May 15 ETF Review Already Priced In?

[Junko]

So last month the SEC reject the Winklevoss Twins' ETF bid.

"Based on the record before it, the Commission believes that the significant markets for bitcoin are unregulated," the SEC said in a statement. "The commission notes that bitcoin is still in the relatively early stages of its development and that, over time, regulated bitcoin-related markets of significant size may develop."

Nothing has changed in the way of bitcoin regulation since then, so based on that we can expect the decision to deny will be upheld. And yet the price of bitcoin is on the rise (currently). Surely the rising price is not due to optimism that the original decision to deny will be reversed and that the ETF will be approved.

Bitcoin price recovered so quickly and with a vengeance after last month's ETF rejection. What should we expect, if anything, after the May 15th review?

[gentlemand]

I will think considerably less of this market if it isn't. It's about the most guaranteed no imaginable, but perhaps there are enough silly sausages out there who might fall for it. Their loss.

[ASHLIUSZ]

After may too I expect the same growth movement with bitcoin unlike the etf approval or rejection. Because the growth that's been experienced right now is just the unadulterated one. If we are experiencing the same when we get etf approved then we can think of it. Now even without the approval things are moving in the right track, so the price in haven't occurred of etf review by this month.

[panju1]

So last month the SEC reject the Winklevoss Twins' ETF bid.

"Based on the record before it, the Commission believes that the significant markets for bitcoin are unregulated," the SEC said in a statement. "The commission notes that bitcoin is still in the relatively early stages of its development and that, over time, regulated bitcoin-related markets of significant size may develop."

Nothing has changed in the way of bitcoin regulation since then, so based on that we can expect the decision to deny will be upheld. And yet the price of bitcoin is on the rise (currently). Surely the rising price is not due to optimism that the original decision to deny will be reversed and that the ETF will be approved.

Bitcoin price recovered so quickly and with a vengeance after last month's ETF rejection. What should we expect, if anything, after the May 15th review?

Definitely not. There is absolutely no chance of the ETF being approved, and the market is not giving it any importance.
We should stop trying to find reasons for every rise and every fall.

[rajasumi3]

May be  we have to wait for that coming date and wait and see what happens in the near end.If the SEC approves it ,it will happen that the price of bitcoins would be more than it is now,well rejection would make the price fall down to a drastic level,neverthless the price of bitcoins would continue to grow.

[bohr]

May be  we have to wait for that coming date and wait and see what happens in the near end.If the SEC approves it ,it will happen that the price of bitcoins would be more than it is now,well rejection would make the price fall down to a drastic level,neverthless the price of bitcoins would continue to grow.

I don’t think we are going to see a drastic reduction in price just because of the rejection since I think everyone is expecting that, I don’t think any one in the forum that is realistic about it thinks that is getting approved.

[LuanX3]

Right now, looking at the prices, I think the new ETF speculation price increase has been factored it. I don't see any other factor that could have influenced bitcoin price increase in the past weeks it has been increasing. So maybe a fews days before the decision we'll see another dip in the prices.

[pooya87]

that's what scares me! nothing has change and yet price is rising the same way it was the first time ETF hype started and for no good reason. and because nothing has changed, the SEC decision shouldn't have been changed either so the possibility of it getting denied is high. and since price is rising so crazy there will be a crazy dip in case of denial!

and it all postpones reaching $2000, nothing else.

[jubalix]

why would the sec change its decision?

I would BTC rather force its way through buying value

[djuvantebit]

ETFs may have a chance now that SEC are defining what is a security and not in the cryptocurrency ICO space

[gentlemand]

ETFs may have a chance now that SEC are defining what is a security and not in the cryptocurrency ICO space

Their prime issue was their inability to police the market, either down to so much of it being abroad or with exchanges having no interest in supplying the info they need to do their job.

They can't approve something if they're completely incapable of doing what they were created to do. Their yes is conditional on that.  

I can't see that much has changed in that aspect.

[Samarkand]

ETFs may have a chance now that SEC are defining what is a security and not in the cryptocurrency ICO space

ETFs may have a real chance, if the offshore exchanges aren´t responsible for a huge part of
BTC trading volume anymore. With btc-e gone, Bitfinex in trouble (if you believe the rumours about
Tether), things are looking promising for a future Bitcoin ETF.

Besides there is this other ETF, not by the Winklevoss twins, who is taking a different approach and
therefore maybe has a better chance for approval.

https://www.btc-echo.de/ein-neuer-bitcoi-etf-geht-an-den-start/