WHY BITCOIN IS JUST A BUBBLE, HUGE FUNDAMENTAL FLAW

[nkspace]

PLEASE READ POST BY MOBO DICK



According to http://blockchain.info/charts/blocks-size we're aproaching 6 gigabytes for the blockchain.
According to http://torrentfreak.com/bittorrent-and-netflix-dominate-americas-internet-traffic-111027/ Netflix is 34% of total...

I can't find numbers on exact transfer rate of the internet. But lets say ~1 exabyte per day (someone got a source to the real data?) so we're looking at netflix transfering 333,000 terabytes per day. This means that even if you had 55,500,000 bitcoiners downloading the entire blockchain every single day... you'd still be consuming less than netflix does on a daily basis.

For real numbers, number of tx * number of nodes * time = transfer rate of bitcoin network  ... feel free to include an estimation of non-current blocks being transfered to out of sync clients.


The difficult seems to be that when bitcoin grows the potential for transactions also grows. The more people there are in the bitcoin economy the more there is to transact in the bitcoin economy.
It's related to the problems you get with interprocess communication in networked processing.
I can see that the number of transactions will rise at some exponential number compared to a linera rise in number of nodes.
So the ammounts of transactions wil grow faster than the ammounts of nodes.
If bitcoin becomes anything like important in society then you will pay for your groceries with it, you'll pay for gas with it, you'll pay for the ticket to dysneyland with it. So there will be a lot more transactions per user to be done.
And all these transactions also add up to the block chain, so everyone will need to get the blockchain which includes all the transactions of everyone else in the world.
I can easliy predict that the 6G of chain we have now will be meaningless once bitcoin represents some substantial part of the economy.
The 6Gig will be a daily download for every user at best. It won't take long before you will need to get a gig per minute to be up to date.
We all think the blockchain has been growing pretty fast lately, right?
Well, right now the size is related to about 55000 transactions daily. You need to get up to date with 55000 transactions per day.
Now imagine 1/10th of the world uses bitcoin to pay for their usual things.
We get 1/10th of 7x10^9 = 7x10^8 people participating.
Let's take an average of 5 transactions per user per day. You need to buy gas, you get an icecream, you pay the rent, etc.
(i'm just using some ballpark figures here to see where we get)
This gives us 1.4x10^9 transactions daily. 1.400.000.000 transactions per day.
That means the blockchain will grow about 25000 times faster than it does now.

Lets make an estimate of how much the blockchain grows right now.

In the last 1.2 months the blockchain grew by about a gigabyte.
On average that is about 0.0269 gigabyte per day. This gives us about 27.5 MB per day.
Ok, so now let's multiply this by our projected change in magnitude.
We get 27.5 x 25000 = 672 gigabyte per day !!

So in the situation where 1/10 of the world population does 5 bitcoin transactions per day on average everyone will need to download 672 gigabytes of new blockchain per day to keep up. If you didn't update for 2 days you'll need to download over 1TB . If you didn't touch your wallet for a month you'll be pumping 20TB to get up to date. And all this to be able to use bitcoin as a currency.
After only a year of hoarding blockchain everyone would have about 240TB of blockchain stored locally.

I think this will be problematic from an energy point of view even before the practical problems of storage become too devastating.


THANK YOU MOBO DICK
BULLS BITCOIN IS HORRIBLY  FLAWED, AND THIS ISN'T EVEN INCULDING CONFIRMATIONS, MAINPULATION, NOTHING BACKING THE CURRENCY, PIPE DREAM ON

[1714783487]

1714783487

[1714783487]

1714783487

[1714783487]

1714783487

[1714783487]

1714783487

[1714783487]

1714783487

[smoothie]

ALERT : BUTT HURT BEAR THAT WANTS TO BUY BACK IN! LAWL!!


 

[just1nmc]

I can't believe someone spent the time to write all that... Especially on a topic that has been discussed so much already.

[ruski]

In other news, Google Trends is showing a bearish reversal with a chance of rain. Better sell!

[ManBearPig]

I just know that when a thread title IS IN ALL CAPS, it's going to be a good 'un.

