The Bear Market is officially...OFF?!?

[evolve]

It should. I've been waiting for a significant move in either direction to bump the thread....I certainly didn't think it would take this long though. The long slow slide has been longer and slower than I originally thought.



How many true believers do we have left? Anyone still thinking we are going to $10,000 this year?

[molecular]

It should. I've been waiting for a significant move in either direction to bump the thread....I certainly didn't think it would take this long though. The long slow slide has been longer and slower than I originally thought.



How many true believers do we have left? Anyone still thinking we are going to $10,000 this year?

I'm still a true believer. Never thought $10,000 this year was possible. I actually voted "never" in the respective poll (suggesting the USD would cease to exist before that).

Let's remain realistic: yes, the bears were/are right and I was too bullish / in denial when the bubble popped. It really looks like a long slow slide down like in 2011.

However: the fundamental situation is not like it was in 2011. Back then it was all doom and gloom and a large portion of the community and even more so the rest of the world truly believed bitcoin was dead. There was talk of dead cat bounces and blood was running in the streets of these forums. This is not the situation we see now and I don't believe it's going to come to that.

Let's look at some numbers: The 2011 pop yielded a "correction" (lol) of ~94%. Same thing applied to 2013 would result in a price of $16.5 / BTC. Currently we're at 70% off from the $266 high.

Again, realistically speaking: If you think we'll see blood on the streets of this forum again exactly like in 2011, selling now and buying at roughly the bottom ($16.5) would quadruple ones bitcoin holdings. He who thinks bitcoin is doomed to fail this time should be all out by now. In my mind, a realistic bottom is going to be put in at $30, $50 or $80.

The ones shooting for a bottom too low will be left holding the fiat bag.

[Jutarul]

It should. I've been waiting for a significant move in either direction to bump the thread....

the price probed the current level 3 times within the last 2 months and bumped back up. If anything this indicates that people are unwilling to sell below the current level.

Network difficulty is shooting up dramatically now. Once production cost and market price for BTC become similar (+- 20%) it changes the dynamics. Many miners are speculators who invest in mining equipment in order to acquire bitcoins at a lower price point. However, if mining becomes unprofitable, those people will just buy from the market and likely start another rally. Likely to start around september - or earlier if price keeps falling.

[Rampion]

It should. I've been waiting for a significant move in either direction to bump the thread....I certainly didn't think it would take this long though. The long slow slide has been longer and slower than I originally thought.



How many true believers do we have left? Anyone still thinking we are going to $10,000 this year?

I'm still a true believer. Never thought $10,000 this year was possible. I actually voted "never" in the respective poll (suggesting the USD would cease to exist before that).

Let's remain realistic: yes, the bears were/are right and I was too bullish / in denial when the bubble popped. It really looks like a long slow slide down like in 2011.

However: the fundamental situation is not like it was in 2011. Back then it was all doom and gloom and a large portion of the community and even more so the rest of the world truly believed bitcoin was dead. There was talk of dead cat bounces and blood was running in the streets of these forums. This is not the situation we see now and I don't believe it's going to come to that.

Let's look at some numbers: The 2011 pop yielded a "correction" (lol) of ~94%. Same thing applied to 2013 would result in a price of $16.5 / BTC. Currently we're at 70% off from the $266 high.

Again, realistically speaking: If you think we'll see blood on the streets of this forum again exactly like in 2011, selling now and buying at roughly the bottom ($16.5) would quadruple ones bitcoin holdings. He who thinks bitcoin is doomed to fail this time should be all out by now. In my mind, a realistic bottom is going to be put in at $30, $50 or $80.

The ones shooting for a bottom too low will be left holding the fiat bag.

+100, but let's face that the absence of gloom and doom compared to 2011 is a double faced coin. Despair and capitulation are unavoidable, and this time the decline will be slower (and thus more painful) because there are more bulls in denial.

Agreed on the three bottoms, but $80 is a tad too optimistic, I'd bet on $50 or $30ish

[RationalSpeculator]

It should. I've been waiting for a significant move in either direction to bump the thread....I certainly didn't think it would take this long though. The long slow slide has been longer and slower than I originally thought.



How many true believers do we have left? Anyone still thinking we are going to $10,000 this year?

I'm still a true believer. Never thought $10,000 this year was possible. I actually voted "never" in the respective poll (suggesting the USD would cease to exist before that).

Let's remain realistic: yes, the bears were/are right and I was too bullish / in denial when the bubble popped. It really looks like a long slow slide down like in 2011.

However: the fundamental situation is not like it was in 2011. Back then it was all doom and gloom and a large portion of the community and even more so the rest of the world truly believed bitcoin was dead. There was talk of dead cat bounces and blood was running in the streets of these forums. This is not the situation we see now and I don't believe it's going to come to that.

Let's look at some numbers: The 2011 pop yielded a "correction" (lol) of ~94%. Same thing applied to 2013 would result in a price of $16.5 / BTC. Currently we're at 70% off from the $266 high.

