Turn $10,000 into 1 Million

[Zero1One0]

Salute to OP HR for starting this personal challenge.

I have a couple of question (NOTE: I have not read the full thread - I will try to read everything in due time):
1. Aside from the charts, what were the "fundamentals" that you saw in the first alt coins that you selected to include it in your portfolio? Any strengths that these alts have that made you to select them over the rest?
2. What are your trigger points/tolerance in % to sell, buy, rebalance? If it's already in the thread, please advise.

I am running a challenge myself - From 1 airdrop (btc .02) to 1 btc.
The means/process to reach the goal maybe different but it will still be informative for noobs nonetheless.

Following this as I'd like to learn as well. Salute for sharing knowledge to community! 

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[Kopen]

And one more (hopefully quick) question.

During the dip last July you shifted a fair amount into USDT. That's a touch high-risk for me given their (and/or bfx) banking troubles. Technically, I'm more worried about an irrational market response to the whole thing.

Any thoughts on an alternative? Could always do Alt -> BTC -> Fiat, but that's messy and I assume slippage becomes a thing. What do you think of bitUSD? Still end up doing Alt -> BTS -> bitUSD, but that seems less risky to me for some reason.

Would've just been happy hoarding LTC but now that's hitting ATH's too. Maybe that's still the answer since it's still way less volatile (retraced like half of what BTC did in July)?

[HR]

Okay, a couple of questions about thresholds and rebalancing from Kopen. I’ll use a real time example: MCO. First of all, we’ve got to distinguish between speculative and super speculative (which in the “real world” would be investment and speculative), and MCO is super speculative and was never meant to be anything more than a spec play. According to my bear market rules, no one superspec asset can account for more than 2.5% of the portfolio and must be traded in 1/6th size blocks, scalping 40, 50, 80 percent gains. MCO fell to 1.3% of portfolio size and I “doubled down” and brought it up to 4% (breaking my own rule, but I really liked the trade for more than an 80% gain at that point). My average buy was ~.00062. My first sell order was in for just under .001, and others were stair-stepped higher. Sold almost 2/3rds on the first run-up and banked around 2.5 BTC. That also brought its portfolio percentage down to 10% from a pre-sell 20%. Now, 20% was way out of line from what I should have done with a superspec, but I liked what I was seeing and I try to let profits run in spite of almost always selling early. Now it’s back up to 14% and this is a superspec position that is supposed to be a short term scalp! Time to bring it back in line! After all, it’s getting close to being a 20x off of lows. So that means selling another 60% of the remaining position to get things down to 5%, which will still be double what it should be! I’ll then hang on to that until I get a sell signal, which I still don’t have, but since I’m a shitty trader, I’ll stay safe, rebalance reasonably, and settle for the roughly 4 BTC I’ll have banked for the 1 invested - and still have about another full BTC left in MCO, which is to say, paid for 4 times over.

That’s not an easy, nor very objective process. Should have been a 2.5% scalping position rebalanced/traded at 5% at most, but I gave it a bit more rein. It’s a good project, but still “on paper” only, so I’ll be cautious now with the gains.

As mentioned before in this thread, the rules for more “investment grade” stuff (what I don’t care to become a bagholder with) in a bear market are to limit them to a 5% swing position (that can also have a 2.5% trading amount added to it). I’ve got us in an intermediate term upswing at present though, so those figures are now doubled. Whenever they get to 30% portfolio percentages, they get “rebalanced”. Also as mentioned before in this thread, LTC is my favorite, should not drop below 25%, and has been as high as 50+%. In the bear market environment of last June-July, it was brought lower.

Not all selling is portfolio balancing based. Myriadcoin was a good example. I did not like what I was seeing technically, and I sold on small spikes to get out with a marginal gain. The same thing happened with Nxt, but only with a remnant position since I had a prior profit of an approximate 4x on 60% of the position.

