The Bear Market is officially...OFF?!?

[Beta-coiner1]

I should have gotten 'bearpocalypse' trademarked,lol.Still,I was able to get at near the bottom for some more btc.

[smoothie]

My guess is both of you wont be on vacation anytime soon..


160 to 50 haha huge spread

But you can triple your bitcoins that way!

lol that's why there will be NO VACATIONS.

No sleep guys lol

[tvbcof]

I should have gotten 'bearpocalypse' trademarked,lol.Still,I was able to get at near the bottom for some more btc.

It was a genuine 'lol' when I read it.  And nice work on hitting the bottom if hindsight indicates that that is indeed the case.  I had to double-down more times than I could count to achieve the nicety back in the late 2011 timeframe.  Seem in retrospect like it might have been one of my better moves.

[byronbb]

Hibernation?

[evolve]

Nope, still trading steadily  below the old support $120.  The new top of $160 (from immediately after the crash to $50) hasn't been tested, and it doesn't look like it will be soon.

Still definitely a bear market.

[molecular]

Nope, still trading steadily  below the old support $120.  The new top of $160 (from immediately after the crash to $50) hasn't been tested, and it doesn't look like it will be soon.

Still definitely a bear market.

Definition of 'Bear Market'
A market condition in which the prices of securities are falling, and widespread pessimism causes the negative sentiment to be self-sustaining. As investors anticipate losses in a bear market and selling continues, pessimism only grows.

I'm sorry. But to fit the current situation to this definition is more than a stretch. I feel no pessimism (let alone widespread) about falling prices, mostly hope (to be able get cheaper coins).

[evolve]

Definition of 'Bear Market'
A market condition in which the prices of securities are falling, and widespread pessimism causes the negative sentiment to be self-sustaining. As investors anticipate losses in a bear market and selling continues, pessimism only grows.

I'm sorry. But to fit the current situation to this definition is more than a stretch. I feel no pessimism (let alone widespread) about falling prices, mostly hope (to be able get cheaper coins).

In what way? Prices are falling, and market sentiment is definitely down (even if you personally arent pessimistic) compare post in this forum to a month ago.

[molecular]

Definition of 'Bear Market'
A market condition in which the prices of securities are falling, and widespread pessimism causes the negative sentiment to be self-sustaining. As investors anticipate losses in a bear market and selling continues, pessimism only grows.

I'm sorry. But to fit the current situation to this definition is more than a stretch. I feel no pessimism (let alone widespread) about falling prices, mostly hope (to be able get cheaper coins).

In what way? Prices are falling, and market sentiment is definitely down (even if you personally arent pessimistic) compare post in this forum to a month ago.

Prices are falling?



Sentiment bearish?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=69029.0 (68% bullish, 32% bearish for april)

[smoothie]

Definition of 'Bear Market'
A market condition in which the prices of securities are falling, and widespread pessimism causes the negative sentiment to be self-sustaining. As investors anticipate losses in a bear market and selling continues, pessimism only grows.

I'm sorry. But to fit the current situation to this definition is more than a stretch. I feel no pessimism (let alone widespread) about falling prices, mostly hope (to be able get cheaper coins).

In what way? Prices are falling, and market sentiment is definitely down (even if you personally arent pessimistic) compare post in this forum to a month ago.

Prices are falling?



Sentiment bearish?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=69029.0 (68% bullish, 32% bearish for april)

We are in May if you did not notice lol

[MAbtc]

Prices are falling?

Outside of the short-term rally over the past few days? Yes.

The longterm trend you exhibited suggests a further downward correction. Could you explain-- when did we break out of the current downtrend?

Sentiment bearish?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=69029.0 (68% bullish, 32% bearish for april)

Bitcointalk may be one of the few indicators we have, but it is a terrible one. Also terrible, but another measure of sentiment:

[evolve]

Prices are falling?

Yes, the highs have been getting lower and lower.  Your line shows a possible long term trend, mine shows what is happening right now in the short to mid term.

Sentiment bearish?

Yes, and a silly forum poll doesn't change that.  Again, look back at threads from a month ago and compare them to now.  The hype machine is definitely more quiet now; No more threads about people taking out loans to buy BTC, no more $10,000 bitcoin threads, no more shouting down every bearish comment, no more bull celebration threads.  Sentiment is definitely much lower.

