Speculation on the price of BTC if Bitfinex does a Gox

[aardvark15]

The price could easily dip to half what it is now if Bitfinex closed and customers lose their Bitcoins. That would be below $700. But if think it would be temporary and there would be some recovery but it would not get to $1300 for a while.

[Propane]

It seems unlikely to me to talk about Bitfinex going the Mt Gox way. Talking about this possibility is for me the best way to create panic and to lead to this scenario. For this reason I will not be speculating on something I do not believe will happen.

[york780]

It seems unlikely to me to talk about Bitfinex going the Mt Gox way. Talking about this possibility is for me the best way to create panic and to lead to this scenario. For this reason I will not be speculating on something I do not believe will happen.

Thats why u are brand new :-). Bitfinex exit pump is strong rightnow. Look at the huge premium man! Its going to explode!

[dothebeats]

Highly unlikely for finex to pull off such a feat especially when there are no signs of it lingering around to point us to the said question. Sure enough, everything can happen. We never knew beforehand that Gox will pull off a Gox, but again judging from the current state of finex, this will not happen.

[Wind_FURY]

It won't have a large effect.   

We have already gone through a situation like it, and we survived that too, so this time we'll have something to look back to and say "hey, last tme wasn't so bad".   

A lot of people are already jumping ship and using kraken now or other exchanges.

It is clear that you are not one of the victims of MtGox. If you were you will not be posting something like that. You will be devastated that it is happening again and that now other people will go through what you have gone through because they think they can look back and say "hey, last time was not so bad".

Try depositing all the Bitcoin you have in Bitfinex.

[European Central Bank]

The price could easily dip to half what it is now if Bitfinex closed and customers lose their Bitcoins. That would be below $700. But if think it would be temporary and there would be some recovery but it would not get to $1300 for a while.

The amount of coins in their cold wallet has been dwindling rapidly. That tells us that everyone who wants out is getting out fine and there are no reports of crypto problems. And if it does die there'll be far fewer coins lost as it drags on.

If it can't solve its problems then it's gonna be a gradual death that's publicly observable and not an implosion. There won't be any shocks to the system but there will be a slow burning effect.

[User705]

Is it possible that it's not insolvency but KYC/AML?   Bitfinex is having issues not because it's MT Gox but because it was just like the Chinese exchanges and especially the tether crypto which is literally the definition of money laundering.  The only exchanges allowed to be left standing are full KYC/AML exchanges.  The issue is the huge amount of daily money that needs to be put into BTC and all the other crypto just to maintain current price levels and if the only way that can be done is through full KYC/AML exchanges it's unlikely the price levels will be maintained. 

[JariKriting]

bitcoin price in bitfinex not effect another exchanger
you can see yesterday in bitfinex bitcoin price incraese to 1350 dollar, but another exchanger not follow bitfinex price

[alyssa85]

The price could easily dip to half what it is now if Bitfinex closed and customers lose their Bitcoins. That would be below $700. But if think it would be temporary and there would be some recovery but it would not get to $1300 for a while.

The amount of coins in their cold wallet has been dwindling rapidly. That tells us that everyone who wants out is getting out fine and there are no reports of crypto problems. And if it does die there'll be far fewer coins lost as it drags on.

If it can't solve its problems then it's gonna be a gradual death that's publicly observable and not an implosion. There won't be any shocks to the system but there will be a slow burning effect.

This. Gradual death is fine - lots of exchanges have gradual deaths, it is the nature of capitalism. The important thing is that financial losses are few, and the more people who get their money out, the better, because they can just trade somewhere else and life will go on.

[1Referee]

This. Gradual death is fine - lots of exchanges have gradual deaths, it is the nature of capitalism. The important thing is that financial losses are few, and the more people who get their money out, the better, because they can just trade somewhere else and life will go on.

Problem is that people are easily tricked into believing something. Last year when Bitfinex lost a huge load of coins due to a "hack", people were furious and told that this exchange was pure trash, that it can't be trusted, that it wasn't a hack, etc. But now they have "paid back" their debt, people did a 360 and now even see it as a decent exchange. What a bunch of sheeps are they! It's mind boggling how people dare to store even a slight number of coins there. And then you have whales with thousands of coins and millions in funds in their account. It's beyond insane that such an exchange gets rewarded while it shoud have dried out last year.

