The Bear Market is officially...OFF?!?

[Miz4r]

This is not a bull market.

It is a bear one. Go for it buddy. I have $6000 in waiting to buy BTC at 95

You're obviously a bull. If you really thought we're in a bear market you would not buy at 95, that's just a small correction from where we are now.

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[evolve]

That's not necessarily true.

You can still buy, sell, and profit even if you think the market is going down. Buying in doesn't necessarily make you bullish on the overall market.

[wamatt]

This is not a bull market.

It is a bear one. Go for it buddy. I have $6000 in waiting to buy BTC at 95

You might be be waiting a long time, but maybe not too. Difficult to say right now, but if you do a search, you'll find plenty still waiting for the <$10 buy-in from the 2011 bubble. Opportunistic bears hoping to buy in cheap.

What you should have done, is bought in at $60, on the post-crash, but didn't and now feel bad. I'd love to get in at 90 again, but the market really has no care about my desires.

[molecular]

So you are shorting at plus500 or similar service? Or just hoping to buy back lower?

I am out of the market completely right now.  I'll think about buying back in when the dust settles.

Ok, so hoping to buy back lower. Kinda of a bull disguised as a bear you too... But very well disguised, I have to say.

Anyhow: if you'd be so sure we are going down you'd be shorting.

To be fair: he didn't say he's sure. He said he thinks it's more probable this will turn into a bear market but didn't rule out the possibility this is just a correction. If he isn't sure, it's not sensible for him to short.

[molecular]

Kinda of a bull disguised as a bear you too...

No, no, no, no.

"Bull" and "bear" dont describe some overriding market philosophy, just an outlook on the current market.

For me, a bull wants to have acquired as many bitcoins as possible in the end. A bear wants to hold his profits in fiat in the end.

[evolve]

For me, a bull wants to have acquired as many bitcoins as possible in the end. A bear wants to hold his profits in fiat in the end.

Ok, but in investment terms, "bear" and "bull" have specific meanings:

Definition of 'Bull'
An investor who thinks the market, a specific security or an industry will rise. Investors who takes a bull approach will purchase securities under the assumption that they can be sold later at a higher price.

Definition of 'Bear'
An investor who believes that a particular security or market is headed downward. Bears attempt to profit from a decline in prices. Bears are generally pessimistic about the state of a given market.

Definition of 'Pig'
An investor who is often seen as greedy, having forgotten his or her original investment strategy to focus on securing unrealistic future gains. After experiencing a gain, these investors often have very high expectations about the future prospects of the investment and, therefore, do not sell their position to realize the gain.

Definition of 'Sheep'
An investor who lacks a focused trading strategy and trades on emotion and the suggestions of others, including friends, family and financial gurus. This type of investor often makes rash investments without first determining whether these decisions are financially viable. The behavior of sheep contrasts with that of bulls and bears, who have focused views about the market.

Definition of 'Lemming'
The act of an investor following the crowd into an investment, without doing research themselves; this usually results in losses. These investors are emotional and easily swayed by the current ongoings of how well or bad the market is doing. This term is considered a "herd" mentality that can increase the chance of losing invested funds, because investors either leave the market too early or get into it too late, when prices are already too high to make a profit.

Definition of 'Ostrich'
A slang term given to investors or other market participants who ignore important pieces of information or situations, which have the ability to impact them or the market in which they operate. The reasons behind type of action can include risk aversion and bias.


http://www.investopedia.com/tags/stock_market_terminology/definition/

Maybe there is a better way to quantify those two groups (fiat vs btc)? What about people who want both? What "end"?

[molecular]

For me, a bull wants to have acquired as many bitcoins as possible in the end. A bear wants to hold his profits in fiat in the end.

Ok, but in investment terms, "bear" and "bull" have specific meanings:

Definition of 'Bull'
An investor who thinks the market, a specific security or an industry will rise. Investors who takes a bull approach will purchase securities under the assumption that they can be sold later at a higher price.

Definition of 'Bear'
An investor who believes that a particular security or market is headed downward. Bears attempt to profit from a decline in prices. Bears are generally pessimistic about the state of a given market.

Definition of 'Pig'
An investor who is often seen as greedy, having forgotten his or her original investment strategy to focus on securing unrealistic future gains. After experiencing a gain, these investors often have very high expectations about the future prospects of the investment and, therefore, do not sell their position to realize the gain.

