Bitcoin Holders Must Prepare For Mass Adoption

[bobdude17]

(If you don't care about China, read the next post down.)

Please for a moment put away your bull/bear leanings and try to consider the following possibilities with an open mind.

I don't think you all understand the gravity of what China just did.
As in - officials in Washington DC are having frantic closed door meetings right now.

As you probably know, this special was aired on China Central Television(CCTV). This is a state-sponsored, state-censored TV channel, as in the main one. This means that this program was approved by the Chinese government. And not like a shrug-your-shoulders-eh-sounds-newsworthy kind of approval either. This was not just informative, it was positive. Yes, I know at end it mentioned the volatility of the market and the risk investors would take, but this is not negative, it actually makes far more sense to include this information if your trying to entice your people to buy into the idea:

     * People would discover the volatility anyway, so telling them beforehand shows that the government has researched the risks and recommends it anyway. More trust generated.

     *  Strong Chinese gambling culture, this early market volatility and get rich quick possibilities will attract speculators. And if mining WoW gold can catch on like wildfire...

    * Most all of the program was dedicated to the different positive aspects of Bitcoin,  showing screenshots of price graphs going up, with the risks and negatives acting only like a teaser at the end.

    * The population would be less likely to trust a course of action the government said was perfect. They do think for themselves you know. Stop acting like Chinese people are a bunch of lemmings that don't even need to be coerced into control like our governments do with us.


So let's reclassify the action that happened. This was not "another country did a piece looking at Bitcoin". This was a a piece of propaganda(surprisingly accurate propaganda) developed by the Chinese government aimed at giving the Chinese people a positive impression of something called Bitcoin. Nothing wrong with that.
It is, however, shocking. If your were to tell me last week that a government had produced a positive piece on Bitcoin, literally the last country on Earth I would have guessed would have been China.
There is a lot more we can infer from the fact that Bitcoin was cast in a positive light. This means obviously the they researched it extremely in depth, in far more detail than was shown in the video. There is just simply no chance of a Chinese state-run channel taking such a controversial subject lightly. It means they determined the idea of Bitcoin itself as valid. It means they found the lack of Bitcoin infrastructure to be not enough of a deterrent, they must realize they could easily build it themselves. And it means that their freakin super Spartan hacker army found Bitcoin secure.
They still could have easily painted Bitcoin in a negative light, but they didn't. Why?

     * Despite being contrary to their apparent political beliefs, they might have seen Bitcoin as unstoppable in the future. A logical product of the ever advancing Information Age, and simply decided to adapt rather fight it.
    
     * America has the largest economy. America's largest export is the dollar. China hates trading in dollars with other countries(Iranian oil for example) and sees an opportunity to threaten the domination of the dollar as the world reserve currency. This in itself carries the possibility of turning China into the world's #1 economy. Makes backing Bitcoin very worth the risk.

     * It is early in the game still. Look at the very early adopter individuals of Bitcoin compared to most of us. Now imagine what an early-adopter-government will look like to the rest of the world.

     * Maybe they believe Bitcoin will actually make the world a better place. Hell, you never know.



So for whatever the reason, they aired it. Very intentionally. And they knew the US Government would find out, and they didn't care that the US Government would find out. Very important. The US and China have been in a military, intelligence, economical, ideological, and technological Cold War for a while now. They watch each other's every move, and every action has meaning. That's a piece being moved on the chessboard. Like a big one.
So what happens now?
Please consider effect of such an endorsement will have on the rest of the nations of the world. If Denmark or Argentina gave Bitcoin it's approval, that would be interesting/exciting. This is China. The second-largest economy on earth. Bitcoin is often compared to gold. China moving on Bitcoin will trigger an international gold rush.
I have no freaking clue how Washington is going to react to this. I would bet that this caught the CIA and everyone else by surprise. But I have no doubts at all that they are arguing about it in oak furnished offices right now. This could end up affecting the stability of the American empire.

[1714659946]

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[1714659946]

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[bobdude17]

In light of all this news, Bitcoin holders must prepare for the possibility of mass adoption. With China triggering the international gold rush and most likely engineering upcoming Bitcoin infrastructure, members of this community are likely to become very rich, very soon.
I as well, would not be surprised to reach 300k per coin by the end of this year. Perhaps higher. Gold rush, exponential adoption.
Cool, right? Very!

