The Bear Market is officially...OFF?!?

[Rampion]

Yeah? I haven't seen it yet...

Objectively describe the market (holding yourself to the same standards as you are holding everyone else) and describe how your model is better (or indeed different) from the models presented in this thread.

I am all ears.

Alright, I'll bite.

I've been posting along those lines for a few times in the Wall Observer thread, so here's the barebone argument only:

Based on my order book calculations (bid and ask totals, recent changes, and order book price composition), as well as money flow and momentum indicators of the past 2 weeks, and the fact that since the beginning of May no data points for any of the hypothesized downtrends exist anymore (while the mid-January uptrend is still possible, even if unlikely), I conclude the following:

a) We are still in a consolidation phase. Movement in the coming week will be slow (barring world-changing news of course).

b) Whether the correction is finished or not is too difficult to determine, and I would suggest not to waste time on trying to do so. Predicting the price movement of the coming week(s) is difficult enough, and sufficient knowledge for most speculators to act upon.

c) I see a short-to-medium uptrend as the slightly more likely scenario than a further downward movement, for the reasons outlined above (money entering the order book), and the fact that according to the growth trend that brought us into the 100+ range, we're still *slightly* over target (the mid-January trend has us at around 100 now, so we're 17 above target right now), which means sideways trading for now works in favor of this trend.

As for my own falsifying conditions:

A sharp price decline below 100 within the coming week or two will invalidate my points made above. Falling to a new low will obviously be extremely strong evidence that the correction continues with full strength. I am not entirely ruling out that over the course of the coming week money will leave the market and prices might decline, and a sub-100 scenario could unfold, but I fully expect signs for this drop to manifest in the order book and money flow indicators first.

Really enjoyed your analysis - I came to more or less your same conclusions observing the market, including the falsifying conditions.

Nevertheless I have to say that evolve raised some valid points too. It's true he has his very own sense of bearish drama that some bulls may dislike, but I have to admit that I personally enjoy it

[ElectricMucus]

... the fact that ...

I stopped reading there. Interpretation and opinion should never be called a fact.

[oda.krell]

That's it? I've given the same type of analysis (and gone in greater detail) throughout this thread.  

Maybe you should go back to the Wall Observer thread, you don't seem to be following the conversation in this one very well.

Yeah, I expected nothing less than that as a response from you. True intelligence always shines through :)

[oda.krell]

... the fact that ...

I stopped reading there. Interpretation and opinion should never be called a fact.

Nice. That means you read a bit more than 50% of my post.

On a related note: What happened? You used to write always entertaining, usually insightful, occasionally bearish posts. Now they're always bearish, and about the rest... I don't know. Get back to the old shape, I suggest.

[oda.krell]

You have already shown that you have no real interest in what I am saying or having a civil conversation. You don't want a discussion, you want a soapbox. 

If by "soapbox" you mean me wanting to come here to call you out on your sloppy methodology, then yes, that's exactly what I want.

[notme]

hey guys, quit bickering and sell some bitcoins... the price is rising

[kooke]

People are getting bored of waiting for bitcoin's price to go up. Soon, they'll give up and just dump them, meaning cheap coins for us all

[smoothie]

Guys stop fighting. It really looks pathetic.

"No you suck, no you suck, no you suck..."

You both suck okay? 

Now back to this bear analysis...lol 

[molecular]

this thread has degraded substantially.

[molecular]

on a more constructive (kind of) note:

We have invalidated pretty much all trends / triangles we can draw and are smurfing along beyond the apex of the grand correction triangle.

What does this mean? Which TA constructs can be used now?

I feel lost.

[evolve]

hey guys, quit bickering

Guys stop fighting.

this thread has degraded substantially.

You're right. I have removed my posts that contributed to the derail.

We have invalidated pretty much all trends / triangles we can draw and are smurfing along beyond the apex of the grand correction triangle.

What does this mean? Which TA constructs can be used now?

I feel lost.

Low volume and sideways trading means the market is unsure.

All we can do now is wait until the price breaks out of this trading range. When the price breaks in one direction or another, I it could go all the way to the next major support. That said, we could see more false starts that fall quickly back into consolidation along the way. For now, you cant really do much until a pattern makes itself evident.  

Watch the charts (or set price alerts) and be prepared to make a move at any point.

[smoothie]

I am of the belief that you do nothing until it is obvious that you have a buy or sell signal. Obvious meaning seriously over sold or over bought.

[lebing]

on a more constructive (kind of) note:

We have invalidated pretty much all trends / triangles we can draw and are smurfing along beyond the apex of the grand correction triangle.

What does this mean? Which TA constructs can be used now?

I feel lost.

Coiling - each and every time we go horizontal for awhile, at some point we go up.

[Frozenlock]

Coiling - each and every time we go horizontal for awhile, at some point we go up.

---> Date Registered:   July 11, 2012, 02:38:04 AM

That explains a lot. 

[Rampion]

on a more constructive (kind of) note:

We have invalidated pretty much all trends / triangles we can draw and are smurfing along beyond the apex of the grand correction triangle.

What does this mean? Which TA constructs can be used now?

I feel lost.

Coiling - each and every time we go horizontal for awhile, at some point we go up.

Not every time - remember July 2011?

Anyhow, i see many differences between today and 2011. Sure, no more parabolic growth, so a lot of the "get rich quick" wannabe speculators might have lost interest. Others are waiting for cheaper coins, but I believe the majority of investors know that Bitcoin is healthier than ever - this did not happen in 2011.

I'm ready (and hoping) for cheaper coins, but IMHO $50 was the bottom for this year - so no slow and deep bubble collapse. Mid term we are going up.

[naphto]

Both bears and bulls are right since we are in a range market

[evolve]

Looks like we finally got a little bit of movement again. No test of old lows so far, but the day isn't over yet.

Thoughts?

[Frozenlock]

We are going down.

The market didn't know where to go, but now there's an obvious direction.

[fourkey2001]

price to go down to 70ish!

[notme]

Looks like we finally got a little bit of movement again. No test of old lows so far, but the day isn't over yet.

Thoughts?

The bull case still has some ground to stand on, but they need to hold it here.  Daily RSI bouncing below 50 may make that difficult.