What is the most likely outcome on August 1st ?

[Sniper150]

Let's all be optimistic, everything will go fine and soon after August 1st we will be even richer.

I don't think so. We can just predict what will happen for tomorrow. Maybe the Bitcoin price in August 1st will increase and everyone who saves bitcoin in their own wallet earns a big profit. If you save 1BTC in your own wallet, it maybe doubles soon after August 1st. As long as the day lasts, the prices rise too. There are people who are rich in Bitcoin. They are the one who saves a big money in their wallet and patiently waiting to raise its price. Bitcoin price was fluctuating. You don't know its rising again. But it better for you to save than selling it.

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[robelneo]

I don't see any spectacular or doom scenario on August 1,this segwit must happen and this is the right time to happen there's a lot of news coming out about it's negative effect but still everything is not yet confirm,but it's highly recommend that you have your coin in a wallet where you have the private keys

[keithers]

I don't see any spectacular or doom scenario on August 1,this segwit must happen and this is the right time to happen there's a lot of news coming out about it's negative effect but still everything is not yet confirm,but it's highly recommend that you have your coin in a wallet where you have the private keys

Ok theoretically in the event of a hard fork with coins in a hardware wallet, what would happen in the event of a split into two different coins? I'm confused on how that would be handled and how our wallets or private keys would translate into two separate coins. Can anyone explain?

[qiwoman2]

I have no idea what will happen on August the 1st but I  do hope it will bring something positive for the Bitcoin Community because we have been waiting far too long for the scaling debacle to be sorted.

[Russlenat]

I have no idea what will happen on August the 1st but I  do hope it will bring something positive for the Bitcoin Community because we have been waiting far too long for the scaling debacle to be sorted.

Yes you right! no one know exactly what happen on that date! may be it just some sort of propaganda for panic buying of cryptocurrencies. But for me let just see what happen then and I think this cannot be affect the bitcoin.

[coinmore_org]

Lets just all hope Bitcoin manages to scale so it can be used as a payment system as intended by Satoshi. Because at the moment it's nothing more than a speculative "thing".

[haroldtee]

Assuming the software doesn't blow up (I'm not real confident, but with so much riding on it they might actually get it right this time), the Segwit2X folks should have SW enabled for signaling on July 21. With 86% miner support at the moment, IF some of the miners don't pull out at the last minute (i.e., Bitmain) then SW will be close to activation on August 1.

Note that this depends on a couple things. I'd put the chances of SW2X pulling it off at around 60%, IMO.

If something goes wrong or Bitmain reneges again, then BIP148 gets activated. It will be messy but it will win. Jimmy Song has a good article explaining why, and the case has only gotten stronger since he wrote it.  The majority of miners, having just spent a month publicly declaring their intention to support SW, are not going to universally turn against it on August 1. Even if some follow Bitmain's lead or get cold feet, enough will stick with it to make BIP148 viable. And if it is viable on August 1, victory is virtually assured.

Song's article:
https://medium.com/@jimmysong/uasf-bip148-scenarios-and-game-theory-9530336d953e

So my prediction at this point looks something like this:

60% of Segwit activating thru SW2X, no BIP148 activation.
35% of Segwit activating though BIP148 w. some turmoil. Bitmain may try to fight with their planned fork, or may abandon its bluff. Doesn't matter either way.
5% of something else...

Sure! There is light at the end of the tunnel with segwit adoption, but still from the look of things, it is better safe than sorry by still having control of one's private key rather than getting too comfortable right?

[NUFCrichard]

Even in the worst case scenario of having 2 active chains after 1st August, it doesn't have to be a bad thing for the price.
When ETH and ETC split the price of both were far far lower than they are now.  Different Bitcoin chains could both prosper, at least in terms of price.

The problem will be longer term, when new investors don't understand what has happened, or what will happen in the future.  I hope it stays orderly, but then I want the transaction fees to fall too, so we'll see if those 2 things are possible together.

[Eternu]

Even in the worst case scenario of having 2 active chains after 1st August, it doesn't have to be a bad thing for the price.
When ETH and ETC split the price of both were far far lower than they are now.  Different Bitcoin chains could both prosper, at least in terms of price.

The problem will be longer term, when new investors don't understand what has happened, or what will happen in the future.  I hope it stays orderly, but then I want the transaction fees to fall too, so we'll see if those 2 things are possible together.

