A Noobs thoughts on BTC

[cellard]

Bitcoin will never have a stable price, because bitcoin is not regulated, and you need regulation to keep a stable price, this is basic to understand.

The good news is, you can get rich by holding it, just like you hold gold. Bitcoin is gold 2.0, very undervalued, will go x100 in the next 10 years.

In order for mainstream usage to happen, we need segwit, lightning networks so we get instant payments, and shops will probably insta convert to stable fiat.

Fiat will never disappear as long as there are states and countries, but we dont need it to disappear to get insanely rich from holding BTC long term anyway.

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[Mumbeeptind1963]

So i was skeptical back in 2013 when btc made their initial splash into the mainstream radar.

I recently became interested in cryptocurrencies because i was finally able to wrap my head the ideas behind blockchain and now firmly believe it is the future.

I went out and bought some BTC, ETH and LTC

Obviously Japan recognizing BtC as a form of currency is huge but i am wondering which of these cryptocurrencies will be around in 10-20 years time.

Most holders of these cryptos are in it for purely speculative reasons and in turn, creating large bubbles.

The only way thes bubbles will resolve is from 3 things that need to happen:

-wider usage . Btc needs to be able to be used to be able to purchase anything that traditional fiat is able to. This is obviously a no brainer. Btc needs to be spread out in the hands of more people

- price needs to stabilize - the fluctuation in price is insane and needs to stabilize, in order for this to happen btc needs further distribution. Hoarders (chinese farmers and early miners) are a negative, see below.

- fiat currency needs to disappear- this is obviously a radical thought but fiat cannot be an option. The reason is, guys like the mysterious satoshi nakamoto, chinese btc farmers, the vinklevoss twins etc or anyone holding a significant amount of btc can literally tank the btc ecosystem by trading out a large sum of btc to lets say us dollars.

This would create a huge price instability, loss of public trust and then we circle back to square one.

Just wanted to share my thoughts.

I am in as a skeptical long term buyer but did want to address some possible pitfalls to btc

bitcoin has no stable value yet it has the greates and highest value nowadays. I also have other alt coins as well, because when the other alt coin rises among my other alt coins I will convert to one another, I think I will have a good profit on it.

[Victorycoin]

...
Sorry for the late reply. Busy with work etc

to call bitcoin a commodity. I get it, maybe you heard someone say it was a commodity but BTC is not a commodity and i dont think you understand what a commodity is

i can not explain it in better English that the following two links:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commodity
www.investopedia.com/terms/c/commodity.asp

and in my opinion bitcoin doesn't have to be only one thing. it can be a commodity and a currency at the same time.
many people call it commodity maybe because in US, the IRS has recognized bitcoin only as a commodity to tax it easier!
but as we can see at the same time on the other side of the world in Japan they have recognized bitcoin as a currency.

Why are you guys drawing back the hand of the clock? Bitcoin is a revolution that is pointing the way of the future of money and you dont expect it to accomplish that much by remaining what it used to be. We know gold is a commodity as well as a store of value but Bitcoin is everything gold is and even much more. 

[aeternus]

Bitcoin does not need fiat to disappear to stabilize its price, the price of bitcoin is unstable because there are huge whales with huge stash that can manipulate the price at will the only way for that to change is the price to go up and for the whales to take the opportunity to get out of bitcoin .

We all need fiat to convert our bitcoin and that is why bitcoin will never replace the fiat system. Please be realistic, we are happy
when we see the value of bitcoin is increasing because it gives us the opportunity to cash out with a profit.

At least read the post before answering I never said anything about bitcoin to replace fiat at all in fact I sated that was not necessary to bring stability to the price.

[deisik]

Bitcoin will never have a stable price, because bitcoin is not regulated, and you need regulation to keep a stable price, this is basic to understand

Could you explain how regulation will make Bitcoin more stable?

After all, price is still determined by the balance of supply against demand, and as I suspect, Bitcoin is no exception to this rule. So if you basically claim that Bitcoin regulation will somehow make Bitcoin prices more stable, that necessarily means that regulation should affect supply and demand. To make prices stable both sides of this balance should increase multifold, and how exactly Bitcoin regulation is going to do that?

[Amph]

Bitcoin will never have a stable price, because bitcoin is not regulated, and you need regulation to keep a stable price, this is basic to understand

Could you explain how regulation will make Bitcoin more stable?

