YOU ARE HERE

[ruski]

When I am bullish it's because I know other people are bullish. It has nothing to do with the real valuation, just mass psychology.

I like you. That's how I played the 2008-2009 crash.

That said your position of having sold and waiting for a dip is showing rather clearly.

[Rampion]

• we already had a first sell off at around $27
• we already had A LOT of media attention. Almost everybody know about BTC at this point.
• we already had A LOT of enthusiasm, greed, delusion and "new paradigm" screamed all over
• the bulls are now saying "return to normal, heading to the ATH"

We haven't seen the full effects of such widespread media attention yet, I don't believe. Buying into BTC isn't as simple as calling your broker for first timers. We've always got enthusiasm and greed.

The key to this for me was that I sold out at $60, waiting for the second dip to continue much lower to buy. It never came and I bought back in at $120 ouch; it was a single-dip selloff in the scheme of things. The price now is moving almost as fast as it was on the runup to $260; all that new money is starting to take its position and everyone's afraid of being left out.

Of course it's a short term bubble. It may or may not lead to an actual new paradigm, with the market so much in its infancy; some of that money must plan to stay; either way I'm (again) not bothering to swing trade for fear of being left behind. Buy and Hold up in this bitch.

In bold something that is very true. Now let's see how the bubble burst has scared new investors, or convinced them that is a good point to "hop onto the train before it leaves the station"

Anyway, I'm sure this is going to be a bumpy ride.

[batcoin]

• we already had a first sell off at around $27
• we already had A LOT of media attention. Almost everybody know about BTC at this point.
• we already had A LOT of enthusiasm, greed, delusion and "new paradigm" screamed all over
• the bulls are now saying "return to normal, heading to the ATH"

We haven't seen the full effects of such widespread media attention yet, I don't believe. Buying into BTC isn't as simple as calling your broker for first timers. We've always got enthusiasm and greed.

The key to this for me was that I sold out at $60, waiting for the second dip to continue much lower to buy. It never came and I bought back in at $120 ouch; it was a single-dip selloff in the scheme of things. The price now is moving almost as fast as it was on the runup to $260; all that new money is starting to take its position and everyone's afraid of being left out.

Of course it's a short term bubble. It may or may not lead to an actual new paradigm, with the market so much in its infancy; some of that money must plan to stay; either way I'm (again) not bothering to swing trade for fear of being left behind. Buy and Hold up in this bitch.

In bold something that is very true. Now let's see how the bubble burst has scared new investors, or convinced them that is a good point to "hop onto the train before it leaves the station"

Anyway, I'm sure this is going to be a bumpy ride.

Yes, very bumpy. So keep your eyes on the road!

[ruski]

Now let's see how the bubble burst has scared new investors, or convinced them that is a good point to "hop onto the train before it leaves the station"

I was talking with my manager today about Bitcoin. This is a man that trades commodity futures at 75-100x leverage. And he thinks I'm insane.

Only the most extremely high risk pools will be investing here yet, IMO.

[blackreplica]

The first sell of was in 2011 and teh big  one was two weeks ago so obviously we're at return to normal.
This shit is going to fall hard within the next few days. Bitcoin hangs from the thread that is mt. gox. If anything at all bad happens to them, the whole market is fucked.

SO when you are bullish you ignore this above statement you made?

Now since you sold at $135 you are bearish so you need to talk the price down to buy back in.

LOL

So many noobs around here.

When I am bullish it's because I know other people are bullish. It has nothing to do with the real valuation, just mass psychology.

Not too long ago, I saw how sure yourself you were about your predictions. Now that you're wrong, you're singing a totally different tune, it's unbecoming. If you really want to be a good trader, set your emotions aside and prepare for every contingency including the ones you don't want to happen. If you're betting on a $55 price anytime in the near future and nothing else...I'd suggest you find something else to do.

[Rampion]

Now let's see how the bubble burst has scared new investors, or convinced them that is a good point to "hop onto the train before it leaves the station"

I was talking with my manager today about Bitcoin. This is a man that trades commodity futures at 75-100x leverage. And he thinks I'm insane.

Only the most extremely high risk pools will be investing here yet, IMO.

I agree. We need serious infrastucture for serious money to jump into BTC

Just a very few people has the balls to pump millions of $ to a Japanese company with a Polish bank account to buy a virtual currency that is traded in a very illiquid market. And I would bet that no corporation/hedge fund, etc. has the balls to do that ATM.