"1/10 of the world population does 5 bitcoin transactions per day"

Woah I thought you were a bear. If you think we'll ever reach that point then you my friend are a perma-bull.

Besides, if we ever reach that point, then:

a) Moore's Law will have taken care of the speedbumps.

b) I will be too rich to give a fuck.

[jubalix]

Yes I down load the enitre hotmail database every time I want to read my latestst email....NOT

ELECTRUM

/THREAD

PLEASE READ POST BY MOBO DICK



According to http://blockchain.info/charts/blocks-size we're aproaching 6 gigabytes for the blockchain.
According to http://torrentfreak.com/bittorrent-and-netflix-dominate-americas-internet-traffic-111027/ Netflix is 34% of total...

I can't find numbers on exact transfer rate of the internet. But lets say ~1 exabyte per day (someone got a source to the real data?) so we're looking at netflix transfering 333,000 terabytes per day. This means that even if you had 55,500,000 bitcoiners downloading the entire blockchain every single day... you'd still be consuming less than netflix does on a daily basis.

For real numbers, number of tx * number of nodes * time = transfer rate of bitcoin network  ... feel free to include an estimation of non-current blocks being transfered to out of sync clients.


The difficult seems to be that when bitcoin grows the potential for transactions also grows. The more people there are in the bitcoin economy the more there is to transact in the bitcoin economy.
It's related to the problems you get with interprocess communication in networked processing.
I can see that the number of transactions will rise at some exponential number compared to a linera rise in number of nodes.
So the ammounts of transactions wil grow faster than the ammounts of nodes.
If bitcoin becomes anything like important in society then you will pay for your groceries with it, you'll pay for gas with it, you'll pay for the ticket to dysneyland with it. So there will be a lot more transactions per user to be done.
And all these transactions also add up to the block chain, so everyone will need to get the blockchain which includes all the transactions of everyone else in the world.
I can easliy predict that the 6G of chain we have now will be meaningless once bitcoin represents some substantial part of the economy.
The 6Gig will be a daily download for every user at best. It won't take long before you will need to get a gig per minute to be up to date.
We all think the blockchain has been growing pretty fast lately, right?
Well, right now the size is related to about 55000 transactions daily. You need to get up to date with 55000 transactions per day.
Now imagine 1/10th of the world uses bitcoin to pay for their usual things.
We get 1/10th of 7x10^9 = 7x10^8 people participating.
Let's take an average of 5 transactions per user per day. You need to buy gas, you get an icecream, you pay the rent, etc.
(i'm just using some ballpark figures here to see where we get)
This gives us 1.4x10^9 transactions daily. 1.400.000.000 transactions per day.
That means the blockchain will grow about 25000 times faster than it does now.

Lets make an estimate of how much the blockchain grows right now.

In the last 1.2 months the blockchain grew by about a gigabyte.
On average that is about 0.0269 gigabyte per day. This gives us about 27.5 MB per day.
Ok, so now let's multiply this by our projected change in magnitude.
We get 27.5 x 25000 = 672 gigabyte per day !!

So in the situation where 1/10 of the world population does 5 bitcoin transactions per day on average everyone will need to download 672 gigabytes of new blockchain per day to keep up. If you didn't update for 2 days you'll need to download over 1TB . If you didn't touch your wallet for a month you'll be pumping 20TB to get up to date. And all this to be able to use bitcoin as a currency.
After only a year of hoarding blockchain everyone would have about 240TB of blockchain stored locally.

I think this will be problematic from an energy point of view even before the practical problems of storage become too devastating.


THANK YOU MOBO DICK
BULLS BITCOIN IS HORRIBLY  FLAWED, AND THIS ISN'T EVEN INCULDING CONFIRMATIONS, MAINPULATION, NOTHING BACKING THE CURRENCY, PIPE DREAM ON

[Miz4r]

Nice copy-paste job. This is an old debate by the way and has been refuted already, do a search on the forum and have fun reading and learning.

[ruski]

And to the left, we see OP demonstrating his mastery of Google Trends

[JimiQ84]

Jesus, just read bitcoin wiki - https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Scalability

[Technomage]

Moderator, please moderate this crap.

