The Bitfinex situation - how long will it take?

[zby]

First of all it looks unlikely that Bitfinex is insolvent. It is theoretically possible that repaying their hack debt (the BFX tokens) was just a PR trick - but it does not seem likely for me. But still the problems with banks can bankrupt Bitfinex eventually.

How long it will take is the whole question here.

But there is also a second reason why it is very important how long it will take: there are currently 16.7K in BTC longs there, but over 20K BTC shorts, there is even bigger disproportion if you look at bids and asks. The longs there are dropping - especially since yesterday - presumably people liquidate their longs, claim the BTCs and withdraw them in fear of BFX bankruptcy. Others withdraw their BTCs and yet others buy BTC with whatever left funds and withdraw - creating the big price premium on Bitfinex. There is less and less BTC left on Bitfinex and the shorts are more and more exposed. Eventually we can get a huuuuge short squeeze there.

[1713494378]

1713494378

[york780]

Big exitpump confirmed.
Crash afterwards when everybody knows Bitifex Goxed the unlucky traders.
Trapped money is just gone for ever.
Make no mistake, dont use Bitfinex.
Dont let an exchange decide what to do with your money.
Gox stole it, kraken did, Bitfinex did.
Who's next?

New ATH because of the exitpump.

[zby]

Big exitpump confirmed.
...

Exitpump is one thing - combined with this level of shorts - this looks explosive!

[york780]

Bitfinex exit pump.
Nothing to see here  



Its just getting started.
It also happens with the altcoins.
This is big.

[sikke]

We cannot actually say when it will come to the end, we dont know what caused the whole suspension of wire transactions ( deposits/withdrawals ).
There is a massive panic ongoing on the bitfinex exchange, people are getting rid of the funds stored in there, just to buy overvalued bitcoin ( overvalued, because the price on bitfinex is much higher than on other exchanges ) and send it to the other wallet.

It is understandable, because cryptocurrency community does not want to risk and hold their funds on the exchange which is suddenly suspending wire transactions without any important reason!
It may turn out, that this incident is pretty much the end of bitfinex.

[darkangel11]

First of all it looks unlikely that Bitfinex is insolvent. It is theoretically possible that repaying their hack debt (the BFX tokens) was just a PR trick - but it does not seem likely for me. But still the problems with banks can bankrupt Bitfinex eventually.

How long it will take is the whole question here.

But there is also a second reason why it is very important how long it will take: there are currently 16.7K in BTC longs there, but over 20K BTC shorts, there is even bigger disproportion if you look at bids and asks. The longs there are dropping - especially since yesterday - presumably people liquidate their longs, claim the BTCs and withdraw them in fear of BFX bankruptcy. Others withdraw their BTCs and yet others buy BTC with whatever left funds and withdraw - creating the big price premium on Bitfinex. There is less and less BTC left on Bitfinex and the shorts are more and more exposed. Eventually we can get a huuuuge short squeeze there.

I agree. They are trying to resolve the situation but I think the news from the bank caught them off guard. The bank should first issue a warning and give them a week or two to let their customers know  they will be switching banks and start looking for a new deal. I think the bank hoped Bitfinex will go bankrupt and the situation will resolve itself, but they didn't, so banksters decided to help them go down. People are afraid of a MtGox situation and jumping ship, but there's no reason for panic yet.
How long? I think it will be clear within a week.

[gentlemand]

We cannot actually say when it will come to the end, we dont know what caused the whole suspension of wire transactions ( deposits/withdrawals ).

They haven't really provided one single detail of their hack and that was multiple months ago. If I was running a place as questionable on the surface as Bitfinex I'd make it a priority to communicate properly. That's if they're not crooked bastards of course.

And here's an interesting metric - https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/3D2oetdNuZUqQHPJmcMDDHYoqkyNVsFk9r

That's supposedly Bitfinex's cold wallet. As you can see it's dwindling rapidly.

[ArdiPrabowo]

iam never use bitfinex after bitfinex hack in month july 2016
but iam not understand if bitfinex can't withdraw fiat money to bank
i think bitfinex not under PBOC regulated so withdraw fiat money to bank is not problem, if can't withdraw iam not understand

[Wind_FURY]

OP, saying and thinking that Bitfinex is unlikely insolvent is a mistake especially if you have Bitcoins stored in there. I could imagine the same things were said about MtGox. There was even Roger Ver who said that everything was ok, but the truth was he was already moving out his Bitcoins. Be careful.