After all, price is still determined by the balance of supply against demand, and as I suspect, Bitcoin is no exception to this rule. So if you basically claim that Bitcoin regulation will somehow make Bitcoin prices more stable, that necessarily means that regulation should affect supply and demand. To make prices stable both sides of this balance should increase multifold, and how exactly Bitcoin regulation is going to do that?

i think he mean that regulation can increase adoption, we have a case in japan where regulation made adoption in japan far higher, this is also proven by the very high volume they have on exchange, the highest among all

so in theory if all country do the same, we can have a better adoption that will lead to more stability, which make sense

[dinofelis]

Bitcoin will never have a stable price, because bitcoin is not regulated, and you need regulation to keep a stable price, this is basic to understand

Could you explain how regulation will make Bitcoin more stable?

After all, price is still determined by the balance of supply against demand, and as I suspect, Bitcoin is no exception to this rule. So if you basically claim that Bitcoin regulation will somehow make Bitcoin prices more stable, that necessarily means that regulation should affect supply and demand. To make prices stable both sides of this balance should increase multifold, and how exactly Bitcoin regulation is going to do that?

Indeed, a collectible can never be stable value money.  So "regulated" probably means that one can change the emission scheme (the 21 million coins) by a centralized "miner" authority, and that one can also destroy coins. 

But this could also be established in another way, if a central authority lay its hands on, say 99.999% of the bitcoin supply, and only issued very very small quantities of it, it could still, with a given, fixed supply, regulate emission and hence offer, so that it meets demand at a given price.

[deisik]

Bitcoin will never have a stable price, because bitcoin is not regulated, and you need regulation to keep a stable price, this is basic to understand

Could you explain how regulation will make Bitcoin more stable?

After all, price is still determined by the balance of supply against demand, and as I suspect, Bitcoin is no exception to this rule. So if you basically claim that Bitcoin regulation will somehow make Bitcoin prices more stable, that necessarily means that regulation should affect supply and demand. To make prices stable both sides of this balance should increase multifold, and how exactly Bitcoin regulation is going to do that?

i think he mean that regulation can increase adoption, we have a case in japan where regulation made adoption in japan far higher, this is also proven by the very high volume they have on exchange, the highest among all

so in theory if all country do the same, we can have a better adoption that will lead to more stability, which make sense

Even if so, how increased adoption could make prices more stable?

Okay, Japan seems to have legally accepted Bitcoin, say, on the same terms as the US dollar is accepted there (not as a legal tender, of course, but just like any other full-fledged currency). And we see the price sky-rocketing (due to increased adoption as per your reasoning), so how can it possibly contribute to more stable prices? I guess in reality we are going to see the direct opposite of that until the balance between volatility and price is found (but the latter should not be confused with price stability since this balance refers to volatility, not price as such)

[Wesimon]

-wider usage . Btc needs to be able to be used to be able to purchase anything that traditional fiat is able to. This is obviously a no brainer. Btc needs to be spread out in the hands of more people

I would agree for this one. Based from the law of demand and the law of supply, the more people demand for a product, the higher its value become and if the supply is few, also the value will go up. Same with the wide usage of bitcoin, if bitcoin is used by many people, they will demand more bitcoin to support their transactions in a daily basis and since bitcoin's supply is up to 21 million only, then bitcoin's value will soar upward.

- price needs to stabilize - the fluctuation in price is insane and needs to stabilize, in order for this to happen btc needs further distribution. Hoarders (chinese farmers and early miners) are a negative, see below.

Stabilizing bitcoin's price would mean constant demand and constant supply which is unlikely to happen. More and more people will use bitcoin and will hoard bitcoin for future purposes or for investment.

- fiat currency needs to disappear- this is obviously a radical thought but fiat cannot be an option. The reason is, guys like the mysterious satoshi nakamoto, chinese btc farmers, the vinklevoss twins etc or anyone holding a significant amount of btc can literally tank the btc ecosystem by trading out a large sum of btc to lets say us dollars.

This will never happen. Bitcoin will not surpass fiat and fiat will never disappear. Bitcoin will just probably be an alternative for fiat. The government trusts fiat more than bitcoin.

[deisik]

Bitcoin will never have a stable price, because bitcoin is not regulated, and you need regulation to keep a stable price, this is basic to understand

Could you explain how regulation will make Bitcoin more stable?

After all, price is still determined by the balance of supply against demand, and as I suspect, Bitcoin is no exception to this rule. So if you basically claim that Bitcoin regulation will somehow make Bitcoin prices more stable, that necessarily means that regulation should affect supply and demand. To make prices stable both sides of this balance should increase multifold, and how exactly Bitcoin regulation is going to do that?