[Red-Apple]

Is it possible that it's not insolvency but KYC/AML?   Bitfinex is having issues not because it's MT Gox but because it was just like the Chinese exchanges and especially the tether crypto which is literally the definition of money laundering.  The only exchanges allowed to be left standing are full KYC/AML exchanges.  The issue is the huge amount of daily money that needs to be put into BTC and all the other crypto just to maintain current price levels and if the only way that can be done is through full KYC/AML exchanges it's unlikely the price levels will be maintained. 

i think it is a good assumption. they all claim some stuff in their site or in their TOS about KYC/AML but deep down they are not really following it.
and i mostly say it is good assumption because of the things that are happening to other exchanges. you can see that OkCoin and Btc-e have already announced they have problems with their wire transfer too.

[Wind_FURY]

Is it possible that it's not insolvency but KYC/AML?   Bitfinex is having issues not because it's MT Gox but because it was just like the Chinese exchanges and especially the tether crypto which is literally the definition of money laundering.  The only exchanges allowed to be left standing are full KYC/AML exchanges.  The issue is the huge amount of daily money that needs to be put into BTC and all the other crypto just to maintain current price levels and if the only way that can be done is through full KYC/AML exchanges it's unlikely the price levels will be maintained. 

That could be it. But you should remember that Bitfinex was hacked and had funds stolen that amounted to $65m. That is a very huge loss. So the issue that they might be insolvent should always be there and should not be avoided or ignored. MtGox was in an exact same position years ago. Roger Ver said they were solvent but they were really not. We know how that story ended.

[Herbert2020]

Is it possible that it's not insolvency but KYC/AML?   Bitfinex is having issues not because it's MT Gox but because it was just like the Chinese exchanges and especially the tether crypto which is literally the definition of money laundering.  The only exchanges allowed to be left standing are full KYC/AML exchanges.  The issue is the huge amount of daily money that needs to be put into BTC and all the other crypto just to maintain current price levels and if the only way that can be done is through full KYC/AML exchanges it's unlikely the price levels will be maintained. 

That could be it. But you should remember that Bitfinex was hacked and had funds stolen that amounted to $65m. That is a very huge loss. So the issue that they might be insolvent should always be there and should not be avoided or ignored. MtGox was in an exact same position years ago. Roger Ver said they were solvent but they were really not. We know how that story ended.

Mt Gox was a tiny bit similar situation not at all the same. i have already said the differences and i am not going to repeat them again. but i would like to mention here that Btc-e has also been hacked back in 2012ish and lost a lot of money but they are still functional and working fine as before.

[alyssa85]

Is it possible that it's not insolvency but KYC/AML?   Bitfinex is having issues not because it's MT Gox but because it was just like the Chinese exchanges and especially the tether crypto which is literally the definition of money laundering.  The only exchanges allowed to be left standing are full KYC/AML exchanges.  The issue is the huge amount of daily money that needs to be put into BTC and all the other crypto just to maintain current price levels and if the only way that can be done is through full KYC/AML exchanges it's unlikely the price levels will be maintained. 

That could be it. But you should remember that Bitfinex was hacked and had funds stolen that amounted to $65m. That is a very huge loss. So the issue that they might be insolvent should always be there and should not be avoided or ignored. MtGox was in an exact same position years ago. Roger Ver said they were solvent but they were really not. We know how that story ended.

Well, apparently, Bitfinex raised the money to pay back those who were hacked. See

https://bnktothefuture.com/search/pitches

Scroll down to see the bitrfinex details. You can can only see the deep details if you are a bitfinex member, but the overall details says that they raised £42 million, 382 investors took park and they appear to have given away 25% of the equity of their business in return.

[richardsNY]

Mt Gox was a tiny bit similar situation not at all the same. i have already said the differences and i am not going to repeat them again. but i would like to mention here that Btc-e has also been hacked back in 2012ish and lost a lot of money but they are still functional and working fine as before.

There are more major exchanges that have been hacked -- major point is how they react and take care of the situation. Bitfinex has done nothing but raising the level of fear amongst their traders. Even now Bitfinex paid off its debt completely (which isn't totally true, depending on how you look at it) people still fear that exchange, and rightfully so. Only solution is that people move away from that exchange. People are weird -- they remain holding their funds in an exchange they don't fully trust. How stupid is that?

[Rahar02]

~
My opinion is that the price isn't going to drop, ~

logically speaking price shouldn't drop because there is no reason for it to drop. when you compare bitfinex to the total daily volume traded in bitcoin you can see that they are tiny with their less than 8% volume of total.
and also on top of that, even if they close down today, majority of users have already cashed out their bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies out of pure fear! so there isn't really much left on the platform!!

but we all know bitcoin price has never been logical. so if bitfinex closes down, price will drop because again majority of traders are looking for any excuse to dump and buy the weak hands cheap.

