$1800 today is where #2 lies. Indicators are strong for a new bubble to begin. Technically it looks its heading there, and the alt market is severely inflated too. A dump of bubbled alts could send BTC soaring beyond $1800, or good news regarding BTC scaling could too... And if the ETF somehow passes this time around, we're definitely going into a new bubble.
Altcoin market is crazy right now, basically every major coin is being pumped. That never happened before. It was alwys either BTC or altcoins, never both.
There is a possibility of reverse trend at some point: traders will sell BTC to purchase LTC or other altcoin because overwhelming good altcoin news.
ETF will be declined over and over again, nothing will change and only miracle will cause BTC to update its protocol.