[evolve]

We are in May if you did not notice lol

That is the current 6 month chart from bitcoinity. Notice how the chart extends past april 30? Yeah.

You really are the worst poster on this forum.

[Francesco]

Prices are falling?

Yes, the highs have been getting lower and lower.  Your line shows a possible long term trend, mine shows what is happening right now in the short to mid term.

Lower highs, but also higher lows. When the two cross, who knows what is gonna happen.

[smoothie]

We are in May if you did not notice lol

That is the current 6 month chart from bitcoinity. Notice how the chart extends past april 30? Yeah.

You really are the worst poster on this forum.

My comment was not directed towards you lol

[evolve]

My comment was not directed towards you lol

My mistake.

[molecular]

Definition of 'Bear Market'
A market condition in which the prices of securities are falling, and widespread pessimism causes the negative sentiment to be self-sustaining. As investors anticipate losses in a bear market and selling continues, pessimism only grows.

I'm sorry. But to fit the current situation to this definition is more than a stretch. I feel no pessimism (let alone widespread) about falling prices, mostly hope (to be able get cheaper coins).

In what way? Prices are falling, and market sentiment is definitely down (even if you personally arent pessimistic) compare post in this forum to a month ago.

Prices are falling?



Sentiment bearish?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=69029.0 (68% bullish, 32% bearish for april)

We are in May if you did not notice lol

I did, but I couldn't find a more recent poll and you "falling prices" have started April 10th.

Is this all you got? ;-)

[evolve]

Lower highs, but also higher lows.

For now. But I think we are much more likely to retest 50 than we are 160 or (even more unlikely) 266.

[Jutarul]

In what way? Prices are falling, and market sentiment is definitely down (even if you personally arent pessimistic) compare post in this forum to a month ago.

The graph shows a nice consolidation pattern. Within the last month we've seen tops and bottoms, each time with less variation from the mean. It's fair to say that the market/price is becoming more predictable again, thus lowering the risk aversion.

However, running the risk of outrage for bringing a technical topic into a speculation thread, what one should also consider is the growth of the mining industry. With the ASICs coming to the market, the production cost of BTC is rising at about 10% per 2 weeks. The current ROI is months. If one analyzes the 2011 bubble, one sees why this is important:
1) the production cost of BTC provides support for a minimum price per BTC
2) investments in mining equipment will increase until the ROI is years (in terms of BTC earnings)

1) caused miners in 2011 to enter the speculation market once the price dropped to critical levels. Most miners are investors who use their technical expertise to make profit from the arbitrage between the production and selling of BTC. However, when the arbitrage window vanishes they can use materialized profits (e.g. fiat) to keep the operation running (burning previous earnings) and adopt a long position in BTC, effectively depleting supply of new BTC and maybe even buy BTC off the market near to or at production costs.

2) gives you an indication of the timeline the mining industry is operating on. It's not days or months - it's years. Thus to discourage miners considerably one would have to keep BTC price BELOW production costs for months!

Miners and speculators operate based on a different mantra. Speculators buy low and sell high and are price driven. Miners produce low and sell higher and are production cost driven. Also they have very different time preferences for their activities.

Based on my analysis the BTC price is still hovering significantly over the production cost. However, the gap is closing fast. A 5x-10x increase in production cost for BTC until the end of this year is likely. Some of this increase will eat into the gap and some will materialize as an increase in BTC price.

[evolve]

However, running the risk of outrage for bringing a technical topic into a speculation thread

Not at all, it is definitely something that has to be considered when we are looking at price.  Mining cost vs production is something I would consider in fundamental analysis.

[molecular]

Prices are falling?

Outside of the short-term rally over the past few days? Yes.

The longterm trend you exhibited suggests a further downward correction. Could you explain-- when did we break out of the current downtrend?

trends depend on timeframe.

I'm sorry, I don't see a downtrend on the one-month chart.

Sentiment is definitely much lower.

About sentiment: yes, it's got a lot less bullish, the hype has settled down. That doesn't imply the sentiment is now "increasingly pessimistic" as the definition of bear market demands.

I'm not convinced.