The Bear Market is officially...OFF?!?

[evolve]

I didn't realize that

Hold on to your pants guys...its gonna get crazy.   

Meant, hold onto your pants for weeks and weeks (maybe months), the market might drop (or it might not) and it might burst all the way down (or it might not).

Your ADHD is your own problem, not mine. The market doesnt move on your time, it moves on its own time...if you cant handle that, go invest in bonds or CD's or something more predictable.

And as for your money disappearing bullshit, we went from $266 to $105 in less then a day. That must have been magically money that had the ability to disappear, but this new money disappears much more slowly.

No, you jackass. People sold their BTC, but not everyone just yanked their money out of the market. Some stayed in fiat to see how low it would go, some bought back in at 50 hoping for a recovery (hence the bounce). While those who got burned really hard probably exited the market completely, plenty of people stayed in, which is why the bubble hasn't popped all the way yet (and why the bulls consolidation to recovery theory is still a small possibility).  When and If the market fails to recover, people will lose confidence that it will recover, and the price slides lower; but this doesn't happen overnight. We saw the same exact thing in 2011.

[Rampion]

I didn't realize that

Hold on to your pants guys...its gonna get crazy.   

Meant, hold onto your pants for weeks and weeks (maybe months), the market might drop (or it might not) and it might burst all the way down (or it might not).

Your ADHD is your own problem, not mine. The market doesnt move on your time, it moves on its own time...if you cant handle that, go invest in bonds or CD's or something more predictable.

And as for your money disappearing bullshit, we went from $266 to $105 in less then a day. That must have been magically money that had the ability to disappear, but this new money disappears much more slowly.

No, you jackass. People sold their BTC, but not everyone just yanked their money out of the market. Some stayed in fiat to see how low it would go, some bought back in at 50 hoping for a recovery (hence the bounce). While those who got burned really hard probably exited the market completely, plenty of people stayed in which is why the bubble hasn't popped all the way yet (and why the bulls consolidation to recovery theory is still a small possibility).  When and If the market fails to recover, people will lose confidence that it will recover and the price slides lower. We saw the same exact thing in 2011.

There's quite a lot of fiat sitting in Gox's order book, very close to ATH (which was something like $23M). Do you know if it's possible to find somewhere a bid sum graph for 2011? Blockchained data starts in Jan 2012.

[lebing]

Seems that instead of buying in market orders as we went up, people got wise to the volatility and just started adding bids as there was a good chance they would be filled. Everyday that passes with this stability it seems that the likelihood of the general market strategy at present decreases.

[molecular]

oh, I'm sorry, I mixed up the definitions of "bear market" and "downtrend".

However I'm not sure a 80% drop (from $266 to $50) within one week followed by a 440% rise (from $50 to $220) over a period of 7 weeks - which in sum gives a "downturn of 20% within 2 months" - would constitute the estblishment of a bearmarket.

It never recovered to 220, the bounce from 50 hit up to just above 160 on the 24th and hasn't been close since. The consistently lower highs would certainly constitute a downturn, the exact percentage will be known in a month.

the $220 was calculated by me to result in a total 20% downturn. (266 * 0.. The 7 weeks have been calculated by me to make it a total of 2 month for that downturn.

I was trying to construct a hypothetical case where theres a 20% drop in 2 months (so it fits the bear market definition) yet clearly it's not a bear market because it has been rising by 340% for 7 weeks. That bear market definition of a 20% drop within 2 month clearly doesn't work for markets that go up and down 20% on some days. That was my point.

Why did I make that point? So I could reference this post should the hypothetical situation occur and you indeed say: "look, bear market confirmed: 20% down in 2 months".

[evolve]

I was trying to construct a hypothetical case where theres a 20% drop in 2 months (so it fits the bear market definition) yet clearly it's not a bear market because it has been rising by 340% for 7 weeks. That bear market definition of a 20% drop within 2 month clearly doesn't work for markets that go up and down 20% on some days. That was my point.

Ok, I see where you are going with this now.

[evolve]

Do you know if it's possible to find somewhere a bid sum graph for 2011?

Not that I know of. 

[Crypt_Current]

OH A NEW THRE... oh wait, just renamed.  Again.
...
Oh Evolve, you so clevar!!1!

[Rampion]

Do you know if it's possible to find somewhere a bid sum graph for 2011?

Not that I know of. 

It would be interesting to see how fast the money was taken out from Gox's order book, compared to today - don't you think so?

Actual figure seems pretty healthy.

[ironstove]

A lot of the wall could be fake, we've seen many fake walls come and go. That's the caution you need to take with these unregulated markets, an individual could easily place a fake bluff on either side to manipulate price movement, remove the bluff then take action once price has shifted.