Hmm if i understood right, i share your thoughts and dilemma. I think no one can predict with certain what will happen. But i believe that at first price will go down, price of bitcoin of course. But after sometime, when people see what is better they will continue investing. I mean why would not they do that, fees will be lower and speed of transactions will be faster. Bitcoin will always stay the same in eyes of common people. We will continue to use it, and with that future of bitcoin is good.

[Bunsomjelican]

This is a question on everyones mind but there is no solid answer. I have scrolled through bitcointalk / reddit / everywhere.
Its one camp vs another vs another ... Therefore many answers to "what will happen" are biased.
I want to simply know.. will Bitcoin scale this year or not? will Bitcoin ever scale ? will August 1st even be of any real significance or will it be Y2K all over again (where nothing happened) ? And if Bitcoin does scale what will happen to the Litecoin (which has recently been taking some of Bitcoins gleem/shine) ?

I don't know why some of the community in this industry are so worried about for the coming August 1,  actually they
heard was only a speculation or just a food. If you are not really deep in this world, this will cause only to be trap and deceive by the others for you to get panic on it. nothings gonna hap pulpened bad this coming august 1.

[keithers]

Even in the worst case scenario of having 2 active chains after 1st August, it doesn't have to be a bad thing for the price.
When ETH and ETC split the price of both were far far lower than they are now.  Different Bitcoin chains could both prosper, at least in terms of price.

The problem will be longer term, when new investors don't understand what has happened, or what will happen in the future.  I hope it stays orderly, but then I want the transaction fees to fall too, so we'll see if those 2 things are possible together.

The part that I'm confused with...is let's say there is a hard fork and we end up with let's say "Bitcoin" and "Bitcoin Classic"  (I just tossed those two names out there obviously),   how would a hardware wallet like a nano or a trezor...support both coins without doing some major changes to their coding or whatever?

I don't have the slightest idea about coding, so I am just trying to get a grasp on what would happen in that event.   I would think that uncertainty would cause a at least a small sell off.

[Rahar02]

Assuming the software doesn't blow up (I'm not real confident, but with so much riding on it they might actually get it right this time), the Segwit2X folks should have SW enabled for signaling on July 21. With 86% miner support at the moment, IF some of the miners don't pull out at the last minute (i.e., Bitmain) then SW will be close to activation on August 1.

Note that this depends on a couple things. I'd put the chances of SW2X pulling it off at around 60%, IMO.

If something goes wrong or Bitmain reneges again, then BIP148 gets activated. It will be messy but it will win. Jimmy Song has a good article explaining why, and the case has only gotten stronger since he wrote it.  The majority of miners, having just spent a month publicly declaring their intention to support SW, are not going to universally turn against it on August 1. Even if some follow Bitmain's lead or get cold feet, enough will stick with it to make BIP148 viable. And if it is viable on August 1, victory is virtually assured.

Song's article:
https://medium.com/@jimmysong/uasf-bip148-scenarios-and-game-theory-9530336d953e

So my prediction at this point looks something like this:

60% of Segwit activating thru SW2X, no BIP148 activation.
35% of Segwit activating though BIP148 w. some turmoil. Bitmain may try to fight with their planned fork, or may abandon its bluff. Doesn't matter either way.
5% of something else...

The main question before what will happen after 1^st August is ; if any of those solutions will be implemented, whether miners and core will come to an agreement or compatibility to activate one of the proposals?
If segwit2x really a good deal, than I'm sure bitcoin will continue to rise more than $5000 in this year, just hopefully nothing going wrong as we all in bitcoin community don't want something bad to our bitcoin, and so are miners and cores.

[Jewell]

I have no idea what will happen on August the 1st but I  do hope it will bring something positive for the Bitcoin Community because we have been waiting far too long for the scaling debacle to be sorted.

we are also hopping so, that the there is not going to happen again bitcoin. hope that after 1st August bitcoin price will become skyrocket , because it trading at 2500$ for a long time, but still bitcoin price has too much potential and will very soon cross 4000$ level. i think we need to show a little patient and hope that we will get a good profit after some days.

[Makka]

I have no idea what will happen on August the 1st but I  do hope it will bring something positive for the Bitcoin Community because we have been waiting far too long for the scaling debacle to be sorted.

we are also hopping so, that the there is not going to happen again bitcoin. hope that after 1st August bitcoin price will become skyrocket , because it trading at 2500$ for a long time, but still bitcoin price has too much potential and will very soon cross 4000$ level.

