the real tendline proves bitcoin is overvalued

[True___Blue]

A graph I drew a few days ago, take whatever you want from it.



Open image in new tab to get full size

This is the trend line I've been going off of. It fits quiet well with the last month or so.

[mmortal03]

[Tirapon]

Excellent analysis 

[afbitcoins]

Maybe you can answer a simple question, what are you trending? I mean, what is BTC? Currency, Commodity, Stock, disruptive technology, protocol, etc.

TA is great, we all use it, but to overly depend on it with something that we can't easily define, is cheapening what it is that is BTC. What if some really big news comes out? e.g., Pay Pal becomes funding mechanism for BTC. What do you think will happen to the "price" of BTC?

TA has been said to basically describe human behavior (e.g. support lines). Now, since there are so many variables with BTC (see that short list above), again, it is dangerous to try to pigeon hole what BTC is.

Be very very careful over emphasizing TA and yet know when to use it.

From the perspective of the chart it is quite simple, the trend is the price of a bitcoin in US dollars as traded on MT Gox exchange. Bitcoin is not currency or commodity, it is money, like gold and silver. Unlike currencies it will also function as a store of value.

I'm not going to defend TA yet again, if you don't like it, then perhaps you shouldn't bother with the speculation forum.

I said "TA is great, we all use it, ..." so I'm not smacking it down and I USE IT. I think my point was clear. We don't know what BTC is, not even the government will define it for us. But you know. Maybe you should not be so touchy about a question, not even a criticism...  I was just bringing up the Black Swan nature of BTC and not asking you to defend TA, just merely open up a bit regarding the possibilities.

I don't really follow why you want the govt to define bitcoins ! The less the govt has to do with it the better. But like I said, for my purposes I mainly focus on the monetary aspects of it which for speculating on price is all I feel the need to consider.

Sorry if my reply seemed touchy not your fault.

Thx as I wasn't trying to give you a hard time.

Regarding the government defining BTC: If they define what we are, then we can start laying the groundwork and developing a plan (expansion, legal, tax, etc.) for going forward. I do see your point though and I agree the less government the better. But the danger is that they leave things gray and pick and attack as they choose. Now, maybe this doesn't hold up in a court of law (but who knows since corruption runs deep) but it could slow us down due to raising the fear level. That said, it is beautiful how even with the uncertainty of the DHS thing, the price quickly rebounded.

Get some popcorn and enjoy the show... (Really, no matter what happens - though I think we are mostly ok - this is one hell of a ride. It is not everyday (or decade or century) that something like this comes along and challenges the established "norms"/corruption  )

I predict various govts of the world will attempt to block bitcoins in a selection of inept ways. Everything the govt tries to do usually has the opposite effect and in this case will probably just make bitcoins stronger and more resilient. Part of their strategy might be through defining various dubious legal definitions which won't make a difference.

I'm more worried about what bankers will attempt. In my view various internet debt based schemes will be pushed onto us and they will keep trying and trying different variations until they succeed. Ripples being the best example at this time. They will try and undermine or control bitcoins via deceipt and manipulation replacing bitcoins with IOU's for bitcoins and putting hidden quantities of bitcoins locked into gateways.     

I held the same belief, regarding governments attacking BTC, but I'm recently changed my stance. I don't think governments can react any where quick enough to stop BTC. It has been around for 4 years and just now does the DHS make a very very minor move, which doesn't even look like it was against BTC. Just simply Gox missed something.

Banks - I don't think BTC is the threat we think it is to banks, not anytime soon. Banks make their money from fraction reserver lending, and BTC, in its current carnation is not at all a threat to that. Maybe that develops, but it is no where near touching the banks pockets. Rather, I see banks using it to improve the speed of international transactions and such.

BTC is a threat to credit card companies and companies like Western Union (the latter of which is doing a good job failing on its own and the former seems to be getting on consumers nerves with their near monopolistic control on interest rates.) But even the credit card companies make their money on loans, so again, I don't see BTC effecting them anytime soon, in that regard.

Now, as BTC evolves I do see things growing from it which naturally takes out unfair monetary business practices. We are so early in the game. What happens when BTC shows that a deflationary currency is the way to go? That is a threat to the banks! But, by the time it shows it's head, the writing is on the wall. Really, BTC is a gift from the Universe/Nature, of which we are a part. We were just the corrective mechanism allowed to plant it. 

