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Author Topic: In regards to all the optimism  (Read 1649 times)
misterPaul
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June 20, 2011, 10:39:46 AM
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I have to wonder, is this really just a case of mass rose tinted glasses, or are you all playing a game with each other? Obviously, if you were all predicting mass drops in value of Bitcoins, everyone that came here would be thinking "Oh crap, I need to sell" - but are you all thinking if you maintain the appearance of optimism, you might be able to sell before everyone else does?

Are you worried that those 1000 bitcoins you held onto, you perhaps kept a little too long? Have you been watching your balance sheet rapidly ticking up, and living on a high believing you were now rich? You all built your rigs and spent your time solving hashes, are you now wondering if you'll make that money back? Do you now know how those young pioneers felt during the dot com bubble?

If you aren't having these exact same thoughts, then you need to start having them. Even if you continue this excessively optimistic exterior, it might be a good idea to double check what's going on here.

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June 20, 2011, 10:50:11 AM
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It's normal for a market to get an occasional drop in value, only to return to the same level (and even higher) after a few years. Although that does increase the overall risk, and in the case of bitcoin, there is obsoletely no portfolio (meaning all the money is in one basket) so yeah, if I had 1000 coins, I would sold around 1/4 of it Cheesy

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June 20, 2011, 10:52:13 AM
 #3

Well, most of fiat currencies do not inspire much more trust to me (actually, much less). And I even got an haircut holding physical gold during the 2008 crash.
I think that a small amount of BTC in your portfolio (maybe 1-3%) offer an interesting opportunity of diversification with high risk/potential reward.  
Most of my stash remains stored in physical gold and silver bullion though.

misterPaul
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June 20, 2011, 10:59:30 AM
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It's normal for a market to get an occasional drop in value, only to return to the same level (and even higher) after a few years. Although that does increase the overall risk, and in the case of bitcoin, there is obsoletely no portfolio (meaning all the money is in one basket) so yeah, if I had 1000 coins, I would sold around 1/4 of it Cheesy

A reasoned reply, I'll be interested to see if you're right, though comparing the bitcoin market to other markets is a little disingenuous. The perceived value of fiat economies began with material value being traded (rare metals) then evolved to storing those materials and using tokens, and finally the tokens represented a perceived value (with a fraction of that actually stored in rare metals). This timeline allowed the economy to evolve into the much more stable system you see today. The next reply seems to suggest fiat currencies are not as stable..

Well, most of fiat currencies do not inspire much more trust to me (actually, much less). And I even got an haircut holding physical gold during the 2008 crash.
I think that a small amount of BTC in your portfolio (maybe 1-3%) offer an interesting opportunity of diversification with high risk/potential reward.  
Most of my stash remains stored in physical gold and silver bullion though.

Really, they inspire less trust? How do you explain that? Even following the massive global downturn we recently experienced, the value of bread and such as remained roughly static. The value of bitcoin has deflated at a ridiculously massive rate these last few months, so much so that if any essential purchases were dependant on the currency, there would have been anarchy for those reliant on it.

You say keeping it in your portfolio is a good idea, but for how long? You're playing a game and need to pick when to sell. The question is, how many people are right now thinking "I'd better sell"

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Agozyen
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June 20, 2011, 11:07:24 AM
 #5

 Maybe we are excited to be part of something new.  I got into Bitcoin with no investment other than a few dollars for electricity.  Am I optimistic?  Hell yeah.  More merchants accept BTC every day.  If this keeps up who knows what could happen?

 Bitcoin is awesome, but that's my opinion Smiley  If you don't want to participate then GTFO.  It's as simple as that.  No one is forcing you to join up or come to the forums and make negative posts...

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misterPaul
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June 20, 2011, 11:14:06 AM
 #6

Maybe we are excited to be part of something new.  I got into Bitcoin with no investment other than a few dollars for electricity.  Am I optimistic?  Hell yeah.  More merchants accept BTC every day.  If this keeps up who knows what could happen?