[MAbtc]

When you predict the end of the world, tell people to sell their investments, have a pretty chart with lines, that pretty much means you're trying to buy back in. Even if you weren't, turns out you were wrong and should probably stay quiet until God tells you where BTC is going again.

Hopefully no one listened because they probably lost money. Everytime a day trader sells his BTC, he runs to the forum and shits FUD until he can buy back in. We get it, you want the market to drop so you can get back into BTC. Act like a normal adult and save the drama. We don't need a new thread, we don't need chicken little charts, and stop telling people to buy or sell.

So much butthurt around here... 

Tidbit-- just because some of you are entirely too emotional over short-term price movements, that doesn't mean that those of us who speculate in the speculation forum are trying to drive prices. Some of us also aren't so fucking stupid to think we could affect the market this way. Also, this thread doesn't qualify as FUD. See trolls like fourkey and jaroslaw for reference.

But seriously, dude? 9 days into a prediction of further downslide (with many references to 2011 ITT), and you cry like a bitch shouting strawmans like this? People like you are so much worse than the FUD trolls. If something is FUD, then analyze it as such and drop some knowledge on the forum. Don't bitch and create strawmans because you can't develop a superior argument.

Sorry for the derail. But fucking fuck, man.

[evolve]

+1

[evolve]

It would be interesting to see how fast the money was taken out from Gox's order book, compared to today - don't you think so?

Actual figure seems pretty healthy.

A lot of the wall could be fake, we've seen many fake walls come and go. That's the caution you need to take with these unregulated markets, an individual could easily place a fake bluff on either side to manipulate price movement, remove the bluff then take action once price has shifted.

You could probably put one together if you can find historical data from Gox's raw feed.  Ironstove has a point, but I think cancelled orders show in the raw feed.

[oda.krell]

A lot of the wall could be fake, we've seen many fake walls come and go. That's the caution you need to take with these unregulated markets, an individual could easily place a fake bluff on either side to manipulate price movement, remove the bluff then take action once price has shifted.

I'm quite sure short-term fake walls exist. We've all seen them in action. But a lot of people seem to have this idea that a large portion of the total mtgox order book are "fake" as well, put in there only to give a skewed impression of the market.

Problem is, all orders in the book are funded (or should be, in principle), meaning that whoever wants to manipulate the market long-term in such a way better has a few million USD lying around that he doesn't mind sitting in the mtgox order book, week after week. Gaining no interest whatsoever, when they could be put to use in other markets. And taken care of by a company that has a more than spotty history of reliability. Yeah. No way that could possibly be a bad idea to do.

[jubalix]

check price after 1 year, btc= 1000usd , magic!  

Everyone see this?

This is the attitude that is going to get a lot of people burned. Hard.

(I'm not trying to pick on you specifically, Gigacoin...)

yes but not in 5 years.

[evolve]

yes but not in 5 years.

Perhaps. A lot can happen in five years, particularly with BTC. I personally think we will still be experiencing a boom and bust economy 5 years from now; whether the bubbles will get bigger each time, or dwindle down until interest is lost, is still a mystery.

[fitty]

Hold on to your pants guys...

Okay! *grabs pants*

its gonna get crazy.

I'm more of a vanilla guy but this sounds too good to pass up. Crazy Mode ON!

Secretly, I hoped the pigs were right and we would bubble up again, but
every day it looks more and more like
this bubble is going to pop all the way...
take profits while you can guys
it may be your last chance.

Free financial advice?! You're a gentleman and a scholar good sir!

Oh wait, 10 days later and the market is up. Well those nuggets of wisdom sure didn't pan out.

Great call Coinstradomus. For the communities sake (emotional and financial), maybe we can get a bounty going to stop you from sharing your BTC forecasting. I'm not sure if we can afford any more of your "help" navigating this crazy world we call Bitcoin.

[molecular]

Great call Coinstradomus. For the communities sake (emotional and financial), maybe we can get a bounty going to stop you from sharing your BTC forecasting. I'm not sure if we can afford any more of your "help" navigating this crazy world we call Bitcoin.

Oh come on. Listening to his forecasts and especially acting on them is voluntary.

In addition: listening to anyones forecast and acting on them is reckless. Do your own due diligence.

[evolve]

Oh wait, 10 days later and the market is up. Well those nuggets of wisdom sure didn't pan out.

The market is up?  The one struggling to trade over 120?  This is "up"?  Really? Really?  

The price was higher 5 days ago, but you go ahead and keep up that righteous indignation, sport.

Either contribute something of value to the thread or get the fuck out.

[evolve]

Fitty's shitposting aside, The breakout up is a short term bullish sign. Is this the bull theory coming to fruition?

Maybe. I'm not convinced, yet.  

Either way, looks like the consolidation might be over, guys....time to see some price movement. Place your bets.

[lysr]

Let the bulls have their days, it won't last long though.