The european central bank has admitted bitcoin is a threat to banking
http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/virtualcurrencyschemes201210en.pdf

[Its About Sharing]

Afbitcoins - You linked a 55 page doc  , (dated Oct 2012).
I don't have time right now to read the doc (thanks for linking it, hard to believe I see no mention of that doc anywhere that I've seen.)

I see 3 mentions of the word threat, 2 of which say anything, as follows:

p.33

It is important to stress that this chapter is not intended to be a fully-fledged analysis; rather it
is a first attempt at providing a basis for discussion on this issue. Largely, this is a result of the
uncertainty surrounding virtual currency schemes and the lack of reliable information and data.
From the analysis of the existing information it is already possible to draw an initial conclusion:
it is very complicated to obtain a clear overview ofthe situation regarding virtual currency schemes
at this stage. Almost all of the information that can be found is on the internet, written in blogs
or on web pages where personal bias cannot be excluded (see, for instance, the references listed
in the Annex). With the exception of a few articles from respectable media sources or economics
journals, it is almost impossible to find any comprehensive papers on this issue, since no
international organisations have published statements. A similar problem exists with regard to the
quantitative information and statistics that would be needed in order to assess the speed at which
these virtual currency schemes are growing and the point at which they could become a real threat.
The quantitative information that is available is not extensive and is usually provided by the
respective scheme owner..

p. 37

Finally, it isimportant to safeguard a currency’srole as a unit of account, associety reaps benefits
froma well-defined and stablemonetary unitforits economic transactions, irrespective ofthe issuer
or the format in which money is issued. Virtual currency schemes could lead to the emergence
of multiple units of account in the real economy. Virtual currency scheme owners could then be
tempted to issue excessive amountsin order to profit from the placement of these funds. A change
in views about the creditworthiness of these issuers (and the associated virtual exchange rate
variability) would threaten to undermine the role of money in providing a single unit of account as
a common financial denominator for the whole economy

Interesting and great news (This is what BTC is about...)

edit - Got to love the name of the pdf - "Virtual Currency Schemes"   

[ManBearPig]

Trend analysis in Microsoft Word?

Where the hell is your line anchored on the left?

And have you heard of log scale?

Thanks for a good laugh!

[naphto]

this

[afbitcoins]

Afbitcoins - You linked a 55 page doc  , (dated Oct 2012).
I don't have time right now to read the doc (thanks for linking it, hard to believe I see no mention of that doc anywhere that I've seen.)

I see 3 mentions of the word threat, 2 of which say anything, as follows:

p.33

It is important to stress that this chapter is not intended to be a fully-fledged analysis; rather it
is a first attempt at providing a basis for discussion on this issue. Largely, this is a result of the
uncertainty surrounding virtual currency schemes and the lack of reliable information and data.
From the analysis of the existing information it is already possible to draw an initial conclusion:
it is very complicated to obtain a clear overview ofthe situation regarding virtual currency schemes
at this stage. Almost all of the information that can be found is on the internet, written in blogs
or on web pages where personal bias cannot be excluded (see, for instance, the references listed
in the Annex). With the exception of a few articles from respectable media sources or economics
journals, it is almost impossible to find any comprehensive papers on this issue, since no
international organisations have published statements. A similar problem exists with regard to the
quantitative information and statistics that would be needed in order to assess the speed at which
these virtual currency schemes are growing and the point at which they could become a real threat.
The quantitative information that is available is not extensive and is usually provided by the
respective scheme owner..

p. 37

Finally, it isimportant to safeguard a currency’srole as a unit of account, associety reaps benefits
froma well-defined and stablemonetary unitforits economic transactions, irrespective ofthe issuer
or the format in which money is issued. Virtual currency schemes could lead to the emergence
of multiple units of account in the real economy. Virtual currency scheme owners could then be
tempted to issue excessive amountsin order to profit from the placement of these funds. A change
in views about the creditworthiness of these issuers (and the associated virtual exchange rate
variability) would threaten to undermine the role of money in providing a single unit of account as
a common financial denominator for the whole economy

Interesting and great news (This is what BTC is about...)

edit - Got to love the name of the pdf - "Virtual Currency Schemes"   

Yes should have said they see it as a 'potential' threat. It is a long document, quite entertaining in some ways, they refer to fiat money as real money. And that only if central banks issue it is it proper money etc. obviously i'm paraphrasing.

