Bitcoin Holders Must Prepare For Mass Adoption

[axus]

I'd imagine Chinese censors saw it as a pro-China piece: Avalon coming first to market, Bitcoin's ability to replace USD as the world's trading currency.  Being a censor doesn't sound like a high-intelligence job; check the list that someone else gave you, and when in doubt, censor. 

I wonder what they are talking about on the Chinese-language version of bitcointalk, and if they get censored.

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[Qwedcxza1]

Re security. Some valid points there in the long term.

But let's take South America for example. Kidnappings do happen on a regular basis for quick cash.

Security guards families are taken hostage in order to the get the keys to the rich houses in gated communities... then money is stolen. This is a frequent occurence. The type of organised crime you are talking about will do better making profits elsewhere. Someone can hold a gun to your daughter's head and make you go to the bank and get cash out... they don't need to ask for your bitcoin keys!

and

professional-James-Bond-ninja-operative breed of criminals

..... well, that's where your perspective becomes a bit laughable... You watch too many movies clearly

There's a few different topics addressed in this post but I wanted to comment on the security issue. Anyone who thinks that having instant access to a huge some of money that is easily transferable and pretty much untraceable wouldn't make you a target for violent criminals is being pretty naive. In 'first world' countries such as USA or UK people will commit violent armed robberies in broad daylight in banks for possible rewards of tens of thousands of dollars. They would definitely prefer to rob less well protected individuals for greater sums. It's not only South America where things like this occur.
 I mentioned this in the 'how many bitcoins have you got' thread and suggested a time delay wallet similar to the safes in banks. On reflection this might just result in you being held by the violent criminals for even longer, making the whole experience of losing all your money even more unpleasant.

 There is one possible solution. You ask a trusted third party such as a lawyer to generate a secret key unknown to you. You generate your own secret key. A bitcoin address is formed that needs both keys to be known to open it (this is easily done) and you transfer your bitcoins to this address. The lawyer cannot access these bitcoins.
 Then in order to access your bitcoins you have to go to your lawyers office and sign a release form and you are given the other key.
 But please ensure that all of the violent criminals are aware that you have done this.

 Alternatively spend all of your bitcoins and your fiat as soon as you get it. I use this method and it works fine.

 
 
 

[tvbcof]

Re security. Some valid points there in the long term.
...

...
 I mentioned this in the 'how many bitcoins have you got' thread and suggested a time delay wallet similar to the safes in banks. On reflection this might just result in you being held by the violent criminals for even longer, making the whole experience of losing all your money even more unpleasant.

 There is one possible solution. You ask a trusted third party such as a lawyer to generate a secret key unknown to you. You generate your own secret key. A bitcoin address is formed that needs both keys to be known to open it (this is easily done) and you transfer your bitcoins to this address. The lawyer cannot access these bitcoins.
 Then in order to access your bitcoins you have to go to your lawyers office and sign a release form and you are given the other key.
 But please ensure that all of the violent criminals are aware that you have done this.

 Alternatively spend all of your bitcoins and your fiat as soon as you get it. I use this method and it works fine.
 

It's pretty straightforward to keep cold storage BTC exclusively in a safe deposit box with no access to them saved having some 'free time' to enlist some assistance.  That is what I do.  The bold part is the hard part.

As for turning them into fiat, that would have been a very costly method for those who acquired BTC some time ago.  But 'having nothing' is indeed an effective method for not getting robbed.  Attempted robbery is another story...

[jinni]

http://www.thegenesisblock.com/bitcoin-the-newest-tool-in-chinas-currency-war-chest/

Cool article.

Thanks for the warning about hackers. Duly noted and I will take precautions even though I have an infinitesimal amount of BTC and am not an early adopter. I still feel like my BTC are extremely precious to me.

But still I have to make a point, it will take time for the China frenzy to get fully started. Fair enough we got the two government sanctioned news reports. What we are waiting for now is for all the other different news outlets to digest that information and to do the required research to be able to confirm, match, copy and even add to what has already been published by the government. Then of course there is the blog and microblog storm that will ensue. One good point I heard is that in marketing terms people need to hear about something seven times before they even bother paying attention to it.

I think we need enough time for the many Chinese to rehash all the newbie questions that bitcointalk already has been taking years to explain (the rhetoric has already been simplified here so it won't take years). Even among the English-speaking Chinese I think Bitcoin is not really well known. My example is Hong Kong which has a low Bitcoin penetration even though it is uncensored and most people there speak English.

