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Author Topic: That's it, I've lost hope in the future of crypto currencies...  (Read 4069 times)
anderl
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May 03, 2013, 08:37:55 PM
 #61

That is like saying adding another stock to the stock market will dilute the ones already there and ruin the credibility of the others. For every Worldcom and Enron there are other stocks that have more trusted and have true value.  Maybe what we need is a market of sound analysts that can weed out the fly by nights from the more legitimate coins.  But for that you need to have a more mature market. 

Welcome to the days of the bucket shops!  If you ever get a chance to read Reminiscence of a Stock Market Operator please do so.  You will perfectly understand what is going on right now in the cryptocurrency market. 

I haven't read the book, however I want to give my opinion about your analogy.

The stock market with real companies is a bit different from cryptos, since they are real companies making profits, other companies do not dilute the value, but decisions, news, incoming laws, future plans do... though this is only my opinion, I'm not very educated on the subject

Are you saying that one of the companies that are operating in the cryptocurrency market are real.  We'll that is good then mtGox doesn't have to be worried about that lawsuit since they are imaginary.  

yes the companies are real but the value we place on their shares (coins) is arbitrary.  We make up those numbers based on a number of metric we feel are important.  How is that any different here?

New companies DO dilute the value of other companies IN the MARKET.  If I create a new company and start mining gold well that is gold that the other companies cannot mine.  That means they have less opportunity because I've prevented from capturing it in this mine.  As a result my value goes up against theirs.  They potential value goes down.  If there was a single company mining all gold then they would have all the value and their shares would be worth the same as the total market cap of the industry.

Bitcoiners are upset because the total market value of the cryptocurrency market is not growing as fast as the number of currencies are as a result Bitcoin value is distributed to other currencies.  Eventually they will all reach parity but not without some massive price swings.  This is all healthy market action in a free market system.  Its just that some early adopters were not smart enough to anticipate it.

And there is a quote about never staying married to a stock.  I think it holds true here.  Never marry a coin.
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AlexMerced
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May 03, 2013, 08:39:00 PM
 #62

I haven't read the book, however I want to give my opinion about your analogy.

The stock market with real companies is a bit different from cryptos, since they are real companies making profits, other companies do not dilute the value, but decisions, news, incoming laws, future plans do... though this is only my opinion, I'm not very educated on the subject

Ymer, you're not so bad after all.  This is another 100% on lock explanation.

The market for cryptos currently is very much like real currency markets or pharmaceutical stock which is a load of speculation trying to make money on short pops in the price while a few true believers hold long term hoping the projects actually meet completion.

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May 03, 2013, 08:43:00 PM
 #63

That is like saying adding another stock to the stock market will dilute the ones already there and ruin the credibility of the others. For every Worldcom and Enron there are other stocks that have more trusted and have true value.  Maybe what we need is a market of sound analysts that can weed out the fly by nights from the more legitimate coins.  But for that you need to have a more mature market. 

Welcome to the days of the bucket shops!  If you ever get a chance to read Reminiscence of a Stock Market Operator please do so.  You will perfectly understand what is going on right now in the cryptocurrency market. 

I haven't read the book, however I want to give my opinion about your analogy.

The stock market with real companies is a bit different from cryptos, since they are real companies making profits, other companies do not dilute the value, but decisions, news, incoming laws, future plans do... though this is only my opinion, I'm not very educated on the subject

Are you saying that one of the companies that are operating in the cryptocurrency market are real.  We'll that is good then mtGox doesn't have to be worried about that lawsuit since they are imaginary.  

yes the companies are real but the value we place on their shares (coins) is arbitrary.  We make up those numbers based on a number of metric we feel are important.  How is that any different here?

New companies DO dilute the value of other companies IN the MARKET.  If I create a new company and start mining gold well that is gold that the other companies cannot mine.  That means they have less opportunity because I've prevented from capturing it in this mine.  As a result my value goes up against theirs.  They potential value goes down.  If there was a single company mining all gold then they would have all the value and their shares would be worth the same as the total market cap of the industry.