 Bitcoin is awesome, but that's my opinion Smiley  If you don't want to participate then GTFO.  It's as simple as that.  No one is forcing you to join up or come to the forums and make negative posts...

Bitcoins are meaningless without perceived value, and that perceived value drops when people sell. If everyone begins selling, the first few sellers will make money. The market will realise things are going to pot and stop buying, people will try to sell at ever decreasing amounts, until everyone gives up on selling and just pray for things recover.

After that, things will either begin to climb again as interest begins to increase in the currency, or the perceived value of the currency will be so damaged, that noone is willing to trade real world currency for it.

I'm not sure if your aggressiveness here is trying to discourage me from warning others of something you've already realised, or if you really are this naive.

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chad
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June 20, 2011, 11:16:34 AM
 #7


You say keeping it in your portfolio is a good idea, but for how long? You're playing a game and need to pick when to sell. The question is, how many people are right now thinking "I'd better sell"


It depends on the investor's risk tolerance.  

- If they are investing then the answer may to be to never sell.  
- If they are trading then it is a game of when to buy and when to sell.

If you knew 1 billion more people will be drinking coca-cola in the next 100 years, would you try to figure out when to sell their stock?  Or sit back through the peaks and troughs and enjoy the long term rise in value of the asset you invested in (and pass it on to your heirs)?

For Bitcoin, no one knows if it will be around that long.  Some think it will.  Some don't.  

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misterPaul
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June 20, 2011, 11:26:50 AM
 #8

It depends on the investor's risk tolerance. 

- If they are investing then the answer may to be to never sell. 
- If they are trading then it is a game of when to buy and when to sell.

If you knew 1 billion more people will be drinking coca-cola in the next 100 years, would you try to figure out when to sell their stock?  Or sit back through the peaks and troughs and enjoy the long term rise in value of the asset you invested in (and pass it on to your heirs)?

For Bitcoin, no one knows if it will be around that long.  Some think it will.  Some don't. 

If you never sell, it was a pretty stupid investment! Everyone sells eventually, even if it's several generations down the road, that investment needs to be cashed in on; that's the whole point! Coca-cola doesn't just exist based on perceived value, although we assign it an arbitrary value, that value is derived from coca-cola's ability to sell coke. Comparing an investment in Coca-Cola with an investment in Bitcoin is a little bit misleading, Bitcoin exists in the air and the minds of those that have bought into it.

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Grant
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June 20, 2011, 11:27:31 AM
 #9

Do you now know how those young pioneers felt during the dot com bubble?


Yup, my dad lost all that he made during that .dcom bubble. I promised myself that i would not repeat his mistake. I sold almost all my bitcoins few days before "this mtgox event" when the longterm bull-trendline broke (exit at ~16$).

I'll buy in again either when this trend turns bullish again, or if bitcoins fall below $1.

chad
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June 20, 2011, 11:28:10 AM
 #10


Bitcoins are meaningless without perceived value, and that perceived value drops when people sell. If everyone begins selling, the first few sellers will make money. The market will realise things are going to pot and stop buying, people will try to sell at ever decreasing amounts, until everyone gives up on selling and just pray for things recover.


There is perceived (and real) value already.  Real real money is being invested and traded for Bitcoin and that will not change in the near future.  

There is enough believers, users, investors, traders, businesses and miners now already, today to not let a drop / blip in price decimate the entire market.

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mercybuckets
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June 20, 2011, 11:33:25 AM
 #11

I've read a lot of optimistic posts about Bitcoin - and a lot of pessimistic posts too.

As for me - I'm neither optimistic or pessimistic - just fascinated and enjoying the ride.

Bitcoin is one of the most interesting ideas I've come across for a long time and reading some of the posts in these forums is proving very educational.

I don't have a technical background so when I read about things like hashes, encryptions, SQL injections, blah blah blah then I have to go off and find out about them. So whatever happens with Bitcoin, it's enriching me.