However this brings up the price of the success we have all been fervently wishing for. We simply have way too many people who don't understand how rich they are about to be, congregating in this forum. And we will all become targets. I am not being melodramatic, it would just be a fact.
A gold rush of Bitcoin would practically bring in a golden age of hacking.
Where have your IPs been stored? Where on the internet have you been identified? It would be so easy for an organization of hackers to write up a hit list of people in this forum, priority given to early registration, and start up the machine.
I don't know of abuses in the past of registering on this forum TOR, but for what may soon happen, it is absolutely ludicrous not be able to use this board with the TOR anonymous browser. This is simply too much money in one place not being intelligently protected. This needs to change as soon as possible.

Physical security. Not often thought about seriously, I know. But I think it needs to be. There is a fundamental difference in security between getting rich off Bitcoin overnight and say winning the lottery overnight. The lottery winner would have his winnings in a bank.
Generally rich people aren't strategically physically robbed for this reason. Just because a guy has a ton of stocks and bonds, and is worth a whole bunch of money doesn't mean that putting a gun to his face is going to get an attacker much more than his wallet.
This is why if Bitcoin succeeds, it doesn't mean that banks are going to die, just that their roles will change.

Now imagine that someone on the internet believes you to be an early adopter. Let's say a hacker group broke into Moneygram and sold the home addresses of people paying cash to Bitinstant during certain dates, IPs from bitcointalk.org etc...Your security is lax, and he tracks down where you live. What won't he/they do if they think you are holding the information to some private codes worth 60 million dollars... yeah
Let me be clear: it doesn't matter how good and secure your cold storage wallets are if there is man with a pistol barrel to your daughter's head.
The attacker would not have bothered with the lotto winner because it's not like he can march him into the bank at gunpoint and have him make a withdrawal.
And with early adopters holding information to 60 million dollars worth of untraceable digital cash, it is not absurd to think you could attract the professional-James-Bond-ninja-operative breed of criminals to your home.
I would honestly recommend that future Bitcoin Summits be held in undisclosed locations with the security element considered. The delegates are so many eggs in one basket together that such an opportune situation could tempt some pretty maniacal schemes.



Whether you believe me or not, whether you believe mass adoption is close at hand or not, I you urge to recognize that it could be, and to plan accordingly. Use TOR, use TORMail, keep mindful of your semi public internet presence and what others know of you and Bitcoin. Plan ahead and you will truly be able to enjoy your wealth with more peace of mind.





Anyway, thanks for reading, whether you agree or not I hope to encourage discussion. The world is changing fast and there's no place I'd rather be to watch it all unfold. Happy to be on the ride with all of you.

[bobdude17]

FAQ

I'll answer common questions that come up, to prevent double posting, but feel free to address my answers if you want.
I will be moderating this discussion, so please stay on topic.
Please don't take it personally if I delete your post, just keeping everything streamlined.






1.

Not everything played on CCTV is a government propaganda plot.

I very much agree. But everything played with a positive spin on CCTV is at least in line with government ideals. I don't think there is any way a 30 minute special endorsing such a disruptive technology with large political ramifications would escape the notice of the Chinese government during it's production. Not on it's own mouthpiece channel. That would be very sloppy, very unlike China. Logical evidence supports this conclusion more than supporting the idea that this program slipped through the cracks and got broadcast to the majority of Chinese citizens spontaneously.
We westerners have a kind of attitude that things just "kind of come on TV", I don't think that is the case here. I think there is good reason to conclude this was produced with intent, under direction of the top levels of government.



2.

OP, I think what you're saying is possible. But at this point, simply not probable

Everything about Bitcoin, from its orgins to its markets, have been "not probable". I expect its future to be even more so.

[bitleif]

As in - officials in Washington DC are having frantic closed door meetings right now.

Why, just because you say so? You have absolutely zero evidence to back that up.

As you probably know, this special was aired on China Central Television(CCTV). This is a state-sponsored, state-censored TV channel, as in the main one.

Just because it's state sponsored and censored, doesn't mean EVERY word coming out of their mouths is a large-scale propaganda event. Is the weather report an indicator of future policy too?

