Bitcoin is showing what could be a head and shoulders reversal pattern

[ktabb]

https://twitter.com/demoinvestor/status/877163460961939456

What do you guys think? Bitcoin definitely seems overbought... is this an indication that the trend is turning bearish? Is buying interest diminishing? Looks like we may currently be near the peak of the right shoulder in a head and shoulders reversal pattern.

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[brokedummy]

yep I sold for gold/silver/fiat and ltc, see you guys at 1500 or less

[digaran]

yep I sold for gold/silver/fiat and ltc, see you guys at 1500 or less

Good, now we just need 500 more people like you to have a shaking hand and dump for the rest of us, 500 people each dumping 1K Bitcoins I believe that should do it, but what if instead of going down it starts to rise? I recall when people were causing chaos because price was $1250 and they couldn't buy any more, it went to $1500 then $1700 and when it hit $2000 I myself was begging for $1500-$1200.
One thing I've learned even price drops to $200 we'll be bitching around about how expensive it is and how we can't afford to buy any. lol

[alyssa85]

Here is OP's image:



And yes, it does look like a head and shoulders pattern - that means a drop down to about $1400?

[JimboToronto]

Looks more like a reverse head-and-shoulders to me:

[fluidjax]

TA (technical analysis) is a self fulfilling prophecy, the more people believe that it is real and act, the more real it becomes.
It reminds me of that Amazon show 'American Gods', where the Gods only exist when people believe in them.

[ktabb]

yep I sold for gold/silver/fiat and ltc, see you guys at 1500 or less

Good, now we just need 500 more people like you to have a shaking hand and dump for the rest of us, 500 people each dumping 1K Bitcoins I believe that should do it, but what if instead of going down it starts to rise? I recall when people were causing chaos because price was $1250 and they couldn't buy any more, it went to $1500 then $1700 and when it hit $2000 I myself was begging for $1500-$1200.
One thing I've learned even price drops to $200 we'll be bitching around about how expensive it is and how we can't afford to buy any. lol

I don't own any btc, I trade stocks. When people start mass selling, prices don't rise.

[ktabb]

TA (technical analysis) is a self fulfilling prophecy, the more people believe that it is real and act, the more real it becomes.
It reminds me of that Amazon show 'American Gods', where the Gods only exist when people believe in them.

This might be partially true but either way, you are saying it is an accurate forecast (regardless of whether or not it is causal).

[blade87]

That's the most lopsided, two headed and shoulders pattern I've seen.

I'd have to say the h&s pattern is the most overused, and incorrectly called pattern in the history of TA. Too much "outside influence" that no one can really factor in. If the Bitcoin upgrade goes smoothly, we go north of $3000. If it doesn't, then a reversal will probably play out.

[ktabb]

That's the most lopsided, two headed and shoulders pattern I've seen.

I'd have to say the h&s pattern is the most overused, and incorrectly called pattern in the history of TA. Too much "outside influence" that no one can really factor in. If the Bitcoin upgrade goes smoothly, we go north of $3000. If it doesn't, then a reversal will probably play out.

Doesn't look two headed or lopsided at all, it looks very clear imo.

Just to summarize though, your prediction is that bitcoin will either go up, or go down. Did I get that right?

[BitcoinerXX]

That's the most lopsided, two headed and shoulders pattern I've seen.

I'd have to say the h&s pattern is the most overused, and incorrectly called pattern in the history of TA. Too much "outside influence" that no one can really factor in. If the Bitcoin upgrade goes smoothly, we go north of $3000. If it doesn't, then a reversal will probably play out.

Doesn't look two headed or lopsided at all, it looks very clear imo.

Just to summarize though, your prediction is that bitcoin will either go up, or go down. Did I get that right?

funny, probably will go up and down and up again

[SONG GEET]

yep I sold for gold/silver/fiat and ltc, see you guys at 1500 or less

I think your dream will never come true, $2000 is floor right now and I don't think price will go below that range in near future. If you get lucky, your buy orders at $2000 might get executed but $1500 is not possible. 

[pooya87]

yep I sold for gold/silver/fiat and ltc, see you guys at 1500 or less

haha, you wish.
unless bitcoin splits and miners finally wreck bitcoin in 2 months or so (which is highly unlikely i should add) i can not see price going below $2100 ever again.

and TA has been proven to be useless in 99% of the times when it comes to bitcoin

[notme]

If it goes up anymore, your already sloppy head and shoulders will be completely invalidated.

[Supercrypt]

https://twitter.com/demoinvestor/status/877163460961939456

What do you guys think? Bitcoin definitely seems overbought... is this an indication that the trend is turning bearish? Is buying interest diminishing? Looks like we may currently be near the peak of the right shoulder in a head and shoulders reversal pattern.