Indeed, a collectible can never be stable value money.  So "regulated" probably means that one can change the emission scheme (the 21 million coins) by a centralized "miner" authority, and that one can also destroy coins. 

But this could also be established in another way, if a central authority lay its hands on, say 99.999% of the bitcoin supply, and only issued very very small quantities of it, it could still, with a given, fixed supply, regulate emission and hence offer, so that it meets demand at a given price totally pointless

But what's the purpose of that?

Apart from that, I don't think that it is technically possible, you could control 99% of all coins issued but would you be able to control the price? Obviously, you won't be the only one selling as well as buying, so your efforts would be mostly in vain (even if there were some purpose in that). I guess it would be like dancing on the tip of a needle. You would have to not only control most coins but also places where coins can be traded as well as those who can buy and sell. In other words, that would be an exercise in futility totally pointless

[dinofelis]

Bitcoin will never have a stable price, because bitcoin is not regulated, and you need regulation to keep a stable price, this is basic to understand

Could you explain how regulation will make Bitcoin more stable?

After all, price is still determined by the balance of supply against demand, and as I suspect, Bitcoin is no exception to this rule. So if you basically claim that Bitcoin regulation will somehow make Bitcoin prices more stable, that necessarily means that regulation should affect supply and demand. To make prices stable both sides of this balance should increase multifold, and how exactly Bitcoin regulation is going to do that?

Indeed, a collectible can never be stable value money.  So "regulated" probably means that one can change the emission scheme (the 21 million coins) by a centralized "miner" authority, and that one can also destroy coins. 

But this could also be established in another way, if a central authority lay its hands on, say 99.999% of the bitcoin supply, and only issued very very small quantities of it, it could still, with a given, fixed supply, regulate emission and hence offer, so that it meets demand at a given price totally pointless

But what's the purpose of that?

Keeping the price of the currency stable, or slightly decreasing (light inflation).  "ideal money" for Nash, and "officially" implemented by, for instance, the Euro.

In fact, slight pre-known inflation or deflation don't really matter, because they can be calculated in price settings that project into the future. 

Apart from that, I don't think that it is technically possible, you could control 99% of all coins issued but would you be able to control the price?

Of course, by putting more of it on the market, or by buying it back, just like the FED does.  If you have 99.99% of the stock, it is as if you had, as compared to the market, an infinite stock of it, so that you could "print" as much as you'd like.  In other words, you totally master the offer.  Note that 99% by itself is not going to last very long, but 99.99 % or even better, 99.99999% does.
You need to be able to, say, triple or divide by 3 the monetary mass available in the market: then you can set the price at the level where you want it (say, a slightly decreasing curve, or a constant price as compared to a basket of "value").

[TastyChillySauce00]

Bitcoin will never have a stable price, because bitcoin is not regulated, and you need regulation to keep a stable price, this is basic to understand

Could you explain how regulation will make Bitcoin more stable?

After all, price is still determined by the balance of supply against demand, and as I suspect, Bitcoin is no exception to this rule. So if you basically claim that Bitcoin regulation will somehow make Bitcoin prices more stable, that necessarily means that regulation should affect supply and demand. To make prices stable both sides of this balance should increase multifold, and how exactly Bitcoin regulation is going to do that?

i think he mean that regulation can increase adoption, we have a case in japan where regulation made adoption in japan far higher, this is also proven by the very high volume they have on exchange, the highest among all

so in theory if all country do the same, we can have a better adoption that will lead to more stability, which make sense

I think that the increase of adoption will also increase the demands but just temporary.therefore, bitcoin is still unstable as it usually is, the price of bitcoin purely affected by the ratio between demand and supply and the increase of demands will make the price higher and it doesn't reflect a stability, a stable currency is a currency with pretty static value, it's changing but really slow. Well, just my 2 cents.

[jak3]

you just remind me of mtgox back at 2011, that time people are rapidly joining the bitcoin network and everyone know the reason they all want to join and grow their money with mtgox exchange. although I never thought about trading so I never tried it but was really surprised when it got crashed and closed. those where really some dooms day that just crashed the price from 900$ to 200$ maximum people lost their money and hence because a historical day. I believe no other scenario can replace the damage made by mtgox

[mackenzied]

you just remind me of mtgox back at 2011, that time people are rapidly joining the bitcoin network and everyone know the reason they all want to join and grow their money with mtgox exchange. although I never thought about trading so I never tried it but was really surprised when it got crashed and closed. those where really some dooms day that just crashed the price from 900$ to 200$ maximum people lost their money and hence because a historical day. I believe no other scenario can replace the damage made by mtgox

It is a lesson to remind all of us, never believe in the same things. The risk is always there if we are not careful.