I think August 1 will present us some adjustments to bitcoin, making it a better one. I hope transaction fees will also be addressed. Before that date, people will remain fearful as to what will come out on that day. But after that, after realizing that everything is for the greater good of bitcoin, the price will leap high.

[johnscoin]

This is a question on everyones mind but there is no solid answer. I have scrolled through bitcointalk / reddit / everywhere.

It's wrong to look for information in those sites.

Never believe anything from Reddit/Bitcoin Github/Bitcoin Bitcointalk Bitcoin.org. Nearly all are controlled by Theymos, who was said by resources to have scammed 6000 BTC, worth $14.8 million dollars today.

They are censored deliberately to mislead you and they were hijacked years ago by people who hate Bitcoin. What you only can get is misinformation.

You are welcome to reddit.com/r/btc for some information. But please keep in mind that there are many altcoin-pumpers (especially ETH) around.

[canvan]

I have no idea what will happen on August the 1st but I  do hope it will bring something positive for the Bitcoin Community because we have been waiting far too long for the scaling debacle to be sorted.

we are also hopping so, that the there is not going to happen again bitcoin. hope that after 1st August bitcoin price will become skyrocket , because it trading at 2500$ for a long time, but still bitcoin price has too much potential and will very soon cross 4000$ level.

I think August 1 will present us some adjustments to bitcoin, making it a better one. I hope transaction fees will also be addressed. Before that date, people will remain fearful as to what will come out on that day. But after that, after realizing that everything is for the greater good of bitcoin, the price will leap high.

Yes I think the closer we get the less fear people will have because as each day passes its less and less likely there will be a hardfork and more likely to see real solutions.

[deisik]

This is a question on everyones mind but there is no solid answer. I have scrolled through bitcointalk / reddit / everywhere.
Its one camp vs another vs another ... Therefore many answers to "what will happen" are biased.
I want to simply know.. will Bitcoin scale this year or not? will Bitcoin ever scale ? will August 1st even be of any real significance or will it be Y2K all over again (where nothing happened) ? And if Bitcoin does scale what will happen to the Litecoin (which has recently been taking some of Bitcoins gleem/shine) ?

If Bitcoin doesn't scale it is set to die eventually

Of course, it is unlikely that it is going to die in the way as many if not all shitcoins die, but that might only make its slow and gradual decline more painful and miserable at the end of the day, so if it were a conscious being, it might have preferred a faster and more honorable demise. Obviously, Litecoin is likely to take its place since it has already solved the issues (more specifically, lack of scalability) which would be the ultimate causes of Bitcoin decline. Basically, Litecoin is the same Bitcoin as it should have become if it had managed to successfully scale up (I'm talking from the future where Bitcoin is left for dead)

[DoublerHunter]

I think that the outcome on august 1st will be a split on the chain of bitcoin and the price might experience some dump because of the panic of the people in holding their bitcoins and also the fear of losing their bitcoin because they don't have the enough knowledge in securing their bitcoins for the upcoming fork on august 1st.

[deisik]

Everybody shall remember what happened a year ago.

I mean the halving. Most people said at the time that BTC would go to the roof, because of that new scarcity, but nothing happened. The price BTC remained flat for several months after the halving

In fact, that had been expected

And not just by me alone, though I had written about that a few times two months before the halving. The price had been rising half a year before the actual event on halving hype alone, and it was as clear as day that most folks will try to outsmart the rest of the pack by cashing out before the halving. Exactly that happened in real life, and a few weeks before the event, Bitcoin crashed. Further, we shouldn't completely write off the impact of the Bitfinex hack in early August three weeks after the halving. Regarding current showdown, I basically agree with Jimmy Song that things might get uglier than most of us think. Personally, I would be greatly surprised if, for example, Jihan didn't come up with something really nasty as the time draws closer to the Bitcoin Judgment day

[BitcoinHodler]

Everybody shall remember what happened a year ago.

I mean the halving. Most people said at the time that BTC would go to the roof, because of that new scarcity, but nothing happened. The price BTC remained flat for several months after the halving.

LOL the halving period was the most incident filled period of time last year. how can you say "nothing happened"!!

and it went "to the roof". it is a 60% rise before the halving because of hype and another 60% rise after the halving when actual "new scarcity" kicks in. what else do you want that is 120% rise in less than a year

here is summarized it: