Oh yeah it'll drop like a rock from $17.50 and might even go through another flash crash because Mt. Gox has pissed off some big holders. But I think it'll then recover higher than $17.50 and oscillate, settling in the 14-16 range. I just don't know if that will happen in as little as 2 hours.
Yes your logic makes 100% sense.
1.) MTGOX piss off bigholders
2.) Bigholders retaliate and sell their BTC for below market value
3.) Bitcoins crash
4.) Bigholders now hold nothing, and barely any $
5.) Evil comeback plan complete.
Do you see how stupid that looks? Why would you even consider that as a reason for a price crash?
I realisticly see no unusual drop, big holders are most likely not among the pissy potty comments from users who feel touched by the devil.
First, some big holders have indeed made pissy potty comments. Also, as I understand it, those without salted passwords are more likely old miners, so they would likely have more reason to distrust Mt. Gox. That, and bigger holders typically are involving a larger percentage of money that they realize, after not having access, that they can't comfortably gamble. In other words, bigger holder confidence will be less than those of us playing with chump change. Then again, big holders have been battle tested.
Also, I said "might" which indicates my confidence in my own carnie weight-guessing submission. I don't necessarily mean an intentional flash crash, either. It's more like this:
1) Big holders who have lost faith in Mt. Gox, but don't want to withdraw to other exchanges or into wallets are inclined to sell. Also, a lot of people are questioning whether Mt. Gox is now a fractional reserve that might not be able to pay out all accounts. To people that actually believe that (not me), getting money out of Mt. Gox soon is better than getting "market price."
2) The starting price is $17.50... with all prior bids cleared out beforehand. The only bids present will be are ones that people put up after getting account access back and before the market opening. So, there's most definitely a decreased pool of buyer dollars.
3) Mt. Gox said that bank transfers and such from the rollback period are given "pending status". So, I don't think many "new buyers" will be there at opening.
4) Current market price at other exchanges is well short of $17.50 and everyone knows it. When the price drops from $17.50, which it might do just from the arbitrage opportunity alone, it's not going to slowly level off at $14.50. Bitcoin has shown that when it drops, it tanks before it recovers, even when no manipulation is involved. Jesus, look at the lack of confidence of guesses in this very thread.
5)Hold on. What the hell, dude? At least I provided some sort of random reasoning to my guess. Why don't you pick on people who didn't provide any reasoning to their guesses. Hell, why don't you support your own guess so that I might tear it apart without actually providing any reasonable counterarguments other than a straw man fallacy? With neither useful patterns in the days prior to this opening or confidence in the exchange or the market, it's like you're saying that my favorite color really isn't blue like I think it is.
6)So anyway, while we're zooming from $17.50-$14.50, where tradehill seems to be, we'll at least touch $11.50. Then, what happens after that is going to be the deciding direction (e.g. if it halts around 11.50 and then starts dropping to 10.50, it's going to continue further for several more dollars. Or if it recovers to 12, it'll jump up 3 or 4 bucks).
Why do I guess this? Because, if $14.50 is what everyone believes market value is right now. Bitcoin, based on prior speedy drops during bearish periods, tends to come back and either quickly peak at or eventually settle at 33-50% of the high/low difference. For example, we went from 24 to 16 to 20. 19 to 15.5 to 17. 32 to 23 to 27. 6 to 4.6 to 5.5. During bullish periods, drops then go to 50-66% of the high/low difference. I don't know about trends after quick rallies, though. Anyway, to split the difference, I'm putting the key point at 50%, so $11.50 it is, and that's about where I'm putting half my bid money.
In other words, I'm guessing that if it does indeed drop below $11.50 and becomes a downward rocket. Because the exacerbating events in this opening compared to other speedy drops, I'm saying it'll go below that and do the flash crash thing as people realize that we've dropped more than twice the difference between $17.50 and $14.50. In other words, if we break below the pattern I outlined above, and I think we will, it'll be a cue for a lot of people to just 'get out and get what they can'. Hell, there's probably still some account security issues, so who knows if some bitcoin thief will need to quickly sell and transfer for reasons completely unrelated to the market.
7) Okay, to continue this string of shitty assumptions. That potential crash below $11.50 will bottom at the 5 support. The potential for massive profits is too great for any momentum below 5, especially after seeing what those with low bids were able to profit after Sunday's flash crash. Those that sold early on wanting to get back in at a lower position will be buying here.
Then it'll rally. $11.25 is the key point as far as I'm concerned, as it's 50% of the difference between 17.5 and 5. It'll recover from the crash from $11.50 back to $11.25 over like an hour. Then, as people see that a real bottom exists, that it didn't go to zero, and that it recovered nicely, it'll rally, but with timidity. Those who sold out will be sitting there with lots of USD, wanting to get back into the game now that they know that bitcoin is not dead. But, due to people leaving Mt. Gox, even if there was the same confidence as there was when it was $17.50 before the flash crash, there would be less buyer money period. This is because, after the start of the market, people will be more likely to withdraw newly-exchanged USD rather than bitcoins. Those who moved bitcoins to wallets will have done so before the market opening.
So, I chose $15.8289 because it's between 14 and 17.50. Even if everyone who participates has the same the pre-rollback market confidence, there will be less participants due to lack of confidence in Mt. Gox. So, I'm thinking less than $17.50, more than the 14 dollars that I think the other exchanges will be at before the opening.
Well, that and I closed my eyes and randomly moved my mouse around a historical chart of the past month and it it was 15.8289 when I opened them. Then I tried to come up with some reasoning as to why that's a good number.
If you'd like, I can do the same for other numbers. I could probably write 500 words on why it's going to be $13.75.