[pooya87]

bitfinex has proven that their business is highly profitable, so i don't think they are going to be bankrupt that easily. and the situation doesn't look insolvent at all to me. and yeah people are withdrawing bitcoin because that is what a sane person does!

and to all those who say it is a Gox thing, i have to say if it were all the withdrawals would have been blocked not just the fiat which is tied to their banks. if they wanted to run away, they would have blocked bitcoin withdrawals to prevent exiting of thousands of bitcoin.

and additional thing i like to add is that bitfinex price is high in comparison, mostly comparing to bitstamp which is intentionally dumping the price (maybe even to increase this gap!). when bitfinex was high and every other exchange was at $1200-$1205 the price on bitstamp was still $1180 ish, that is not normal in my book.

[Iranus]

The only possibilities are "next month" or "never".  If it doesn't happen within about a month, I'll assume that it'll never happen and everyone should take their funds out.  To be safe, I think people who don't take their funds out are stupid, but it's okay because their loss will just help more intelligent people take their money out before it's (potentially) too late.  Suspended withdrawals and deposits - that's not a functional exchange because it means that Bitcoin can't be exchanged for fiat anymore.  With even fiat deposits blocked, it's very unlikely it'll be sorted with the banks.

[Wind_FURY]

bitfinex has proven that their business is highly profitable, so i don't think they are going to be bankrupt that easily. and the situation doesn't look insolvent at all to me. and yeah people are withdrawing bitcoin because that is what a sane person does!

and to all those who say it is a Gox thing, i have to say if it were all the withdrawals would have been blocked not just the fiat which is tied to their banks. if they wanted to run away, they would have blocked bitcoin withdrawals to prevent exiting of thousands of bitcoin.

and additional thing i like to add is that bitfinex price is high in comparison, mostly comparing to bitstamp which is intentionally dumping the price (maybe even to increase this gap!). when bitfinex was high and every other exchange was at $1200-$1205 the price on bitstamp was still $1180 ish, that is not normal in my book.

People thinking that Bitfinex could be bankrupt is not the issue. The issue is their bank is not allowing them from moving their money in and out. Liquidity is the main issue here, meaning your money could be trapped in the exchange. But the real concern here is what if those Taiwanese banks decide to lock Bitfinex account because of the nature of their business.

[Nagadota]

bitfinex has proven that their business is highly profitable, so i don't think they are going to be bankrupt that easily. and the situation doesn't look insolvent at all to me. and yeah people are withdrawing bitcoin because that is what a sane person does!

and to all those who say it is a Gox thing, i have to say if it were all the withdrawals would have been blocked not just the fiat which is tied to their banks. if they wanted to run away, they would have blocked bitcoin withdrawals to prevent exiting of thousands of bitcoin.

and additional thing i like to add is that bitfinex price is high in comparison, mostly comparing to bitstamp which is intentionally dumping the price (maybe even to increase this gap!). when bitfinex was high and every other exchange was at $1200-$1205 the price on bitstamp was still $1180 ish, that is not normal in my book.

People thinking that Bitfinex could be bankrupt is not the issue. The issue is their bank is not allowing them from moving their money in and out. Liquidity is the main issue here, meaning your money could be trapped in the exchange. But the real concern here is what if those Taiwanese banks decide to lock Bitfinex account because of the nature of their business.

They blocked withdrawals before the bank blocked their deposits.  I don't think the dollars on the exchange right now are actually backed by real money.  It looks like everyone is just trading air and hoping this'll all blow over, but it seems unlikely.

[zby]

Looks like the HKD and CHF withdrawals story was mostly false: https://twitter.com/Bitfinexed/status/855055701697331201 - thats why it accelerated today.

[BitMaxz]

I think the're only problem is HKD and CHF. Since only the banks is their problem i think they can still resolve the issue after few weeks or months..
Like other said only in and out are blocked by the banks.. i think they are just seeing suspicious that is why bitfinex bank account was blocked..
But i think if they already know the problem why banks block their deposit and withdraw this issue should be resolve in few days. .

