Short-Term Market Movement Discussion/Predictions

[ironstove]

It's like 2011 all over again.

Edit:

This topic used to be 'Real Crash/Correction Coming' but I've renamed it to better fit what's being discussed.

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[dopamine]

welll it depends when are you going to buy in again and buy more bitcoins, because its worth alot more than dollars...

[UltimateReaper]

What do the pros think the price is going to be tomorrow morning based on the current trend?

[arepo]

haha what an epic echo bubble... which part is real growth and which part is the bubble, tho? 

[BitPirate]

It's like 2011 all over again.

Every week huh? Bullshit. Crash came and went already.

What do the pros think the price is going to be tomorrow morning based on the current trend?

No pro, but I reckon a minimum floor of 120. It's a long weekend but I wouldn't worry too much -- we came through the last long weekend quite well.

[arepo]

What do the pros think the price is going to be tomorrow morning based on the current trend?

No pro, but I reckon a minimum floor of 120. It's a long weekend but I wouldn't worry too much -- we came through the last long weekend quite well.

i concur here looks like we're going to consolidate above $120 for a little while.

[superduh]

yes, because everything in life is exactly like last time

[BitcoinAshley]

Yes, everything is EXACTLY as it was in the year 2011. Not, you know, entirely completely different in nearly every possible way, or anything like that.

 

[MAbtc]

D1 chart kind of scary looking

[smoothie]

Most of the people screaming crash are short term traders.

Nothing to see here...lol 

[Frozenlock]

D1 chart kind of scary looking

How so?

I must be blind. People keep showing charts... and all I see are charts...

[Cablez]

He is thinking bull trap with new lows approaching.  If he is right then its like the slowest bubble pop ever! lol

[glendall]

Seemed to be a lot of resistance at $130.  Looked like many a dude and dudette had buy orders in at that point. 

[MAbtc]

D1 chart kind of scary looking

How so?

I must be blind. People keep showing charts... and all I see are charts...

Just reminiscent of some other charts... I'm not an analyst, no troll please.

He is thinking bull trap with new lows approaching.  If he is right then its like the slowest bubble pop ever! lol

...how long would you say the first bubble took?

Can only tell in hindsight when capitulation is over.

[ironstove]

This is actually my first post ever claiming any directional movement, and will hopefully be my last one for a long time because after this I can only hope that bitcoin goes upwards. In the long run, I strongly believe btc will rise as I always have since 2012 when I first bought in, but when I see an imminent fall within sight, I see no reason to sell some of my holdings to see what happens in the case that a fall occurs so I can make reasonable profits, otherwise I lose out a bit, but in the big picture I've made significant gains already so I won't be bothered.

There are too many variables to list, but I have reason to believe we are on the verge of a slow and steady downward trend, what the floor is I don't know as I do not claim to be a soothsayer unlike some of you.

I don't think there will be a dramatic crash, and I could be wrong, which is why I leverage myself 50/50 anyway. In a market this easy to buy in and buy out of, there is no reason not to always have some sizable lump of fiat at hand.

[arepo]

we are indeed at a critical point, and the charts look very scary. if we break below $120, we could see a mid-term reversal, with new lows unlikely but possible. contrarily, if $120 holds here, it could be very bullish.

i feel like too many new traders were involved in the move past $130 and they all got spooked. if this theory is true, then that was just noise and we'll see consolidation here for a long while. the bulltrap was the first bounce off of $50, by my count. the second bounce had way too much volume at the bottom not to cement a mid-term low. the 'bubble' may be a long-term peak, but i doubt we're going to get action near $50 for a while, if ever.

as such, if we do move down, i suspect we'll bounce off of $90, the next critical price level.

[arepo]

There are too many variables to list, but I have reason to believe we are on the verge of a slow and steady downward trend ...

far too much buying pressure for this, imo. deflation is setting in -- in order to counteract it and stay even at least, we need a sustained selling pressure.

i can agree with everything else though sounds like you know how to manage risk. that is important.

--arepo

[dataphile]

http://oi43.tinypic.com/1zmcf14.jpg

hey guys hows it going in this thread

[arepo]

oh how i love shorting the panic....

keep dropping your coins, noob traders!

shouldn't have given them to such weak hands in the first place

[ironstove]

i feel like too many new traders were involved in the move past $130 and they all got spooked.

