What is going on? Trading volume is so low!

[Rampion]

I'll be curious to hear your opinion plz? Are you suggesting btc trading has a 45% fail rate?

Im refferring to this: http://news.yahoo.com/study-shows-45-bitcoin-exchanges-end-failing-173543597.html
45% of Bitcoin trading exchanges fail, often taking customers money with them. I feel it is safer to do my trading through a FSA regulated broker and many serious traders agree with me.

If you are not in the US see my signature for more info on how to get some nice bonuses 

The opportunity comes with a cost, and anyhow Gox is reliable enough if you use 2FA.

And the fundamental thing is that trading paper scams is nowhere near holding the real thing

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[Questing]

I look at the larger picture though beyond the day trade. Simply holding your BTC could make you a very rich person as governments and banks continue to implode. We have already seen an example of people flocking to Bitcoin with the Cyprus mess, and now Argentinians are getting on board as the Peso crumbles at 25% inflation per year (!!!). The exodus from fiat has only just begun, thanks to the news people are waking up to the fact there is a way out that never existed until now.

The buy in is higher now, but the eventual end game will make that $100/BTC look like nothing when it crests $1000s as banking exiles find a new home in crypto-currency as trust in the fiat system continues its epic decline to irrelevance.

We are the pioneers of the most massive paradigm shift the world has ever seen. Hold on to your butts when the fiat stock markets go straight into the ground a little later this year probably taking the rest of the world with it, and that is happening right now as it reaches the level it did right before the 2002 and 2008 crashes. Real economists not controlled by NewsCorp see it coming, as the stock trade is booming, while real world economics paint a whole different picture of what is really going on. Several nations are on the brink of total collapse, any market quiver will spell the end at this point, and it cannot simply be "fixed" by Bernake's magic money press this time.

I truly believe Bitcoin may very well be the last working economies left, and soon.

The crazy thing is, nobody can say with certainty that your not right. I love the idea of moving toward btc, and away from gov and bank controls. But I cannot see such a dramatic shift as you propose, without some massive pain. There might even be some extreme and undesirable consequences.
Like the Chinese proverb " may you live in interesting times". Yay, like the potato famine, or world wars. Lets hope things dont get too interesting, to quickly.

Indeed. What happens next is both exciting and terrifying at the same time. Obviously I can't know for sure what will happen, but we're headed for something big I think.

Chimerica! So USA have paid and owe massive sums of US dollars to china. More than can be paid back. And China have become massively dependent on the US$, as they have piles of it, and are owed piles more. They're both locked in this position, headed for a date when USA will default on its loans. So what happens next? Well, maybe Americans deserting the US dollar for btc makes the US$ worthless, and US dept to China basically evaporates. So if China see this happening, the only thing they can do other than start a war, is rush to btc also, exchange their US dollars for btc while they still can. China are already buying gold to reduce dependency on US$, so it seams they are already thinking along these lines.

Could this happen? Could governments have incentives to embrace btc as the financial systems erode and collapse? First they ignore it, then they fight it, then they embrace it whole heartily.

We assume Governments will always oppose btc because it undermines their control. But their system has become a monster, which is out of its cage and out of their control. Btc might solve some of their economic problems, and give them something great to take credit for. Help them win those all important votes

[Seal]

Since the DDOS yesterday, MtGox turned off API support for anything calling the older https://mtgox.com/api pages and is now only allowing orders to be placed through their data.mtgox.com url calls.

I haven't looked on the forum much but didnt see this announced anywhere. Over the next few days I imagine others who run bots will pick up on this, fix their code and re-start their bots.

*edit* To clarify, I believe the API functions to query order response / account data were changed.

Plz forgive my ignorance. Are the bots hostile toward Mtgox?

No, when I talk about bots, I mean the scripts that are written to trade on mtgox through their API. These scripts usually trade high volume (much more volume than users using the website interface).

[Questing]

Since the DDOS yesterday, MtGox turned off API support for anything calling the older https://mtgox.com/api pages and is now only allowing orders to be placed through their data.mtgox.com url calls.

I haven't looked on the forum much but didnt see this announced anywhere. Over the next few days I imagine others who run bots will pick up on this, fix their code and re-start their bots.

*edit* To clarify, I believe the API functions to query order response / account data were changed.

Plz forgive my ignorance. Are the bots hostile toward Mtgox?

No, when I talk about bots, I mean the scripts that are written to trade on mtgox through their API. These scripts usually trade high volume (much more volume than users using the website interface).

Why do they use these bots? Do they analyzing data, and buying and selling btc automatically?