[nkspace]

BULLS IN DENIAL! THERES THE FACTS, BITCOINS CANNOT BE SCALED AS IT WILL BECOME IMPRACTICAL THEREFORE BITCOIN IS A FLAWED CURRENCY, AND EVERYONE IS WASTING 160 DOLLARS ON A FLAWED CURRENCY, T HAT CAN NEVER TRULEY SCALE BY ITS DESIGN !

[awakening]

BULLS IN DENIAL! THERES THE FACTS, BITCOINS CANNOT BE SCALED AS IT WILL BECOME IMPRACTICAL THEREFORE BITCOIN IS A FLAWED CURRENCY, AND EVERYONE IS WASTING 160 DOLLARS ON A FLAWED CURRENCY, T HAT CAN NEVER TRULEY SCALE BY ITS DESIGN !

You're stupid or just a troll ?

[nkspace]

IM A BEAR

[smoothie]

BULLS IN DENIAL! THERES THE FACTS, BITCOINS CANNOT BE SCALED AS IT WILL BECOME IMPRACTICAL THEREFORE BITCOIN IS A FLAWED CURRENCY, AND EVERYONE IS WASTING 160 DOLLARS ON A FLAWED CURRENCY, T HAT CAN NEVER TRULEY SCALE BY ITS DESIGN !

Translation: "Sell you fucking bulls. I need to back back cheap around $103."

 

[djalexr]

[Viceroy]

I agree bitcoin is broken, but it's not the reason you site.  The reason it's broken is that ASICs have shipped and there will no longer be any incentive to mine.  See here:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=179033

[anu]

I agree bitcoin is broken, but it's not the reason you site.  The reason it's broken is that ASICs have shipped and there will no longer be any incentive to mine.  See here:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=179033

You mean those who bought ASICs don't have incentives to mine? And therefore Bitcoin is broken?

You make even less sense here than on the PoliceState thread.

[nkspace]

what is means anu ranu panu lanu wanu, is thatcontrol of the monetary system will be in the hands of those with enough capital to afford asics and have farms, a bit like bankers in control of cypriots money, therefore with bitcoin NOTHING HAS CHANGED

[ruski]

what is means anu ranu panu lanu wanu, is thatcontrol of the monetary system will be in the hands of those with enough capital to afford asics and have farms, a bit like nakers in control of cypriots money, therefore with bitcoin NOTHING HAS CHANGED

Arabic drums are in control of Cypriot money? This is some Illuminati shit right here. Tell me more!

[smoothie]

This thread has so much butthurt in it from the bears. Well one for sure lol

[naphto]

This is not an issue.

[anu]

what is means anu ranu panu lanu wanu, is thatcontrol of the monetary system will be in the hands of those with enough capital to afford asics and have farms, a bit like bankers in control of cypriots money, therefore with bitcoin NOTHING HAS CHANGED

Capital will be in the hands of those with capital. Wow, this is deep!

[nkspace]

i knew it ANU! your in it for the dough, not for what bitcoin stands for, satoshi made it so the users could mine, not aspics, therefore wealtth would be evenly ditributed, between the ussers, say hello to the aspics, no longer the case, THINK ABOUT IT

[nkspace]

geez anu, not that smart are ya

[smoothie]

geez anu, not that smart are ya

...and you are lol

[nkspace]

i only have 2 doctoral PHD, a masters, and can juggle 10 balls at once

[smoothie]

i only have 2 doctoral PHD, a masters, and can juggle 10 balls at once

You should sue somebody. Those years of schooling haven't helped you gain any common sense. lol

[BTC Books]

Another day, another noob, another fundamental flaw...

[herzmeister]

no, Satoshi talked from the very early on that mining would happen in specialized data centers over time.

[JimiQ84]

c'mon, is this dude proudhon or what?

[nkspace]

satoshi also abandoned bitcoin , why ? becouse he knew how annoying bulls would be, probably stalk him, sniff his underwear and stuff,

[Piper67]

i only have 2 doctoral PHD, a masters, and can juggle 10 balls at once

Doctoral PHD, as opposed to that other kind  

One of them is NOT in English.