There was a massive, well orchestrated sale on silk road, sort of like a Black Friday of the sorts if you'd want to compare the magnitude of volume which was in operation for the past 48 hours, it just ended today and hence the sell-offs have already started. Most of the vendors are selling off their btc slowly, others not as slow. You can see this as an ample opportunity to buy cheap btc, or you can see this as the precursor to a long period of lowered activity on the btc market from a major volume source, and lower activity from HFTs.

Is this my reason to think we are headed downward short term? One of many. But that is my reasoning behind the recent drop from 160->140 along with upwards resistance as most of these vendors do not operate with the concern of holding long.

I have no explanation for the <1 min jump from 121->145 other than HFTs operating in tandem with a massive queue of trailing limit orders and panic buyers.

As I stated, there are many of reasons I believe what I believe, but I have not been this sure for a long time, at least as long as since I sold at 180 to avoid the crash at 266, or dumping in at $13 believing it would eventually be higher.

Do I think the $120 resistance will be broken? Not tonight, if ever. I could have easily overestimated the magnitude of correction as I did with the early April crash, but if 120 does break, we are in for a world of pain... and I hope many of you haven't allocated 100% of your portfolio assets entirely in cryptos.

[zeroday]

I'm starting to like these Pig runs.
More newcomers are getting chance to buy for cheap.
If I had more available USD, I would spend it all to buy BTC right at this sweet moment.

[UltimateReaper]

I don't know whether or not I should sleep tonight based upon the current activity at Mt Gox, I still haven't bought back in yet.

[AmazonStuff]

If we continue like this, we will break $100 in a few hours

[arepo]

There was a massive, well orchestrated sale on silk road, sort of like a Black Friday of the sorts if you'd want to compare the magnitude of volume which was in operation for the past 48 hours, it just ended today and hence the sell-offs have already started. Most of the vendors are selling off their btc slowly, others not as slow.

if this is true, and it is not a market correction, we're likely to see prices shoot up very quickly once the selling pressure tapers off.

[arepo]

I don't know whether or not I should sleep tonight based upon the current activity at Mt Gox, I still haven't bought back in yet.

probably should have done that at $120

[UltimateReaper]

I don't know whether or not I should sleep tonight based upon the current activity at Mt Gox, I still haven't bought back in yet.

probably should have done that at $120

Probably but I'm stubborn and really really want to buy an even number...  

Meh. I'll give it one more day if anything. I've learned my lesson though. I'm going straight to an exchange once I do actually buy.

(Edit: I'm probably going to regret this, but I'm 75% in at roughly $127, enough with the greed, May here we come.)

[Ichthyo]

I'm probably going to regret this, but I'm 75% in at roughly $127, enough with the greed, May here we come.

Doesn't sound too bad.
Either we're cooling down roughly at $125 (and then we'll see more in some hours or days), or we're going really lower, and in the latter case I wouldn't go in at $120, rather wait first and see if we make it lower.

[UltimateReaper]

I'm probably going to regret this, but I'm 75% in at roughly $127, enough with the greed, May here we come.

Doesn't sound too bad.
Either we're cooling down roughly at $125 (and then we'll see more in some hours or days), or we're going really lower, and in the latter case I wouldn't go in at $120, rather wait first and see if we make it lower.

Yeah, better to take a small loss than lose everything to greed. If we go below 90$ in some freak accident though I may punch myself in the face. At the same time my real goal is to become a master trader over the next few years, so I wont pout. Ill be patient and stick with it.

[bitleif]

It's like 2011 all over again.

What's wrong with that? You could make a lot of money in 2011. I missed out that time, this time I'm paying attention.

The BTC community is mostly young people with little trading experience, and it shows. Novice traders expect every price move to be a straight line from A to B, and every trend to continue linearly in perpetuity.

Prices NEVER go vertical without crashing. Crashes virtually always rebound. Big sudden moves in any direction are almost always partially retraced, and often temporarily. And markets susceptible to fervor are equally susceptible to panic.

[gizmoh]

It's like 2011 all over again.

What's wrong with that? You could make a lot of money in 2011. I missed out that time, this time I'm paying attention.