[zby]

Update:

https://www.bitfinex.com/posts/201

"""
Bitfinex, unfortunately, continues to experience temporary delays in the processing of outbound fiat wires. We are developing alternative channels to address these delays, but this takes time. We appreciate the patience and loyalty demonstrated by our customers and the community in this matter. We were advised by our banks that we would be able to process outbound wires in HKD and CHF, and while we were able to successfully process several such transactions, we are now being told that the moratorium is being extended to these currencies, as well.
"""

[Wind_FURY]

We should start accepting it. This could be MtGox 2.0 and it relates to the hacking of $65 million of customer funds. I do not believe the tokens they issued were effective enough to get back that loss.

bitfinex has proven that their business is highly profitable, so i don't think they are going to be bankrupt that easily. and the situation doesn't look insolvent at all to me. and yeah people are withdrawing bitcoin because that is what a sane person does!

and to all those who say it is a Gox thing, i have to say if it were all the withdrawals would have been blocked not just the fiat which is tied to their banks. if they wanted to run away, they would have blocked bitcoin withdrawals to prevent exiting of thousands of bitcoin.

and additional thing i like to add is that bitfinex price is high in comparison, mostly comparing to bitstamp which is intentionally dumping the price (maybe even to increase this gap!). when bitfinex was high and every other exchange was at $1200-$1205 the price on bitstamp was still $1180 ish, that is not normal in my book.

People thinking that Bitfinex could be bankrupt is not the issue. The issue is their bank is not allowing them from moving their money in and out. Liquidity is the main issue here, meaning your money could be trapped in the exchange. But the real concern here is what if those Taiwanese banks decide to lock Bitfinex account because of the nature of their business.

They blocked withdrawals before the bank blocked their deposits.  I don't think the dollars on the exchange right now are actually backed by real money.  It looks like everyone is just trading air and hoping this'll all blow over, but it seems unlikely.

That is the problem. What would happen and how low will Bitcoin go if this new scandal hits the news?

[Shiver]

I think this is as good an explanation as any:

Tl dr; Any exchange relating to Taiwanese banks (AML standards).  Meaning; This is not a BitFinex issue, but the conventional banking system creaking and being objectionable to any challengers.

You do know that all reporting of money transfers. the US has to be informed, even if sending pesos to bolivar without wishing to use USD?  They force other countries to break their own laws to remain friends with US.  I feel bad for people of the USA, though nothing but contempt for Washington DC.

Anyhow:

https://medium.com/@whalecalls/taiwan-aml-reforms-usd-crypto-drama-15417cbcdf7b

[Mikkiun]

I feel worried about this issue of this exchange. it will take so long to get a new bank for deposit or no banks joining in this situation. just go and find another exchange for my convenience.

[freedomno1]

First of all it looks unlikely that Bitfinex is insolvent. It is theoretically possible that repaying their hack debt (the BFX tokens) was just a PR trick - but it does not seem likely for me. But still the problems with banks can bankrupt Bitfinex eventually.

How long it will take is the whole question here.

But there is also a second reason why it is very important how long it will take: there are currently 16.7K in BTC longs there, but over 20K BTC shorts, there is even bigger disproportion if you look at bids and asks. The longs there are dropping - especially since yesterday - presumably people liquidate their longs, claim the BTCs and withdraw them in fear of BFX bankruptcy. Others withdraw their BTCs and yet others buy BTC with whatever left funds and withdraw - creating the big price premium on Bitfinex. There is less and less BTC left on Bitfinex and the shorts are more and more exposed. Eventually we can get a huuuuge short squeeze there.

I vote on Next Month April is ending to soon, the most scary thing is it they do a mintpal and someone swoops in trying to save the company and runs away with the coins on the transfer. In order to avoid that it's best they just hold on a bit longer and find a decent banking partner or try to establish a Bank with some venture capitalists. Seems paradoxical but in order to rely less on the bank we need a bank to do the banking function if the main banks stop working with a group.
That said playing on that exchange may seem fun but it could burn like Gox so I'd rather just observe ^^.