This might means bitcoin isn't ILLEGAL in China, but that's about it. I think anything else is largely wishful thinking on your part. It's not a bearish sign but you're blowing it way out of proportion.

[blackreplica]

OP, I think what you're saying is possible. But at this point, simply not probable

Realistically I think the real truth is that bitcoin is not perceived in any kind of meaningful light in the eyes of the chinese govt. CCTV reporting bitcoin's rise and fall, to the chinese top dogs, at least, probably carry about as much significance as a report on the discovery of a new breed of turtle: mildly interesting, but hardly significant.

What we can expect, however, is a great deal of increased exposure, which, if it translate to larger adoption numbers, should see a mid term price increase in the BTC/CNY exchange rate (and it's consequent effect on the exchange rate everywhere else)

But as far as China making a concerted effort to corner the entire bitcoin currency market in an attempt to reduce USD domination...well, I'm not so sure

However, as a holder of a not insignificant amount of BTC

[bobdude17]

As in - officials in Washington DC are having frantic closed door meetings right now.

Why, just because you say so? You have absolutely zero evidence to back that up.

That's why they are close door meetings.

Just because it's state sponsored and censored, doesn't mean EVERY word coming out of their mouths is a large-scale propaganda event.

Of course, just not this subject. I said nothing about the rest of the TV because I know nothing about it.

Realistically I think the real truth is that bitcoin is not perceived in any kind of meaningful light in the eyes of the chinese govt. CCTV reporting bitcoin's rise and fall, to the chinese top dogs, at least, probably carry about as much significance as a report on the discovery of a new breed of turtle: mildly interesting, but hardly significant.

You are assuming a lower level, I am saying it came top down.




passing out

[romerun]

assuming Satoshi is US Gov and holding roughly 2% of btc, China just took the bait to trap anyone trying to flee from US currency.

[SAQ]

You have a sweet way of taking something fairly big to beyond the universe hahaha

It is big news, yes, but not 300k by the end of the year news. That would mean that bitcoins has a market cap of 330 trillion. That's not delusional, its funny lol.

1k by the end of the year, yes. China and the chinese people are not going to drop everything tomorrow and put all their money on bitcoins. It is going to be a gradual, slow, taking at least a decade process, until bitcoins becomes as mainstream as facebook.

[Cyberdyne]

As you probably know, this special was aired on China Central Television(CCTV).

Um, a link to whatever you're talking about would be nice. Your post currently has no context for me.

[maxmint]

As you probably know, this special was aired on China Central Television(CCTV).

Um, a link to whatever you're talking about would be nice. Your post currently has no context for me.

This is the video: http://tv.cntv.cn/video/C10329/e5ee4fe9a62b4b24b1080327faaafcb7
And google translation: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=194865.msg2024867#msg2024867

[rpietila]

Is this an rpietila alt?

No, this is the sixth person in the world who is taking $300k seriously. The number is increasing quite fast.

But no need to be scared of intelligent hackers. They already have bitcoins, and even a thief gets lazy after receiving million$ in an honest way.

[yolo2222]

+1

I fully agree with the OP.

Thanks for the post.




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fdadZ_KrZVw

[michaelGedi]

OP you are way too over excited about this...

The world has much bigger issues to worry about than Bitcoin right now for governments.

I'm not going to go into detail about all of this... time will tell.


Re security. Some valid points there in the long term.

But let's take South America for example. Kidnappings do happen on a regular basis for quick cash.

Security guards families are taken hostage in order to the get the keys to the rich houses in gated communities... then money is stolen. This is a frequent occurence. The type of organised crime you are talking about will do better making profits elsewhere. Someone can hold a gun to your daughter's head and make you go to the bank and get cash out... they don't need to ask for your bitcoin keys!

and

professional-James-Bond-ninja-operative breed of criminals

..... well, that's where your perspective becomes a bit laughable... You watch too many movies clearly


don't get me wrong, bitcoin could be huge, but it also could not. You sound like you are trying to validate your involvement in it without staying rational

[John (John K.)]

As you probably know, this special was aired on China Central Television(CCTV).