The BTC community is mostly young people with little trading experience, and it shows. Novice traders expect every price move to be a straight line from A to B, and every trend to continue linearly in perpetuity.

Prices NEVER go vertical without crashing. Crashes virtually always rebound. Big sudden moves in any direction are almost always partially retraced, and often temporarily. And markets susceptible to fervor are equally susceptible to panic.

Bitcoin losing credibility as a currency/store of value, it will not just go up again (for the medium-long term) without greater adoption, and the masses wont dip for a high risk investment.

[Jaroslaw]

i have already popcorn and waiting for double digits.

[bitleif]

Bitcoin losing credibility as a currency/store of value, it will not just go up again (for the medium-long term) without greater adoption, and the masses wont dip for a high risk investment.

Stop being attached to the credibility outcome. If bitcoin is worth its salt, it will come into its own right when the time is right. This is the same mistake many new businesses make - "we must have mass adoption NOWZ!" - when what's really missing is more infrastructure and value to the customer.

[samson]

i have already popcorn and waiting for double digits.

I'm going with pizza this time.

[StarrManUK]

I don't know whether or not I should sleep tonight based upon the current activity at Mt Gox, I still haven't bought back in yet.

I'm sorry but what are you guys talking about?...it's been stable ~130 for a while.

I need to stop reading this forum, every time I've lost money it's been because I read some BS on here rather than trust my own instincts.

[SAQ]

The caaaaaalm before the stoorm

The question is, which way

[arepo]

The caaaaaalm before the stoorm

The question is, which way

up. see my other posts.

[fitty]

It's like 2011 all over again.

If it crashes down to $50 again (it won't go lower then that, wayyyyy too much money on MtGox and wayyyy too many people believe it's worth far more then $50), lots and lots of people would make a ton of money. So, yeah I hope it does. It will probably be back right here 4 days later.

When it goes from $150 to $50 to $150 again, people make a KILLING. Lots of people want crashes, just so they can have rallies. There's no "correct" value. It's how far people dumping coins can push it down (and sucker in panic sellers). And how far people buying coins can push it up (and bring in people wanting a rally). That has nothing to do with Bitcoin's success, adoption rate, how well things are going. Enjoy it, make money off it, try not to get upset.

[ManBearPig]

It's like 2011 all over again.

Well that's great thanks for that.

You mean we can look ahead to 130x growth in 17 months once we reach the bottom? Yes because that's what happened between Nov 2011 and Apr 2013 WITHOUT all the positives and media coverage we just had.

Count me in.

Also: that thing I did in that hotel on New Years Eve 2011 - I won't be doing THAT again.

If you're trolling, at least be amusing eh?

[wonkytonky]

It's like 2011 all over again.

 There's no "correct" value. It's how far people dumping coins can push it down (and sucker in panic sellers). And how far people buying coins can push it up (and bring in people wanting a rally). That has nothing to do with Bitcoin's success, adoption rate, how well things are going. Enjoy it, make money off it, try not to get upset.

this..

[rebuilder]

It's like 2011 all over again.

Only if we go below $20 or so per coin.

[smoothie]

I wouldnt be surprised if we had a head fake....

Flash to $120 then up to $145+....shake the weak hands out once more haha

[jubalix]

yawn who cares, it was $30 just a few months ago, and your all worried about it going to 100?

300% above where is was.....?

....strong hands....

just don't sell out even if it goes to 0.00001.....buy buy buy

[ironstove]

If the 120 wall can manage to hold along with a breakthrough of 140. At the moment, 120 seems to hold a lot of support, but nobody knows how much of it is real or fake walls of large AONs to boost confidence, as the volume and pvt indicate people are looking to buy expecting the price to go down versus up.

Due to the fact that the alt-coins are so interlocked in performance with one another, we can use them as an indicators on the future price of BTC, but that's unlikely as it is always the other way around. BTC determines the price of the alt-currencies. At the moment, I believe it is a safe bet to hedge against btc using fiat and alt-coins with nmc probably being the least volatile (before fiat ofc) and ltc/ppc having the most upside but strong correlation with btc price.

I am looking forward to where the price will be by Thursday May 2nd. The selling pressure has diminished but seems that buying confidence is also down. Volume has hit an all-time low.

