Short-Term Market Movement Discussion/Predictions

[xorglub]

Well, looks like I was wrong. China came and joined the party... goodbye double digits for a while.
For now this rally is all speculative as the real money has not showed up yet. Might get back down to $100 as rocket fuel shipments get delayed over the weekend

[ironstove]

Recent news will have no immediate effect on the overall price movement, if any. I targeted 107 as the strike price for the weekend, which was already hit, but the decline should return back near the end of Sunday or shortly after, as for what happens between then, the price could stagnate or potentially still rally to the 130s considering the strong rally that led prices up to 116, but at this point it is too dangerous to trade considering the small walls in both directions and erratic price movements leading to skewed charts/indicators due to the mtgox lag, at this point there is a thick fog blocking vision.

Double digits are still a strong possibility, in fact, I am still leaning towards my original prediction of striking through the 80s wall by next weekend as no significant information was brought into the picture besides the CCTV/China hype. Overall, the bad news still outweighs the good.

[arepo]

I targeted 107 as the strike price for the weekend, which was already hit, but the decline should return back near the end of Sunday or shortly after, as for what happens between then, the price could stagnate or potentially still rally to the 130s considering the strong rally that led prices up to 116

my analysis has shown similar, if not more bullish projections. by fractal analysis, price could reach at most $130 by this time tomorrow, with a continued rise up to at most $150 on Monday and Tuesday, then a major correction by Wednesday.

[ironstove]

I think it's too early to call a reversal, but if you're right then 150 is certainly possible... We'd probably go even higher, maybe ~180 by June. The price is certainly volatile but I don't know if a move from 80-150 over 72 hours is possible given the price movement post crash.

As I stated earlier, the market data is extremely skewed due to the lag spikes on gox, so conclusions made from data acquired over the last 24 hours should be taken with a grain of salt.

If price strikes above 130 by Monday, then I may have to retract my claim that price would be below $100 come June, as that would be a strong indicator that the bear market is over.

However, many indicators from the data I gathered prior to lag caused me to choose ~110 as target price for the weekend, and revise it down to ~107 and ~75 as the target next week. I have no reason to change that conclusion, but I'm not a psychic, and I've been wrong many times and lost a lot of money from overextending, which is why nowadays I'm paranoid enough to diversify everything which is ironic.

Data over the next 24 hours should help me cement or revise my conclusions. We all come up with different ideas, and that's fine as long as we all make money in the end.

[Beta-coiner1]

I targeted 107 as the strike price for the weekend, which was already hit, but the decline should return back near the end of Sunday or shortly after, as for what happens between then, the price could stagnate or potentially still rally to the 130s considering the strong rally that led prices up to 116

my analysis has shown similar, if not more bullish projections. by fractal analysis, price could reach at most $130 by this time tomorrow, with a continued rise up to at most $150 on Monday and Tuesday, then a major correction by Wednesday.

........or the price correction could come tomorrow after going up over the weekend.

[arepo]

If price strikes above 130 by Monday, then I may have to retract my claim that price would be below $100 come June, as that would be a strong indicator that the bear market is over.

if the price strikes X in one day, then your midterm calculations get changed? check your scales, there... we're still in a period of high-volatility consolidation since the crash. this price oscillation isn't really significant.  we won't know bull/bear midterm until it breaks out of this consolidation decisively in 2-4 weeks.

[ironstove]

@arepo No, it's not that simple for me, the changes that would become resultant in other indicators and charts based on that strong of a price movement is what would cause me to change my analysis as I don't believe the market has that kind of firepower remaining in it. After working out the numbers for it, the main point being that we just don't have that kind of volume right now in the market to sustain that high of a movement, which might change soon enough.

Price has stabilized, volume has continued decreasing, and likelyhood of a breakout within the next 24 hours is very high. Buy walls are virtually equal (~40k) between 95 and 125 with the price currently dead in between @ 112.

I believe infllux of good news has done well to negate the selling pressure, but the buzz has started to fade and the indicators have not changed, still pointing the arrow down.

I've decided to rename this thread as the original discussion of the topic has long since passed.