Bitcoiners are upset because the total market value of the cryptocurrency market is not growing as fast as the number of currencies are as a result Bitcoin value is distributed to other currencies.  Eventually they will all reach parity but not without some massive price swings.  This is all healthy market action in a free market system.  Its just that some early adopters were not smart enough to anticipate it.

And there is a quote about never staying married to a stock.  I think it holds true here.  Never marry a coin.

also companies compete for the same capital, a dollar that buys one share stock cannot buy another, but with the crypto bubble of 2013 is unqiue in two ways:

- What being crowded out is computing power... we're probably going to cause a massive brownout when all is said and done, lol
- When the bubble pops most of what people will lose is BTC, since BTC is the main way of buying alt coins so it won't be as big a deal to the world as when people see massive drops in their domestic currency (won't have a huge effect on any nations banking system)
- The end result will just be a bunch of bitter speculators who spent to much money on GPUs who now find themselves with no more BTC and bunch of altcoin worth less then they paid for.
- But like other bubbles a few companies do survive and prove their worth

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May 03, 2013, 08:44:19 PM
 #64

I welcome all new copycoins that will pull hashing away from the Litecoin network, so that I can get more Litecoins.

Indeed, I cant help feeling the same way. I am not afraid that these new alts will destroy any confidence in cryptos att all. Just check the wiki and look for dead coins. There is plenty of them and more to come.
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May 03, 2013, 08:46:31 PM
 #65

Indeed, I cant help feeling the same way. I am not afraid that these new alts will destroy any confidence in cryptos att all. Just check the wiki and look for dead coins. There is plenty of them and more to come.

Hopefuly this is the case, but my gut says it won't Sad
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May 03, 2013, 08:47:00 PM
 #66

I haven't read the book, however I want to give my opinion about your analogy.

The stock market with real companies is a bit different from cryptos, since they are real companies making profits, other companies do not dilute the value, but decisions, news, incoming laws, future plans do... though this is only my opinion, I'm not very educated on the subject

Ymer, you're not so bad after all.  This is another 100% on lock explanation.

The market for cryptos currently is very much like real currency markets or pharmaceutical stock which is a load of speculation trying to make money on short pops in the price while a few true believers hold long term hoping the projects actually meet completion.

Again, stop! You make too much sense for this board.

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May 03, 2013, 08:48:21 PM
 #67

This phase of altcoin saturation I see being short lived ,I'm not endorsing this next point but I feel it's a direction we might be headed - different crypto coins will become location-centric as we live in a world of boarders a certain small number of crypto coins with very similar characteristics will be favoured based on where you live. Rather than a particular coins features .

I think it might be more than that.  Since this is digital its more than just location based.  Ideas like 4chan, lolcats, facebook transend physical locations.  There are location based ideas and concepts like miko miko that do not catch on everywhere.  Some people have ideologies that do not jive with others and they will not put money toward it.  I think cryptos are the future but not in their current state.  I think that idea based coins are the next great wave of cryptos, especially when they are connected to folding projects, that benefit society.

This is all moving forward towards the new future where we invest in ideas and concepts to move them forward into the public space and where financial reward comes from investing in ideas in more abstract ways like digital currency.  We already do it physically with lobbying politicians to get an agenda to move forward.  

What if a coin could be spawned to move an idea forward.  A lower taxes coin where 2% of the node fees goes to lobbying a politician to change his vote.  It means people could compete against the corporations.  Or a coin that cures breast cancer?  Dilutive to the market yes because right now the market is small but in the coming years the market will be massive.  A few billion will pale in comparison the the hundreds of trillions it can be in the coming decades.
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May 03, 2013, 08:54:50 PM
 #68


also companies compete for the same capital, a dollar that buys one share stock cannot buy another, but with the crypto bubble of 2013 is unqiue in two ways:

- What being crowded out is computing power... we're probably going to cause a massive brownout when all is said and done, lol
- When the bubble pops most of what people will lose is BTC, since BTC is the main way of buying alt coins so it won't be as big a deal to the world as when people see massive drops in their domestic currency (won't have a huge effect on any nations banking system)
- The end result will just be a bunch of bitter speculators who spent to much money on GPUs who now find themselves with no more BTC and bunch of altcoin worth less then they paid for.
- But like other bubbles a few companies do survive and prove their worth