So I put the 55 countries that have downloaded the most bitcoin-qt clients from sourceforge and then I divided that number (of bitcoin-qt client downloads) by a thousandth of the population to get an idea of penetration. So using Hong Kong as a measure for mainland China adoption (meaning there is no way Hong Kong could not get to Northern European levels), I think there is easily a potential for a 4-5-fold increase in adoption of bitcoin in China. A 4-fold increase would put the 350 million-strong Chinese middle class at about the same level as Germany. It would also surpass the number of US downloads of the bitcoin-qt client.

4,97   Finland
4,73   Sweden
4,38   Netherlands
3,91   Estonia
3,81   Norway
3,80   Canada
3,56   Denmark
3,52   Slovenia
3,43   Australia
3,16   New Zealand
2,92   United States
2,79   United Kingdom
2,51   Germany
2,50   Lithuania
2,46   Austria
2,44   Switzerland
2,31   Latvia
2,28   Israel
2,19   Slovakia
1,98   Ireland
1,98   Poland
1,83   Bulgaria
1,75   Czech Republic
1,75   Belgium
1,57   Singapore
1,40   Portugal
1,22   Greece
1,21   Croatia
1,20   Hong Kong
1,16   Russia
1,12   Ukraine
1,08   Hungary
1,03   Belarus
1,00   Spain
0,95   Romania
0,87   Serbia
0,81   France
0,78   Italy
0,52   Argentina
0,43   Chile
0,25   Taiwan
0,23   South Africa
0,21   Malaysia
0,20   Brazil
0,18   China
0,13   Mexico
0,11   Colombia
0,10   Korea
0,10   Thailand
0,09   Turkey
0,07   Japan
0,06   Viet Nam
0,06   Philippines
0,02   Indonesia
0,02   India

[Brushan]

Shit, i didn't know Sweden was that high up on the list. Maybe i should start a Bitcoin business here.

[bitchris]

Hmmm, India is last? Untapped territory?

[jinni]

Shit, i didn't know Sweden was that high up on the list. Maybe i should start a Bitcoin business here.

Do it.

Hmmm, India is last? Untapped territory?

For sure. Especially considering the huge Indian diaspora sending money back home which is so much easier with Bitcoin than with traditional banks.

[Brushan]

Now imagine if all 50 countries on the list had the same number of penetration as the average number of the top 10. Which is very likely to happen.

[QuestionAuthority]

This may sound stupid but if China really liked the Bitcoin idea why would they make their own copy or use the current Bitcoin system? Couldn’t they just open a Chinese gov sponsored exchange and let MtGox get crushed by the regulations in the USA? If they had the primary exchange like we do now couldn’t they set the price like MtGox does now? I’m sure they have enough computing power to mine so transactions might actually speed up as blocks are found more quickly. I know a lot of the old guard here will fork the client and stay with Gavin and Co. but out of the general population how many would stick with the Chinese Bitcoin or even know that there are two of them? They could make Bitcoin the powerhouse that volunteerism can’t accomplish.

[jinni]

Now imagine if all 50 countries on the list had the same number of penetration as the average number of the top 10. Which is very likely to happen.

Of the 3 million qt-clients already downloaded...If only Italy, Spain and France gets to UK levels then we are talking about 300k more qt-clients. That's an increase of 10% right there. If China 4-folds it's an increase of another 30%. Including periferal countries we're talking an increase in qt-clients of 50% since all time. I think it is just a matter of translation. It would be bigger than the year-to-date number of downloads of the qt-client and it could happen in less than the 4.5 months already passed. The media frenzy ensuing could double that total.

[jinni]

This may sound stupid but if China really liked the Bitcoin idea why would they make their own copy or use the current Bitcoin system? Couldn’t they just open a Chinese gov sponsored exchange and let MtGox get crushed by the regulations in the USA? If they had the primary exchange like we do now couldn’t they set the price like MtGox does now? I’m sure they have enough computing power to mine so transactions might actually speed up as blocks are found more quickly. I know a lot of the old guard here will fork the client and stay with Gavin and Co. but out of the general population how many would stick with the Chinese Bitcoin or even know that there are two of them? They could make Bitcoin the powerhouse that volunteerism can’t accomplish.

Why would this case make the need to fork the client? The Chinese government could make a fork but how many would bother to use it? At most a fifth of the world population. But if the Chinese government sponsored a true (non-forked) Bitcoin exchange it would be truly world dominating material.

