The China Hype Fades Away

[ThatDGuy]

China is coming... the quote below is what its like to really invest.  Especially a year ago when (like China now) service was thinner. 

tl;dr: It takes a month+ to do more then just stick your toe in.

I also think that a lot of you old timers mis-estimate the time and effort it takes for a noobie to bootstrap.  It goes something like this:

1. Read about it, overcome the negative stigma that comes with SR, gambling, etc.
2. Make a small investment using bitinstant (edit: or direct person 2 person, etc)
3. Learn a ton about the banking system, chargebacks, how FED creates $.
4. Ask all the noobie questions "why can't someone just [print more bitcoins, steal your wallet, turn off the network, make it illegal]".  What's it backed by anyway? :-)
5. Read enough about it to stress about all the scammers hacked wallets and failed exchanges, etc.
6. Start the KYC process with an exchange that has about 5000 totally obscure and difficult to use ways to deposit money.
7. Tortuously move small chunks of fiat into the exchange
8. start buying
9. freak out about failed exchanges, possibility of USB stick failure, etc
10. start looking at paper/brain wallets
11. Get your head around the idea of actually holding your own money somewhere
12. Create isolated new install VM to make a paper wallet.  You can't outsource this to some client-side web script (if you really want a secure wallet)!
13. TEST the paper wallet concept (requires an entire blockchain sync from scratch).
14. KYC finally comes through!
15. DAMMIT price has doubled :-)

This was my path anyway...

For HNWIs its got to happen with both them AND their advisor (who's gonna do all the work).

So people who might have gotten interested in bitcoin during the Euro financial uncertainty may just now be starting to move from a few hundred BTC trial investment to an actual acquisition strategy.

This is very accurate. Process is slow.

YES!  This is how it is!  If someone can make an easier way for the average person to get into BTC there will be no stopping it.  Sure there is a learning curve at the beginning, but once we choose to invest it still takes so long and is very frustrating.  I have a friend that wanted to buy but never did because it was too complicated.  She is very smart too and somewhat comfortable with technology, but just getting cash into BTC is not easy.  I would probably have invested even more if it was easier to do so. 

It will certainly help, but honestly I don't think I would believe in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general as much if I hadn't spent that much time wrapping my head around them.

Short term, though,you're absolutely right: being able to get money in and out easier would (and will!) mean the future bubbles or hype cycles are potentially huge...

[dancupid]

the graph is deceptive
here is the search but for year 2013
https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%E6%AF%94%E7%89%B9%E5%B8%81&date=1%2F2013%2012m&cmpt=q
everything changes.

Google is not a good indicator as it is blocked in China

Google is not blocked in China

Chinese people don't typically use Google though (I live in Shanghai) - Baidu is the search engine of choice.
Though the Google trends stats is obviously still a good indicator

[RationalSpeculator]

It's not necessarily a bad thing.  The average Chinese speculator chases bubble like everyone else, but with special zeal and gusto.  If they don't get rich quick on bitcoins they'll find something else to inflate.

Example.  The garlic bubble of 2010:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jul/30/garlic-chinese-commodity-bubble

There were media reports from the time of speculators buying truckloads of garlic and hoarding them, hoping to get rich quick.  The whole bubble popped of course and the speculators rightfully got burned.

That's fun I didn't know that happened. Some of the Chinese aren't much wiser than 17th century dutch people. Thanks for sharing.

Makes me think of Hugh Hendry too: 'thou shalt not invest in overcapacity!'

[bootlace]

the graph is deceptive
here is the search but for year 2013
https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%E6%AF%94%E7%89%B9%E5%B8%81&date=1%2F2013%2012m&cmpt=q
everything changes.

Google is not a good indicator as it is blocked in China

Google is not blocked in China

Chinese people don't typically use Google though (I live in Shanghai) - Baidu is the search engine of choice.
Though the Google trends stats is obviously still a good indicator

You're right about Google not being popular over there, lived in Shanghai 5 years myself.

[oda.krell]

Are you kidding?

It's been 6 days, everyone who downloaded the wallet, they probably still have another good 8 months until the blockchain finishes downloading. Hang in there, the China wave is coming, and it will be huge!

This... this is hypnotic. I've been watching it now for 5 about minutes straight. In not entirely unrelated news, I have the weirdest boner right now.

[Rampion]

China is coming... the quote below is what its like to really invest.  Especially a year ago when (like China now) service was thinner. 

tl;dr: It takes a month+ to do more then just stick your toe in.