At the moment, Bitcoin seems to me more like a commodity than a currency. I have only 0.02 Bitcoins, given to me by the nice folks at the Bitcoin faucet and my balance is likely to stay that way until:

  • I can earn Bitcoins in exchange for goods or labour and
  • I can exchange Bitcoins for goods and services I want

I don't have the resources to mine or the capital to buy and sell Bitcoins like stocks and shares - so I think I'll be a Bitcoin pauper for some time to come.
misterPaul
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June 20, 2011, 11:38:41 AM
 #12

Yup, my dad lost all that he made during that .dcom bubble. I promised myself that i would not repeat his mistake. I sold almost all my bitcoins few days before "this mtgox event" when the longterm bull-trendline broke (exit at ~16$).

I'll buy in again either when this trend turns bullish again, or if bitcoins fall below $1.

Congrats! Out of interest, how much did you make?

There is perceived (and real) value already.  Real real money is being invested and traded for Bitcoin and that will not change in the near future.  

There is enough believers, users, investors, traders, businesses and miners now already, today to not let a drop / blip in price decimate the entire market.

The investment of real money is being made based on the perceived value, this doesn't give Bitcoin real value.. and I don't see how you're in any place to say whether investing and trading in Bitcoin is going to change. How hard is it to destroy the perceived value of something which exists purely as perceived value? I have no idea, but I'm pretty sure you don't know either. Getting a bit Rose Tinted tbh.


EDIT:

I'm a bit at risk here of getting bogged down in terminology. All value is "perceived" value if you reduce it down to its core, however the "real" value generally comes from dependencies, from everything being linked - my loaf of bread is worth £1 which is worth 2 mars bars which is worth the same as a housing brick.

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June 20, 2011, 11:41:12 AM
 #13

Here is how I see bitcoins.

For miners it has two sides, acts as a commodity(mining then trading for profit)

For every other user it would be an currency, these users arnt into the whole trading aspect however they would like to offer services/buy services and have a exchange rate established for the service.

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misterPaul
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June 20, 2011, 11:47:06 AM
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Here is how I see bitcoins.

For miners it has two sides, acts as a commodity(mining then trading for profit)

For every other user it would be an currency, these users arnt into the whole trading aspect however they would like to offer services/buy services and have a exchange rate established for the service.

But the investment that generated the wealth never had any relation to something with substance. The value of a pound was developed through the demand for rare metals. The value of a bitcoin is being developed through the promise that tomorrow it'll be harder to acquire it than today, and the demand that naturally develops due to that. I'm very dubious about the long term appeal of telling people to buy now or tomorrow it'll be too late, especially if a mass drop in value happens (as will happen if people try to sell).

If everyone holds onto their Bitcoins and doesn't panic, things will probably be ok. But if a few of the big players get cold feet..

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Tasty Champa
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June 20, 2011, 11:48:12 AM
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a huge amount of people buy music, films, videogames, applications and whatever else through an appstore, and all of what they get is only ones and zeros.

Before that was cds, dvds, game cartridges and floppy disks, and they were just physical containers of ones and zeros.

For a very long time ones and zeros have been traded for money.

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June 20, 2011, 11:50:03 AM
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Congrats! Out of interest, how much did you make?


Thanks, i made more than i expected Smiley

I could have made double what i did if i didn't start daytrading, i'm a chicken trader i try to take profit/stoploss often, sometimes too often.

misterPaul
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June 20, 2011, 12:09:10 PM
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a huge amount of people buy music, films, videogames, applications and whatever else through an appstore, and all of what they get is only ones and zeros.

Before that was cds, dvds, game cartridges and floppy disks, and they were just physical containers of ones and zeros.

For a very long time ones and zeros have been traded for money.



Everything you've listed there has actual value to me; there's a benefit to me in acquiring those 1's and 0's. There's no direct benefit to acquiring bitcoin 1's and 0's, beyond what other people believe they are worth, and therefore what you can trade them to other people for. You still aren't getting this.