Um, a link to whatever you're talking about would be nice. Your post currently has no context for me.

This is the video: http://tv.cntv.cn/video/C10329/e5ee4fe9a62b4b24b1080327faaafcb7
And google translation: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=194865.msg2024867#msg2024867

I read (and write Chinese) and I agree that the news are mostly positive - no drugs/weapons connotations for example. They even interviewed high-ranking bank officers and a Bitcoin hedge fund manager in China about this, and the fund manager says he's been getting overwhelming enquiries from investors/businessmen interested in Bitcoin.

I'm still trying to squeeze some time out so that I can do a sub on this. 

[daviducsb]

I think yours is an interesting conjecture but could just as well be a piece done by some mid-level journalist that slid by without much ado. China is probably not as controlled as you are implying. Ie. everything shown on Chinese TV is not Chinese government propaganda per se.

[John (John K.)]

I think yours is an interesting conjecture but could just as well be a piece done by some mid-level journalist that slid by without much ado. China is probably not as controlled as you are implying. Ie. everything shown on Chinese TV is not Chinese government propaganda per se.

The show is hosted by a famous program there - '经济半小时' (literal: Economics in half an hour). I'd say they did a ton of research on the issue (even going as far as to introduce Avalon, ASICMiner and other companies in China), and didn't brush off the entire idea as a bubble or anything.

[yolo2222]

I think yours is an interesting conjecture but could just as well be a piece done by some mid-level journalist that slid by without much ado. China is probably not as controlled as you are implying. Ie. everything shown on Chinese TV is not Chinese government propaganda per se.

Ofcourse its not all propaganda- China is not N. Korea... some people in the West tend to forget that from time to time it seems.



Anyways, you can be sure that the content is checked before it goes live....If this is good or bad you can choose by yourself.
I support it to a certain extend.




link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Television_in_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China

[kiko]

If a week ago you had told me I had to choose between:

A: 30 minute news segment on Chinese TV.
B: Several of the biggest tech VC's including Ashton Kutcher and Kevin Rose declaring an interest in bitcoin; plus 2 of the world's most prominent investors name dropping it in their research notes/meetings.

I know which one I would choose, the Chinese can read it on-line just like the rest of the world.

Fortunately I didn't have to make that choice.

Please keep all arms and legs inside the vehicle...

[virtualmaster]

psh mass adoption, no one cares to use bitcoin for anything other than speculation.

Speculation is only for short term. Must people invest long term in bitcoin.
A couple of important issues will happen during this summer:
- a lot of bitcoin ATMs will be installed
- some new services and shops will adopt bitcoin
- a bitcoin debit card will come out
But during the summer the prices will remain constant or rise very slowly because many people will spend bitcoins during the vacation.
In September bitcoin users must refill their reserves and a huge amount of new users will try to get a piece of bitcoin so the prices will rise like never before.

[tvbcof]

I think yours is an interesting conjecture but could just as well be a piece done by some mid-level journalist that slid by without much ado. China is probably not as controlled as you are implying. Ie. everything shown on Chinese TV is not Chinese government propaganda per se.

The show is hosted by a famous program there - '经济半小时' (literal: Economics in half an hour). I'd say they did a ton of research on the issue (even going as far as to introduce Avalon, ASICMiner and other companies in China), and didn't brush off the entire idea as a bubble or anything.

Thx for your analysis (and for changing your screen name to something which doesn't make one think you are a clownish adolescent until proven otherwise...)

I try to understand China as best I can as they are obviously major players on the world stage and destined to become more so.  This story appearing as it does where it does is indeed a very interesting development.  I'm not sure that I can attach any particular significance to it in a high confidence way just yet.  But it is certainly a development worth watching.

It is tempting to write off the OP's rosy analysis as becoming invalid since we have yet to see a sharp rise in BTC valuations (in light of the infamous volatility.)  But I remember back to when I became actively interested and chose a number of BTC I wished to control.  It still took me some number of weeks to understand the in's and out's of various systems needed to acquire BTC.  So, if this story opens up a flood of demand, I would not necessarily expect it to hit for a few weeks.

It is also worth note that Bitcoin is nothing new in Asia.  A certain fraction of those who were most pre-disposed to get in probably did so some time ago.