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June 01, 2017, 12:39:31 PM
 #41

This surge in the bitcoin market occurs constantly. I am sure that this is the work of whales which invest big money in speculation. If bitcoin will be the "blood" of the new economy on the Internet bubble will not burst for a long time. Now we are only at the beginning.
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June 01, 2017, 12:43:28 PM
 #42

When looking at historic valuations it's definitely correct that stocks, bonds and real estate are all significantly overpriced. The direct cause for these bubbles are the monetary policies of the central banks, which collectively engage in excessive fiat creation.

The biggest bubble is in the bond market for sure. Of the traditional assets only precious metals and some other commodities hold an attractive valuation.

the ripple is going to grow really huge in the near future. To be honest the fact that banks are going to invest in ripple is going to grow the price up easily. Plus there will be a coin lock up which will make the price pump a lot as well. I think the only question is when it is going to reach one dollar per ripple price, but I can almost assure that sooner or later it is going to happen. And everything bubble is good, it means that people can make money.

This is really hilariously funny BS! Cheesy Ripple is not a decentralized cryptocurrency. It's a corporation coin - just another Paypal. No need for further analysis. But dumb people are free to "invest" in it...
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June 01, 2017, 01:43:16 PM
 #43

Not everything is bubble, indeed!
Not everytime inflated balloon burst, sometimes it just inflated or deflated. Suppose the price of commodity rose by 20-30% in a day due to sudden surge in demand and fell by 10-20% the next very day due to correction. Does that mean price of that could not cross the highest again and burst? Exactly not, commodity can rise again if there is potential to rise again in future.


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June 01, 2017, 02:17:19 PM
 #44

Not everything is bubble, indeed!
Not everytime inflated balloon burst, sometimes it just inflated or deflated. Suppose the price of commodity rose by 20-30% in a day due to sudden surge in demand and fell by 10-20% the next very day due to correction. Does that mean price of that could not cross the highest again and burst? Exactly not, commodity can rise again if there is potential to rise again in future.

yes i am agree that not all news is bubble, some of them is right and needs our attention to followed. but the rest if we think that the news or something is not right, then we don't have to following. its our job to determine what is real and what is not and we need to make filter for our self so we don't eat the news right away.

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June 02, 2017, 02:30:35 AM
 #45

The Everything Bubble: Stocks, Real Estate & Bond Implosion - Mike Maloney

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0Oz2R0u4VM

Is everything overpriced? Are we going to crash soon? When? Discussion.

It sounds stupid but everything can't be overpriced because if everything is overpriced then nothing is. Overpriced means that the price of something is higher than its actual value, and this is the defining characteristic of bubbles. However, really ultimately the "value" of anything comes down to how much people are willing to pay for it. It gets almost philosophical, or at least theoretical. All calculations of value are relative, and ultimately boil down to how much people are willing to pay for something. You can say that company A is overpriced at a p/s ratio of 6 because other similar companies have a p/s ratio of 5, but who is to say that 5 or 6 is the proper "value"? Which p/s ratio is "correct"? If a year later those companies all have a p/s ratio of 7, then none of them can really be said to be overpriced because they are all in line with each other, even though a p/s ratio of 7 would have been overpriced the previous year.

If everything is overpriced, nothing is - as long as everything is equally overpriced.

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June 02, 2017, 03:11:00 AM
 #46

The Everything Bubble: Stocks, Real Estate & Bond Implosion - Mike Maloney

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0Oz2R0u4VM

Is everything overpriced? Are we going to crash soon? When? Discussion.

I think it is not overpriced, it's just a good stuffs making a increase in price, because that is how the businesses works. I think sometimes the price of something rise up or pump because of the demand and they need it that time that is why the price also increase, then after that time, the demand goes down, the same as the price.
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June 02, 2017, 10:30:32 AM
 #47

The Everything Bubble: Stocks, Real Estate & Bond Implosion - Mike Maloney

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0Oz2R0u4VM

Is everything overpriced? Are we going to crash soon? When? Discussion.

It sounds stupid but everything can't be overpriced because if everything is overpriced then nothing is. Overpriced means that the price of something is higher than its actual value, and this is the defining characteristic of bubbles. However, really ultimately the "value" of anything comes down to how much people are willing to pay for it. It gets almost philosophical, or at least theoretical. All calculations of value are relative, and ultimately boil down to how much people are willing to pay for something

I basically agree that the notion of overpriced loses its relevance if everything is overpriced. But as you yourself say, it all comes down or amounts to how much people are willing to pay for something, so there cannot be a reason the very existence of such notion in the first place. But since it, nevertheless, exists there should necessarily be a reason for its existence, right? As to me, overpriced relates to prices above the ones which would be there it the buying (selling) decisions were made via rational reasoning given the available info

That is, without being affected by market sentiment, hype, or hysteria
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June 06, 2017, 10:19:19 AM
 #48

Very interesting:

The World’s $100 Trillion Question: Why Is Inflation So Low?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-05/so-much-for-xiflation-china-slowdown-derails-inflation-calls

Quote
Central bankers and investors are grappling with a $100 trillion question: why consumer price inflation remains so low in most parts of the world even as economic growth quickens.