[Ares]

The first sell of was in 2011 and teh big  one was two weeks ago so obviously we're at return to normal.
This shit is going to fall hard within the next few days. Bitcoin hangs from the thread that is mt. gox. If anything at all bad happens to them, the whole market is fucked.

SO when you are bullish you ignore this above statement you made?

Now since you sold at $135 you are bearish so you need to talk the price down to buy back in.

LOL

So many noobs around here.

When I am bullish it's because I know other people are bullish. It has nothing to do with the real valuation, just mass psychology.

They aren't?

[herzmeister]

Bear Trap or Bull Trap, according to the graph we will eventually tank and hit ~30 USD again either way. 

[Miz4r]

Bear Trap or Bull Trap, according to the graph we will eventually tank and hit ~30 USD again either way. 

Yes the holy graph that is our bitcoin bible and can only be used and interpreted in 100 billion ways to suit everyone's opinion. 

[arepo]

"bull trap"

lol. Seriously, when will people stop saying that.

when people stop saying this:

We're at return to "normal"

If we blow past $250 this week, you'll be wrong.

we're going to fly right past 'normal' and overcorrect back into misery again. we've probably already departed from sustainable prices, at this rate.

[ManBearPig]

I believe we're at the point denoted as, "Fuck the chart, this isn't a stock"

[XXthetimeisnowXX]

still in the middle of "stealth phase" preparing for "take off" somewhere around 1800$

or on much shorter time frame



image credit Andi2k

bahahahahaha NICE + ONE!!!

[oda.krell]

we're going to fly right past 'normal' and overcorrect back into misery again. we've probably already departed from sustainable prices, at this rate.

+1.

While I think the development of the past week is starting to prove the permabears ("We're going back to 20!!!") wrong, I'm now afraid we're *overshooting* the target again.

Moderation, people. Moderation.

[just1nmc]

we're going to fly right past 'normal' and overcorrect back into misery again. we've probably already departed from sustainable prices, at this rate.

+1.

While I think the development of the past week is starting to prove the permabears ("We're going back to 20!!!") wrong, I'm now afraid we're *overshooting* the target again.

Moderation, people. Moderation.

I agree for right now, but I could see the fundamentals behind the price catching up over the next couple months if it doesn't overshoot too far.

The crash has not seemed to deter new merchants from accepting; if anything the rate has increased this week. There are also several new exchanges being worked on, and the ATMs are not far off.

[Mouser]

Put a start point at about $2 two years ago. Put a second point on today's date at about $139.

Draw a simple line beginning at two years ago, including today's point, and extending several years into the future. Though only linear and an approximation, that rough line indicates the gradual incremental growth of BTC wrt USD now and in the near future. Up to 266 or down to 50.25 and everything in between is the result of day traders needing rises and falls to inspire trades where they can earn money.

The demand for BTC is still 50 times the supply. IMO that is one of the fundamental reasons BTC is appreciating along with a gradual increase of companies accepting BTC as payment.

In several years one BTC will be worth over 2,000 USD  using gradual incremental increase. That doesn't deny the possibility of spikes to 4,000 USD per coin in bubble(s).

[Manticore]

I was talking with my manager today about Bitcoin. This is a man that trades commodity futures at 75-100x leverage. And he thinks I'm insane.
Only the most extremely high risk pools will be investing here yet, IMO.

Yes.

[Manticore]

we're going to fly right past 'normal' and overcorrect back into misery again. we've probably already departed from sustainable prices, at this rate.

Exactly.

Press releases, hoarding, and, Mt Gox (who IMO does everything they can to 'cool down' any natural sell-off then blames it on dark forces because Bitcoin apparently never goes down unless there is a nefarious scheme), will produce bubble after bubble until people finally lose interest.

There is no normal. If any of you really love Bitcoin, you don't want it to go up like this day after day......

[naphto]

If any of you really love Bitcoin, you don't want it to go up like this day after day......

Nobody cares about bitcoins. People just want to make some profits (in usd).

[ruski]

If any of you really love Bitcoin, you don't want it to go up like this day after day......

Nobody cares about bitcoins. People just want to make some profits (in usd).

I like mine in AUD!

[notme]

The first sell of was in 2011 and teh big  one was two weeks ago so obviously we're at return to normal.
This shit is going to fall hard within the next few days. Bitcoin hangs from the thread that is mt. gox. If anything at all bad happens to them, the whole market is fucked.

All the local people contacting me to buy bitcoins seem to think differently.  And this is rural West Virginia, where 98% of people are still stuck 30 years in the past.  MtGox isn't that important.