The Bear Market is officially...OFF?!?

[arepo]

it can't be exactly like 2011

No, but 2011 is certainly a decent road map on how this thing is going to play out.

i really disagree:

the June '11 event cannot be compared to this. you can be a bear, but not for this reason.

how can this model account for the recent run-up to $165? nothing like that occurred after the $33 peak, and the proportions are entirely wrong: the run-up was much shorter, and the crash was much longer.

The run-up to $165 can be explained by the recent sentiment we've had of "It's different this time!". That caused a feedback-loop of more and more people thinking that things are different now, running up the price. Once the market comes to the realization that things really aren't different this time, that's when things will stop being different.

this quote was a little ambiguous. i meant the run-up from the last ATH to $266. the first bit about $165 was pretext.

the run-up was completely different (1000% over months?), and the crash was completely different (80% in days?). this is a completely different price pattern. almost like a reverse-June-bubble, who's run-up was as short as our crash, and whose crash was as long as our run-up.

[evolve]

I don't know, the bubbles look fairly similar to me on the charts (I do see the pattern you are talking about, though) ...maybe it will go differently this time, but I personally don't think so. 

2011


2013

[bitcon]

looks like all markets are down today, not just bitcoin.

[smoothie]

My fiat is ready...

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=158739.msg1996777#msg1996777

MY BODY IS READY 

[smoothie]

Green. Red... Green... Red... green... red...

I swear this shit always happens the day before I get my BTC, ha ha. It's all about staying close to the exchanges.

We may have hit the bottom, at anyrate we might see another rally or dead cat bounce. After that I have no clue.

So would that be the resurrected cat that is now going to die again bounce?
 

[UltimateReaper]

Green. Red... Green... Red... green... red...

I swear this shit always happens the day before I get my BTC, ha ha. It's all about staying close to the exchanges.

We may have hit the bottom, at anyrate we might see another rally or dead cat bounce. After that I have no clue.

So would that be the resurrected cat that is now going to die again bounce?
 

I got no clue. But I've seen some shit in my lifetime. I don't really know. Nothing to do but watch this storm and think of the best next move.

[evolve]

looks like all markets are down today, not just bitcoin.

I don't think there is any correlation, though.  S&P hit its all time high yesterday while BTC has been trending down for over a week.

[bitcon]

looks like all markets are down today, not just bitcoin.

I don't think there is any correlation, though.  S&P hit its all time high yesterday while BTC has been trending down for over a week.

down for the week, but still up for the year.   

[Krabby]

looks like all markets are down today, not just bitcoin.

I don't know.
I'm pretty happy with LTC doubling in price.

[evolve]

down for the week, but still up for the year.   

Yeah, but for how long?

[just1nmc]

looks like all markets are down today, not just bitcoin.

I don't know.
I'm pretty happy with LTC doubling in price.

Looks like it's down ~10% today

[Jutarul]

I don't know, the bubbles look fairly similar to me on the charts (I do see the pattern you are talking about, though) ...maybe it will go differently this time, but I personally don't think so. 

2011


2013

understand the fundamentals - graphs provide no insight.

[evolve]

See, people keeps saying that, but no one really qualifies what they mean.

Here's what I see:

BTC payment services getting hacked (bitinstant), BTC wallet services being hacked, Lag on the exchanges grinding trading to a halt and killing liquidity, an overinflated price driven by media hype and people looking to get rich quick, an overinflated blockchain that may or may not contain child porn (or links to child porn), an economy driven primarily by drugs and grey market goods, etc, etc

....and thats just the tip of the iceburg.




Frankly, the fundamentals look like shit.

[RationalSpeculator]

Everybody should have made profit in both bitcoins and dollars. If you do things right, you end up with more dollars than you started with and also more bitcoins.

Wauw, that means wonders do exist, please elaborate.

[bitcon]

See, people keeps saying that, but no one really qualifies what they mean.

Here's what I see:

BTC payment services getting hacked (bitinstant), BTC wallet services being hacked, Lag on the exchanges grinding trading to a halt and killing liquidity, an overinflated price driven by media hype and people looking to get rich quick, an overinflated blockchain that may or may not contain child porn (or links to child porn), an economy driven primarily by drugs and grey market goods, etc, etc

....and thats just the tip of the iceburg.




Frankly, the fundamentals look like shit.

yep.  this is why your proudhon packed up and left. only ever saw the negative and never the positive. email accts. get hacked too, guess we should abandon email everywhere and go back to snail-mail.

[evolve]

You can get upset if you like, but it doesn't change the fact that the only justification for a price rise from $20 to $260 in less than 4 months is speculation driven by media hype (not fundamentals).  This has nothing to do with negativity and everything to do with trading realistically and without emotion.

[byronbb]

I don't know, the bubbles look fairly similar to me on the charts (I do see the pattern you are talking about, though) ...maybe it will go differently this time, but I personally don't think so. 

2011


2013

Those mega red candles on the recent graph are massive and I am cautiously optimistic that if the market can absorb such huge volumes without causing a massive slide then we won't see a repeat of bubble 1.0. The big money came in from 50-100. So maybe lower we must go, as orderbook weight is shifting to the sell side.

[Frozenlock]

Frankly, the fundamentals look like shit.

There there...

Fundamentals look great... it's just the price that's disconnected.  

[notme]

I don't know, the bubbles look fairly similar to me on the charts (I do see the pattern you are talking about, though) ...maybe it will go differently this time, but I personally don't think so. 

2011
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=60&i=2-hour&c=1&s=2011-06-01&e=2011-06-19&Prev=&Next=&t=C&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

2013
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=60&i=2-hour&c=1&s=2013-04-01&e=2013-05-02&Prev=&Next=&t=C&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

Those mega red candles on the recent graph are massive and I am cautiously optimistic that if the market can absorb such huge volumes without causing a massive slide then we won't see a repeat of bubble 1.0. The big money came in from 50-100. So maybe lower we must go, as orderbook weight is shifting to the sell side.

It doesn't look so bad if you zoom out a bit:

[chufchuf]

Rubbish. It's only Silk Road's extended downtime leading to panic sells.