My recommendation is to hold at least 40% of total portfolio as fiat or alt-coin with conservatively placed stop/limit orders, it is extremely risky at this point to hold all assets in BTC as the price can move sharply in any direction. Best of luck

[Zaih]

Yeh yeh yeh. OP you're so smart

[HBBZ]

It's my humble opinion that 2011 is forever gone. In 2011, the price didn't touch the botttom until the end of the year. In 2013, the price touched the bottom in 2 days and then went its way happily without any burden of the past.  . It's day time now, many still live in the dark nights.

[ironstove]

Just wait until the end of May. Corrections do not happen in a couple of days, or even weeks. It happens over months.

[evolve]

+1

[ironstove]

120 wall has been cracked. Next support level will be 100, which will fall soon enough.

Expect the rebound to stop at 120, sell some of your btc and hold fiat or hedge into alt-cryptos, that is my recommendation, or just hold all of your btc and come back in 2 years and see if they are worth either $0 or $1000

[Frozenlock]

You expect the bubble pop to take as long as in 2011?

Hell, any price in 3 months seems to be a wild guess.

[ironstove]

There are wild and educated guesses, my educated guess based on many indicators and studies that I've done predicts the price to be sub 100 by the end of May to Mid-June, very small and slow upwards growth beginning again around August. Alternative theory I'm beginning to craft is the price decline being more far reaching and the recession in price lasting until mid 2014, but not enough info/support to make that my primary guess atm.

Should you sell all of your holdings? No, I still hold a sizable amount of my portfolio 40% in BTC, with 20/20 being hedged in fiat/alt cryptos, as I gather more information with each passing day, the picture becomes more clear and I'm able to adjust this distribution accordingly. Don't listen to anyone on these forums including me, just use the info here as guidelines on areas to follow up on. Most of the TA posted on here is amateurish and 98% of the fundamentals/speculation are based on hype and not real facts (such as predicting Eurozone collapse will send btc to the moon is a bunch of nonsense).

[ironstove]

100 wall broke faster than expected, might see a flash crash down to 70 with a flash rebound to the 110s, overall everything still on schedule.

Price will be lower than it is today come June...

[Ichthyo]

100 wall broke faster than expected, might see a flash crash down to 70 with a flash rebound to the 110s, overall everything still on schedule.

Not really surprising. 100 was never a really relevant stop point recently. We got past 100 surprisingly fast on the move up and same so on the rebound back from 50+

To the contrary, 90 and 120/130 seem to be nailed into our public memory as being way more relevant.

[ironstove]

Seems that the recent flash to 80 was too quick for my taste, my personal take is that we're crossing into oversold territory, might see a rebound to ~110 soon before returning back on the downward trend and slowly heading back.

[awakening]

Seems that the recent flash to 80 was too quick for my taste, my personal take is that we're crossing into oversold territory, might see a rebound to ~110 soon before returning back on the downward trend and slowly heading back.

110 ? No way.

[N12]

Seems that the recent flash to 80 was too quick for my taste, my personal take is that we're crossing into oversold territory, might see a rebound to ~110 soon before returning back on the downward trend and slowly heading back.

110 ? No way.

It's possible, retracements can be quite violent. If it's worth trading it is another question.

[xorglub]

More like high-90s for a 50% retracement of the last selloff. Which seems to be happening now.

[ironstove]

I've revised my target high for the weekend to ~107 based on price movement over the last 12 hours. Have limit sells set a little below that which I hope to see filled

High 90s is a more reasonable target, I'd say 97 is a very safe target and I have placed a few orders around that area, but considering the volatility of the market I would not be surprised to see it break the 100s for a short period of time.

However by end of next week I believe we will be treading the 75 territory.

[xorglub]

So far so good

[ironstove]

Original targets of 110 and 107 both striked out.

High has reached 116 and the day has just started!! very surprising indeed! Nice stuff to wake up to in the morning

My sets of limits I placed between 105-115 were all eaten up, but not so much the 115-125s that I placed, which I am probably going to cancel and place @ different tiers once I do some recalibrating.... Regardless based on this strong momentum and volume, might even see 130 striked by the end of Sunday.

