The Bear Market is officially...OFF?!?

[evolve]

I hate to see a Bear Market... You guys get Trapped ALL THE FUCKING TIME While some Millionaire is on a Island sipping margaritas collecting the easiest money ever. Hell Im in my home office collecting some easy money.

Notice that since the bubble top,  each time the price "recovers" it settles at a lower price than the last "recovery" (before crashing down again).  The only ones who are getting trapped are the pigs that are "holding forever" and the bulls trying to catch a falling knife. Bears (for the most part) are either shorting the market, or staying out altogether because they've already locked in profits or are past their risk vs reward comfort zone.

When did you lock in profits ? (what is your "reward comfort zone" ?)

Which time? I trade constantly. Last time I sold was at $115, and I'll probably jump back in when we see doubles again (which will be very soon in my estimation). I don't consider myself a bear, but I am bearish on current market conditions.  

Which part are you having trouble understanding: "risk vs reward" or "comfort zone"?

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[Odalv]

Window of opportunity is closing fast.

[evolve]

You got your animals mixed up.

No. No, I didn't. Am I going to have to go over these terms again?




Definition of 'Pig'
An investor who is often seen as greedy, having forgotten his or her original investment strategy to focus on securing unrealistic future gains. After experiencing a gain, these investors often have very high expectations about the future prospects of the investment and, therefore, do not sell their position to realize the gain.

Definition of 'Bull'
An investor who thinks the market, a specific security or an industry will rise. Investors who takes a bull approach will purchase securities under the assumption that they can be sold later at a higher price.

Definition of 'Bear'
An investor who believes that a particular security or market is headed downward. Bears attempt to profit from a decline in prices. Bears are generally pessimistic about the state of a given market.

Definition of 'Sheep'
An investor who lacks a focused trading strategy and trades on emotion and the suggestions of others, including friends, family and financial gurus. This type of investor often makes rash investments without first determining whether these decisions are financially viable. The behavior of sheep contrasts with that of bulls and bears, who have focused views about the market.

Definition of 'Lemming'
The act of an investor following the crowd into an investment, without doing research themselves; this usually results in losses. These investors are emotional and easily swayed by the current ongoings of how well or bad the market is doing. This term is considered a "herd" mentality that can increase the chance of losing invested funds, because investors either leave the market too early or get into it too late, when prices are already too high to make a profit.

Definition of 'Ostrich'
A slang term given to investors or other market participants who ignore important pieces of information or situations, which have the ability to impact them or the market in which they operate. The reasons behind type of action can include risk aversion and bias.


http://www.investopedia.com/tags/stock_market_terminology/definition/


you're welcome.

I'm surprised a 1 year chart wasn't able to accurately predict the future trades in the Bitcoin market.

What in the hell are you talking about? Who is predicting off of the 1 year chart?  I was showing a snapshot of the market.

I swear, some of you just read what you want to see, instead of whats actually being said.

[evolve]

Window of opportunity is closing fast.

We are still trading at around $10 under than the previous major support at $120....that's not exactly a hopeful sign.

[giarc]

Window of opportunity is closing fast.

I think bearing in mind the current fundamentals a price of 70-80 USD would be fair value, this is based on the level of public interest though google trends. Whilst allot of new money has flown in over the last few months innovation has not kept up with the exponential price growth. It may fall further than this but would then in my opinion be undervalued.

The problem it seems to me is that bitcoins potential return was far more attractive than setting up a bitcoin based business. Why invest in infrastructure with such a high rate of return available to those who buy and hold, its more liquid as well. This correction and stabilization will be very good for bitcoin.

[oda.krell]

Notice that since the bubble top,  each time the price "recovers" it settles at a lower price than the last "recovery" (before crashing down again).  [...]

Not exactly. By my count, we are now in correction #5, post-bubble. (Note that what qualifies as a "correction" is up to interpretation, to a degree. I marked in a circle another inbetween high point, followed by a minor decline, that I didn't consider a correction of its own though, because the price drop afterwards wasn't very pronounced).