Again, realistically speaking: If you think we'll see blood on the streets of this forum again exactly like in 2011, selling now and buying at roughly the bottom ($16.5) would quadruple ones bitcoin holdings. He who thinks bitcoin is doomed to fail this time should be all out by now. In my mind, a realistic bottom is going to be put in at $30, $50 or $80.

The ones shooting for a bottom too low will be left holding the fiat bag.

+100, but let's face that the absence of gloom and doom compared to 2011 is a double faced coin. Despair and capitulation are unavoidable, and this time the decline will be slower (and thus more painful) because there are more bulls in denial.

Agreed on the three bottoms, but $80 is a tad too optimistic, I'd bet on $50 or $30ish

+1 from me too Molecular. Rampion, why is despair and capitulation unavoidable in this correction?

[Rampion]

It should. I've been waiting for a significant move in either direction to bump the thread....I certainly didn't think it would take this long though. The long slow slide has been longer and slower than I originally thought.



How many true believers do we have left? Anyone still thinking we are going to $10,000 this year?

I'm still a true believer. Never thought $10,000 this year was possible. I actually voted "never" in the respective poll (suggesting the USD would cease to exist before that).

Let's remain realistic: yes, the bears were/are right and I was too bullish / in denial when the bubble popped. It really looks like a long slow slide down like in 2011.

However: the fundamental situation is not like it was in 2011. Back then it was all doom and gloom and a large portion of the community and even more so the rest of the world truly believed bitcoin was dead. There was talk of dead cat bounces and blood was running in the streets of these forums. This is not the situation we see now and I don't believe it's going to come to that.

Let's look at some numbers: The 2011 pop yielded a "correction" (lol) of ~94%. Same thing applied to 2013 would result in a price of $16.5 / BTC. Currently we're at 70% off from the $266 high.

Again, realistically speaking: If you think we'll see blood on the streets of this forum again exactly like in 2011, selling now and buying at roughly the bottom ($16.5) would quadruple ones bitcoin holdings. He who thinks bitcoin is doomed to fail this time should be all out by now. In my mind, a realistic bottom is going to be put in at $30, $50 or $80.

The ones shooting for a bottom too low will be left holding the fiat bag.

+100, but let's face that the absence of gloom and doom compared to 2011 is a double faced coin. Despair and capitulation are unavoidable, and this time the decline will be slower (and thus more painful) because there are more bulls in denial.

Agreed on the three bottoms, but $80 is a tad too optimistic, I'd bet on $50 or $30ish

+1 from me too Molecular. Rampion, why is despair and capitulation unavoidable in this correction?

Because its not a correction, it's a bubble deflating, and before BTC can start a new growth trend it needs to be undervalued and oversold.

[Ultraviolet]

$80 will def not be the bottom. $70 might be the bottom for July/August though. I think 60s under current market conditions will just trigger huge monster buys.

Next mini rally will begin when it gets sold off hard into low 80s. If that doesn't trigger bullish momentum then 70s and downhill until BTC gets mainstream hype again.

[N12]

However: the fundamental situation is not like it was in 2011. Back then it was all doom and gloom and a large portion of the community and even more so the rest of the world truly believed bitcoin was dead. There was talk of dead cat bounces and blood was running in the streets of these forums. This is not the situation we see now and I don't believe it's going to come to that.

Exact same thing can happen now. The doom and gloom only developed once we were WELL into the bear market and nearing $2. The point is that sentiment is lagging and you can see the same thing happening and Wired and Forbes spinning something nice, only this time with regulation/convertability/altcoin fears instead of hacks and whatnot.

The ones shooting for a bottom too low will be left holding the fiat bag.

How is USD a bag? USD is opportunity. If Bitcoin doesn't offer you a good deal, you can always go elsewhere. Things have been collapsing against the dollar.

[Jaroslaw]

So we have a USD in deflation

[RationalSpeculator]

+1 from me too Molecular. Rampion, why is despair and capitulation unavoidable in this correction?

Because its not a correction, it's a bubble deflating, and before BTC can start a new growth trend it needs to be undervalued and oversold.

How do you know that this will not just be a correction but that this will be a bubble deflating?

I'm asking as I'm not sure. I would agree that chances are higher for the price to go down over the next half year.

However, I also think there is a smaller but real chance that it won't and we trend higher the coming half year.

You seem very certain this won't happen. I'm wondering what makes you so certain?

[Miz4r]

Because its not a correction, it's a bubble deflating, and before BTC can start a new growth trend it needs to be undervalued and oversold.

You sound so sure of this, almost as if you're speaking about cold hard facts. Except you don't. Undervalued and oversold are subject to interpretation, there is no specific value you can pinpoint when this will be the case. The new growth trend could start from today, or next week. Or never. You don't know, I don't know. And that's a real fact. Too many bulls in denial? That's just your opinion and your point of view.