Well said.  The market is smaller that these people realize.  I believe it is a fraction of its true potential.  I don't thing we are near the brownout stage.  Not enough people in the masses know about it yet.  People I work with are more put off by it at this stage.  After all it is only 3+ years old.  Its when the disinterested masses jump in is when it really starts producing brown outs.  How many companies produce hardware that can mine?  When they number in the tens of dozens is when I'll worry about a real bubble.

You are right its just a bunch of speculators but mostly ideologists.  The Teslas of the era.  Its still the age of innovation in cryptocurrencies and we have some time before the real competition begins.
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May 03, 2013, 08:55:10 PM
 #69

3. You can make a decent ammount of BTC using said shitcoins if you are smart, and if you are In-the-Know you can hoard a lot of them.
4. This will eventually cause BTC to lose legitimacy.

No it won't.  That's a fantastic leap.

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May 03, 2013, 09:05:51 PM
 #70


also companies compete for the same capital, a dollar that buys one share stock cannot buy another, but with the crypto bubble of 2013 is unqiue in two ways:

- What being crowded out is computing power... we're probably going to cause a massive brownout when all is said and done, lol
- When the bubble pops most of what people will lose is BTC, since BTC is the main way of buying alt coins so it won't be as big a deal to the world as when people see massive drops in their domestic currency (won't have a huge effect on any nations banking system)
- The end result will just be a bunch of bitter speculators who spent to much money on GPUs who now find themselves with no more BTC and bunch of altcoin worth less then they paid for.
- But like other bubbles a few companies do survive and prove their worth

Well said.  The market is smaller that these people realize.  I believe it is a fraction of its true potential.  I don't thing we are near the brownout stage.  Not enough people in the masses know about it yet.  People I work with are more put off by it at this stage.  After all it is only 3+ years old.  Its when the disinterested masses jump in is when it really starts producing brown outs.  How many companies produce hardware that can mine?  When they number in the tens of dozens is when I'll worry about a real bubble.

You are right its just a bunch of speculators but mostly ideologists.  The Teslas of the era.  Its still the age of innovation in cryptocurrencies and we have some time before the real competition begins.

by the time the masses really jump into cryptocurrencies, mining won't be as relevant. The masses will jump into when they really need it. Like if lady gaga did a tour that can only be paid for in Bitcoin the price would skyrocket.

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May 03, 2013, 09:09:50 PM
 #71

Hopefully it will mostly be Ripple clones by then, mining almost obsolete, an obscure geek cult thing they do because of some intrinsic loner aversion to "consensus" or something. Tongue

(But, BTC IOUs will be worth a lot nonetheless hahaha. Smiley)

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ymer (OP)
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May 03, 2013, 09:29:46 PM
 #72

Hopefully it will mostly be Ripple clones by then, mining almost obsolete, an obscure geek cult thing they do because of some intrinsic loner aversion to "consensus" or something. Tongue

(But, BTC IOUs will be worth a lot nonetheless hahaha. Smiley)

-MarkM-


Btw how do you think Ripple role affects cryptos, is it positive or negative?
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May 03, 2013, 11:43:48 PM
 #73

 I agree with everything the OP said. Cryptocurrency is supposed to be a way to have a currency free of government control and regulation that can be used legitimately to buy and sell. This whole clone a coin thing going on now is nothing more then people trying to get rich quick quick and then move on. The greed is killing cryptocurrency.

Can someone who has the skills (I'm not a coder) finally make a coin creation tool kit?

I'm thinking of something where you just have enter Name, Blocktime, Coins per block, Halving each x Blocks, Sha- or Scrypt Mining press enter and there is your very own Altcoin.

Something like this would hopefully show even the last guy the ridiculousness of this.

Is this feasible? Should we collect a bounty for this?