[notme]

Since the DDOS yesterday, MtGox turned off API support for anything calling the older https://mtgox.com/api pages and is now only allowing orders to be placed through their data.mtgox.com url calls.

I haven't looked on the forum much but didnt see this announced anywhere. Over the next few days I imagine others who run bots will pick up on this, fix their code and re-start their bots.

*edit* To clarify, I believe the API functions to query order response / account data were changed.

Plz forgive my ignorance. Are the bots hostile toward Mtgox?

No, when I talk about bots, I mean the scripts that are written to trade on mtgox through their API. These scripts usually trade high volume (much more volume than users using the website interface).

Why do they use these bots? Do they analyzing data, and buying and selling btc automatically?

I run a market making bot.  It maintains orders on both sides of the book at 1.3% intervals.  When my buy orders are filled, it places a sell 1.3% higher.  When my sell orders are filled, it places a buy 1.3% lower.  I lose out when it trends continuously, but it stabilizes price and I turn a profit when the bulls and bears duke it out.  By keeping orders on the book, I help make it possible for companies like bitpay that need to accurately price and immediately convert bitcoins to USD and companies like bitinstant and coinbase that need to go the other way.

[Babylon]

No one wants to buy so high. Price will drop. Unfortunatelly I am a bull at higher levels...

or, nobody wants to sell so low.

[Questing]

Since the DDOS yesterday, MtGox turned off API support for anything calling the older https://mtgox.com/api pages and is now only allowing orders to be placed through their data.mtgox.com url calls.

I haven't looked on the forum much but didnt see this announced anywhere. Over the next few days I imagine others who run bots will pick up on this, fix their code and re-start their bots.

*edit* To clarify, I believe the API functions to query order response / account data were changed.

Plz forgive my ignorance. Are the bots hostile toward Mtgox?

No, when I talk about bots, I mean the scripts that are written to trade on mtgox through their API. These scripts usually trade high volume (much more volume than users using the website interface).

Why do they use these bots? Do they analyzing data, and buying and selling btc automatically?

I run a market making bot.  It maintains orders on both sides of the book at 1.3% intervals.  When my buy orders are filled, it places a sell 1.3% higher.  When my sell orders are filled, it places a buy 1.3% lower.  I lose out when it trends continuously, but it stabilizes price and I turn a profit when the bulls and bears duke it out.  By keeping orders on the book, I help make it possible for companies like bitpay that need to accurately price and immediately convert bitcoins to USD and companies like bitinstant and coinbase that need to go the other way.

That is genuinely fascinating. Thanks for telling us how your operation works. Now here's a man who knows how percentages work. Do you mind if I ask a question plz? How efficient is the following trading method? Use the MACD to mark buy and sells, and when there is uncertainly or very weak trends, go half in. Basically hedge both ways. Is this an ok method? any suggestions would be appreciated plz?
1.3% intervals is obviously a figure you've arrived at after a great deal of trial?

[notme]

Since the DDOS yesterday, MtGox turned off API support for anything calling the older https://mtgox.com/api pages and is now only allowing orders to be placed through their data.mtgox.com url calls.

I haven't looked on the forum much but didnt see this announced anywhere. Over the next few days I imagine others who run bots will pick up on this, fix their code and re-start their bots.

*edit* To clarify, I believe the API functions to query order response / account data were changed.

Plz forgive my ignorance. Are the bots hostile toward Mtgox?

No, when I talk about bots, I mean the scripts that are written to trade on mtgox through their API. These scripts usually trade high volume (much more volume than users using the website interface).

Why do they use these bots? Do they analyzing data, and buying and selling btc automatically?

I run a market making bot.  It maintains orders on both sides of the book at 1.3% intervals.  When my buy orders are filled, it places a sell 1.3% higher.  When my sell orders are filled, it places a buy 1.3% lower.  I lose out when it trends continuously, but it stabilizes price and I turn a profit when the bulls and bears duke it out.  By keeping orders on the book, I help make it possible for companies like bitpay that need to accurately price and immediately convert bitcoins to USD and companies like bitinstant and coinbase that need to go the other way.

That is genuinely fascinating. Thanks for telling us how your operation works. Now here's a man who knows how percentages work. Do you mind if I ask a question plz? How efficient is the following trading method? Use the MACD to mark buy and sells, and when there is uncertainly or very weak trends, go half in. Basically hedge both ways. Is this an ok method? any suggestions would be appreciated plz?
1.3% intervals is obviously a figure you've arrived at after a great deal of trial?