[bitleif]

Seems that the recent flash to 80 was too quick for my taste, my personal take is that we're crossing into oversold territory, might see a rebound to ~110 soon before returning back on the downward trend and slowly heading back.

110 ? No way.

I like how confident you are

[xorglub]

Well, looks like I was wrong. China came and joined the party... goodbye double digits for a while.
For now this rally is all speculative as the real money has not showed up yet. Might get back down to $100 as rocket fuel shipments get delayed over the weekend

[ironstove]

Recent news will have no immediate effect on the overall price movement, if any. I targeted 107 as the strike price for the weekend, which was already hit, but the decline should return back near the end of Sunday or shortly after, as for what happens between then, the price could stagnate or potentially still rally to the 130s considering the strong rally that led prices up to 116, but at this point it is too dangerous to trade considering the small walls in both directions and erratic price movements leading to skewed charts/indicators due to the mtgox lag, at this point there is a thick fog blocking vision.

Double digits are still a strong possibility, in fact, I am still leaning towards my original prediction of striking through the 80s wall by next weekend as no significant information was brought into the picture besides the CCTV/China hype. Overall, the bad news still outweighs the good.

[arepo]

I targeted 107 as the strike price for the weekend, which was already hit, but the decline should return back near the end of Sunday or shortly after, as for what happens between then, the price could stagnate or potentially still rally to the 130s considering the strong rally that led prices up to 116

my analysis has shown similar, if not more bullish projections. by fractal analysis, price could reach at most $130 by this time tomorrow, with a continued rise up to at most $150 on Monday and Tuesday, then a major correction by Wednesday.

[ironstove]

I think it's too early to call a reversal, but if you're right then 150 is certainly possible... We'd probably go even higher, maybe ~180 by June. The price is certainly volatile but I don't know if a move from 80-150 over 72 hours is possible given the price movement post crash.

As I stated earlier, the market data is extremely skewed due to the lag spikes on gox, so conclusions made from data acquired over the last 24 hours should be taken with a grain of salt.

If price strikes above 130 by Monday, then I may have to retract my claim that price would be below $100 come June, as that would be a strong indicator that the bear market is over.

However, many indicators from the data I gathered prior to lag caused me to choose ~110 as target price for the weekend, and revise it down to ~107 and ~75 as the target next week. I have no reason to change that conclusion, but I'm not a psychic, and I've been wrong many times and lost a lot of money from overextending, which is why nowadays I'm paranoid enough to diversify everything which is ironic.

Data over the next 24 hours should help me cement or revise my conclusions. We all come up with different ideas, and that's fine as long as we all make money in the end.

[Beta-coiner1]

I targeted 107 as the strike price for the weekend, which was already hit, but the decline should return back near the end of Sunday or shortly after, as for what happens between then, the price could stagnate or potentially still rally to the 130s considering the strong rally that led prices up to 116

my analysis has shown similar, if not more bullish projections. by fractal analysis, price could reach at most $130 by this time tomorrow, with a continued rise up to at most $150 on Monday and Tuesday, then a major correction by Wednesday.

........or the price correction could come tomorrow after going up over the weekend.

[arepo]

If price strikes above 130 by Monday, then I may have to retract my claim that price would be below $100 come June, as that would be a strong indicator that the bear market is over.

if the price strikes X in one day, then your midterm calculations get changed? check your scales, there... we're still in a period of high-volatility consolidation since the crash. this price oscillation isn't really significant.  we won't know bull/bear midterm until it breaks out of this consolidation decisively in 2-4 weeks.

[ironstove]

@arepo No, it's not that simple for me, the changes that would become resultant in other indicators and charts based on that strong of a price movement is what would cause me to change my analysis as I don't believe the market has that kind of firepower remaining in it. After working out the numbers for it, the main point being that we just don't have that kind of volume right now in the market to sustain that high of a movement, which might change soon enough.

Price has stabilized, volume has continued decreasing, and likelyhood of a breakout within the next 24 hours is very high. Buy walls are virtually equal (~40k) between 95 and 125 with the price currently dead in between @ 112.

I believe infllux of good news has done well to negate the selling pressure, but the buzz has started to fade and the indicators have not changed, still pointing the arrow down.

I've decided to rename this thread as the original discussion of the topic has long since passed.