There were history, bitcoin price movements were not following exact fundamental pattern recognitions. Fundamentals will work only with same market conditions, anything drastic change in to the market conditions like more number of new investors/government policy changes might result in breaching fundamentals.

Even bitcoin may find downfall in upcoming days, it will not sustain there. A quick sharp bounce back is highly possible in more quicker times.

[magneto]

https://twitter.com/demoinvestor/status/877163460961939456

What do you guys think? Bitcoin definitely seems overbought... is this an indication that the trend is turning bearish? Is buying interest diminishing? Looks like we may currently be near the peak of the right shoulder in a head and shoulders reversal pattern.

Chart analysis is only accurate up to a certain point.

It is best to take into account what is actually happening, community sentiment, whether anything special is occuring before reaching your decision of whether it's going t obe a bull market or a bear market.

Right now, without looking at any chart, i can tell you that we're probably going to be breaking $3000 before any sort of adjustment happening. If it doesn't reach $3000, like the last pump, it's going to get dumped to somewhere like $2000. Why do i know this? Past experience and what most of the community believes in, and that's a big part of what traders look at as well. But you have to question yourself, is chart analysis any more than guessing? It's not even an educated guess, at least to me. Finding random patterns out of nowhere is rarely useful.

[ktabb]

yep I sold for gold/silver/fiat and ltc, see you guys at 1500 or less

haha, you wish.
unless bitcoin splits and miners finally wreck bitcoin in 2 months or so (which is highly unlikely i should add) i can not see price going below $2100 ever again.

and TA has been proven to be useless in 99% of the times when it comes to bitcoin

Oh buddy... lol

You were probably saying you can never see the price going below $1,000 again in November of 2013, right?

Never again? That's a ridiculously bold claim and almost certainly false. Why on earth would you think it will NEVER be below $2100 again despite the fact that bitcoin's intrinsic value is far below that?

[ktabb]

https://twitter.com/demoinvestor/status/877163460961939456

What do you guys think? Bitcoin definitely seems overbought... is this an indication that the trend is turning bearish? Is buying interest diminishing? Looks like we may currently be near the peak of the right shoulder in a head and shoulders reversal pattern.

Chart analysis is only accurate up to a certain point.

It is best to take into account what is actually happening, community sentiment, whether anything special is occuring before reaching your decision of whether it's going t obe a bull market or a bear market.

Right now, without looking at any chart, i can tell you that we're probably going to be breaking $3000 before any sort of adjustment happening. If it doesn't reach $3000, like the last pump, it's going to get dumped to somewhere like $2000. Why do i know this? Past experience and what most of the community believes in, and that's a big part of what traders look at as well. But you have to question yourself, is chart analysis any more than guessing? It's not even an educated guess, at least to me. Finding random patterns out of nowhere is rarely useful.

99% of chart analysis is garbage. People post charts here with complicated lines drawn all over them that really just tell whatever narrative they want to tell... they draw the lines to fit their desires/predictions. The only reliable indicator of future price behavior is fundamental analysis, assuming a relatively efficient market. This is why bitcoin is hard to forecast - the market is very inefficient.

That being said, head/shoulders and double top/bottom are about the only form of TA that are reasonably accurate. In fact, head and shoulders is regarded as one of the best and strongest indicators of a trend reversing (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/head-shoulders.asp).

As far as your prediction goes though, it seems like you are just guessing based on your gut. I don't think your past experience gives any weight whatsoever to your prediction... being experienced is not evidence. Neither is claiming that the community wants to push btc over $3,000. In fact, in this case, I would say that seeing patterns like double top or head and shoulders are a much more reliable indicator of investor sentiment about bitcoin than your gut is.

[HasHe]

yep I sold for gold/silver/fiat and ltc, see you guys at 1500 or less

I think your dream will never come true, $2000 is floor right now and I don't think price will go below that range in near future. If you get lucky, your buy orders at $2000 might get executed but $1500 is not possible. 

In the past,we could see that bitcoin price has not gone below $2000 and $2000 has become the bottom stable price for bitcoin and we could not expect price to fall below that.Fluctuations is a normal occurance in bitcoin price and we need not get worried for small price fluctuations.

[jhenfelipe]

Who knows? It might be another head instead of a shoulder (possibility is always there). Honestly, I rarely check the price chart and only decide on my own when I trade, so far it's good. Just a thought, if all traders based their decision on the chart, there's a big possibility that we'll get the same pattern. However, it's not the case because people come and go, there are new traders and some leave trading which probably affect the price so it may or may not happen (the head/shoulder).