I'm not sure I'd trust a single signal to trade on.  If you're looking for something simple, a balancing strategy is decent.  Basically, you keep 50% of your value in bitcoin and 50% in USD and rebalance once a week or so to maintain the ratio.  Obviously, you can use any ratio you want.  Keep a little more in bitcoin when things look bullish, keep a little more in fiat when you're bearish.

[dree12]

Since the DDOS yesterday, MtGox turned off API support for anything calling the older https://mtgox.com/api pages and is now only allowing orders to be placed through their data.mtgox.com url calls.

I haven't looked on the forum much but didnt see this announced anywhere. Over the next few days I imagine others who run bots will pick up on this, fix their code and re-start their bots.

*edit* To clarify, I believe the API functions to query order response / account data were changed.

Plz forgive my ignorance. Are the bots hostile toward Mtgox?

No, when I talk about bots, I mean the scripts that are written to trade on mtgox through their API. These scripts usually trade high volume (much more volume than users using the website interface).

Why do they use these bots? Do they analyzing data, and buying and selling XBT automatically?

I run a market making bot.  It maintains orders on both sides of the book at 1.3% intervals.  When my buy orders are filled, it places a sell 1.3% higher.  When my sell orders are filled, it places a buy 1.3% lower.  I lose out when it trends continuously, but it stabilizes price and I turn a profit when the bulls and bears duke it out.  By keeping orders on the book, I help make it possible for companies like bitpay that need to accurately price and immediately convert bitcoins to USD and companies like bitinstant and coinbase that need to go the other way.

That is genuinely fascinating. Thanks for telling us how your operation works. Now here's a man who knows how percentages work. Do you mind if I ask a question plz? How efficient is the following trading method? Use the MACD to mark buy and sells, and when there is uncertainly or very weak trends, go half in. Basically hedge both ways. Is this an ok method? any suggestions would be appreciated plz?
1.3% intervals is obviously a figure you've arrived at after a great deal of trial?

I'm not sure I'd trust a single signal to trade on.  If you're looking for something simple, a balancing strategy is decent.  Basically, you keep 50% of your value in bitcoin and 50% in USD and rebalance once a week or so to maintain the ratio.  Obviously, you can use any ratio you want.  Keep a little more in bitcoin when things look bullish, keep a little more in fiat when you're bearish.

Does this strategy work for you?

I have a collection of bot strategies that I simulate with Mt. Gox data. I manually tune the bots with "subsidies" or "taxes" depending on success, so I can discern which bot is the best. The "communist" strategy effectively does what you state (tries to maintain a 1:1 ratio of value), and it is among the bots which require the most "subsidies" to continue operating.

[notme]

Since the DDOS yesterday, MtGox turned off API support for anything calling the older https://mtgox.com/api pages and is now only allowing orders to be placed through their data.mtgox.com url calls.

I haven't looked on the forum much but didnt see this announced anywhere. Over the next few days I imagine others who run bots will pick up on this, fix their code and re-start their bots.

*edit* To clarify, I believe the API functions to query order response / account data were changed.

Plz forgive my ignorance. Are the bots hostile toward Mtgox?

No, when I talk about bots, I mean the scripts that are written to trade on mtgox through their API. These scripts usually trade high volume (much more volume than users using the website interface).

Why do they use these bots? Do they analyzing data, and buying and selling XBT automatically?

I run a market making bot.  It maintains orders on both sides of the book at 1.3% intervals.  When my buy orders are filled, it places a sell 1.3% higher.  When my sell orders are filled, it places a buy 1.3% lower.  I lose out when it trends continuously, but it stabilizes price and I turn a profit when the bulls and bears duke it out.  By keeping orders on the book, I help make it possible for companies like bitpay that need to accurately price and immediately convert bitcoins to USD and companies like bitinstant and coinbase that need to go the other way.

That is genuinely fascinating. Thanks for telling us how your operation works. Now here's a man who knows how percentages work. Do you mind if I ask a question plz? How efficient is the following trading method? Use the MACD to mark buy and sells, and when there is uncertainly or very weak trends, go half in. Basically hedge both ways. Is this an ok method? any suggestions would be appreciated plz?
1.3% intervals is obviously a figure you've arrived at after a great deal of trial?

I'm not sure I'd trust a single signal to trade on.  If you're looking for something simple, a balancing strategy is decent.  Basically, you keep 50% of your value in bitcoin and 50% in USD and rebalance once a week or so to maintain the ratio.  Obviously, you can use any ratio you want.  Keep a little more in bitcoin when things look bullish, keep a little more in fiat when you're bearish.