Compounding the riddle, question marks are now emerging over the one part of the global inflation picture that had been moving higher -- producer prices. That’s because two engines of that turnaround -- China’s resurgent factories and prospects for tax-cut fueled stimulus under President Donald Trump -- are showing signs of fading.

Which way the inflation mystery unravels is crucial for the global monetary policy outlook and the world’s $100 trillion bond market. And as with any puzzle, there are rival camps out there in the eco-sphere, with Michael Shaoul, chief executive officer at Marketfield Asset Management in New York, among the PPI-reflation believers.

“This remains an obviously reflationary period for the global economy, with the broadest rise in input cost seen since the global V-shaped recovery hit the skids in 2011,” Shaoul wrote in a recent email. He charts producer prices in China, the U.S., Germany and South Korea -- which make up more than 50 percent of traded goods -- to show the trend.
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June 06, 2017, 10:37:15 AM
 #49

The Everything Bubble: Stocks, Real Estate & Bond Implosion - Mike Maloney

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0Oz2R0u4VM

Is everything overpriced? Are we going to crash soon? When? Discussion.

It sounds stupid but everything can't be overpriced because if everything is overpriced then nothing is. Overpriced means that the price of something is higher than its actual value, and this is the defining characteristic of bubbles. However, really ultimately the "value" of anything comes down to how much people are willing to pay for it. It gets almost philosophical, or at least theoretical. All calculations of value are relative, and ultimately boil down to how much people are willing to pay for something

I basically agree that the notion of overpriced loses its relevance if everything is overpriced. But as you yourself say, it all comes down or amounts to how much people are willing to pay for something, so there cannot be a reason the very existence of such notion in the first place. But since it, nevertheless, exists there should necessarily be a reason for its existence, right? As to me, overpriced relates to prices above the ones which would be there it the buying (selling) decisions were made via rational reasoning given the available info

That is, without being affected by market sentiment, hype, or hysteria

Yeah but what is a rational price for, for example, a bank stock? If they are all pretty close to having a price/sales ratio of 2 then would that be over or under priced? What if they were all 3, or 4? We can use fundamental data about an asset to determine its value, but only to the extent of determining value compared to other similar assets. Ultimately it all comes down to how much people are willing to pay. What makes one p/s ratio more rational than another?

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June 06, 2017, 01:56:15 PM
 #50

As long as the fundamentals are strong, the bubble will not be a problem, many countries with rapid economic growth, the state will realize if there is a problem and will make the right regulation, intelligent countries can certainly take the wisdom of the bubble crisis in some countries, Such as US
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June 06, 2017, 02:08:44 PM
 #51

The Everything Bubble: Stocks, Real Estate & Bond Implosion - Mike Maloney

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0Oz2R0u4VM

Is everything overpriced? Are we going to crash soon? When? Discussion.

I think it is not overpriced, it's just a good stuffs making a increase in price, because that is how the businesses works. I think sometimes the price of something rise up or pump because of the demand and they need it that time that is why the price also increase, then after that time, the demand goes down, the same as the price.
You're right - price and demand are linked, but there's many other factors involved into making the value of a good. Although, as long as the demand rises and the offer stays the same, price will inevitably go up
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June 06, 2017, 03:03:36 PM
 #52

The Everything Bubble: Stocks, Real Estate & Bond Implosion - Mike Maloney

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0Oz2R0u4VM

Is everything overpriced? Are we going to crash soon? When? Discussion.

It sounds stupid but everything can't be overpriced because if everything is overpriced then nothing is. Overpriced means that the price of something is higher than its actual value, and this is the defining characteristic of bubbles. However, really ultimately the "value" of anything comes down to how much people are willing to pay for it. It gets almost philosophical, or at least theoretical. All calculations of value are relative, and ultimately boil down to how much people are willing to pay for something

I basically agree that the notion of overpriced loses its relevance if everything is overpriced. But as you yourself say, it all comes down or amounts to how much people are willing to pay for something, so there cannot be a reason the very existence of such notion in the first place. But since it, nevertheless, exists there should necessarily be a reason for its existence, right? As to me, overpriced relates to prices above the ones which would be there it the buying (selling) decisions were made via rational reasoning given the available info

That is, without being affected by market sentiment, hype, or hysteria

Yeah but what is a rational price for, for example, a bank stock? If they are all pretty close to having a price/sales ratio of 2 then would that be over or under priced? What if they were all 3, or 4? We can use fundamental data about an asset to determine its value, but only to the extent of determining value compared to other similar assets. Ultimately it all comes down to how much people are willing to pay. What makes one p/s ratio more rational than another?