Correction 1 to 3 were indeed progressively worse. Then correction #4 came, and things looked better for a moment (bottom above two previous bottoms, top above previous top). Admittedly, that all changed with #5, where we can't even be sure yet that we've reached the bottom.

Still, the point I'm getting at is, the statement that after each correction, and recovery, the price settled at a lower point, is not correct. (Although I do agree that with #5 in, the corrections do indeed start looking like they point "downwards").

[evolve]

You are right, I misspoke. I was actually referring to the decline since the latest bear market hit (the fall from $160).  

But you are correct, there were corrections on the way down in the crash and on the subsequent bounce, but they don't really affect the current bear market (though they were important while the crash and bounce played out).

[oda.krell]

Personally, I think corrections #1 to #3 still matter. They form a nice downward triad, with #2 being lower than #1, and #3 being lower than #2, in all relevant aspect (high, low, middle point).

#4 however started higher, and didn't drop as deep as the previous. #5 is obviously below #4, but still not a new absolute low. I'm very much anticipating #6: if it stays below #5, then I finally agree and admit we're in a for a medium-to-long term bear market. If #6 lands somewhat higher though, I will take it as evidence that the gradual downward slide in the form of 3 successive corrections is broken, and we might stabilize.

[evolve]

I think we will definitely see it go lower, barring some insanely good news.  There is still a lot of downward pressure, and news like CoinLab suing MtGox for 70 million isn't helping matters.

[Beta-coiner1]

This is definitely a bearapocalypse,lol.Might be worth selling I think.It might be best to do so now before most US users wake up I think.

[tvbcof]

This is definitely a bearapocalypse,lol.Might be worth selling I think.It might be best to do so now before most US users wake up I think.

"Bearpocalypse Now"  Good one!

While I'm here, I'll call the bottom as in the $40's within a month (absent an external calamity.)

I claim no insight, knowledge, interest, or skill in such things as price picking though.  And I'm certain not putting my money where my mouth is!

[evolve]

I think if we break down through 90, then all hell will break loose and we could see another freefall (which will get worse when the american market wakes up)..... 100 seems to be holding on the top side for now, too.

Doesn't look good, guys.








As of right now, it'll take around 12.5k BTC to buy us under $90.

 

[evolve]

This is definitely a bearapocalypse,lol.

"Bearpocalypse Now"  Good one!

Thread title changed. 

[tvbcof]

This is definitely a bearapocalypse,lol.

"Bearpocalypse Now"  Good one!

Thread title changed. 

Does this end with ~vess going up the river to Tokyo and hacking ~magicaltux with a machete?

[Malawi]

Think there might be a last desperate climb for three digits

[evolve]

Maybe. I think the 100 ceiling will hold for now, though. If not, it could be the set up for an epic bull trap.

[zoolander]

My gut feeling is that we are going to have to test $50 again. For me, that is only point of resistance that has really shown genuine strength under heavy selling pressure. But who knows what might happen this time...

[Malawi]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lWJXDG2i0A

[Wuji]

Bitcoins like beanie baby and tulips are no longer collectible.  How idiots ever thought something virtual was collectible is beyond me.  Should of stuck to WOW, Second Life, and Diablo 3.

How much are those Magic the Gathering Trading Cards going for these days guys?

All fun and games aside the speculators are moving on the price is returning to a reasonable value based on adoption and usage of this virtual currency.  The bubble bursts.  DUR HUR DUR.  Please don't start collecting Bitcoin again and let it grow and become tangible.  If you have a real ATM and have passed regulation awesome, install one near my home please, I'll use it.  Until then thanks for all the profits guys.  I'm going to travel Europe for 2 years and not work starting this summer.

[ironstove]

If we swing to the high 90s with enough speed, might grab resistance from panic buyers that sold around that region (whom I suspect make up the majority of the volume that brought us to break the 80 wall). Hopefully will result in a price swing to the 105-110 area and right into my limit orders

I would consider myself to be a manbearpig in terms of my spirit animal for trading.