Does this strategy work for you?

I have a collection of bot strategies that I simulate with Mt. Gox data. I manually tune the bots with "subsidies" or "taxes" depending on success, so I can discern which bot is the best. The "communist" strategy effectively does what you state (tries to maintain a 1:1 ratio of value), and it is among the bots which require the most "subsidies" to continue operating.

Fees will eat at you if you rebalance too often.  Once a week is the most often I'd recommend, once a month might even be more reasonable.  Not really a run all the time bot.  If you want to bot it, just have it run once a month.

[Questing]

Since the DDOS yesterday, MtGox turned off API support for anything calling the older https://mtgox.com/api pages and is now only allowing orders to be placed through their data.mtgox.com url calls.

I haven't looked on the forum much but didnt see this announced anywhere. Over the next few days I imagine others who run bots will pick up on this, fix their code and re-start their bots.

*edit* To clarify, I believe the API functions to query order response / account data were changed.

Plz forgive my ignorance. Are the bots hostile toward Mtgox?

No, when I talk about bots, I mean the scripts that are written to trade on mtgox through their API. These scripts usually trade high volume (much more volume than users using the website interface).

Why do they use these bots? Do they analyzing data, and buying and selling btc automatically?

I run a market making bot.  It maintains orders on both sides of the book at 1.3% intervals.  When my buy orders are filled, it places a sell 1.3% higher.  When my sell orders are filled, it places a buy 1.3% lower.  I lose out when it trends continuously, but it stabilizes price and I turn a profit when the bulls and bears duke it out.  By keeping orders on the book, I help make it possible for companies like bitpay that need to accurately price and immediately convert bitcoins to USD and companies like bitinstant and coinbase that need to go the other way.

That is genuinely fascinating. Thanks for telling us how your operation works. Now here's a man who knows how percentages work. Do you mind if I ask a question plz? How efficient is the following trading method? Use the MACD to mark buy and sells, and when there is uncertainly or very weak trends, go half in. Basically hedge both ways. Is this an ok method? any suggestions would be appreciated plz?
1.3% intervals is obviously a figure you've arrived at after a great deal of trial?

I'm not sure I'd trust a single signal to trade on.  If you're looking for something simple, a balancing strategy is decent.  Basically, you keep 50% of your value in bitcoin and 50% in USD and rebalance once a week or so to maintain the ratio.  Obviously, you can use any ratio you want.  Keep a little more in bitcoin when things look bullish, keep a little more in fiat when you're bearish.

I wouldn't rely solely on one indicator. But MACD might be a primary, and refer to others to paint a more detailed picture. I've only been learning about indicators the last few days, so have a lot to learn.
I have no idea where to start with bots. Where to get one, or how to use it. I'm curious about such things, but probably dont have enough time or money to invest in btc to make it worth while. Or is it simpler than I might think?
Thanks again for your advice. I have some work to do on my trading method, and your a big help

[Zaih]

Everyone's finally calmed down.. Hopefully stability that we've seen over the last few days is maintained. Price needs to calm down a bit

[UltimateReaper]

Everyone's finally calmed down.. Hopefully stability that we've seen over the last few days is maintained. Price needs to calm down a bit

Yeah right. This is BTC

[notig]

My thoughts are if the price can't crash downwards it will crash upwards first

but........

I am betting that by the end of the year bitcoin will be worth just $60

(betting nothing though)

nobody is going to be willing to keep millions of dollars on the exchange if the price isn't going up adequately (and is in fact going down)

it's too risky to keep a lot of money on I think.

I'm a bear now.

[bonker]

What is going on? Trading volume is so low!
And by the way, the Australian government has announced it is thinking about printing more AUS dollars, to devalue its currency. But that's off topic. Please let us know your opinion, why is trading volume at an all time low?

I'm thinking summer time slump. Same thing happens in the stock market, everyone's too busy enjoying the sun/on holiday to trade.

[Questing]

My thoughts are if the price can't crash downwards it will crash upwards first

but........

I am betting that by the end of the year bitcoin will be worth just $60

(betting nothing though)

nobody is going to be willing to keep millions of dollars on the exchange if the price isn't going up adequately (and is in fact going down)

it's too risky to keep a lot of money on I think.

I'm a bear now.

Crash upwards! I like that  
$60? Personally I hope so. then it can run right up again.
Big money risky on the exchange. Quite right. But it hasn't stopped people before! But you make a fare point
I'll reserve the right to change my mind. But I have money on the exchange, and I'm willing to bet it all. Quadruple or nothing!! Guess that makes me a bull

[Questing]

What is going on? Trading volume is so low!
And by the way, the Australian government has announced it is thinking about printing more AUS dollars, to devalue its currency. But that's off topic. Please let us know your opinion, why is trading volume at an all time low?