This isn't simple problem if users can't deposit or withdrawal fiat money into and out of bitfinex. They seems hold customers to cash out fiat money through bitcoin as the price reach $1370. People who gambling with this site maybe get profits, but who wants to put their bitcoin in this exchange? As bitcoin in their cold storage diminish so fast, let's see how long they will solve this problem.
If somehow bitfinex crash again, bitcoin price may drop back to $900-$1000 again, hopefully it won't happen.

[DRaGoN RaNTaRo]

The price could easily dip to half what it is now if Bitfinex closed and customers lose their Bitcoins. That would be below $700. But if think it would be temporary and there would be some recovery but it would not get to $1300 for a while.

We could see a dip in price if bitfinex gets closed down but it is hard to predict what the price would be but there wont be any major dip as during the events of Gox there were not enough exchanges where people could trade but that is not the case now.

[Wind_FURY]

Is it possible that it's not insolvency but KYC/AML?   Bitfinex is having issues not because it's MT Gox but because it was just like the Chinese exchanges and especially the tether crypto which is literally the definition of money laundering.  The only exchanges allowed to be left standing are full KYC/AML exchanges.  The issue is the huge amount of daily money that needs to be put into BTC and all the other crypto just to maintain current price levels and if the only way that can be done is through full KYC/AML exchanges it's unlikely the price levels will be maintained. 

That could be it. But you should remember that Bitfinex was hacked and had funds stolen that amounted to $65m. That is a very huge loss. So the issue that they might be insolvent should always be there and should not be avoided or ignored. MtGox was in an exact same position years ago. Roger Ver said they were solvent but they were really not. We know how that story ended.

Well, apparently, Bitfinex raised the money to pay back those who were hacked. See

https://bnktothefuture.com/search/pitches

Scroll down to see the bitrfinex details. You can can only see the deep details if you are a bitfinex member, but the overall details says that they raised £42 million, 382 investors took park and they appear to have given away 25% of the equity of their business in return.

Yes, I saw this yesterday but it does not really explain the pitch openly to the public. I would imagine 25% equity is fair if they want to be minority owner of Bitfinex. I will still not feel safe making Bitcoin deposits there though.

I believe Bitfinex also have USDT trading. Why not promote that so that their users can hold USDT in their own wallets. 

[Sithara007]

The price could easily dip to half what it is now if Bitfinex closed and customers lose their Bitcoins. That would be below $700. But if think it would be temporary and there would be some recovery but it would not get to $1300 for a while.

We could see a dip in price if bitfinex gets closed down but it is hard to predict what the price would be but there wont be any major dip as during the events of Gox there were not enough exchanges where people could trade but that is not the case now.

Not sure about that. One of the reasons why the exchange rate has gone up during the past few days is due to the ongoing issues with Bitfinex. I don't know whether the rate will go down if the exchange is liquidated.

[User705]

Is it possible that it's not insolvency but KYC/AML?   Bitfinex is having issues not because it's MT Gox but because it was just like the Chinese exchanges and especially the tether crypto which is literally the definition of money laundering.  The only exchanges allowed to be left standing are full KYC/AML exchanges.  The issue is the huge amount of daily money that needs to be put into BTC and all the other crypto just to maintain current price levels and if the only way that can be done is through full KYC/AML exchanges it's unlikely the price levels will be maintained. 

That could be it. But you should remember that Bitfinex was hacked and had funds stolen that amounted to $65m. That is a very huge loss. So the issue that they might be insolvent should always be there and should not be avoided or ignored. MtGox was in an exact same position years ago. Roger Ver said they were solvent but they were really not. We know how that story ended.

Well, apparently, Bitfinex raised the money to pay back those who were hacked. See

https://bnktothefuture.com/search/pitches

Scroll down to see the bitrfinex details. You can can only see the deep details if you are a bitfinex member, but the overall details says that they raised £42 million, 382 investors took park and they appear to have given away 25% of the equity of their business in return.

Yes, I saw this yesterday but it does not really explain the pitch openly to the public. I would imagine 25% equity is fair if they want to be minority owner of Bitfinex. I will still not feel safe making Bitcoin deposits there though.

I believe Bitfinex also have USDT trading. Why not promote that so that their users can hold USDT in their own wallets. 

Isn't USDT the exact same banks?  Can anyone confirm the ability or inability to get wires from tether?