I also think that a lot of you old timers mis-estimate the time and effort it takes for a noobie to bootstrap.  It goes something like this:

1. Read about it, overcome the negative stigma that comes with SR, gambling, etc.
2. Make a small investment using bitinstant (edit: or direct person 2 person, etc)
3. Learn a ton about the banking system, chargebacks, how FED creates $.
4. Ask all the noobie questions "why can't someone just [print more bitcoins, steal your wallet, turn off the network, make it illegal]".  What's it backed by anyway? :-)
5. Read enough about it to stress about all the scammers hacked wallets and failed exchanges, etc.
6. Start the KYC process with an exchange that has about 5000 totally obscure and difficult to use ways to deposit money.
7. Tortuously move small chunks of fiat into the exchange
8. start buying
9. freak out about failed exchanges, possibility of USB stick failure, etc
10. start looking at paper/brain wallets
11. Get your head around the idea of actually holding your own money somewhere
12. Create isolated new install VM to make a paper wallet.  You can't outsource this to some client-side web script (if you really want a secure wallet)!
13. TEST the paper wallet concept (requires an entire blockchain sync from scratch).
14. KYC finally comes through!
15. DAMMIT price has doubled :-)

This was my path anyway...

For HNWIs its got to happen with both them AND their advisor (who's gonna do all the work).

So people who might have gotten interested in bitcoin during the Euro financial uncertainty may just now be starting to move from a few hundred BTC trial investment to an actual acquisition strategy.

This is very accurate. Process is slow.

YES!  This is how it is!  If someone can make an easier way for the average person to get into BTC there will be no stopping it.  Sure there is a learning curve at the beginning, but once we choose to invest it still takes so long and is very frustrating.  I have a friend that wanted to buy but never did because it was too complicated.  She is very smart too and somewhat comfortable with technology, but just getting cash into BTC is not easy.  I would probably have invested even more if it was easier to do so. 

It will certainly help, but honestly I don't think I would believe in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general as much if I hadn't spent that much time wrapping my head around them.

Short term, though,you're absolutely right: being able to get money in and out easier would (and will!) mean the future bubbles or hype cycles are potentially huge...

Both points are entirely correct.

I guess that everybody with a few Bitcoins, even if they where bought in the middle of the bubble, a verified account and some fiat in an exchange can rightfully call himself an "early adopter" 

[gogxmagog]

The feeling I get is more Chinese will mine BTC rather than purchase it outright. esp at these current prices. so, most likely lots more BTC going into circulation. we will have to see, wont we.

[bitcon]

Are you kidding?

It's been 6 days, everyone who downloaded the wallet, they probably still have another good 8 months until the blockchain finishes downloading. Hang in there, the China wave is coming, and it will be huge!

This... this is hypnotic. I've been watching it now for 5 about minutes straight. In not entirely unrelated news, I have the weirdest boner right now.

boners on the rise, BTCh falling....

[cbeast]

China has more Bitcoin mining going on than any other country. Looks pretty popular to me.
http://blockchain.info/nodes-globe

[randrace]

Speak for yourself, I am still pumped.

[Zaih]

Obviously nothing amazing was going to come of it instantly. Give it some time fella's.

[Crazy]

ITT everyone acts like thousands of people weren't just burned by a massive bubble that still hasn't fully corrected, and the "new" Asian investors aren't able to see this and act with extreme caution (or take no action at all).

[Zaih]

ITT everyone acts like thousands of people weren't just burned by a massive bubble that still hasn't fully corrected, and the "new" Asian investors aren't able to see this and act with extreme caution (or take no action at all).

ITT: People trying to manipulate price*

[Crazy]

That too

[randrace]

Congrats! This  thread has now surpassed Please stop with the China hype in page views, making it the second most viewed thread with the words China and Hype in the title! Look out, For those who still doubt China is a hype, your days are numbered!!!

[lophie]

Are you kidding?

It's been 6 days, everyone who downloaded the wallet, they probably still have another good 8 months until the blockchain finishes downloading. Hang in there, the China wave is coming, and it will be huge!

This... this is hypnotic. I've been watching it now for 5 about minutes straight. In not entirely unrelated news, I have the weirdest boner right now.

I know right!!! This chick is so hot I almost put a sell order instead of a buy order!

[lysr]

ITT everyone acts like thousands of people weren't just burned by a massive bubble that still hasn't fully corrected, and the "new" Asian investors aren't able to see this and act with extreme caution (or take no action at all).

+1

[BitPirate]

China hype fades away... maybe... Price looks fine though.

About 3 new China BTC exchanges have been launched in the past week. Should give you some idea of the interest.

And the best one is yet to launch ;-) Link is probably being announced tomorrow -- PM me if you want a preview.

[viboracecata]

Do you guys know how Chinese fought for the gold price downturn? Especially many many grandpas and grandmas...

If we can teach them bitcoins are better than gold, then you will laugh to wake.

[lysr]

Do you guys know how Chinese fought for the gold price downturn? Especially many many grandpas and grandmas...

If we can teach them bitcoins are better than gold, then you will laugh to wake.

Good luck with teaching the grandpas and grandmas what Bitcoin is, helping them with the hassle of downloading a 10gb blockchain and persuading them to buy something that does not really exist. The Chinese people in the last generation are very conservative and undereducated, they still believe in the lies from the CCP and chairman Mao, do you really expect them to buy a Bitcoin? Yes, but only when the CCP or chairman Mao asks them.