[QuestionAuthority]

This may sound stupid but if China really liked the Bitcoin idea why would they make their own copy or use the current Bitcoin system? Couldn’t they just open a Chinese gov sponsored exchange and let MtGox get crushed by the regulations in the USA? If they had the primary exchange like we do now couldn’t they set the price like MtGox does now? I’m sure they have enough computing power to mine so transactions might actually speed up as blocks are found more quickly. I know a lot of the old guard here will fork the client and stay with Gavin and Co. but out of the general population how many would stick with the Chinese Bitcoin or even know that there are two of them? They could make Bitcoin the powerhouse that volunteerism can’t accomplish.

Why would this case make the need to fork the client? The Chinese government could make a fork but how many would bother to use it? At most a fifth of the world population. But if the Chinese government sponsored a true (non-forked) Bitcoin exchange it would be truly world dominating material.

True but if China controlled the main exchange would everyone still want to be involved? How about if they started developing the software? It is open source.

[Coinseeker]

This may sound stupid but if China really liked the Bitcoin idea why would they make their own copy or use the current Bitcoin system? Couldn’t they just open a Chinese gov sponsored exchange and let MtGox get crushed by the regulations in the USA? If they had the primary exchange like we do now couldn’t they set the price like MtGox does now? I’m sure they have enough computing power to mine so transactions might actually speed up as blocks are found more quickly. I know a lot of the old guard here will fork the client and stay with Gavin and Co. but out of the general population how many would stick with the Chinese Bitcoin or even know that there are two of them? They could make Bitcoin the powerhouse that volunteerism can’t accomplish.

Why would this case make the need to fork the client? The Chinese government could make a fork but how many would bother to use it? At most a fifth of the world population. But if the Chinese government sponsored a true (non-forked) Bitcoin exchange it would be truly world dominating material.

True but if China controlled the main exchange would everyone still want to be involved? How about if they started developing the software? It is open source.

China controls everything anyway.  They've been manipulating currency forever.  Don't see how their involvement would change a thing.  Everyone of us typing in this forum is using something made in China.  Tough pill for some, but truth nonetheless.  Almost seems like a natural progression for China to dominate Bitcoin as well.

[jinni]

This may sound stupid but if China really liked the Bitcoin idea why would they make their own copy or use the current Bitcoin system? Couldn’t they just open a Chinese gov sponsored exchange and let MtGox get crushed by the regulations in the USA? If they had the primary exchange like we do now couldn’t they set the price like MtGox does now? I’m sure they have enough computing power to mine so transactions might actually speed up as blocks are found more quickly. I know a lot of the old guard here will fork the client and stay with Gavin and Co. but out of the general population how many would stick with the Chinese Bitcoin or even know that there are two of them? They could make Bitcoin the powerhouse that volunteerism can’t accomplish.

Why would this case make the need to fork the client? The Chinese government could make a fork but how many would bother to use it? At most a fifth of the world population. But if the Chinese government sponsored a true (non-forked) Bitcoin exchange it would be truly world dominating material.

True but if China controlled the main exchange would everyone still want to be involved? How about if they started developing the software? It is open source.

If China controlled the main exchange other countries would have no choice but to set up exchanges too. Btw, correct me if I'm wrong but isn't the btcchina server located in Japan?

The thing that matters is not who controls the exchange but who controls the bank accounts. And that would be the government. Hence the CCTV-2 news being monumental.

[QuestionAuthority]

This may sound stupid but if China really liked the Bitcoin idea why would they make their own copy or use the current Bitcoin system? Couldn’t they just open a Chinese gov sponsored exchange and let MtGox get crushed by the regulations in the USA? If they had the primary exchange like we do now couldn’t they set the price like MtGox does now? I’m sure they have enough computing power to mine so transactions might actually speed up as blocks are found more quickly. I know a lot of the old guard here will fork the client and stay with Gavin and Co. but out of the general population how many would stick with the Chinese Bitcoin or even know that there are two of them? They could make Bitcoin the powerhouse that volunteerism can’t accomplish.

Why would this case make the need to fork the client? The Chinese government could make a fork but how many would bother to use it? At most a fifth of the world population. But if the Chinese government sponsored a true (non-forked) Bitcoin exchange it would be truly world dominating material.

True but if China controlled the main exchange would everyone still want to be involved? How about if they started developing the software? It is open source.

China controls everything anyway.  They've been manipulating currency forever.  Don't see how their involvement would change a thing.  Everyone of us typing in this forum is using something made in China.  Tough pill for some, but truth nonetheless.

Yes, but we got our revenge.  China has Walmart’s now!  They will have to get used to buying the same shitty low quality products that we are forced to buy.