You also asked about USDT in another post. I had all my fiat equivalent in SBD, not USDT. I share your same concerns about USDT. My position in SBD was also a hedge, reached a 30% of the portfolio position, and, along with LTC (which was being used by many as a hedge too) was intended, as such, to neutralize any move either positive or negative and basically keep me “flat”. Next time I do plan to also use BitUSD as well, and for very short term hedge protection, I will use USDT, but, again, very short term, and with lots of caution.

As I warned you before, it's not really all that “rational” of a process, despite being founded on rational thought and decision making. Flexibility is very important. After all, we’re actually responding to dynamic processes, and that means the input data is constantly changing and we need to adjust accordingly. Nonetheless, the interpretation of that data is subjective, and that’s what turns theoretical objectivity into something that looks a little more like "flying by the seat of your pants” than rational.

That having been said, and to answer another question, this one about what was special about my picks, here we have, aside from the technicals, something that is much more objective. LTC is going to be the BTC replacement, doing what BTC once did (safe storage of wealth), and more – it’s faster and more innovative, and will eventually have a much larger real world use market share than BTC. There’s only 4 times as many LTC as there are BTC, which means it should be valued at around $1,100.00 USD at least! It's the best most undervalued coin out there in my opinion. STEEM is a game changer in blogging, period. BTS is the basis for the first decentralized crypto exchange that I think is very possibly here to stay. SYS has a crypto based market place in the pipeline that looks extremely promising. Those are my big plays. PIVX, XMG, NLG and GRS are more speculative, long shot bets. PIVX is using the masternode concept, XMG has a very interesting PoS code base, and GRS is a GPU mine only coin that really protects the interests of the small players thereby making it one of the few truly decentralized widely distributed coins really available to the masses. GRS could be a major winner one of these days. NLG is similar in a number of ways to GRS, and in spite of being aimed chiefly at the Netherlands, could gain worldwide acceptance just as the Swiss Franc has. And just like LTC, they're all either undervalued or extremely undervalued!

That’s a generalized summary of the fundamentals, but they also need to be backed by positive assessments of the dev teams, future plans, user adoption, market acceptance, etc., so there's obviously lots more that goes into it. Then, when you see big money going after the same names, that helps to firm up decision making. All these markets trade very technically – the opposite of emotional markets – meaning professionals are highly involved. All in all, we’ve got great technicals combined with great fundamentals in all of these coins, and I would not be bothered in the least if I had to become a temporary bagholder and wait a year instead of a couple of months to reach targets with any of them. As I’ve said before in this thread, the ultimate question I ask myself about any investment is if I would mind becoming a bagholder at the price I’m paying. If the answer is yes, then I don’t go there.

Hope this has helped to answer some of your questions. Do take the time to study the thread. I’m certain it will be worth every bit of your time. And don’t hesitate to ask more questions or even for clarification. It’s good for me to keep the wheels spinning!


Sold around 60% of my remaining MCO.


https://i.imgur.com/xYzS9l8.jpg

It'll probably move higher now.  

[HR]

Sold a 1/3 of what was left of MCO overnight for .00585.

1600 bucks are 1600 bucks. 

BTW, in USD terms, MCO was a realized 7x for the portfolio. I could care less if it keeps going higher.    Still got a bit more to sell, and it'll come back down sooner or later. 

[Subbeh]

And remember, don't chase! Be patient. Nothing goes anywhere in a straight line. There will be a major correction! It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that this is the time to be taking profits, NOT buying. Also remember that Alts are ultimately valued in BTC - this is without a doubt speculation in BOTH Alts and BTC, and when BTC heads south, so will Alts (perhaps not so much in BTC terms, but in USD it will hurt just as much as the drop in BTC - just like they benefited on the way up).

Firstly, thanks again for sharing your thoughts with us!

As for the correction, what is your take on this? When do you think this could happen, and are you planning to move everything back to fiat?