[oakpacific]

no, Satoshi talked from the very early on that mining would happen in specialized data centers over time.

And when you become so filthy rich with Bitcoin appreciating to a value so high that it's worthwhile to bulid specialized datacenters to mine them,  it's not that extraordinary for some of you to come together and build such a datacenter to protect the network and your own wealth.

[Piper67]

no, Satoshi talked from the very early on that mining would happen in specialized data centers over time.

And when you become so rich with Bitcoin appreciating to a value so high that it's worthwhile to bulid specialized datacenters to mine them,  it's not that extraordinary for some of you to come together and build such a datacenter to protect the network and your own wealth.

Seems like a bit of a waste on a thread like this, but isn't rpietila discussing this same idea, and calling it "supernodes"?

[BTC Books]

c'mon, is this dude proudhon or what?

Hey - proudhon is a bull these days.

But watch out - this nkspace guy has FIVE DICKS!

i only have 2 doctoral PHD, a masters, and can juggle 10 balls at once

So we're all pretty much outclassed...

[🏰 TradeFortress 🏰]

Your logic is flawed. I'd post more but smoothie already did.

[smoothie]

Your logic is flawed. I'd post more but smoothie already did.

I got this. 

[Viceroy]

no, Satoshi talked from the very early on that mining would happen in specialized data centers over time.

Where did he talk about that?  That really seems to be antithetical to "peer-to-peer".

i only have 2 doctoral PHD, a masters, and can juggle 10 balls at once

You should sue somebody. Those years of schooling haven't helped you gain any common sense. lol

While this post is funny, I received a 7 day ban for sharing a picture of a gutted cat, how do you not get banned for trolling Smoothie?

[nkspace]

smoothies a massive troll, so big of a troll, smoothies bribesthe mods in bitcoins to not ban him, so smoothie can troll some more

[nkspace]

yeh i would like to know where satoshi says that also, defeats the object

[herzmeister]

Where did he talk about that?  That really seems to be antithetical to "peer-to-peer".

it's peer-to-peer but that doesn't mean the infrastructure shouldn't grow up and out of moms' basements.

http://www.mail-archive.com/cryptography@metzdowd.com/msg09964.html

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=46423.msg558986#msg558986

Apple started in a garage too. Everything that's intending to be more successful will eventually have to become more professional. Deal with it.  

[anu]

smoothies a massive troll, so big of a troll, smoothies bribesthe mods in bitcoins to not ban him, so smoothie can troll some more

hark who's talking.

[BitcoinAshley]

Op is clearly a newb, this has been discussed ad nauseum in other sections of the forum. Op you have some reading to do...

Yes, that's right, in the last 4 years, people have actually spend significant amounts of time discussing SCALABILITY, and there is even an article on the Wiki about it. Yet you act like you are the first person to think of it. You're SO original.

OMG GUY SGUESS WHAT

I TYPE IN ALL CAPS,

AND ALSO,

BITCOIN WILL FAIL CUZ THERE IS A FUNDAMENTAL FLAW, ITS CALLED 51% ATTACK, ALL U NEED 2 DO IS GET 51% OF HASSHING POWR AND U WIN BITCOIN

NO 1 HAS EVER CONSIDERED THIS B4

[Jaroslaw]

get ready for this guys. I hope you have seat belts locked.

[Miz4r]

smoothies a massive troll, so big of a troll, smoothies bribesthe mods in bitcoins to not ban him, so smoothie can troll some more

How old are you? You sound very childish and are unable to communicate like a sensible person. Don't try to act smarter than you are around here, you're only making a big fool of yourself. You're still young so maybe in a few years you will be able to look back and laugh at how stupid you were.

[Viceroy]

Where did he talk about that?  That really seems to be antithetical to "peer-to-peer".

it's peer-to-peer but that doesn't mean the infrastructure shouldn't grow up and out of moms' basements.

http://www.mail-archive.com/cryptography@metzdowd.com/msg09964.html

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=46423.msg558986#msg558986

Apple started in a garage too. Everything that's intending to be more successful will eventually have to become more professional. Deal with it.  