[Coinseeker]

This may sound stupid but if China really liked the Bitcoin idea why would they make their own copy or use the current Bitcoin system? Couldn’t they just open a Chinese gov sponsored exchange and let MtGox get crushed by the regulations in the USA? If they had the primary exchange like we do now couldn’t they set the price like MtGox does now? I’m sure they have enough computing power to mine so transactions might actually speed up as blocks are found more quickly. I know a lot of the old guard here will fork the client and stay with Gavin and Co. but out of the general population how many would stick with the Chinese Bitcoin or even know that there are two of them? They could make Bitcoin the powerhouse that volunteerism can’t accomplish.

Why would this case make the need to fork the client? The Chinese government could make a fork but how many would bother to use it? At most a fifth of the world population. But if the Chinese government sponsored a true (non-forked) Bitcoin exchange it would be truly world dominating material.

True but if China controlled the main exchange would everyone still want to be involved? How about if they started developing the software? It is open source.

China controls everything anyway.  They've been manipulating currency forever.  Don't see how their involvement would change a thing.  Everyone of us typing in this forum is using something made in China.  Tough pill for some, but truth nonetheless.

Yes, but we got our revenge.  China has Walmart’s now!  They will have to get used to buying the same shitty low quality products that we are forced to buy.

  Taste of their own medicine.

[Malawi]

Now imagine if all 50 countries on the list had the same number of penetration as the average number of the top 10. Which is very likely to happen.

Interesting list, I note that Norway is at 5'th place

There are absolutely room for growth, and all tinfoil stuff aside, I think there may be an influx of chinese users soon. Since there are massive amounts of chinese, even a .1 increase should be noticeable.
I suspect that Chinese users are going to mainly do mining until there is a Chinese exchange. If the buttercoin project is successful, it may only be a few months away.
The CNC coin is already launched and caters to the Chinese market. Time will show what they choose.

What Bitcoin need is to reach critical mass, I think it's still 1-2-3 years away(or even longer). Even though stuff go faster now, it still takes a bit of getting used to. At the moment enough people are aware of Bitcoin, and they know people that uses it, the usage may go parabolic(like internet/cellphones etc.). Question is how the bitcoin community and infrastructure will handle this. The blockchain might start growing massively and prices might go trough the roof. This again may scare people away... There are lots of sides to the bitcoin. Hopefully it will become a gamechanger, especially in online retail. not to mention the great possibilities if it can be used alongside local currencies around the word. It would be nice to be able to use BTC when traveling - even more so than when you are at home where you have cheap payment systems in your local currency.

[optimator]

I'll play along. Just to be clear.... this is a scenario - I don't believe in it, but if we're speculating... why not? I hope you enjoy the read...

China begins the adoption of bitcoin. They don't have well formed concrete ideas of how it will help, but another arrow in the quiver never hurts. Meanwhile, Japan carries on with their quantitative easing policy. The unforeseen effect of their QE policy causes multi-billion-billion dollar derivative contracts that have shorted the dollar to unload into the market resulting in a drop in the price of gold.

Meanwhile, miscommunication from Japan's MoD results in what China perceives as agressive action in the Senkaku Islands causing a harsh and disproportionate reaction by China.

In the months that follows China and Russia, taking advantage of the low price of gold, put a plan in place to create a new currency back by gold held in Switzerland to purchase oil from the middle east. Countries send gold to Switzerland, obtain the gold backed currency and buy oil. The currency is reluctantly accepted over the next 6 months ending in the dollar panic of '14. A panic where nations flee from the perceived stability of the dollar into whatever physical assets they believe are valuable.

The value of bitcoin skyrockets.

Over the next year the United States gradually loses purchasing power and despite all efforts the government starts to implode. The tax base is absent - all money is in the only safe haven - bitcoin. In fact, the nation is now divided into the bitcoin equity holders and everyone else. Factions of bitcoin holders have assembled into self autonomous clans to protect themselves.

They create a derivative currency backed by bitcoin. A derivative currency that is first used to hire security for the clan. The clan starts to create what is necessary for survival: Water, food, shelter, security and stability - All paid for by their new currency backed by bitcoin.

Eventually the clan feels secure enough to undertake infrastructure projects such as roads and gradually expands their territory and connects with other clans.

And life continues its forward progression.

[woodrowchai]

I'm a Chinese,and I think you're too sensitive.
China Gov won't notice bitcoin yet.

[Malawi]

I'm a Chinese,and I think you're too sensitive.
China Gov won't notice bitcoin yet.

I'm not a Chinese, but +264.3

Don't think they care, and if they start to care at some point, it will be to late.