Definition of 'Sheep'
An investor who lacks a focused trading strategy and trades on emotion and the suggestions of others, including friends, family and financial gurus. This type of investor often makes rash investments without first determining whether these decisions are financially viable. The behavior of sheep contrasts with that of bulls and bears, who have focused views about the market.

Definition of 'Lemming'
The act of an investor following the crowd into an investment, without doing research themselves; this usually results in losses. These investors are emotional and easily swayed by the current ongoings of how well or bad the market is doing. This term is considered a "herd" mentality that can increase the chance of losing invested funds, because investors either leave the market too early or get into it too late, when prices are already too high to make a profit.

Definition of 'Ostrich'
A slang term given to investors or other market participants who ignore important pieces of information or situations, which have the ability to impact them or the market in which they operate. The reasons behind type of action can include risk aversion and bias.


http://www.investopedia.com/tags/stock_market_terminology/definition/

Maybe there is a better way to quantify those two groups (fiat vs btc)? What about people who want both? What "end"?

The end that is never reached: the very long run.

I agree my definition is probably not a very usable one, we should use the traditional "investment world" definitions. However my distinction is still sensible and there certainly are members to both groups on this forum.

[lysr]

The triple tops @115 and breakout with large volume @110 yesterday should trigger a bearish reversal, we will see a low 100ish within this week

[Zaih]

Still going strong sir!

[molecular]

to enter a bear market we need a lower low. Depending on timeframe there are 2 potential lows to break:

• the $80 low on 5/3 (red)
• the $50 low on 4/16 (yellow)

if we don't make a new low below $80, it's not a bear market but a correction (by investopedia definitions quoted further above). We could then enter a bull market or at least further consolodation pattern (green). Of course there's different options for "green", I just outlined roughly one of them. A break of the $170 top would clearly mean we're in a bull market again (both higher highs and higher lows would've been reached then)

I don't think we have to wait more than a month to see this resolved.

[evolve]

Investopedia's definition of bear market says nothing about lower lows. If the price is significantly below 266 in another month (as it is now), it will "officially" be a bear market.

Definition of 'Bear Market'
A market condition in which the prices of securities are falling, and widespread pessimism causes the negative sentiment to be self-sustaining. As investors anticipate losses in a bear market and selling continues, pessimism only grows. Although figures can vary, for many, a downturn of 20\% or more in multiple broad market indexes, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) or Standard & Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500), over at least a two-month period, is considered an entry into a bear market.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bearmarket.asp

However, I do think we will have to break through 50 before the bubble is "popped", and breakout above 150 would definitely signal a trend reversal.

[molecular]

Investopedia's definition of bear market says nothing about lower lows. If the price is significantly below 266 in another month (as it is now), it will "officially" be a bear market.

Definition of 'Bear Market'
A market condition in which the prices of securities are falling, and widespread pessimism causes the negative sentiment to be self-sustaining. As investors anticipate losses in a bear market and selling continues, pessimism only grows. Although figures can vary, for many, a downturn of 20\% or more in multiple broad market indexes, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) or Standard & Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500), over at least a two-month period, is considered an entry into a bear market.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bearmarket.asp

However, I do think we will have to break through 50 before the bubble is "popped", and breakout above 150 would definitely signal a trend reversal.

oh, I'm sorry, I mixed up the definitions of "bear market" and "downtrend".

However I'm not sure a 80% drop (from $266 to $50) within one week followed by a 440% rise (from $50 to $220) over a period of 7 weeks - which in sum gives a "downturn of 20% within 2 months" - would constitute the estblishment of a bearmarket.

[fitty]

However, I do think we will have to break through 50 before the bubble is "popped", and breakout above 150 would definitely signal a trend reversal.

9 days ago you said it was about to get "crazy" and "this bubble is going to pop all the way". And 9 days later, it hasn't gone down.

When you're that dramatic, have charts, and you end up being wrong, you should probably take a break from forecasting BTC. At least stop making threads and bumping your old (wrong) predictions. Maybe stick to posting in the other 300 TA threads until you're back on your feet and you're confident enough to be starting threads with the "next big crazy move" that likely won't happen.

[Rampion]

However, I do think we will have to break through 50 before the bubble is "popped", and breakout above 150 would definitely signal a trend reversal.