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June 20, 2011, 12:27:55 PM
 #18

I'm a newbie to Bitcoins, but am generally optimistic.  I'm not large-scale mining or trading, and have the grand total of 2BTC in my wallet so that might affect my view somewhat but...
The technology is interesting and sound.  Sure, there are teething problems as people learn more.  There are with any technologies.  Does anybody remember when .com and .net went offline for a while in the late 90's?  It didn't kill the internet - and a few problems caused by a sudden leap in interest in Bitcoins might not kill them.
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June 20, 2011, 12:48:09 PM
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Maybe we are excited to be part of something new.  I got into Bitcoin with no investment other than a few dollars for electricity.  Am I optimistic?  Hell yeah.  More merchants accept BTC every day.  If this keeps up who knows what could happen?

 Bitcoin is awesome, but that's my opinion Smiley  If you don't want to participate then GTFO.  It's as simple as that.  No one is forcing you to join up or come to the forums and make negative posts...

Bitcoins are meaningless without perceived value, and that perceived value drops when people sell. If everyone begins selling, the first few sellers will make money. The market will realise things are going to pot and stop buying, people will try to sell at ever decreasing amounts, until everyone gives up on selling and just pray for things recover.

After that, things will either begin to climb again as interest begins to increase in the currency, or the perceived value of the currency will be so damaged, that noone is willing to trade real world currency for it.

I'm not sure if your aggressiveness here is trying to discourage me from warning others of something you've already realised, or if you really are this naive.

Bitcoins are only meaningless to people that don't value them.  Just because you 'perceive' no value doesn't mean that they have no value to others.  You do not understand Bitcoin at all.  All you speak of is selling and investing in Bitcoin not spending as a consumer or accepting as a merchant.  There are many facets to the Bitcoin diamond.  All you are focusing on is one particular one.

You can post what you want, my aggressiveness is justified.  Your first post accused us of all having rose colored glasses or playing games with each other.  I'll say it again...if you don't like Bitcoin GTFO.


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misterPaul
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June 20, 2011, 12:59:32 PM
 #20

Maybe we are excited to be part of something new.  I got into Bitcoin with no investment other than a few dollars for electricity.  Am I optimistic?  Hell yeah.  More merchants accept BTC every day.  If this keeps up who knows what could happen?

 Bitcoin is awesome, but that's my opinion Smiley  If you don't want to participate then GTFO.  It's as simple as that.  No one is forcing you to join up or come to the forums and make negative posts...

Bitcoins are meaningless without perceived value, and that perceived value drops when people sell. If everyone begins selling, the first few sellers will make money. The market will realise things are going to pot and stop buying, people will try to sell at ever decreasing amounts, until everyone gives up on selling and just pray for things recover.

After that, things will either begin to climb again as interest begins to increase in the currency, or the perceived value of the currency will be so damaged, that noone is willing to trade real world currency for it.

I'm not sure if your aggressiveness here is trying to discourage me from warning others of something you've already realised, or if you really are this naive.

Bitcoins are only meaningless to people that don't value them.  Just because you 'perceive' no value doesn't mean that they have no value to others.  You do not understand Bitcoin at all.  All you speak of is selling and investing in Bitcoin not spending as a consumer or accepting as a merchant.  There are many facets to the Bitcoin diamond.  All you are focusing on is one particular one.

You can post what you want, my aggressiveness is justified.  Your first post accused us of all having rose colored glasses or playing games with each other.  I'll say it again...if you don't like Bitcoin GTFO.



To paraphrase.. "Bitcoins only have value to people that perceive value in them" Huh?

Did you read this sentence before you posted it? The perceived value of Bitcoin is in reference to all areas of its trading, from spending as a consumer, to accepting as a merchant.. it's all the same market value (unless something has gone very wrong and the market is splintered). I'm focusing on this perceived value, as it represents everything that is the economy. If Bitcoins had no equivalent value in goods and other currencies, it'd be a pretty pointless currency.

Your defence for something you're obviously very keen on is admirable, but I'm really not sure what your point is here. Yes you have a perceived value of the currency, but if no one else in the world agrees with you, you're basically dreaming. Sure, at the moment it's a shared dream between quite a few people, and a nice dream it is too. Whether that converts into mass appeal, or a few of the larger holders get cold feet, is yet to be seen.

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