There can be quite a few factors at play

They may not be easily quantifiable but this doesn't in the least mean that they are not real or inconsequential. For example, if a company has been there for ages (like IBM) and has been showing consistent profits year after year, we could well expect its PS ratio or any such metric higher than an average value across the markets. In this way, a company with a higher PS can be considered as undervalued while another company with a lower PS as overvalued. Indeed, in real life it all comes down to how much people are willing to pay, but people are not rational on the whole and susceptible to hype and unfounded optimism as well as pessimism. That's why there is some substance behind such claims (i.e. something being undervalued or overvalued)
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June 06, 2017, 03:21:34 PM
 #53

The Everything Bubble: Stocks, Real Estate & Bond Implosion - Mike Maloney

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0Oz2R0u4VM

Is everything overpriced? Are we going to crash soon? When? Discussion.

It sounds stupid but everything can't be overpriced because if everything is overpriced then nothing is. Overpriced means that the price of something is higher than its actual value, and this is the defining characteristic of bubbles. However, really ultimately the "value" of anything comes down to how much people are willing to pay for it. It gets almost philosophical, or at least theoretical. All calculations of value are relative, and ultimately boil down to how much people are willing to pay for something

I basically agree that the notion of overpriced loses its relevance if everything is overpriced. But as you yourself say, it all comes down or amounts to how much people are willing to pay for something, so there cannot be a reason the very existence of such notion in the first place. But since it, nevertheless, exists there should necessarily be a reason for its existence, right? As to me, overpriced relates to prices above the ones which would be there it the buying (selling) decisions were made via rational reasoning given the available info

That is, without being affected by market sentiment, hype, or hysteria

Yeah but what is a rational price for, for example, a bank stock? If they are all pretty close to having a price/sales ratio of 2 then would that be over or under priced? What if they were all 3, or 4? We can use fundamental data about an asset to determine its value, but only to the extent of determining value compared to other similar assets. Ultimately it all comes down to how much people are willing to pay. What makes one p/s ratio more rational than another?

There can be quite a few factors at play

They may not be easily quantifiable but this doesn't in the least mean that they are not real or inconsequential. For example, if a company has been there for ages (like IBM) and has been showing consistent profits year after year, we could well expect its PS ratio or any such metric higher than an average value across the markets. In this way, a company with a higher PS can be considered as undervalued while another company with a lower PS as overvalued. Indeed, in real life it all comes down to how much people are willing to pay, but people are not rational on the whole and susceptible to hype and unfounded optimism as well as pessimism. That's why there is some substance behind such claims (i.e. something being undervalued or overvalued)

What you are saying in your IBM example is true, but once again it is relative. You are saying it is over or under valued compared to the market. But what should the average value of the market be? This is where it just comes down to how much people are willing to pay. You can say an asset is overvalued compared to other similar ones, but ultimately the calculation of value is based on how much people are willing to pay, just indirectly. It is directly based on an asset's fundamentals compared to similar assets, but ultimately there is no solid quantifiable data to say that asset A should be worth x dollars without just comparing it to other assets whose value is determined the same way.

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June 06, 2017, 03:33:51 PM
 #54

As long as the fundamentals are strong, the bubble will not be a problem, many countries with rapid economic growth, the state will realize if there is a problem and will make the right regulation, intelligent countries can certainly take the wisdom of the bubble crisis in some countries, Such as US
Are you implying that countries like US are intelligent enough to avoid these sort of economic blunders and if that is what you are trying to tell ,i should ask one thing,what caused the global meltdown ,if you are not aware of it,it caused the entire world in a bubble like the great depression because of the fundamental economic blunders made by the US ,so when it comes to the alt coin market you really cannot predict exactly what is going to happen when everyone moves their assets to fiat ,if that happens there will be a collapse,other than that i do not see that happening.
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June 06, 2017, 04:34:21 PM
Last edit: June 06, 2017, 05:03:53 PM by deisik
 #55

The Everything Bubble: Stocks, Real Estate & Bond Implosion - Mike Maloney

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0Oz2R0u4VM

Is everything overpriced? Are we going to crash soon? When? Discussion.

