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[ruski]

Since everybody is so fond of this picture on downturns.

[NikolaTesla]

We're at return to "normal"

[Hawker]

Nah.  We are still at the "Innovators/techies try it stage."  The real growth is a long way off.

http://readwrite.com/2007/08/06/rethinking_crossing_the_chasm

[naphto]

"bull trap"

[ruski]

We're at return to "normal"

If we blow past $250 this week, you'll be wrong.

[lebing]

"bull trap"

lol. Seriously, when will people stop saying that.

[Miz4r]

We're at return to "normal"

Wow I haven't heard that one before... *yawn*

[NikolaTesla]

The first sell of was in 2011 and teh big  one was two weeks ago so obviously we're at return to normal.
This shit is going to fall hard within the next few days. Bitcoin hangs from the thread that is mt. gox. If anything at all bad happens to them, the whole market is fucked.

[ruski]

The first sell of was in 2011 and teh big  one was two weeks ago so obviously we're at return to normal.
This shit is going to fall hard within the next few days. Bitcoin hangs from the thread that is mt. gox. If anything at all bad happens to them, the whole market is fucked.

Haha, so we're headed down to ...breaks out the calculator $3? Being optimistic?

[Rampion]

Since everybody is so fond of this picture on downturns.

Well, we could be there or in the bull trap. To support that statement:

• we already had a first sell off at around $27 (or/and during the first 2011 bubble)
• we already had A LOT of media attention. Almost everybody know about BTC at this point.
• we already had A LOT of enthusiasm, greed, delusion and "new paradigm" screamed all over
• the bulls are now saying "return to normal, heading to the ATH"

And then:

• "smart money" come in at $5ish or earlier.
• "awareness" phase has passed (everybody knows about BTC now, we made headlines in ALL the main world newspapers - didn't you notice?)
• we really had a "mania phase", don't you think so?

[/list]

[Mouser]

The angle of increase today at 155 suggests this is another small bubble. Each little pop leaves the price a little higher than it was a couple of days earlier.
When one of these small bubbles occurs at say 217 the pop could easily plunge the price a longer way down to 98. From there resumed gradual increase with the process repeating at 250, 300 350, 450, 650 etc.

Just speculation.

[NikolaTesla]

The first sell of was in 2011 and teh big  one was two weeks ago so obviously we're at return to normal.
This shit is going to fall hard within the next few days. Bitcoin hangs from the thread that is mt. gox. If anything at all bad happens to them, the whole market is fucked.

Haha, so we're headed down to ...breaks out the calculator $3? Being optimistic?

The true valuation based on fundamentals should be around $55.

[MykelJH]

The first sell of was in 2011 and teh big  one was two weeks ago so obviously we're at return to normal.
This shit is going to fall hard within the next few days. Bitcoin hangs from the thread that is mt. gox. If anything at all bad happens to them, the whole market is fucked.

Haha, so we're headed down to ...breaks out the calculator $3? Being optimistic?

The true valuation based on fundamentals should be around $55.

now is this strictly based on number of bitcoin VS. difficulty to get?

[Miz4r]

If anything bad happens to Mt Gox the price will drop I agree, but just DDoS isn't going to work anymore we're past that stage now. So what's going to pop it now? I think the odds are definitely in favor of the price going up or consolidating around $200. Once new more professional exchanges come into business (and this will be pretty soon) then the real bull market starts taking off.

[NikolaTesla]

The first sell of was in 2011 and teh big  one was two weeks ago so obviously we're at return to normal.
This shit is going to fall hard within the next few days. Bitcoin hangs from the thread that is mt. gox. If anything at all bad happens to them, the whole market is fucked.

Haha, so we're headed down to ...breaks out the calculator $3? Being optimistic?

The true valuation based on fundamentals should be around $55.

now is this strictly based on number of bitcoin VS. difficulty to get?

Based on cost to mine. If I can mine for $50 a coin, why should I buy for $150 coin? The convenience of buying isn't worth increasing the price by 200%.

[smoothie]

The first sell of was in 2011 and teh big  one was two weeks ago so obviously we're at return to normal.
This shit is going to fall hard within the next few days. Bitcoin hangs from the thread that is mt. gox. If anything at all bad happens to them, the whole market is fucked.

SO when you are bullish you ignore this above statement you made?

Now since you sold at $135 you are bearish so you need to talk the price down to buy back in.

LOL

So many noobs around here.

[NikolaTesla]

The first sell of was in 2011 and teh big  one was two weeks ago so obviously we're at return to normal.
This shit is going to fall hard within the next few days. Bitcoin hangs from the thread that is mt. gox. If anything at all bad happens to them, the whole market is fucked.

SO when you are bullish you ignore this above statement you made?

Now since you sold at $135 you are bearish so you need to talk the price down to buy back in.

LOL

So many noobs around here.

When I am bullish it's because I know other people are bullish. It has nothing to do with the real valuation, just mass psychology.

[Uglux]

The first sell of was in 2011 and teh big  one was two weeks ago so obviously we're at return to normal.
This shit is going to fall hard within the next few days. Bitcoin hangs from the thread that is mt. gox. If anything at all bad happens to them, the whole market is fucked.

Haha, so we're headed down to ...breaks out the calculator $3? Being optimistic?

The true valuation based on fundamentals should be around $55.

now is this strictly based on number of bitcoin VS. difficulty to get?

Based on cost to mine. If I can mine for $50 a coin, why should I buy for $150 coin? The convenience of buying isn't worth increasing the price by 200%.

Demand, not convenience, dood.

[ruski]

• we already had a first sell off at around $27
• we already had A LOT of media attention. Almost everybody know about BTC at this point.
• we already had A LOT of enthusiasm, greed, delusion and "new paradigm" screamed all over
• the bulls are now saying "return to normal, heading to the ATH"

We haven't seen the full effects of such widespread media attention yet, I don't believe. Buying into BTC isn't as simple as calling your broker for first timers. We've always got enthusiasm and greed.

The key to this for me was that I sold out at $60, waiting for the second dip to continue much lower to buy. It never came and I bought back in at $120 ouch; it was a single-dip selloff in the scheme of things. The price now is moving almost as fast as it was on the runup to $260; all that new money is starting to take its position and everyone's afraid of being left out.

Of course it's a short term bubble. It may or may not lead to an actual new paradigm, with the market so much in its infancy; some of that money must plan to stay; either way I'm (again) not bothering to swing trade for fear of being left behind. Buy and Hold up in this bitch.

[smoothie]

The first sell of was in 2011 and teh big  one was two weeks ago so obviously we're at return to normal.
This shit is going to fall hard within the next few days. Bitcoin hangs from the thread that is mt. gox. If anything at all bad happens to them, the whole market is fucked.

SO when you are bullish you ignore this above statement you made?

Now since you sold at $135 you are bearish so you need to talk the price down to buy back in.

LOL

So many noobs around here.

When I am bullish it's because I know other people are bullish. It has nothing to do with the real valuation, just mass psychology.

Um what about your statement about gox? lol

DO you tout this when you are bullish?

I love how people on here flip flop each few days lol