9 days ago you said it was about to get "crazy" and "this bubble is going to pop all the way". And 9 days later, it hasn't gone down.

When you're that dramatic, have charts, and you end up being wrong, you should probably take a break from forecasting BTC. At least stop making threads and bumping your old (wrong) predictions. Maybe stick to posting in the other 300 TA threads until you're back on your feet and you're confident enough to be starting threads with the "next big crazy move" that likely won't happen.

I have to say that I enjoy evolve's bearishness. It's well reasoned and he definitely has a cool sense of drama.

Man, look at the topic title: The Bear Market is on....Red candles still haunt my dreams

Every time I read it, it makes my day

[evolve]

9 days ago you said it was about to get "crazy" and "this bubble is going to pop all the way". And 9 days later, it hasn't gone down.

Holy shit, man it's only been 9 days. What do you expect to happen in a week and a half (besides the continued slide downward)? Money doesn't just disappear from the market. The last bubble popped over a period of months ( with insane volatility along the way), and I expect this one will play out in a similar way.

If what I say bothers you that much, click ignore and move on (I promise it won't hurt my feelings).

[fitty]

I have to say that I enjoy evolve's bearishness. It's well reasoned and he definitely has a cool sense of drama.

Man, look at the topic title: The Bear Market is on....Red candles still haunt my dreams

Every time I read it, it makes my day

When you predict the end of the world, tell people to sell their investments, have a pretty chart with lines, that pretty much means you're trying to buy back in. Even if you weren't, turns out you were wrong and should probably stay quiet until God tells you where BTC is going again.

Hopefully no one listened because they probably lost money. Everytime a day trader sells his BTC, he runs to the forum and shits FUD until he can buy back in. We get it, you want the market to drop so you can get back into BTC. Act like a normal adult and save the drama. We don't need a new thread, we don't need chicken little charts, and stop telling people to buy or sell.

Ranting is for the wall tracker thread, it's easier if we keep all the histrionics there.

[Rampion]

I have to say that I enjoy evolve's bearishness. It's well reasoned and he definitely has a cool sense of drama.

Man, look at the topic title: The Bear Market is on....Red candles still haunt my dreams

Every time I read it, it makes my day

When you predict the end of the world, tell people to sell their investments, have a pretty chart with lines, that pretty much means you're trying to buy back in. Even if you weren't, turns out you were wrong and should probably stay quiet until God tells you where BTC is going again.

Hopefully no one listened because they probably lost money. Everytime a day trader sells his BTC, he runs to the forum and shits FUD until he can buy back in. We get it, you want the market to drop so you can get back into BTC. Act like a normal adult and save the drama. We don't need a new thread, we don't need chicken little charts, and stop telling people to buy or sell.

Ranting is for the wall tracker thread, it's easier if we keep all the histrionics there.

Well, it's pretyu clear to me that Evolve is waiting to buy back. He is out, and now he is looking to go back in at the best spot.

I think it's clear from his very first posts after April, 10th.

[fitty]

Holy shit, man it's only been 9 days. What do you expect to happen in a week and a half (besides the continued slide downward)? Money doesn't just disappear from the market. The last bubble popped over a period of months ( with insane volatility along the way), and I expect this one will play out in a similar way.

If what I say bothers you that much, click ignore and move on (I promise it won't hurt my feelings).

I didn't realize that

Hold on to your pants guys...its gonna get crazy.  

Meant, hold onto your pants for weeks and weeks (maybe months), the market might drop (or it might not) and it might burst all the way down (or it might not).

And as for your money disappearing bullshit, we went from $266 to $105 in less then a day. That must have been magically money that had the ability to disappear, but this new money disappears much more slowly. So you don't know where BTC is going, and you don't know what happened to BTC in the past. You're 0 for 2.

[evolve]

oh, I'm sorry, I mixed up the definitions of "bear market" and "downtrend".

However I'm not sure a 80% drop (from $266 to $50) within one week followed by a 440% rise (from $50 to $220) over a period of 7 weeks - which in sum gives a "downturn of 20% within 2 months" - would constitute the estblishment of a bearmarket.

It never recovered to 220, the bounce from 50 hit up to just above 160 on the 24th and hasn't been close since. The consistently lower highs would certainly constitute a downturn, the exact percentage will be known in a month.

[evolve]

Every time I read it, it makes my day