It sounds stupid but everything can't be overpriced because if everything is overpriced then nothing is. Overpriced means that the price of something is higher than its actual value, and this is the defining characteristic of bubbles. However, really ultimately the "value" of anything comes down to how much people are willing to pay for it. It gets almost philosophical, or at least theoretical. All calculations of value are relative, and ultimately boil down to how much people are willing to pay for something

I basically agree that the notion of overpriced loses its relevance if everything is overpriced. But as you yourself say, it all comes down or amounts to how much people are willing to pay for something, so there cannot be a reason the very existence of such notion in the first place. But since it, nevertheless, exists there should necessarily be a reason for its existence, right? As to me, overpriced relates to prices above the ones which would be there it the buying (selling) decisions were made via rational reasoning given the available info

That is, without being affected by market sentiment, hype, or hysteria

Yeah but what is a rational price for, for example, a bank stock? If they are all pretty close to having a price/sales ratio of 2 then would that be over or under priced? What if they were all 3, or 4? We can use fundamental data about an asset to determine its value, but only to the extent of determining value compared to other similar assets. Ultimately it all comes down to how much people are willing to pay. What makes one p/s ratio more rational than another?

There can be quite a few factors at play

They may not be easily quantifiable but this doesn't in the least mean that they are not real or inconsequential. For example, if a company has been there for ages (like IBM) and has been showing consistent profits year after year, we could well expect its PS ratio or any such metric higher than an average value across the markets. In this way, a company with a higher PS can be considered as undervalued while another company with a lower PS as overvalued. Indeed, in real life it all comes down to how much people are willing to pay, but people are not rational on the whole and susceptible to hype and unfounded optimism as well as pessimism. That's why there is some substance behind such claims (i.e. something being undervalued or overvalued)

What you are saying in your IBM example is true, but once again it is relative. You are saying it is over or under valued compared to the market. But what should the average value of the market be? This is where it just comes down to how much people are willing to pay. You can say an asset is overvalued compared to other similar ones, but ultimately the calculation of value is based on how much people are willing to pay, just indirectly

In fact, I expected that you would come up with something like that

But I specifically didn't address that point beforehand, to let you speak it out loud. Basically, these ratios (PS, PE, PC, etc) mean the same thing, i.e. how long it will take to break even with investments in a company stock if the company earnings remain the same over years. And break even times are an objective measure, more or less (since the mean life span of people is known, and it remains in a pretty narrow range, i.e. 75-80 years). Obviously, if a company is rock-solid through decades, it is expected that it will remain stable and profitable in the future, and therefore people could wait longer till they break even (in essence, by investing in such stocks they are just insuring their future). If people are paying more than is reasonable given these terms, it means that the stock is overvalued and overpriced (read hyped up) and vice versa. In other words, what people are willing to pay is nowhere near being an objective measure, thus the notion of overpriced
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June 06, 2017, 04:41:49 PM
 #56

It's one bubble the teft by printing bubble. Every currency that the thievs print explodes and this one is coming due the only reason there is realestate and other "bubbles" is because all the thieves from all the countries that steal from their people by printing are getting to a point that they will pop! Even where there is no paper money in Rome they poped that just look at history the new fake dollar will pop just like the dinari it's just a matter of time. The dollar died the moment they made it fake 100 years ago! (it use to be real money now it's fake currency!)

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June 06, 2017, 04:49:01 PM
 #57

This surge in the bitcoin market occurs constantly. I am sure that this is the work of whales which invest big money in speculation. If bitcoin will be the "blood" of the new economy on the Internet bubble will not burst for a long time. Now we are only at the beginning.
At least last rally take bitcoin into this all new level, more than a 100% increases within 1 month and it doesn't crash so far, just a correction but quickly recover to this price around $2700.
I didn't notice how stocks, real estate or bond implosion going through the same thing but surely it is a good movement for economics.
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June 06, 2017, 05:12:08 PM
 #58

It's one bubble the teft by printing bubble. Every currency that the thievs print explodes and this one is coming due the only reason there is realestate and other "bubbles" is because all the thieves from all the countries that steal from their people by printing are getting to a point that they will pop! Even where there is no paper money in Rome they poped that just look at history the new fake dollar will pop just like the dinari it's just a matter of time. The dollar died the moment they made it fake 100 years ago! (it use to be real money now it's fake currency!)

Isn't 100 years long enough for any bubble to burst?

Maybe, there is no bubble in the first place at all? People have been telling about the demise of the US dollar as long as I remember myself. Some dudes have even written books about the fall of the US dollar empire (and it was about 15 years ago). Somehow the dollar is still alive and kicking ("the rumors of my death are greatly exaggerated"). Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if it happily lasted for another 100 years
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June 06, 2017, 05:16:21 PM
 #59

Bonds WILL crash, it's already a disaster waiting to happen, it's just a matter of time, and it will probably happen before Trump ends his second term (assuming he wins again).

Maybe he's lucky and he gets out right on time before the disaster happens. Whoever is a president by 2025 or something along the lines, it's going to end up getting hit by the bond disaster, and all the boomers will be forced to dump it for gold, stocks and bitcoin, and bitcoin will skyrocket (even more).
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June 06, 2017, 06:51:59 PM
 #60

Bubbles are all about the value, I mean, lack of value to be more specific
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