[deisik]

Of course, by putting more of it on the market, or by buying it back, just like the FED does.  If you have 99.99% of the stock, it is as if you had, as compared to the market, an infinite stock of it, so that you could "print" as much as you'd like.  In other words, you totally master the offer.  Note that 99% by itself is not going to last very long, but 99.99 % or even better, 99.99999% does.
You need to be able to, say, triple or divide by 3 the monetary mass available in the market: then you can set the price at the level where you want it (say, a slightly decreasing curve, or a constant price as compared to a basket of "value")

You are obviously thinking in fiat terms

But Bitcoin is not fiat, primarily because of two things. First, unlike fiat, you can't force people to use Bitcoin. You can pay with fiat the salaries of government employees and demand taxes be paid with the national currency. Bitcoin is nowhere near that. Second, the number of bitcoins is limited, so buying 99.(9)% of bitcoins is meaningless since no one will be interested in bitcoins any more after you buy up most coins (see first), and you will end up keeping useless coins with prices near 0. In short, your theory is not very credible overall and will likely fail miserably in practice (if you don't mean keeping prices constant at the floor level, of course)

[Victorycoin]

Bitcoin will never have a stable price, because bitcoin is not regulated, and you need regulation to keep a stable price, this is basic to understand

Could you explain how regulation will make Bitcoin more stable?

After all, price is still determined by the balance of supply against demand, and as I suspect, Bitcoin is no exception to this rule. So if you basically claim that Bitcoin regulation will somehow make Bitcoin prices more stable, that necessarily means that regulation should affect supply and demand. To make prices stable both sides of this balance should increase multifold, and how exactly Bitcoin regulation is going to do that?

i think he mean that regulation can increase adoption, we have a case in japan where regulation made adoption in japan far higher, this is also proven by the very high volume they have on exchange, the highest among all

so in theory if all country do the same, we can have a better adoption that will lead to more stability, which make sense

What we know to be responsible for the increase in volume of transaction now in Japan is the diversions coming out of China as a result of their government trying to regulate Bitcoin the way they deem fit. Japanese regulation is rather a soft landing that is encouraging businesses to thrive, whereas China's regulation is more or less a noose.

That beings us to the fact that regulation can mean many things depending on what those behind it are aiming to accomplish. By and large it is against the spirit of Bitcoin.

[Etanllah]

I went out and bought some BTC, ETH and LTC

if you think any altcoin deserves the same attention as bitcoin you make a big mistake and you will pay for it with a lot of money lost.
be careful with eth in near future and in long term and then afterwards ltc in longterm

While I agree that Bitcoin is still the top dog by a long shot, I don't think its a bad idea to own some altcoins. I can guarantee you there are many people that have made a lot of money in a short time period on altcoins. Then you can turn around and sell the altcoin for more BTC.

But also be aware that a lot of people have lost a shit ton of money in altcoins.

[ImHash]

Anyone selling large amounts of bitcoin is literally doing the community a favor and helping a more fair distribution of it, if you want a stable market then go open a central bank in which you are able to control the market and have a stable price.
As difficulty increases the price naturally will go up and the only reason why we're not in $1500 range price is because the uncertainty caused by BU and the possibility of a hard fork.
Fiat doesn't need to go any where and we're good as long as people willing to pay fiat in exchange for bitcoin for now.
Bitcoin is not a replacement nor an alternative for fiat but just a new kind of currency which could be obtained in a decentralized manner.

If you want ETH and LTC then go start mining them while it's much easier than bitcoin mining.

[cjmoles]

Well, digital currencies are the future.  That's something that we can all bank on.  The big question is what form will that digital currency evolve into along the way.  Bitcoin has its problems but I believe that its strength lies in the confidence it has gained from the community, and as long as the community continues to support the network, bitcoin will thrive.  If there is dissension among the ranks in the community, then confidence in bitcoin will suffer.  If confidence in the bitcoin protocol suffers, the future's predominate digital currency may take the form of one of the other alternative chains....just saying.

[Yanisumin]

Well I think the beginners think that Bitcoin is a path to success, even me think that in the first time I've heard about Bitcoin. Well I can't blame them, but there is more than to that. We're battling about the futures future money, where money is the way of exchange of people, cryptography, altcoins, tradings complexity can't be understand by noobs easily. People need to learn more about BTC and cryptocurrencies. When many people learn this field, the world will be open more to cryptocurrencies and the potential of bitcoin will increase resulting to force the central banks to regulate it ( well some central banks are open now in regulating BTC ).