Thank you for the link.  Here is what he said:  "At first, most users would run network nodes, but as the network grows beyond a certain point, it would be left more and more to specialists with server farms of specialized hardware.  A server farm would only need to have one node on the network and the rest of the LAN connects with that one node."

I do not think Satoshi had any vision of ASICs when this was written 5 years ago.  He talks about this problem in network traffic and he appears to envision farms to solve that problem though it is NOT clear he is talking about centralized mining in this comment.  If I had the chance I'd ask "don't ASICs break Bitcoin by removing the peer-to-peer ideology" and see what his answer is.  I bet he thinks it's broken too. 

[Piper67]

Where did he talk about that?  That really seems to be antithetical to "peer-to-peer".

it's peer-to-peer but that doesn't mean the infrastructure shouldn't grow up and out of moms' basements.

http://www.mail-archive.com/cryptography@metzdowd.com/msg09964.html

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=46423.msg558986#msg558986

Apple started in a garage too. Everything that's intending to be more successful will eventually have to become more professional. Deal with it.  

Thank you for the link.  Here is what he said:  "At first, most users would run network nodes, but as the network grows beyond a certain point, it would be left more and more to specialists with server farms of specialized hardware.  A server farm would only need to have one node on the network and the rest of the LAN connects with that one node."

I do not think Satoshi had any vision of ASICs when this was written 5 years ago.  He talks about this problem in network traffic and he appears to envision farms to solve that problem though it is NOT clear he is talking about centralized mining in this comment.  If I had the chance I'd ask "don't ASICs break Bitcoin by removing the peer-to-peer ideology" and see what his answer is.  I bet he thinks it's broken too. 

How is an Asic NOT a specialised hardware farm???

As for your assertion as to what Satoshi may or may not think: a) it's irrelevant (both the assertion and his thoughts) and b) it's unfalsifiable...

[BitPirate]

i knew it ANU! your in it for the dough, not for what bitcoin stands for, satoshi made it so the users could mine, not aspics, therefore wealtth would be evenly ditributed, between the ussers, say hello to the aspics, no longer the case, THINK ABOUT IT

I recognise your (lack of) writing style. It seems a lot of these borderline-insane, rushed, over-animated bear posts are written by the same one or two people either trolling or just trying to get a rise. Are you from SomethingAweful?

[nkspace]

my lack of writing style, lacks your opinion

[Viceroy]

Lol, are the goons (SomethingAweful) driving the price of bitcoin down so they can get it cheap?

[LaggedOnUser]

Know what else can't scale?  Dollars.  We're running out of pictures of dead presidents to print on them!  Oh noes!!  If everyone wipes their bum with US currency, we'll run out of wrinkly paper, green ink and trees!!! LOL! 

[Le Happy Merchant]

yeh i would like to know where satoshi says that also, defeats the object

You can go back through his posts. He posted on this site, you don't even need to leave it.

As for defeating the objective, that's retarded, as Satoshi set the objective himself.

[Viceroy]

How is an Asic NOT a specialised hardware farm???

rather than making people re-read the entire thing a fourth time I've edited out what was said so I could deal with just this issue...  

Given the context in that link I think he was talking about needing high speed network traffic not removing the peer-to-peer nature of the design as emphasized when it is the third phrase used in the paper.  But thanks for taking the opportunity to attack me, I always welcome that.

[smoothie]

smoothies a massive troll, so big of a troll, smoothies bribesthe mods in bitcoins to not ban him, so smoothie can troll some more

Wow now I can expose you as the liar you are.

Any mod want to comment on this? lol  

@nkspace, you are pretty pathetic at "trolling".

Your justification for a price fall is simple: COPY-PASTE oh and "I SOLD LOWER SO FUCKING SELL SO I CAN BUY BACK IN"

So fucking funny how you fail to troll and also fail in trading BTC.

[seleme]

2 of you could be such a good friends, two sides of same coin

[DoomDumas]

I like the Ignore button !  A must to enjoy this forum, sadly !

[bitcon]

OP says thinks huge fundamental flae, yet in another post says he can wait to buy back in at $100.