Someone should really do this, it might help kill this alt-coin fad that is destroying legitimate cryptocurrency.
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May 03, 2013, 11:47:20 PM
 #74

I saw someone said will do it, but would take some time I guess.

On the other hand, it looks easy to folk the coins, just change the names etc, and there are some parameters to change to make it specififc.

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May 04, 2013, 12:03:53 AM
 #75

Is anybody working on a real new alt coin that will bring something new and valuable to the table?

I'm just a simple guy swimming in a sea of sharks.
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May 04, 2013, 12:06:40 AM
 #76

I was wrong about Solidcoin and Fairbrix being the only actually dead altcoins.

I fired up fairbrix-qt, got a connection, and caught up on the blockchain.

It has still been running out there.

It was just a fairbrixd I could not compile, because the thing was built using multicoin-qt, and such a hacked up version of multicoin-qt that it does not use a proper full config file with the genesis block and everything in the config file so its config was not one you could simply use with standard multicoind to run a daemon for it.

Since it makes no sense to have to maintain an open connection from a desktop box running a GUI-server (X server for example) just so you can run a coin on a headless server I had simply given up on fairbrix long long long ago.

But evidently, like BBQcoin, it has actually been out there quietly humming along, although I do not know yet whether it has been serving as a haven for CPU miners because the GUI does not seem to show the current difficulty.

So now it is down to Solidcoin being the only actually-dead coin, but hey, maybe that is not really dead either?

So no, coins do not, in general ever die. Any that do actually manage to die are very rare exceptions.

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ymer (OP)
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May 04, 2013, 12:09:19 AM
 #77

Well from the time that I made this thread till now I just realized that I will have to already switch from FTC to BTB, it's the most profitable now.  Roll Eyes
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May 04, 2013, 12:12:46 AM
 #78

I saw someone said will do it, but would take some time I guess.

On the other hand, it looks easy to folk the coins, just change the names etc, and there are some parameters to change to make it specififc.

Search for "multicoin".

You set everything in the config file, even the genesis block goes in the config file.

So the same executable can run "any" coin simply by adjusting the config file contents.

No more having to compile separate executables for each coin, no more having to trust yet another builder/packager of executables. Trust the packager of your multicoin executable and just switch config files to switch coins.

-MarkM-

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May 04, 2013, 12:23:38 AM
 #79

I saw someone said will do it, but would take some time I guess.

On the other hand, it looks easy to folk the coins, just change the names etc, and there are some parameters to change to make it specififc.

Search for "multicoin".

You set everything in the config file, even the genesis block goes in the config file.

So the same executable can run "any" coin simply by adjusting the config file contents.

No more having to compile separate executables for each coin, no more having to trust yet another builder/packager of executables. Trust the packager of your multicoin executable and just switch config files to switch coins.

-MarkM-


I'm trying to compile MultiCoin for Windows but the link to the dependency files no longer works, and I can't find any pre-existing up to date windows binaries, can anyone help?

Without the dependency files and I can't compile

WIthout a binary I can't install

so sad, I need it to generate genesis block, seems like the easiest way to do so.

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May 04, 2013, 12:54:40 AM
 #80

I'll just mine for the money now, not for trying to improve and make the cryptocoin concept be a new way of making payments and get out of the Fiat Scam.

The reason is that we're getting a flood of shtcoins ruining the show. First example is Feathercoin, it brings nothing new to the table but it had a huge and very smart marketing campaign along with alliances like BTC-e to get a lot of profit in a short time, now I can see the same being done with CHN (CNC) and I guess this is going to be an ongoing trend.

The problem with this "alt coins" is that they are derailing the original purpose of BTC and now it's just a speculation game with tulips. In a few years we will have a flood of cryptos with a lot of volume, more and more altcoins with good planning and marketing (Shills on this forum) which will eventually end in serious coins like BTC and LTC on the same level as these jokecoins.

Anyway right now I'm mining FTC, will flip them for profit then ride the next train until all this fad dies off.

Thank you for ruining the game phaggots.  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

All that, and you newb to b!tch about Novacoins.   Cheesy



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