[666themeBankster]

I'm new and english is not my first language. Can someone please help me, pm me. I'm not good with computer and it's my first forum i participate. Please mercy

[holepauvre]

Many thanks for your posts. I'm new in this world and it's very interesting to read you.
I have a small question, do you leave your altcoins on the exchange or do you always send to wallets ?

[KnightElite]

Perhaps not exactly "trading", but it just might be one of the shortest time frame investments you'll ever make.  

How about a portfolio competition?

Using today’s price to establish opening position cost basis, the following portfolio has a minimum target of $100,000 (if everything goes wrong) and a maximum (still conservative) target of $1,000,000. (Explaining the reasons why goes beyond the scope of this friendly competition.)

Litecoin (LTC) – 50%
BitShares (BTS) – 10%
STEEM (STEEM) – 10%
Syscoin (SYS) – 10%
Nxt (NXT) – 10%
PIVX (PIVX) – 5%
NEM (XEM) – 5%

We’ll see how it does. Wish me luck!


Full Disclosure: I currently hold many of these issues as “long term” investments (but not all at this exact time since I’m still looking for a better entry on one in particular), and could purchase or sell any, at any time, and/or trade short term as well, with the weighting for this “model” portfolio being somewhat different from my own, where, for example, I am currently overweight LTC, BTS and PIVX.


https://i.imgur.com/MqTGARn.png


Edit: Forgot one very small detail at the time: the price of Bitcoin. It's highlighted on the 5 min chart below.


https://i.imgur.com/00lZU8s.jpg

I think if we invest $10,000 in bitcoin there is a big possibilities that it can become $1 000 000. Bitcoin is really full of potential and it is really good for investment. I expect that in the future we will get our benefits that is from bitcoin.

[Sled]

Perhaps not exactly "trading", but it just might be one of the shortest time frame investments you'll ever make. 

How about a portfolio competition?

Using today’s price to establish opening position cost basis, the following portfolio has a minimum target of $100,000 (if everything goes wrong) and a maximum (still conservative) target of $1,000,000. (Explaining the reasons why goes beyond the scope of this friendly competition.)

Litecoin (LTC) – 50%
BitShares (BTS) – 10%
STEEM (STEEM) – 10%
Syscoin (SYS) – 10%
Nxt (NXT) – 10%
PIVX (PIVX) – 5%
NEM (XEM) – 5%

We’ll see how it does. Wish me luck!


Full Disclosure: I currently hold many of these issues as “long term” investments (but not all at this exact time since I’m still looking for a better entry on one in particular), and could purchase or sell any, at any time, and/or trade short term as well, with the weighting for this “model” portfolio being somewhat different from my own, where, for example, I am currently overweight LTC, BTS and PIVX.


https://i.imgur.com/MqTGARn.png


Edit: Forgot one very small detail at the time: the price of Bitcoin. It's highlighted on the 5 min chart below.


https://i.imgur.com/00lZU8s.jpg

I think if we invest $10,000 in bitcoin there is a big possibilities that it can become $1 000 000. Bitcoin is really full of potential and it is really good for investment. I expect that in the future we will get our benefits that is from bitcoin.

Bitcoin is not the only option for that $10,000 because there is a lot of coins or what we called altcoins to choose from so it is better and advisable to diversify or divide your capital to different coins so you can have a safer porfolio for long term because if you will depend on bitcoin with that $10,000 then you are in a high risk already.