[Its About Sharing]

Yes should have said they see it as a 'potential' threat. It is a long document, quite entertaining in some ways, they refer to fiat money as real money. And that only if central banks issue it is it proper money etc. obviously i'm paraphrasing.

Well, we can't fool ourselves into thinking they are unaware of it or that they don't see it as a threat (and won't eventually come after it when other indirect methods fail - and they will). That would be silly. Banking is the center of the western world and all the wars that go with it. Ideally as money leaves that system and goes into systems that are more compassionate, we will see change. It will take time, though their system of banking as currently constructed is in danger of popping. There only hope is to have people believe the upward stock market and growing money supply and zero % interest rates are a good thing. That seems to be changing in many peoples minds. I'd say they are losing the propaganda war. Between now and next war that system can pop and I hope enough people high up in the military don't go along with another BS war.

So, as that system goes it might really be too late to act on the BTC one. After all, it is going to look terrible going after a system that is holding value, people based, etc. Luckily there isn't a "new world order" or one world government to make things easier for these criminals. We have the Universe on our side. 

Regarding the point of this thread, BTC is too much to just analyze with a trendline. Though I favor watching it with a logarithmic one...

IAS

[afbitcoins]

Well, we can't fool ourselves into thinking they are unaware of it or that they don't see it as a threat (and won't eventually come after it when other indirect methods fail - and they will). That would be silly. Banking is the center of the western world and all the wars that go with it. Ideally as money leaves that system and goes into systems that are more compassionate, we will see change. It will take time, though their system of banking as currently constructed is in danger of popping. There only hope is to have people believe the upward stock market and growing money supply and zero % interest rates are a good thing. That seems to be changing in many peoples minds. I'd say they are losing the propaganda war. Between now and next war that system can pop and I hope enough people high up in the military don't go along with another BS war.

So, as that system goes it might really be too late to act on the BTC one. After all, it is going to look terrible going after a system that is holding value, people based, etc. Luckily there isn't a "new world order" or one world government to make things easier for these criminals. We have the Universe on our side.  

Regarding the point of this thread, BTC is too much to just analyze with a trendline. Though I favor watching it with a logarithmic one...

IAS

I like your thinking, there still seems to be lots of signs that the push for global government is still on track though and theres still a mass of braindead sheeple happily going along with it and totally unaware they are being robbed blind by the system. (to fund wars etc as you say). Truth is a powerful force though and the internet is shining a lot of truth and light on us.

[Its About Sharing]

Well, we can't fool ourselves into thinking they are unaware of it or that they don't see it as a threat (and won't eventually come after it when other indirect methods fail - and they will). That would be silly. Banking is the center of the western world and all the wars that go with it. Ideally as money leaves that system and goes into systems that are more compassionate, we will see change. It will take time, though their system of banking as currently constructed is in danger of popping. There only hope is to have people believe the upward stock market and growing money supply and zero % interest rates are a good thing. That seems to be changing in many peoples minds. I'd say they are losing the propaganda war. Between now and next war that system can pop and I hope enough people high up in the military don't go along with another BS war.

So, as that system goes it might really be too late to act on the BTC one. After all, it is going to look terrible going after a system that is holding value, people based, etc. Luckily there isn't a "new world order" or one world government to make things easier for these criminals. We have the Universe on our side.  

Regarding the point of this thread, BTC is too much to just analyze with a trendline. Though I favor watching it with a logarithmic one...

IAS

I like your thinking, there still seems to be lots of signs that the push for global government is still on track though and theres still a mass of braindead sheeple happily going along with it and totally unaware they are being robbed blind by the system. (to fund wars etc as you say). Truth is a powerful force though and the internet is shining a lot of truth and light on us.

I really get the feeling (and from listening to a variety of people with some "inside" information - podcasts and the like - if you believe them.) that there are people high up that are not at all going along with TPTB. There really is no one in charge but there are some people (or should I say corporations) that can exert GREAT might. The thing is, China, Russia and other countries have something to say about it. For sure there are proxy wars going on as well.

There certainly is still a push for Global Government, no doubt. And looking at their control slowly slipping really does make me think a false flag (yes, another one) is in the works. But, they rarely go off perfectly and the longer they wait, one might argue, the more we see (due to better technology, rising consciousness, etc.)