I'm thinking summer time slump. Same thing happens in the stock market, everyone's too busy enjoying the sun/on holiday to trade.

But its winter down here in Oz. So we'll pick up the slack. I'll be rugged up warm indoors with my computer

[darkmule]

Yes, I understand your feeling, and I concur. I'd rather buy Bitcoin at $50. But in very recent history, stacks of people spent plus US$120 on bitcoin, and not long before that US$160. So now its US$110, why is volume so low?

Because price is stagnant.  People trade in high volumes when they're either exuberant that the price is going up or panicking because it's going down.  People are just adopting a "hold" position.  If the price starts fluctuating a lot again, there will be more volume.

[Seal]

Since the DDOS yesterday, MtGox turned off API support for anything calling the older https://mtgox.com/api pages and is now only allowing orders to be placed through their data.mtgox.com url calls.

I haven't looked on the forum much but didnt see this announced anywhere. Over the next few days I imagine others who run bots will pick up on this, fix their code and re-start their bots.

*edit* To clarify, I believe the API functions to query order response / account data were changed.

Plz forgive my ignorance. Are the bots hostile toward Mtgox?

No, when I talk about bots, I mean the scripts that are written to trade on mtgox through their API. These scripts usually trade high volume (much more volume than users using the website interface).

Why do they use these bots? Do they analyzing data, and buying and selling btc automatically?

I run a market making bot.  It maintains orders on both sides of the book at 1.3% intervals.  When my buy orders are filled, it places a sell 1.3% higher.  When my sell orders are filled, it places a buy 1.3% lower.  I lose out when it trends continuously, but it stabilizes price and I turn a profit when the bulls and bears duke it out.  By keeping orders on the book, I help make it possible for companies like bitpay that need to accurately price and immediately convert bitcoins to USD and companies like bitinstant and coinbase that need to go the other way.

That is genuinely fascinating. Thanks for telling us how your operation works. Now here's a man who knows how percentages work. Do you mind if I ask a question plz? How efficient is the following trading method? Use the MACD to mark buy and sells, and when there is uncertainly or very weak trends, go half in. Basically hedge both ways. Is this an ok method? any suggestions would be appreciated plz?
1.3% intervals is obviously a figure you've arrived at after a great deal of trial?

I'm not sure I'd trust a single signal to trade on.  If you're looking for something simple, a balancing strategy is decent.  Basically, you keep 50% of your value in bitcoin and 50% in USD and rebalance once a week or so to maintain the ratio.  Obviously, you can use any ratio you want.  Keep a little more in bitcoin when things look bullish, keep a little more in fiat when you're bearish.

I wouldn't rely solely on one indicator. But MACD might be a primary, and refer to others to paint a more detailed picture. I've only been learning about indicators the last few days, so have a lot to learn.
I have no idea where to start with bots. Where to get one, or how to use it. I'm curious about such things, but probably dont have enough time or money to invest in btc to make it worth while. Or is it simpler than I might think?
Thanks again for your advice. I have some work to do on my trading method, and your a big help

Questing, you should look up technical analysis. A lot of bots will do this. I used to run a number of bots, one which ran arbitrage across a few brokers averaging out the price across them and others which used technical analysis. They are / can be very very successful if you know what you are doing. There is a lot of potential to make a lot of money doing this still. I turned my bots off recently to concentrate on other bitcoin projects, all funded using the profits I made bot trading.


notme: did you have to update your code recently with all the mtgox api changes? my scripts were caught out a number of times by mtgox upgrading their api. Last week it was them turning off anything sending orders to their non data.mtgox.com url.

[Prattler]

I run a market making bot.  It maintains orders on both sides of the book at 1.3% intervals.  When my buy orders are filled, it places a sell 1.3% higher.  When my sell orders are filled, it places a buy 1.3% lower.  I lose out when it trends continuously, but it stabilizes price and I turn a profit when the bulls and bears duke it out.  By keeping orders on the book, I help make it possible for companies like bitpay that need to accurately price and immediately convert bitcoins to USD and companies like bitinstant and coinbase that need to go the other way.

Good job man! If a bunch of people did this, bitcoin would be stable as a rock!

I'm trying to be a market maker, too, just with a slightly different strategy. Best thing is, it's not charity! Market makers earn profits (buy low, sell high) as a reward for the service they do to the system (stability)!