[the-doctor]

I wish you good luck very ambitious but I believe possible. I have some tries but still in learning curve not enough self esteem to make bigger moves. Please update us with progress. Tnx

[Zero1One0]

That having been said, and to answer another question, this one about what was special about my picks, here we have, aside from the technicals, something that is much more objective. LTC is going to be the BTC replacement, doing what BTC once did (safe storage of wealth), and more – it’s faster and more innovative, and will eventually have a much larger real world use market share than BTC. There’s only 4 times as many LTC as there are BTC, which means it should be valued at around $1,100.00 USD at least! It's the best most undervalued coin out there in my opinion. STEEM is a game changer in blogging, period. BTS is the basis for the first decentralized crypto exchange that I think is very possibly here to stay. SYS has a crypto based market place in the pipeline that looks extremely promising. Those are my big plays. PIVX, XMG, NLG and GRS are more speculative, long shot bets. PIVX is using the masternode concept, XMG has a very interesting PoS code base, and GRS is a GPU mine only coin that really protects the interests of the small players thereby making it one of the few truly decentralized widely distributed coins really available to the masses. GRS could be a major winner one of these days. NLG is similar in a number of ways to GRS, and in spite of being aimed chiefly at the Netherlands, could gain worldwide acceptance just as the Swiss Franc has. And just like LTC, they're all either undervalued or extremely undervalued!

That’s a generalized summary of the fundamentals, but they also need to be backed by positive assessments of the dev teams, future plans, user adoption, market acceptance, etc., so there's obviously lots more that goes into it. Then, when you see big money going after the same names, that helps to firm up decision making. All these markets trade very technically – the opposite of emotional markets – meaning professionals are highly involved. All in all, we’ve got great technicals combined with great fundamentals in all of these coins, and I would not be bothered in the least if I had to become a temporary bagholder and wait a year instead of a couple of months to reach targets with any of them. As I’ve said before in this thread, the ultimate question I ask myself about any investment is if I would mind becoming a bagholder at the price I’m paying. If the answer is yes, then I don’t go there.

Hope this has helped to answer some of your questions. Do take the time to study the thread. I’m certain it will be worth every bit of your time. And don’t hesitate to ask more questions or even for clarification. It’s good for me to keep the wheels spinning!


Sold around 60% of my remaining MCO.

It'll probably move higher now.  

Thank you HR for addressing our inquiries. Your insight on fundamentals, analysis of undervalued coins/asset and rebalancing is amazing!
I have a lot more to learn.

I wish you goodluck + strong/patient hands as I will be closely following your progress! 

[Zero1One0]

I think if we invest $10,000 in bitcoin there is a big possibilities that it can become $1 000 000. Bitcoin is really full of potential and it is really good for investment. I expect that in the future we will get our benefits that is from bitcoin.

You are right, I think bitcoin will hit 1M in a few years or so. But how much TIME would have passed to turn 2.5 btc into 1M US$?

Time is the most precious commodity... A luxury most of us do not have...

I think, reaching US$ 1M is not just the goal of OP but reaching it at the soonest possible time and beating the benchmark, which is bitcoin, is one of the main goal as well - (OP HR correct me if I am mistaken).

[CrackedLogic]

I'm not sure if this has been asked before but, how are you valuating your porfolio? Are you using the historical cost of the initial btc you invested with or are you valuating with the btc price changes?

EOD (End Of Day) quotes in BTC, then translated into USD. That way you have both BTC and USD valuations. For the reasons cited many times before in this thread, everything here is current, real time, EOD USD.

The same thing that Coinmarketcap does, just that they do it averaging over all listed exchanges, and I only use Bittrex data.
http://coinmarketcap.com/

Out of curiosity, do you know how much your portfolio is worth based off the original btc price you've entered with? It'll be interesting to see the value without accounting the increase in value of bitcoin. 

[HR]

Closed the MCO position.


https://i.imgur.com/WC8I9vG.jpg

It's traded a 20x off of lows, and an approximate 10x of its averaged ICO price. I'm satisfied.

[JohnDoe3490]

Gl mate! I've enjoyed these posts!

[HR]

And remember, don't chase! Be patient. Nothing goes anywhere in a straight line. There will be a major correction! It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that this is the time to be taking profits, NOT buying. Also remember that Alts are ultimately valued in BTC - this is without a doubt speculation in BOTH Alts and BTC, and when BTC heads south, so will Alts (perhaps not so much in BTC terms, but in USD it will hurt just as much as the drop in BTC - just like they benefited on the way up).