No fear and going forward. Fear has been a controlling mechanism for too long. And you can just see how people are learning to let it go, slowly, but it is happening.

If you find something you believe in, even if it is still a "part" of the system (a bit like Bitcoin, in a regulated sense anyway), it doesn't matter. You put your heart and soul into it and don't look back.

We are all a part of this revolution, be it of the mind, the BTC, or whatever...

[afbitcoins]

Well, we can't fool ourselves into thinking they are unaware of it or that they don't see it as a threat (and won't eventually come after it when other indirect methods fail - and they will). That would be silly. Banking is the center of the western world and all the wars that go with it. Ideally as money leaves that system and goes into systems that are more compassionate, we will see change. It will take time, though their system of banking as currently constructed is in danger of popping. There only hope is to have people believe the upward stock market and growing money supply and zero % interest rates are a good thing. That seems to be changing in many peoples minds. I'd say they are losing the propaganda war. Between now and next war that system can pop and I hope enough people high up in the military don't go along with another BS war.

So, as that system goes it might really be too late to act on the BTC one. After all, it is going to look terrible going after a system that is holding value, people based, etc. Luckily there isn't a "new world order" or one world government to make things easier for these criminals. We have the Universe on our side.  

Regarding the point of this thread, BTC is too much to just analyze with a trendline. Though I favor watching it with a logarithmic one...

IAS

I like your thinking, there still seems to be lots of signs that the push for global government is still on track though and theres still a mass of braindead sheeple happily going along with it and totally unaware they are being robbed blind by the system. (to fund wars etc as you say). Truth is a powerful force though and the internet is shining a lot of truth and light on us.

I really get the feeling (and from listening to a variety of people with some "inside" information - podcasts and the like - if you believe them.) that there are people high up that are not at all going along with TPTB. There really is no one in charge but there are some people (or should I say corporations) that can exert GREAT might. The thing is, China, Russia and other countries have something to say about it. For sure there are proxy wars going on as well.

There certainly is still a push for Global Government, no doubt. And looking at their control slowly slipping really does make me think a false flag (yes, another one) is in the works. But, they rarely go off perfectly and the longer they wait, one might argue, the more we see (due to better technology, rising consciousness, etc.)

No fear and going forward. Fear has been a controlling mechanism for too long. And you can just see how people are learning to let it go, slowly, but it is happening.

If you find something you believe in, even if it is still a "part" of the system (a bit like Bitcoin, in a regulated sense anyway), it doesn't matter. You put your heart and soul into it and don't look back.

We are all a part of this revolution, be it of the mind, the BTC, or whatever...

Yes I think there was a lot more unity among TPTB not so long ago than there appears now. Cracks beginning to form. The tighter they try and enclose us in their fist the more we slip through their fingers like sand. A false flag does seem possible. Personally I was half expecting a dirty bomb in London or something like that during the olympics, thankfully it never materialised. Maybe they are aware its harder and harder to get away with it in the internet age.

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

What's happening is the environment surrounding society is changing thanks to the Internet and other technologies. With a different mix of nutrients, different bacteria will grow in a petri dish. With different technological factors like ubiquitous cameras, broadcasting, and all news and trends and old assumptions being fine-tooth-combed in totally free, anonymous debate, the nature of the structures that survive in society will inevitably change as well.

See this for an elaboration of this argument: http://mises.org/Community/forums/t/8889.aspx

The trend is massively toward decentralization, and Bitcoin is the coup de grâce, the tidal wave that has yet to hit shore. Moreover, each revolution enables the next, bigger revolution to happen even faster: agricultural revolution --> industrial revolution --> information revolution (the Internet) --> financial revolution (Bitcoin, built on top of the Internet) --> power stucture revolution (new governance-related stuff built on top of Bitcoin (smart contracts, trustless escrow, insurance, BMOT, private online arbitration, fully anonymous businesses like SR, etc.)).

Though mathematically it's just exponential growth, the pace of changes in the coming years (months??*) will feel like a singularity as the speed of change starts to cross certain human thresholds.


*That it might happen this soon is part of the whole point that the change is going to start happening at a pace that will perpetually surprise almost everyone. Get used to anticipating being surprised.

[afbitcoins]

Nice link, will be delving into that more later on..