[Peter Lambert]

So we have a USD in deflation

But deflation is economy killing evil, and must be avoided at all costs! Warm up the printing presses, we have to print faster!

[Spaceman_Spiff]

+1 from me too Molecular. Rampion, why is despair and capitulation unavoidable in this correction?

Because its not a correction, it's a bubble deflating, and before BTC can start a new growth trend it needs to be undervalued and oversold.

How do you know that this will not just be a correction but that this will be a bubble deflating?

I'm asking as I'm not sure. I would agree that chances are higher for the price to go down over the next half year.

However, I also think there is a smaller but real chance that it won't and we trend higher the coming half year.

You seem very certain this won't happen. I'm wondering what makes you so certain?

I think because of the magnitude of the previous bubble.  Big-ass bubbles like that require a big-ass deflation.  Nonetheless, personally, the majority of my "BTC allocated money" is still in BTC instead of fiat, just because I mainly want to play the long-term game, and don't want to be the guy who misses the train and keeps hoping for a decent drop.  The market can always prove you wrong.  Still, it's nice to have some fiat available and hope for some "really cheap coins".

[Rampion]

+1 from me too Molecular. Rampion, why is despair and capitulation unavoidable in this correction?

Because its not a correction, it's a bubble deflating, and before BTC can start a new growth trend it needs to be undervalued and oversold.

How do you know that this will not just be a correction but that this will be a bubble deflating?

I'm asking as I'm not sure. I would agree that chances are higher for the price to go down over the next half year.

However, I also think there is a smaller but real chance that it won't and we trend higher the coming half year.

You seem very certain this won't happen. I'm wondering what makes you so certain?

Everything points to a bubble deflating and not to a correction. The "correction" case is still remotely possible, but it gets weaker and weaker each day that passes.

I'm not 100% sure about the market, nobody can be. But I know that statistically there are much more chances for the price to go down mid term, than to go up. This is how the post-bubble plays out 99% of the times (and the 1% that didn't it was because it was not a bubble in the first instance), and for those arguing that the run-up from $20ish to $266 was not a bubble I have a lot of counter-arguments (primarily based in common sense and logic) about how we indeed witnessed a speculative mania phase that led to a spectacular bubble.

Now, BTC is following a consistent downwards trend since April, 10th, full of bull traps and sucker rallies, but a consistent downwards trend nevertheless. I just see the trend and I do not fight it.

[evolve]

+1 from me too Molecular. Rampion, why is despair and capitulation unavoidable in this correction?

Because its not a correction, it's a bubble deflating, and before BTC can start a new growth trend it needs to be undervalued and oversold.

How do you know that this will not just be a correction but that this will be a bubble deflating?

I'm asking as I'm not sure. I would agree that chances are higher for the price to go down over the next half year.

However, I also think there is a smaller but real chance that it won't and we trend higher the coming half year.

You seem very certain this won't happen. I'm wondering what makes you so certain?

Everything points to a bubble deflating and not to a correction. The "correction" case is still remotely possible, but it gets weaker and weaker each day that passes.

I'm not 100% sure about the market, nobody can be. But I know that statistically there are much more chances for the price to go down mid term, than to go up. This is how the post-bubble plays out 99% of the times (and the 1% that didn't it was because it was not a bubble in the first instance), and for those arguing that the run-up from $20ish to $266 was not a bubble I have a lot of counter-arguments (primarily based in common sense and logic) about how we indeed witnessed a speculative mania phase that led to a spectacular bubble.

Now, BTC is following a consistent downwards trend since April, 10th, full of bull traps and sucker rallies, but a consistent downwards trend nevertheless. I just see the trend and I do not fight it.

This.

[Wekkel]

Now, BTC is following a consistent downwards trend since April, 10th, full of bull traps and sucker rallies, but a consistent downwards trend nevertheless. I just see the trend and I do not fight it.

This and this only. Your own feelings have nothing to do with it.

[evolve]

Stolen from another thread:

[tokeweed]

I do believe we are headed to a downward trend, but people will have plenty of time to sell... I am constantly buying/selling with each swing, making 2-5% each time... This won't be a fast crash down so take your time if you decide to sell

smart man.

[RationalSpeculator]

I do believe we are headed to a downward trend, but people will have plenty of time to sell... I am constantly buying/selling with each swing, making 2-5% each time... This won't be a fast crash down so take your time if you decide to sell

smart man.

I fully agree, am doing the same. Buy and hold would have earned me around 500% with bitcoin this year, I am around 1000% by simply selling as it goes up and buying as it goes down.

[axefrog]

I do believe we are headed to a downward trend, but people will have plenty of time to sell... I am constantly buying/selling with each swing, making 2-5% each time... This won't be a fast crash down so take your time if you decide to sell

smart man.

I fully agree, am doing the same. Buy and hold would have earned me around 500% with bitcoin this year, I am around 1000% by simply selling as it goes up and buying as it goes down.

What signals do you use to decide when a trend is about to change?