Firstly, thanks again for sharing your thoughts with us!

As for the correction, what is your take on this? When do you think this could happen, and are you planning to move everything back to fiat?

I'm looking for a top in BTC sometime soon. I expect it to be a process (but I could be wrong) where Alts rally while it tops. If this scenario plays out, I will be selling into strength and converting to BitUSD, SBD and USDT (as I said above). I might take a little to fiat as well, but that would be from my personal account and not the model portfolio, and at most it would be 10%. My main target for BTC is the $5,000 to $5,500 range with a $6,500 high end possibility. I also think we're going to see a hefty correction in world stock markets coinciding. All in all, I think the correction could last for months. My goal is to "give back" as little as possible during that time and be positioned to buy back at 80% discounts. Then we'd start working on the million dollar figure. 

[HR]

Many thanks for your posts. I'm new in this world and it's very interesting to read you.
I have a small question, do you leave your altcoins on the exchange or do you always send to wallets ?

Around half is on Bittrex. It’s a good exchange that I can recommend. I’ve never had a problem with them. Most of my LTC is in my own wallet off exchange. STEEM and BTS are also in their own wallets.

The next time I get long (after the correction I think is due) I will be moving as much as possible to their own wallets since I think we'll be looking at a much longer upswing cycle then that could last years.

[HR]

I think if we invest $10,000 in bitcoin there is a big possibilities that it can become $1 000 000. Bitcoin is really full of potential and it is really good for investment. I expect that in the future we will get our benefits that is from bitcoin.

You are right, I think bitcoin will hit 1M in a few years or so. But how much TIME would have passed to turn 2.5 btc into 1M US$?

Time is the most precious commodity... A luxury most of us do not have...

I think, reaching US$ 1M is not just the goal of OP but reaching it at the soonest possible time and beating the benchmark, which is bitcoin, is one of the main goal as well - (OP HR correct me if I am mistaken).

Beating the benchmark is definite. In fact, I want to SMASH the benchmark. What that figure will eventually look like is anyone's guess right now, but if we start seeing some major fiat inflation that should be the eventual outcome of worldwide QE, those $300,000 figures for BTC might not be that far fetched. Imagine what smashing that would look like! One million is really a base figure assuming that the USD, EUR, JPY, etc. hold their current values. I don't place very good odds on that. And that brings me back to where I started from: crypto is not only the best investment currently available to mankind, it's also the best hedge against fiat depreciation!

Time is another deal completely. Patience is a virtue here - I strongly believe in taking what the market gives you and never projecting one's own desires. The market will dictate those terms, but I expect that 5 years would be the outside limit for max returns.

[HR]

I'm not sure if this has been asked before but, how are you valuating your porfolio? Are you using the historical cost of the initial btc you invested with or are you valuating with the btc price changes?

EOD (End Of Day) quotes in BTC, then translated into USD. That way you have both BTC and USD valuations. For the reasons cited many times before in this thread, everything here is current, real time, EOD USD.

The same thing that Coinmarketcap does, just that they do it averaging over all listed exchanges, and I only use Bittrex data.
http://coinmarketcap.com/

Out of curiosity, do you know how much your portfolio is worth based off the original btc price you've entered with? It'll be interesting to see the value without accounting the increase in value of bitcoin.  

No idea. There's been tons of buying and selling since and it would be extremely laborious to make that calculation, not to mention having little to no value in and of itself. Something easier to calculate is growth in BTC itself (which is off its highs as one might imagine), but again, the bottom line is USD - still the world's reserve currency.

[dumbtool45]

So as I see no one is actual asking, how much is now your portofolio worth? I think this should a nice way to promote what you did at this moment.

If you are having success maybe other people will come and will invest money into you.

Thank you