[smoothie]

OP says thinks huge fundamental flae, yet in another post says he can wait to buy back in at $100.

pigs and their contradictions. lol

[ruski]

my lack of writing style, lacks your opinion

[Jaroslaw]

Oh snap price is going down

[smoothie]

Oh snap price is going down

Oh snap it isn't below $100... lol 

[Jaroslaw]

Oh snap price is going down

Oh snap it isn't below $100... lol 

It will be 40$ in 2 days isnt enough for you ? no problem another -40$ are comming

[smoothie]

Oh snap price is going down

Oh snap it isn't below $100... lol  

It will be 40$ in 2 days isnt enough for you ? no problem another -40$ are comming

Care to make an escrowed bet with a moderator on this forum?

I'll put up 250 btc that bitcoin will not hit $40/BTC on MTGOX in two days time from now.

Chicken?  

[Jaroslaw]

Oh snap price is going down

Oh snap it isn't below $100... lol  

It will be 40$ in 2 days isnt enough for you ? no problem another -40$ are comming

Care to make an escrowed bet with a moderator on this forum?

I'll put up 250 btc that bitcoin will not hit $40/BTC on MTGOX in two days time from now.

Chicken?  

I put 250BTC that bitcoin will not hit 166$ in two days time from now.

Chicken ?

[smoothie]

Oh snap price is going down

Oh snap it isn't below $100... lol  

It will be 40$ in 2 days isnt enough for you ? no problem another -40$ are comming

Care to make an escrowed bet with a moderator on this forum?

I'll put up 250 btc that bitcoin will not hit $40/BTC on MTGOX in two days time from now.

Chicken?  

I put 250BTC that bitcoin will not hit 166$ in two days time from now.

Chicken ?

I'm not the one making claims.

Looks like you are a pussy. Making claims and can't back it up.

Another one bites the dust ROFL!

[Jaroslaw]

Oh snap price is going down

Oh snap it isn't below $100... lol  

It will be 40$ in 2 days isnt enough for you ? no problem another -40$ are comming

Care to make an escrowed bet with a moderator on this forum?

I'll put up 250 btc that bitcoin will not hit $40/BTC on MTGOX in two days time from now.

Chicken?  

I put 250BTC that bitcoin will not hit 166$ in two days time from now.

Chicken ?

I'm not the one making claims.

Looks like you are a pussy. Making claims and can't back it up.

Another one bites the dust ROFL!

Poor guy Double digits here we come Chicken

[smoothie]

Oh snap price is going down

Oh snap it isn't below $100... lol  

It will be 40$ in 2 days isnt enough for you ? no problem another -40$ are comming

Care to make an escrowed bet with a moderator on this forum?

I'll put up 250 btc that bitcoin will not hit $40/BTC on MTGOX in two days time from now.

Chicken?  

I put 250BTC that bitcoin will not hit 166$ in two days time from now.

Chicken ?

I'm not the one making claims.

Looks like you are a pussy. Making claims and can't back it up.

Another one bites the dust ROFL!

Poor guy Double digits here we come Chicken

$129....i count three digits still noob lol

Oh and you still didnt accept my bet. Pussy Chicken? lol

[arepo]

stop nesting quotes guys, snip the damn things down, geez...

[Jaroslaw]

Oh snap price is going down

Oh snap it isn't below $100... lol  

It will be 40$ in 2 days isnt enough for you ? no problem another -40$ are comming

Care to make an escrowed bet with a moderator on this forum?

I'll put up 250 btc that bitcoin will not hit $40/BTC on MTGOX in two days time from now.

Chicken?  

I put 250BTC that bitcoin will not hit 166$ in two days time from now.

Chicken ?

I'm not the one making claims.

Looks like you are a pussy. Making claims and can't back it up.

Another one bites the dust ROFL!

Poor guy Double digits here we come Chicken

$129....i count three digits still noob lol

Oh and you still didnt accept my bet. Pussy Chicken? lol

I feel thay you get all in where BTC was 255$ poor guy get a life

[smoothie]

I feel thay you get all in where BTC was 255$ poor guy get a life

What? lol