market at any given point
If we add seasonal trends to those calculations we can get patterns and start looking into fundamental analysis
And further if we consider High Frequency Trading then TA becomes even more interesting as algorithms do make money off of TA systems
Quite a number of mathematicians get paid good money to write stock market programs for business based on it so not a true pseudo-science from that regard either

[prof7bit]

and this assumption is false. Scroll up until you see the "Hurst coefficient". read up on stochastic functions and autocorrelations.

And when you're done with those, uncouple the Heisenberg Compensators!

If the topic of the discussion is too complicated for you then you just spam it with random nonsense comments to tell everybody that you can't follow it anymore? Why don't you just go and read some books instead?

[Pteppic]

I love Bitcoin, which is why I can't stand the hype that makes it volatile and completely useless as a currency.
...
If you are truly a Bitcoin aficionado, you should not want it shoot up to $1000 anytime soon.

If you were truly a Bitcoin aficionado, you would not be trying to decide what people should and shouldn't be doing with it. If Bitcoin can't survive people using it absolutely however they want to, then it never stood a chance in the first place.

[Piper67]

and this assumption is false. Scroll up until you see the "Hurst coefficient". read up on stochastic functions and autocorrelations.

And when you're done with those, uncouple the Heisenberg Compensators!

If the topic of the discussion is too complicated for you then you just spam it with random nonsense comments to tell everybody that you can't follow it anymore? Why don't you just go and read some books instead?

Tell you what, I'll "educate" myself on the Hurst coefficient and stochastic functions if you promise to educate yourself on the philosophy of science. Karl Popper is a good starting point... look up "unfalsifiability".

Or... learn about subtelty and irony.

[Vandroiy]

TA has no clear definition.

Chart analysis should have marginal profits in an efficient market. Bitcoin is not currently an efficient market. Make of it what you will.

I'm serious, it's just that. A lot of the TA threads are Voodoo. Then again, look at Goomboo's thing and say that there's nothing to it. The conditions under which it works are hard to grasp, but at the times where it works, it works astonishingly well.

I think this is how it goes. Is people manage to temporarily break a market, there probably exists a trading method on chart patterns that makes money. Just because the people who'd usually use it can't. (For example because everyone is buying and there are no shorts --> trollolol 265 peak)

[anu]

I'm serious, it's just that. A lot of the TA threads are Voodoo.

But Voodoo works! Just look at present day politics.

[arepo]

TA has no clear definition.

this is a problem with the premise of this thread, not the specific methods of analysis themselves. "TA" simply refers to a large number of varied techniques.

[mobodick]

I find the lack of TA-proponents that said "My analysis tells me the price will drop soon! Just you wait!" a bit strange.
Most of this thread was written right right before a major sell off that took the price from $160 to $91 and nobody noticed.
I would have expected that if TA had any predictive properties it would have been easy to predict the recent dropping.

[freedomno1]

Actually I wrote that in one of my threads when the BTC crashed Parabolic Bubble then the rebounce then collapse then real rebuilding 

[TraderTimm]

I find the lack of TA-proponents that said "My analysis tells me the price will drop soon! Just you wait!" a bit strange.
Most of this thread was written right right before a major sell off that took the price from $160 to $91 and nobody noticed.
I would have expected that if TA had any predictive properties it would have been easy to predict the recent dropping.

That's mostly a function of sharing information in a few moderated IRC channels. Why bother with the troll-circus of the forums or reddit?

Nobody listened when a few people shouted warnings on April 9th on Reddit - so why would they pay attention here?

[waveaddict]

I find the lack of TA-proponents that said "My analysis tells me the price will drop soon! Just you wait!" a bit strange.
Most of this thread was written right right before a major sell off that took the price from $160 to $91 and nobody noticed.
I would have expected that if TA had any predictive properties it would have been easy to predict the recent dropping.

It did. From an Elliott Wave standpoint, three waves up from $50 to $160 meant the rise was corrective and not motive. From a volume/price standpoint, the decreasing volume meant the rise was corrective. From a support/resistance standpoint, the rally ascended into a massive resistance confluence area in the mid-$100s warning of a top. And no, this analysis was predictive and not reactive.

Furthermore, from a TA standpoint, the path leading up to the $266 was somewhat predictable, along with the post-bubble crash bottom, if you understood the technical factors inflating the bubble along with major support areas after it popped.

The reason you don't see more "I told you so" posts is because it's becoming tiresome and mostly useless to argue with those who are out to demonize technical analysis (TA).

[1m1nd]

Currently we are experiencing a vigorous mexican wave retrenchment, with a moderate likelihood of bearish panhandles. However I would hesitate to rule out the possibility of a short bullish halibut, given current ocelots.

[arepo]

The reason you don't see more "I told you so" posts is because it's becoming tiresome and mostly useless to argue with those who are out to demonize technical analysis (TA).

this. i'm taking a break from this place soon because of this reason. wish newbies would search old posts before rehashing redundant arguments.